Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the Panama Supreme Court declaring the concession rights of CK Hutchison unconstitutional reflects significant geopolitical changes in the Western Hemisphere amid a shift in U.S. policy under Trump's administration, which has elevated the region's importance in U.S. global strategy, surpassing that of the EU and Asia-Pacific [1] Group 1: U.S. Policy and Strategy - The U.S. has adopted a "New Monroe Doctrine" to consolidate its hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, explicitly targeting non-Western Hemisphere competitors and aiming to establish a strategic backyard and security fortress dominated by the U.S. [2] - The U.S. Department of Defense's new defense strategy emphasizes protecting U.S. interests in the Western Hemisphere, aligning with the national security strategy to enhance control over Latin America as a critical area for U.S. expansion [2] - The U.S. is expected to adopt a more aggressive, coercive, and unilateral approach in its Latin American policies, with a clear direction towards multi-faceted and pervasive suppression of regional powers [2] Group 2: Impact on Latin America - The geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China has increased uncertainty in China-Latin America cooperation, but the long-term impact is expected to be limited as Latin American countries still view China as a respected and reliable trade partner [3] - The core tenets of the Monroe Doctrine have shifted from "America for Americans" to "America for Americans," guiding U.S. policy in Latin America and justifying interventionist and exclusionary policies that have historically caused significant suffering in the region [3] - The U.S. has conducted over 400 military interventions in its 250-year history, with 34% occurring in Latin America and the Caribbean, indicating a long-standing pattern of military involvement in the region [3] Group 3: Reactions and Alternatives - The U.S. intervention in Venezuela highlights the fundamental flaws of the "New Monroe Doctrine," revealing a regression from modern political civilization to primitive law, making it more challenging for Latin American countries to pursue peace and development [4] - Latin American countries are showing a divided attitude towards the U.S., with some factions compromising while others resist, yet many still prioritize their national interests in core matters [4] - The U.S. has failed to provide substantial economic support to meet the development needs of Latin American countries, instead using economic coercion and political manipulation, leading to a structural contradiction between U.S. security demands and Latin American development aspirations [5]

哥伦比亚总统佩特罗到访美国，哥伦比亚与美国的互动是否具有代表性，会不会成为拉美阵营力量调整 的风向标？ "唐罗主义"高压来袭，拉美被迫选边站 美军突袭委内瑞拉、掳走马杜罗夫妇后，让素有美国"后院"之称的拉丁美洲骤然紧张，特朗普高举"唐 罗主义"大旗掀起西半球霸权风暴。他的每一次威胁，每一句表态，每一步布局，都在逼着拉美国家选 边站。 特朗普在拉美打造所谓"朋友圈"，正是美国推行其"门罗主义"的行为。 美国塔夫茨大学的研究显示，自1776年以来，美国在全球发起近400次军事干预，其中34%的目标直指 拉美。从19世纪中叶的炮舰威慑，到20世纪的武装占领与政权颠覆，美国暴力干涉的阴影始终笼罩在拉 美。 2025年12月，特朗普政府推出《国家安全战略》，报告中明确美国"将重申并执行'门罗主义'"，并将其 称为"门罗主义特朗普推论"，主要内容是特朗普政府的关注重点将从全球转向偏重西半球。 而在此之前，特朗普早已采取行动挤压拉美国家的自主发展空间。 经济上，2025年11月，美国与阿根廷、危地马拉、厄瓜多尔和萨尔瓦多达成了贸易框架协议。这些国家 或已美元化，或部分美元化，对美国经济高度依赖。军事上，2025年12月，美 ...

