风口与泡沫总是相伴相生，短剧出海亦是如此。 刚刚过去的2025年，短剧出海依然火爆，巨头入局、黑马崛起、AI带来新机遇；但虚火也同样刺眼：80%-90% 的项目无法回本，多数平台陷入 "增收不增 利"，海外市场体量仅为国内的 1/5-1/6，90% 收入集中于美国，新兴市场渗透率不足一成，内容供给依赖译制剧、文化适配难题突出。 如今，站在2026年伊始，短剧出海，又会面临怎样的竞争格局与市场契机呢？ 01. 短剧在海外，刚上了"小孩桌" "全球90%的内容市场在海外。"枫叶互动副总裁南亚鹏在接受访谈时的这一观点，精准点出海外市场的巨大潜力。 2025年，短剧出海赛道迎来爆发式增长：谷歌预测全产业链规模（含应用内购、广告、品牌定制等全收入来源）达36亿美元，同比激增126%；Sensor Tower等权威机构数据显示，2025年海外微短剧App双端内购收入达20.3亿美元，同比增幅亦高达115.3%。 赛道规模扩容的同时，玩家阵营也持续壮大。2025年，ReelShort、DramaBox、GoodShort等老牌玩家稳居收入榜首，持续领跑；字节跳动密集加码，推出 全球多地区覆盖的PineDrama、日本本土化 ...

【国信传媒】元宝发10亿现金红包，流量入口竞争加速，持续看好AI应用端机会 从千问到元宝春节红包活动，头部厂商持续加码流量与场景建设，推动基于AI的超级入口竞争进入加速期。 当前阶段，或正处于类似PC向移动互联网迁移的关键拐点。 近期板块调整后，部分优质标的具备较好的超跌反弹空间与性价比。 GEO相关标的： 内容与服务有望成为下一阶段AI超级入口竞争的核心要素与"铲子型"资产。 方向上，持续看好受益于信息生成与分发范式变革的GEO产 【国信传媒】元宝发10亿现金红包，流量入口竞争加速，持续看好AI应用端机会 从千问到元宝春节红包活动，头部厂商持续加码流量与场景建设，推动基于AI的超级入口竞争进入加速期。 当前阶段，或正处于类似PC向移动互联网迁移的关键拐点。 内容与服务有望成为下一阶段AI超级入口竞争的核心要素与"铲子型"资产。 方向上，持续看好受益于信息生成与分发范式变革的GEO产业链。 营销服务端：引力传媒、浙文互联、易点天下、汇量科技、天下秀等。 数据/内容端：人民网、中文在线、值得买等。 平台端：哔哩哔哩（AI应用优质投放平台，受益用户拉新与内容获取）、昆仑万维等 内容向关注AI漫剧与游戏 AI漫剧方 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The AI application market is experiencing significant growth and sustainability in 2026, with a notable recovery in the advertising marketing sector compared to 2025, driven by the successful implementation of AI in practical scenarios [2][4] - The AI comic market is rapidly expanding, with 60% of content creators using AI technology for content generation, and AI comics accounting for over 70% of the market share by Q4 2025 [3][28] Key Companies and Developments - **Anthropic**: Launched Claude Skills, which optimizes workplace workflows by packaging complex task instructions into skill sets, enhancing efficiency and accuracy [2][7] - **ByteDance**: Introduced Coze 2.0, which includes Agent Skills and Agent Plan features aimed at improving daily workflow efficiency [2][4] - **OpenAI**: Accelerating commercialization with plans to launch advertising monetization in February 2026, potentially impacting the Chinese market [4][6] - **Minimax**: Released Agent 2.0 desktop application, focusing on workplace integration [10][11] - **Giant Network**: Collaborating with 巨量引擎 to explore AI technology integration in game development, enhancing user experience and creative generation [5][18] Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - Intense competition among leading internet companies in the AI application space, particularly during the Chinese New Year, marking 2026 as a pivotal year for AI application entry [4] - The gaming industry is witnessing a gradual integration of AI technologies, with significant advancements expected in 2026, including the launch of new AI-native games [15][19] Financial Insights - **分众传媒**: Plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of over 80% from net profit excluding non-recurring losses, indicating strong cash flow despite a one-time loss of 2.15 billion [12][13] - **OpenAI**: Reported revenues of approximately $4.3 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with substantial operational costs, highlighting the urgency for monetization strategies [9][10] Investment Recommendations - Focus on advertising marketing and AI comic sectors, with companies like 易点天下, 中文互联, and 值得买 poised to benefit from increased advertising activities [11] - In the AI comic sector, companies such as 快手 and 可灵 are recommended for their innovative tools and IP potential [11][30] Future Outlook - The AI application landscape is expected to evolve significantly in 2026, with practical applications expanding across various sectors, including gaming and content creation [8][28] - The comic industry is projected to see further growth due to increased supply and supportive policies from major platforms [29][30] Additional Insights - Tencent's strategic initiatives in AI and cloud services are noteworthy, with a rapid increase in partnerships and revenue from AI-related models [24] - The gaming sector remains attractive for investment, with reasonable valuations and anticipated revenue peaks during the holiday season [14][23]

