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碳酸锂日评:持仓注意保护,不宜过度看空-20250905
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 07:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - On September 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rebounded after hitting a low. The spot market had fair trading volume, and the basis premium decreased. The cost side saw an increase in the price of spodumene concentrate and a decrease in the price of lepidolite. The supply side witnessed a rise in lithium carbonate production last week, with a slight increase in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased last week, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, the 3C shipments were average, and the scheduled production of energy storage batteries increased in September. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 34,948 (+830) tons, and the social inventory decreased. Considering all factors, with good profits, high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and decreasing social inventory, the short - term supply and demand both strengthened. The impact from the Jiangxi mine end has been eliminated, and the short - term fundamentals have not changed much. The market is still easily affected by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, appropriately buy options to protect positions, and take appropriate profit - taking on the previously bought straddle options. [1] Summary According to Related Information Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 73,000 yuan/ton, that of the consecutive - one contract was 73,340 yuan/ton, the consecutive - two contract was 73,580 yuan/ton, and the consecutive - three contract was 77,700 yuan/ton. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 712,151 (+269,351) lots, and the open interest was 353,674 (+7,626) lots. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 34,948 (+830) tons. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 340 yuan/ton, the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 440 yuan/ton. The basis was 1,580 yuan/ton. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 yuan/ton, and the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 874 US dollars/ton. [1] Industry News - **Salt Lake Mining Rights**: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) responded during a research reception that the current mining rights compliance inspection is a new trend of stricter industry supervision, reflecting the strict control of the regulatory authorities over the compliance of lithium resource development and utilization activities. The company's mining business is fully compliant, and its production and operation are running stably. - **Ioneer's Project**: Ioneer reduced the leaching time and increased the plant output. The economic viability of its Rhyolite Ridge project in Nevada has been substantially improved. The updated mine plan shows that the unlevered net present value of the mine increased by 38% to $1.89 billion, and the unlevered internal rate of return rose to 16.8%. From the third to the twenty - fifth year, the annual production of lithium carbonate equivalent increased by 20% to 255,000 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate increased by 9% to 126,700 tons. The estimated all - sustaining cash cost of lithium carbonate equivalent is $5,626/ton, and the ore throughput increased by 25% from 2.4 million tons per year to 3 million tons per year. - **Kodal Minerals' Project**: Kodal Minerals obtained an export license for the spodumene concentrate produced from its Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali. The initial export volume is 125,000 tons, but the final administrative steps in the export process need to be completed. [1]
实探丨宁德时代宜春锂云母矿准时停产,有人深夜上山蹲守!
证券时报· 2025-08-11 10:13
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments surrounding the lithium mining operations of Ningde Times in the Jiangxi Yichun region, particularly focusing on the status of the Jiangxia Wokeng mining area and its impact on lithium carbonate prices. Group 1: Mining Operations and Regulatory Issues - Eight lithium mining companies in Jiangxi Yichun are required to complete reserve verification reports by the end of September, which has created market speculation affecting lithium carbonate prices [3][25]. - Ningde Times' Jiangxia Wokeng mining rights, which began on August 9, 2022, are set to expire on August 9, 2025, and the company has submitted renewal application materials [3][5]. - Despite market concerns, Ningde Times has stated that operations at the Jiangxia Wokeng mining area are normal and that they are optimistic about the renewal of their mining rights [5][19]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Fluctuations - The mining area is one of the largest lithium mica mines in the Yichun region, with a recoverable reserve of 77,492 million tons and a production capacity of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [13][14]. - Recent fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices have been significant, with prices rising from 58,400 yuan/ton to 80,500 yuan/ton between June 23 and July 25, marking a 36.71% increase, followed by a drop back to approximately 68,000 yuan/ton by August 5 [26]. - The market reacted strongly to the news of the mining area’s potential shutdown, with a notable increase in lithium carbonate futures prices following the announcement of the mining halt [29]. Group 3: Operational Insights and Future Prospects - The Jiangxia Wokeng mining area has a significant investment of 2.158 billion yuan and is expected to have a service life of approximately 25.83 years based on a production scale of 30 million tons per year [13]. - Ningde Times has established a comprehensive lithium supply chain in Yichun, including mining, flotation, and smelting facilities, with a total investment of around 13.5 billion yuan for a new lithium battery production base [28]. - The company has faced challenges due to fluctuating lithium prices, with production costs estimated at around 100,000 yuan/ton, leading to temporary shutdowns in the past when prices fell significantly [29].
