Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The current predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is assessed at 1.99%, down from 2.13%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14 basis points [5] - The adjustment mechanism for predetermined interest rates has been triggered, leading to a non-symmetrical reduction in the maximum predetermined interest rates for traditional, participating, and universal insurance by 50, 25, and 50 basis points respectively [5] - The adjustment is primarily influenced by a significant drop in the yield of 10-year government bonds in Q4 2024, which has been anticipated by the market [5] - The report indicates that the maximum predetermined interest rate for ordinary insurance products is now 2.0%, down from 2.5%, while the maximum for participating insurance is now 1.75%, down from 2.0% [5] - The report suggests that the adjustment of 50 basis points may not align with the expected 25 basis points based on the notification requirements, but anticipates further declines in the predetermined interest rates in the second half of 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The research value has been adjusted as expected, with the current rates reflecting a downward trend due to market conditions [5] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the 5-year LPR is at 3.5%, the 5-year fixed deposit benchmark rate is at 1.3%, and the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.65% [5] Industry-Market Comparison - Major life insurance companies are expected to gradually lower their product predetermined interest rates following the release of the research value [5] - The report highlights that the sensitivity of gross premium growth to interest rate changes is lower for participating insurance compared to traditional insurance [5] Investment Recommendations - The non-symmetrical reduction in predetermined interest rates is expected to benefit high-quality life insurance companies with strong sales capabilities in participating insurance [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Xinhua Insurance, China Ping An, AIA, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and China People’s Insurance [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [7][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the scheduled adjustment of the predetermined interest rate is expected to positively impact the optimization of liability costs and the value of participating insurance options [3][6]. - The predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been set at 1.99%, which is 51 basis points below the upper limit of 2.5%, triggering a required adjustment [4][5]. - The adjustment of the predetermined interest rates for various insurance products has been implemented, with ordinary products reduced by 50 basis points to 2.0%, and participating products by 25 basis points to 1.75% [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of managing liability costs and the transformation of participating insurance products as key factors influencing company valuations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - The report notes that the predetermined interest rate research value has exceeded the upper limit for two consecutive quarters, necessitating a reduction in new product rates by September 1 [4]. - The adjustments made by major insurers like Ping An and China Life reflect a strategic response to market conditions and regulatory requirements [5]. Valuation and Performance - The report suggests that the core concern affecting the valuation of life insurance companies is the risk of interest spread losses, with a focus on controlling liability costs [6]. - The report provides data on the new business value (NBV) break-even yield for major insurers, indicating slight year-over-year declines for companies like China Life and Ping An [6]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the insurance sector's performance, driven by declining new liability costs, increased value of participating insurance options, and stable long-term interest rates [7]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Life, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China People’s Insurance, Ping An, ZhongAn Online, and China Property Insurance [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term investment outlook for the banking sector despite short-term fluctuations in stock performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is experiencing a shift with the adjustment of the guaranteed interest rates for life insurance products, which is expected to enhance the investment capabilities of leading insurance companies [2][13][17]. - The brokerage sector shows strong performance with a notable increase in stock prices, driven by favorable market conditions and increased trading activity [3][18][19]. - The banking sector is currently facing a downturn, but long-term growth potential remains intact, with a focus on selecting banks with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [4][20][21]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance index increased by 1.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points [2][12]. - The standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been adjusted to 1.99%, down from 2.13%, prompting several insurance companies to lower their rates [13][14]. - The trend towards dividend insurance products is expected to grow, as they can effectively reduce liability costs and enhance competitiveness [14][17]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage index rose by 4.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.13 percentage points, indicating strong market sentiment [3][18]. - The average daily trading volume increased by 20% to 18,487 billion yuan, reflecting sustained market activity [18][40]. - The report highlights the potential for significant gains in the brokerage sector due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing financial technology advancements [19][20]. Banking Sector - The banking index fell by 2.87%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.56 percentage points, indicating short-term challenges [4][20]. - Despite recent declines, the long-term outlook for the banking sector remains positive, with a focus on banks that exhibit strong earnings stability and high dividend yields [21][22]. - Investment strategies should prioritize banks with high asset quality and low non-performing loan ratios, as well as those benefiting from favorable market conditions [24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained), indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [5]. Core