据凤凰卫视报道，特朗普和他的"宿敌"哥伦比亚总统佩特罗2月3日在白宫见面了。 上海大学特聘教授江时学表示，哥伦比亚与美国的闭门会谈是关系缓和的积极步骤，但佩特罗是否会完 全屈服，仍有待观察，双方在核心议题上分歧仍存。 特朗普在拉美打造所谓"朋友圈"，正是美国推行其"门罗主义"的行为。中国现代国际关系研究院拉美研 究所所长孙岩峰分析评论，阿根廷总统米莱以特朗普为榜样，本身反对拉美左翼模式，又依赖美国推动 经济改革，自然在外交上紧跟美国。特朗普公开干预洪都拉斯、智利大选，为亲美候选人站队施压，成 功推动多国右转，打造自己的拉美"朋友圈"。 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、 工业金属等大类资产产生颠覆式深远影响。 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日 星期三 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 沃什的降息+缩表组合，表明美联储货币政策将重大转向，将对权益类资产产 生强烈的流动性收缩预期。 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | 1、特朗普明确表态，要求对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查"进行到底"。市场担 | | | | | 忧，特朗普对鲍威尔的穷追猛打，可能导致沃什无法顺利接任联储主席一职。此前 | | | | | 共和党参议员 Thom Tillis 警告，"不停止调查就阻挠新美联储主席提名"。 | | | | | 2、对冲基金疯狂逃离软件股，私募股权板块遭遇抛售潮。巴克莱警告 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to continuous wrong policies in the US [2] - There is significant uncertainty in the global economic situation, influenced by factors such as potential inflation resurgence, Fed policy changes, and geopolitical issues [1][2] Summary by Related Content Global Economic News - Global financial giants like BlackRock, Pimco, and Bridgewater are guarding against inflation resurgence, with the 10 - year inflation swap reaching its highest increase in a year. Some top - tier institutions warn that inflation may return above 4% by the end of the year [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's current large balance sheet is a decision of the existing FOMC. If unemployment drops further, spending remains strong, and inflation doesn't decline, the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged this year [1] - Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 through bond and equity financing for cloud infrastructure expansion, but it already has $95 billion in debt [1] - Red杉 Capital partner thinks SpaceX's valuation has soared from $36 billion in 2019 to $800 billion, and Musk's business value is still underestimated [1] - Tesla will unveil the third - generation humanoid robot, with a planned annual production of 1 million units. The Model S/X production line at the Fremont factory will be converted, and mass production is expected to start by the end of 2026 [1] - The market interprets Japan's statement on "enhancing economic resilience to exchange - rate fluctuations" as a cautious downgrade of direct yen intervention. The yen faces a rising risk of a short - term decline [1] - Due to inflation stickiness and strong employment, the market is re - evaluating the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike this week has risen to 73%, and the 10 - year bond yield is approaching 5% [1] - Japan officially confirmed no actual intervention in the foreign - exchange market in January. The future of the yen is uncertain as the US denies coordinated action, and Japan may face stronger intervention pressure after the election [1] Global Economic Logic - Bridgewater's Dalio warns that the US is at risk of civil war, and investors should be aware of capital - control risks [2] - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of Fed nominee chair Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - Geopolitical actions by the US, such as seizing Venezuelan oil and attempting to buy Greenland, bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - Nomura says Fed - related uncertainties may peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while low - and middle - income families cut back [2] - TSMC's Q4 performance and 2026 revenue guidance signal the continuation of the AI boom [2] - Musk hopes to achieve full rocket reusability with Starship this year, which could reduce space - entry costs by 100 times to below $100 per pound [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2] - Wash's proposed combination of rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in Fed policy, creating expectations of strong liquidity contraction for equity assets [2]

美国此次暴怒，最直接的原因是，加拿大是自己的近邻和小兄弟，欧洲国家跟美国唱反调，美国或许还有鞭长莫及之感，家门口的加拿大居然敢背刺特朗 普，这让美国颜面尽失。我们都知道，美国正在推行特朗普版本的"门罗主义"，将整个西半球看作是自己的"自留地"，格陵兰岛还没到手，加拿大又搞出新 状况，如果不压制加拿大与中国走近的势头，美国在全球的威信将会荡然无存。 然而，加拿大的"反骨"行为，恰恰是美国逼出来的。在威胁对加拿大征收100%的关税时，特朗普直接将卡尼称为"州长"，还宣称加拿大之所以存在，完全 是因为有美国提供保护，这无疑是对一个主权国家赤裸裸的威胁. 最近这段时间，美国总统特朗普正被美国的盟友们弄得焦头烂额。尤其是加拿大对中国态度180度大转弯，对于特朗普政府来说，无疑是背刺。当地时间1月 24日，特朗普再度对加拿大发出威胁，声称如果加拿大落实与中国的贸易协议，就将对其征收100%的关税。而在一天后，也就是1月25日，美国财政部长贝 森特也"破防"，在节目中对中国撂狠话，称如果加拿大和中国达成协议超出了已经公布的范围，美国在制裁加拿大的同时，也将对中国加征关税。 那么，美国为什么对加拿大如此愤怒呢？实际上，加拿大 ...

罗德里格斯当天还在另一篇帖文中表示，今年是《宣布拉美和加勒比为和平区的公告》签署12周年，拉 美和加勒比国家共同体维护地区和平的坚定意志正遭到美帝国主义支配欲的践踏。美国政府推行好战政 策，并试图重振早已声名狼藉的"门罗主义"，"美洲和平、安全与稳定正面临威胁"。 当前，古巴和美国关系处于高度紧张状态。本月初，美国对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击。特朗普随后 暗示，古巴可能成为美国下一个关注目标。 新华社哈瓦那1月29日电古巴外长罗德里格斯29日晚在社交媒体发文，以"最强烈措辞"谴责美国对古新 一轮石油封锁行动。 美国总统特朗普当天签署行政令称，美方将建立一个关税机制，对向古巴直接或间接提供石油的国家输 美商品加征从价关税。 罗德里格斯表示，古巴人民承受着持续时间最长、最严酷的经济封锁。美国正试图全面封锁古巴的燃料 供应，并为此编造一系列谎言，将古巴描绘成所谓的威胁。 他说，事实上，每天都有新证据显示，威胁本地区和平、安全与稳定的，恰恰是美国政府在拉丁美洲和 加勒比地区对各国实施的干预。美国通过讹诈和胁迫，企图迫使其他国家支持美国对古封锁政策。对于 拒绝者，美国威胁施加关税，这违反国际自由贸易规则。 （文章来源： ...