宁德时代宜春锂矿因采矿权到期停止作业,官方回应:影响不大
Ju Chao Zi Xun· 2025-08-11 03:56
Core Viewpoint - The mining operations of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of CATL, have been suspended due to the expiration of the mining license, which was not renewed in time, but the company claims this will not significantly impact overall operations [3][5]. Group 1: Company Operations - The mining license for the Zhenkouli-Fengxin County mining area expired on August 9, 2023, leading to a halt in operations on August 10 [3][4]. - CATL is currently processing the renewal application for the mining license and aims to resume production as soon as approval is granted [3][4]. - The Zhenkouli-Fengxin County mining area is one of the largest lithium mica mines in the Yichun region, with a mining right that began on August 9, 2022, and is set to expire on August 9, 2025 [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The suspension of operations at the mine is expected to affect approximately 8% of the domestic monthly supply of lithium carbonate, equating to about 0.8 thousand tons per month [5]. - Following the news of the mine's suspension, lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract rising by 6,000 yuan per ton to reach 81,000 yuan per ton, marking a recent high [5][6]. - The mine's closure is anticipated to provide strong support for short-term lithium prices due to the significant impact on supply [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective July 1, 2025, classifies lithium as an independent mineral and raises the standards for recognizing associated minerals, which may affect resource tax calculations and mining economics [5]. - The company had previously expressed optimism about the renewal of the mining license and had submitted the necessary application materials, but approval has not yet been received [5]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. was established in 2021 and is a key player in CATL's strategy to secure lithium resources, having acquired the mining rights for 865 million yuan in April 2022 [6]. - The company aims to accelerate lithium resource exploration and development to enhance lithium supply and support the establishment of a green energy industry system in Yichun [6]. - The first phase of the 33 million tons lithium-containing ceramic soil selection project in the mining area is expected to achieve an annual raw ore processing capacity of 10 million tons in 2023 [6].
宁德时代确认宜春项目暂停开采,碳酸锂涨停
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 02:36
Core Viewpoint - Ningde Times has suspended mining operations at the Jiangxi Yichun project due to the expiration of its mining license, but the overall impact on the company's operations is considered minimal [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The mining license for the Jiangxi Yichun project expired on August 9, leading to a temporary halt in operations while the company applies for a renewal [1] - The company has confirmed that it has submitted the necessary application materials to the local natural resources bureau and is awaiting approval, with a positive outlook on the situation [4] - The company reported a revenue of 178.9 billion RMB in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, and a net profit of 30.5 billion RMB, up 33.02% year-on-year [5] Group 2: Industry Impact - The suspension of operations at Ningde Times' lithium mine may lead to a potential supply reduction of 7,000 to 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month due to similar license approval processes affecting other lithium mines in Jiangxi [1] - The increase in tax rates for converting ceramic clay to lithium clay may significantly raise costs, especially during the traditional peak season from September to November, which could drive up lithium carbonate prices [1] - The recent developments in Jiangxi's lithium mining sector are expected to lead to a re-evaluation of lithium carbonate supply and pricing, with heightened expectations of supply contraction [1][2]
直接涨停!湖南探获4.9亿吨超级锂矿
鑫椤锂电· 2025-07-10 03:31
Core Viewpoint - The discovery of a super-large lithium deposit in Hunan Province, China, presents significant opportunities for the lithium industry, particularly for companies involved in lithium extraction and processing [1][2]. Group 1: Resource Discovery - Hunan Province's Chijiao Mountain mining area has identified a super-large altered granite-type lithium deposit, with a total lithium ore submission of 490 million tons and lithium oxide resource amounting to 1.31 million tons [1][2]. - The deposit also contains associated strategic minerals such as rubidium, tungsten, and tin, all of which are newly identified resources [2]. Group 2: Company Developments - Dazhong Mining's wholly-owned subsidiary, Hunan Dazhong He Lithium Mining Co., Ltd., has obtained exploration rights and is conducting exploration in collaboration with the Hunan Provincial Mineral Resources Survey Institute [2]. - The company has initiated a fully integrated operation model for mining, selection, and smelting, achieving 100% self-sufficiency in lithium raw materials [2]. - The first mining area, Tongtianmiao, has confirmed a resource reserve of approximately 3.24 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with a planned annual production scale of 20 million tons, indicating significant capacity advantages [2]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the lithium discovery, Dazhong Mining's stock surged by the maximum limit of 10% on July 9 [3].
技术突围与资源储备并举 大中矿业“锂”争上游重塑发展新格局
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-06-18 11:47
Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved a significant breakthrough in lithium extraction technology, establishing a solid foundation for the industrialization of advanced lithium extraction processes from lithium mica, addressing both environmental and cost challenges in the industry [1][6]. Technology Innovation - The new lithium extraction technology developed by the company has increased the lithium recovery rate to over 90%, significantly improving resource utilization efficiency compared to traditional methods [5][6]. - The production cost of lithium carbonate using the new process can be comparable to that of lithium spodumene and salt lake extraction, with further potential for cost reduction [6]. Environmental Impact - The traditional lithium extraction methods faced environmental issues due to toxic waste, which the new technology has successfully transformed into non-toxic waste, meeting industrial solid waste standards [5][6]. Resource Development - The company has made significant progress in resource acquisition, completing the evaluation and approval processes for mining in the Jijiao Mountain area within 20 months, with a planned annual production capacity of 2 million tons from open-pit mining and 800,000 tons from underground mining [8]. Strategic Vision - The company is focused on expanding its lithium mining operations while maintaining strategic awareness to track quality mineral resources, aiming to enhance market competitiveness and profit growth [11]. - The dual focus on iron and lithium mining is part of the company's strategy to drive industry green upgrades and support local industrial development [11].