Viewpoints - The recent adjustment of the predetermined interest rate for life insurance products is a necessary response to the ongoing decline in market interest rates. The current research value for ordinary life insurance products is set at 1.99%, with traditional life insurance rates being lowered from 2.5% to 2.0% and guaranteed rates for participating insurance dropping from 2% to 1.75% [1][2]. - The downward adjustment of the predetermined interest rate is expected to have a short-term impact on new premium growth due to potential product discontinuations and reduced attractiveness of ordinary life insurance products. However, it will help alleviate the rigid cost pressure on liabilities in the long term by encouraging insurance companies to optimize product structures and increase the development of flexible yield products [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The adjustment of predetermined interest rates reflects the insurance industry's gradual adaptation to changes in market interest rates, with historical data showing a consistent decline in rates since 2019 [2]. - The establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism linking predetermined rates to market rates is aimed at ensuring the stability of the insurance industry amid declining interest rates [2]. Short-term and Long-term Impacts - In the short term, the adjustment may lead to a wave of product discontinuations and pressure on new premium growth due to decreased product attractiveness [3]. - In the long term, the adjustment is expected to promote the development of participating and universal insurance products, enhancing investment returns and addressing the challenges posed by reduced interest rate spreads [3]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable operations such as China Pacific Insurance (601601), Ping An Insurance (601318), and New China Life Insurance (601336), which have greater asset flexibility [3].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is entering a new phase of "interest rate cuts," with the first move made by Tongfang Global Life Insurance, which has reduced the preset interest rate of its new dividend insurance products from 2% to 1.5% [2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends and Regulatory Changes - The downward trend in interest rates has been significant, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to 1.64% as of June 23, 2024, which is below the preset interest rate cap for ordinary life insurance products [6][9]. - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has implemented a mechanism to link preset interest rates with market rates, requiring timely adjustments when preset rates exceed a certain threshold [9][5]. - This marks the third reduction in preset interest rates for insurance products in two years, with ordinary life insurance rates decreasing from 4.025% to 2.5% [6][5]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - The long-term inversion of interest rates poses significant risks for insurance companies, as the declining investment returns pressure the income side while the liability side remains rigid [7][8]. - Companies face challenges in investment decision-making, as investing heavily in long-term bonds may not cover liability costs, while a lack of stable returns could lead to systemic risks [8][11]. Group 3: Product Strategy and Development - Tongfang Global Life has adopted a balanced multi-product strategy, offering both dividend and non-dividend products, as well as savings and pension products to meet diverse customer needs [13][12]. - The company is focusing on risk-sharing products, including dividend and universal insurance, as well as protection products like term life and high-end medical insurance [13][14]. - There is a push for innovation in product offerings, particularly in risk-sharing products, to better align with market demands and mitigate interest rate risks [16][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The insurance industry is expected to continue adjusting preset interest rates downward, with predictions of further reductions around August [9]. - The development of new product types, such as index-linked universal insurance and guaranteed investment-linked insurance, is recommended to enhance market acceptance and provide minimum guarantees [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory body has issued guidelines to insurance companies to ensure sustainable dividend levels for participating insurance products, preventing excessive competition that could harm the industry's long-term health [1][2][3]. Regulatory Guidelines - The recent regulatory opinion emphasizes that insurance companies must carefully determine annual dividend levels based on actual asset-liability and investment income situations, avoiding arbitrary increases that lead to "involution" competition [1][2]. - Six specific scenarios have been outlined where insurance companies must justify the necessity, reasonableness, and sustainability of proposed dividend levels before implementation [3]. Industry Context - In a low-interest-rate environment, participating insurance products have become a focal point for insurance companies, but the sales difficulty and competition remain high [2]. - The regulatory opinion aims to prevent short-term consumer attraction through inflated dividends, which poses long-term sustainability challenges for products [2]. Financial Metrics - The average financial investment return for the past three years in the life insurance sector is 3.20%, which serves as a benchmark for evaluating proposed dividend levels [3]. - The regulatory body will enhance data monitoring and impose penalties for non-compliance, including regulatory interviews and score deductions [3]. Cost Management - The regulatory opinion continues the trend of reducing liability costs to mitigate interest rate risk, with previous adjustments allowing for lower guaranteed rates on universal insurance products [4]. - Major companies have already begun to lower the dividend realization rates for participating insurance products since last year, with specific caps set for different company sizes [4]. Future Projections - The average monthly pressure on the predetermined interest rate research value is approximately 4 basis points, with expectations of further declines in the coming months [6]. - A recent product launch by a joint venture life insurance company has introduced a participating product with a predetermined interest rate of 1.5%, marking a significant shift in the market [6].