Group 1: Key Insights from the Reports - The report on the banking industry indicates that 2026 is expected to be a year where the fundamentals of banks improve, with revenue pressure less than in 2025 and a stronger elasticity of revenue improvement compared to profit [13] - The banking sector is anticipated to experience a shift from a focus on liquidity to a focus on fundamentals, with expectations of economic recovery and a more favorable environment for growth premiums [13] - The report highlights that credit demand is expected to remain stable, but the structure of demand needs optimization, with state-owned banks and quality regional city commercial banks likely to perform better [13] Group 2: Industry Performance and Trends - The metal and new materials industry report notes a significant increase in metal prices due to geopolitical tensions, with precious metals rising by 18.46% and aluminum by 4.16% in the recent week [5][16] - The report emphasizes that the copper market is expected to remain strong due to increased investment in power grids and AI data centers, with a projected price increase [15] - The report on Anta Sports highlights the acquisition of a 29% stake in PUMA, which is seen as a strategic move to enhance its global multi-brand strategy, with the transaction valued at approximately 15 billion euros [19] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Shipbuilding's earnings forecast for 2025 indicates a significant increase in net profit, expected to be between 7 billion to 8.4 billion yuan, driven by rising demand in the shipbuilding sector [21] - New Oriental's revenue for the second quarter of FY26 reached 1.191 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, with a notable improvement in operating profit margins [22] - Dongfang Zhenxuan reported a revenue increase of 5.7% in the first half of FY26, driven by self-operated product sales and improved profit margins [24]

二是全球地缘格局显著改变。从上届到本届特朗普政府，中间间隔了一个拜登政府，在拜登政府期间发 生了俄乌冲突，这成为世界形势百年未有之变局加速演进一个最直接的原因。 1月23日晚，美国国防部发布特朗普政府2026年国防战略报告。作为《国家安全战略》报告的下位战 略，该报告内容与2025年12月初特朗普政府推出的《国家安全战略》报告相呼应。与2022年拜登政府同 步推出两份战略不同，特朗普政府这份国防战略报告比《国家安全战略》报告晚推出了近两个月，可见 是经过了行政团队与军方之间反复的讨论和论证。 一 美国新一届政府在就职一年之际推出《国家安全战略》报告和国防战略报告是例行动作，但由于特朗普 第二次入主白宫后的政策倾向不仅与前任拜登政府截然不同，也与其第一次入主白宫时变化较大，使得 其在国家安全和国防军事方面的政策广受关注，其中有着深刻的国际国内背景。 一是美国政治重回"门罗主义"。"门罗主义"是1823年由时任美国总统门罗提出来的，其核心内容就是在 美洲驱逐欧洲列强殖民势力，口号是"美洲是美洲人的美洲"，意在巩固美国在美洲的绝对优势和霸权。 其后，有数位美国总统执行这一理念，被称"门罗主义"的"某某推论"。 在第 ...

这些事件，任何一项单独出现，都足以改变既有世界格局；而当它们同时发生，其对全球经济与政治秩序的重塑效应，或将远超当前认知。更何 况，这一切才都发生在2026年才开始的第一个月 ▲特朗普在达沃斯论坛上 2026年开年前三周，一连串堪称"地震级"的冲击正在动摇二战后长期形成的共识，其影响或将重塑未来数年的世界政治与经济版图。 国际秩序和全球商业有几条"大家默认成立"的逻辑被颠覆：美国会和西方盟友绑定在一起；全球供应链把各国经济越绑越紧；而美联储的独立运作加上亚洲 充足的资金供给，则让世界金融体系得以保持运转。 颠覆一： 美欧关系"解绑" 多年之后，特朗普于2026年1月在达沃斯宣称美国"必须获得格陵兰岛"的表态，或许会被视为一个历史性转折。围绕格陵兰岛的争议，可能成为一种象征： 西方国家正在出现深刻裂痕。 事实上，历任美国总统都曾不同程度介入拉美事务，但与以往更强调扶植亲美政府等旗号不同，特朗普的优先目标更像是直接锁定石油资源。而在这一过程 中，他并不在乎这些国家的权力结构与统治体系是否出现根本变化。 颠覆三： 美联储难回从前 ▲当地时间2026年1月26日，格陵兰努克，丹麦士兵在码头进行军事演习 图据视觉中国 ...