大中矿业股份有限公司关于全资子公司《四川省马尔康市加达矿区0~80线锂矿勘探报告》矿产资源储量通过评审备案的公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-06-13 19:24
Core Viewpoint - The announcement highlights the successful approval of lithium resource reserves at the Sichuan Gada lithium mine, indicating a significant resource advantage for the company in the industry [1][2]. Resource Reserves Summary - The approved lithium ore reserves at the Sichuan Gada lithium mine are 43.436 million tons, with a Li2O mineral amount of 600.9 thousand tons and an average grade of 1.38%, equivalent to approximately 148.42 thousand tons of lithium carbonate [2]. - The total registered lithium carbonate equivalent reserves, including resources from the nearby Jijiao Mountain mine, exceed 4.72 million tons, showcasing a strong resource position in the industry [2]. Future Development Plans - The company has established a complete operational team in the Sichuan region, which is a key area for its lithium mining development, and has developed a detailed growth plan [2]. - The completion of the resource reserve registration is a significant advancement following the successful auction of the mining rights, reflecting the company's expertise in mining investment, development, and operations [2]. Regulatory Compliance and Next Steps - The company will continue to process the necessary permits for mining rights and accelerate the acquisition of licenses required for mineral processing projects to enhance revenue and profitability [2][3].
碳酸锂:成本支撑趋弱,关注高基差下采买需求
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for lithium carbonate is weakening, and attention should be paid to the procurement demand under high basis conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 66,960 yuan, down 1,220 yuan compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 145,735 lots, an increase of 37,558 lots; the open interest was 246,197 lots, an increase of 28,827 lots. - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 68,320 yuan, down 1,080 yuan; the trading volume was 13,279 lots, an increase of 1,994 lots; the open interest was 33,348 lots, an increase of 3,229 lots [1] - **Spot - Futures Basis**: - The basis of spot - 2507 was 1,890 yuan, up 270 yuan. - The basis of spot - 2509 was 530 yuan, up 130 yuan. - The basis of 2507 - 2509 was - 1,360 yuan, down 140 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salt Prices**: - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 779 US dollars, down 14 US dollars. - The price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,560 yuan, down 30 yuan. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,850 yuan, down 950 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,100 yuan, down 950 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price Changes**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 68,998 yuan/ton, down 957 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,850 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,100 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton [2] - **Lithium Ore Resources in Yajiang, Sichuan**: Yajiang County in Sichuan has proven lithium ore resources of 2.2 billion tons, with 3.06 million tons of lithium oxide resources. It has cooperated with industry giants such as CATL, Tianqi Lithium, and Shengtun [3] - **Lithium Concentrate Shipment from Australia**: From April 20th to April 27th, 2025, the total shipment of Australian lithium concentrate to China was 78,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons compared to the previous period, with a weekly average shipment of 69,000 tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]
四川雅江已探明锂矿资源2.2亿吨
news flash· 2025-04-27 13:48
Core Insights - Sichuan's Ganzi Prefecture has confirmed lithium resources of 220 million tons, making it a significant player in the lithium mining industry [1] - The lithium resources in Yajiang County are part of the core composition of the Mica Rare Metal Minefield and have the largest proven reserves of spodumene-type lithium ore globally [1] - Yajiang County has established partnerships with major industry players including CATL, Tianqi Lithium, and Shengtun, indicating strong collaboration in lithium resource development [1] Resource Details - The confirmed lithium spodumene resource is 220 million tons, with an additional 3.06 million tons of lithium oxide resources [1] - The mining rights for the Snowsky lithium mine have been obtained by CATL and Shengtun, while Tianqi Lithium's Cozala lithium mine has resumed full operations [1]
盛新锂能:2024年年报点评:自有矿产量提升明显,减值拖累业绩-20250323
Minsheng Securities· 2025-03-23 13:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in its own mineral production, but impairment losses have negatively impacted its performance [2][3]. - The lithium concentrate production reached 286,000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [2]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2024 was 90,000 yuan, down 64.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant price drop due to industry oversupply [2]. - The company expects to see a gradual recovery in profitability from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 226 million, 427 million, and 531 million yuan respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.4% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 622 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 2.4%, down 10.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling lithium prices [2][3]. Production and Capacity - The company has successfully increased its lithium concentrate production capacity, with the Sichuan Yelonggou mine producing approximately 75,000 tons and the Zimbabwe Sabi Star mine reaching a capacity of 290,000 tons [2][3]. - The company has also established a lithium salt production capacity of 137,000 tons and 500 tons of metallic lithium by the end of 2024 [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in net profits starting in 2025, with projected earnings per share of 0.25 yuan in 2025, 0.47 yuan in 2026, and 0.58 yuan in 2027 [5][4]. - The report highlights the potential for increased profitability from the high-grade Muzhong lithium mine, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's integrated production capacity once operational [3][4].