随着新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）和银行存款利率的接连下调，一年期定期存款利率已经跌 破"1"字头。在此背景下，业内普遍预计，2.5%预定利率产品退场进入倒计时，新一轮预定利率下调即 将到来。 有迹象表明，保险公司正在加大分红险等浮动收益型产品供给。《每日经济新闻》记者不完全统计显 示，截至5月26日，在今年到目前为止上新的340款人寿保险产品中，分红型、万能型等浮动收益型产品 有157款，占比接近五成。 业内人士分析认为，长期看，随着利率不断走低，分红险作为一种类固收产品，能够满足市场需求，规 模增长将具有持续性。 2.5%预定利率产品步入倒计时 市场此前对新一轮存款降息已有预期。近日，六家国有大行和招商银行均于官网公示了最新的人民币存 款挂牌利率。 此次调整，中长期存款利率的降幅更大。具体而言，活期存款下调5BP（基点），整存整取三个月期、 六个月期、一年期、二年期的利率均下调15BP，三年期和五年期利率均下调25BP。 随着银行存款降息的延续，曾被视为"揽储利器"的大额存单产品正逐渐"失宠"。近期，有多家银行在调 降定期存款利率的同时，也同步下调了大额存单产品利率。目前，大额存单产品即将全面迈入"1时 ...

以下文章来源于一丰看金融 ，作者王一峰、黄怡婷 一丰看金融 . 分享经济金融领域大事小情，路边新闻 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 4月21日，中国保险行业协会组织召开人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询委员会2025年一季度例 会，就宏观经济形势、市场利率走势和行业发展情况进行研究。其中，保险业专家对人身保险产品预定利 率研究值发表了意见，认为当前普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为2.13 %。参会保险公司表示，将密 切关注宏观经济形势和预定利率研究值走势，及时跟进市场利率变化，结合行业发展和自身经营情况，研 究调整产品定价，不断提升负债质量。 点评： 预定利率研究值下降21BP至2.13% 根据财联社，1月10日，国家金融监督管理总局向业内下发《 ...

分享经济金融领域大事小情，路边新闻 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 以下文章来源于一丰看金融 ，作者王一峰、黄怡婷 一丰看金融 . 根据财联社，1月10日，国家金融监督管理总局向业内下发《关于建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调 整机制有关事项的通知》，提出要建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制，由中国保险行业协会定 期组织专家咨询委员会，结合5年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）、5年期定期存款利率、10年期国债收 益率等市场利率变化和行业资产负债管理情况，每季度发布预定利率研究值，各保险公司根据研究值动态 调整产品预定利率最高值。当日，中保协公布普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为2.34%。4月21日，中 保协公布最新研究值为2.13%，较上期下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current research value of the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has dropped to 2.13%, marking the first decline below 2.25% [2][3]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Research Value - The predetermined interest rate research value for ordinary life insurance products is now 2.13% [2][3]. - The maximum predetermined interest rate for traditional insurance products remains at 2.5%, which does not require adjustment at this time [2][9]. - The predetermined interest rate research value has decreased from 2.34% earlier this year, exceeding the 25 basis points threshold compared to the latest value [8]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework and Adjustments - A notification from the Financial Regulatory Bureau established a mechanism linking predetermined interest rates to market rates, with the maximum predetermined interest rate set at 0.25% increments [4]. - If the maximum predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products exceeds the research value by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters, it must be adjusted downwards within two months [5]. - Conversely, if the maximum predetermined interest rate is below the research value by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters, it may be adjusted upwards, but not exceeding the research value [6]. Group 3: Industry Response and Future Outlook - Insurance companies are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic conditions and the trends of the predetermined interest rate research value to adjust product pricing accordingly [11]. - If the next quarter's research value remains below 2.25%, the maximum predetermined interest rate will be reduced by at least 25 basis points [10].