过去一年，真人短剧行业"二八分化"格局逐渐显现。头部项目持续吸金，但大量制作方仍在微利中求生。与之形成对比的 是，AI漫剧流水表现异军突起，灵矩动漫、BlueNeo等公司将其视为新的"第二增长曲线"。以灵矩动漫为例，2024年，其曾 尝试用AI制作短剧，但受限于技术发展，制作成本居高不下。灵矩动漫披露，当时AI短剧制作成本显著高于同期真人短剧 的制作成本。而不到一年时间，行业成本结构出现明显变化。2025年5月，灵矩动漫立项两部漫剧，并在商业化表现上获得 正向反馈，推动其进一步加码漫剧赛道。 灵矩动漫的转向从侧面印证了2025年是AI漫剧的集中爆发之年。数据显示，2025年4月至7月，漫剧剧目供给量以83%的复 合增长率持续扩容，播放量与点赞量分别实现92%、105%的复合增长。在真人短剧增量趋缓的背景下，AI漫剧正由行业 的"新尝试"跃升为内容市场的"新主流"。 内容供给端的持续加码和AI技术的应用落地，构成了AI漫剧集中爆发的双重动因。在供给端，阅文集团、知乎盐言故事、 番茄小说、掌阅科技、七猫等平台与IP方的相继开放版权资源，形成覆盖都市、玄幻、言情、悬疑等多题材的海量IP池，为 AI漫剧发展提供了内容 ...

新的一年，海外短剧市场的热度不减。回看过去的2025年，整个市场的增长相当猛，据报道全年收入超过23亿美元，下载量突破12亿次，同比均实现大幅 增长。 中国厂商依旧占据绝对的领先优势，几乎包揽了短剧APP海外收入榜TOP20。像《MyDrama》表面上看出自乌克兰团队，但据网友爆料幕后老板同样来自 中国；《Playlet》的创始人则曾担任欢聚时代总经理、虎牙直播负责人。 | | | | 2025年短剧APP收入 海外 App Store + Google Play | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 制图:游戏新知 (youxixinzhi) | | | | | 排名 | | 名称 | 公司 | 收入(美元) | 环比增长 | 排名变化 | | 1 | | ReelShort | 枫叶互动 | | 112% | 1 | | 2 | | DramaBox | 点众科技 | | 75% | ← | | 3 | | GoodShort | 新闻时代 | | 200% | 1 | | 4 | | Dramawave | 昆仑万维 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the growth potential of the Douyin (TikTok) giant engine in the comic drama sector, predicting a market size of 22 billion yuan by 2026, indicating sustained high industry vitality [1] Group 1: Market Insights - On January 20, Douyin's giant engine held a comic drama ecological conference in Hangzhou, revealing that the peak daily consumption in the comic drama sector reached 30 million [1] - The overall market scale for comic dramas is expected to reach 22 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a continuation of high industry vitality [1] Group 2: Content and Technology Trends - High-quality content, including AI-generated dramas, adaptations of popular IPs, and innovative themes, shows a higher success rate in the market, indicating a competitive advantage for quality content [1] - AI technology has been deeply integrated into the comic drama production pipeline, significantly reducing costs and increasing efficiency [1] Group 3: Commercialization Strategies - Leading AI dramas are enhancing their commercial value through copyright distribution and IAA+IAP co-investment strategies [1] - The industry outlook for AI dramas remains positive, with a recommendation to focus on companies that possess quality IP and production capacity [1]

Core Insights - The Douyin Giant Engine held a Comic Drama Ecological Conference in Hangzhou on January 20, indicating a significant event in the industry [1] - The daily peak consumption in the ByteDance comic drama sector reached 30 million, showcasing strong user engagement [1] - The overall market size for comic dramas is projected to reach 22 billion by 2026, reflecting sustained high industry vitality [1] Content Analysis - From the content perspective, AI-generated human dramas, high-quality IP adaptations, and innovative themes are showing higher hit rates, indicating a competitive advantage for quality content in the market [1] - On the technology front, AI technology has been deeply integrated into the comic drama pipeline, significantly reducing costs and increasing efficiency [1] - Leading AI dramas are continuously enhancing their commercial value through copyright distribution and IAA+IAP co-investment strategies [1] Investment Recommendations - The AI drama industry is expected to maintain its vitality, and companies with high-quality IP and production capacity should be closely monitored for investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has made a strategic investment in Chongqing Sangui Animation Technology Co., Ltd., acquiring a 51% stake, which marks its entry into the software and information technology services sector [1] Group 1: Investment in Animation Technology - The investment in Chongqing Sangui Animation Technology focuses on AI animation, which is expected to have significant growth potential due to the integration of AI technology in content creation [2] - The collaboration with major platforms like Tencent and Douyin is anticipated to provide support for AI animation, making it a potential new content trend following live-action short dramas [2] Group 2: Regulated Pharmaceutical Business - The company is concentrating on the Australian market for its regulated pharmaceutical business, with a stable supply from its cultivation base in Tasmania [3] - The acquisition of Phytoca Holdings is expected to enhance the sales network and product structure of the regulated pharmaceutical business, with revenue from this segment doubling year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Premium Paper Packaging Business - The premium paper packaging business, primarily focused on cigarette labels and wine boxes, has established a strong market position through advanced anti-counterfeiting technologies [4] - The collaboration with Guizhou Zhongyan has been stable since 2007, with revenue from this client projected to account for 66.14% in 2024, while new clients are being developed to further enhance revenue [4] Group 4: Overall Business Outlook - The company's diverse business segments are expected to provide stable cash flow, supporting the growth of emerging sectors like AI animation and regulated pharmaceuticals [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 1.008 billion, 1.228 billion, and 1.475 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.35%, 21.86%, and 20.14% respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and potential of the AI comic drama (AI漫剧) industry, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges faced by creators and companies in this emerging market [3][6][20]. Group 1: Market Growth and Potential - The AI comic drama industry is projected to exceed 20 billion yuan in market size by 2025, with daily revenue growth of 900% and a 567% increase in monthly production of comic episodes [3][6]. - The production cost of AI comic dramas has significantly decreased, with prices dropping from thousands of yuan per minute to hundreds, while production cycles have shortened [3][6]. - The success of early AI comic dramas, such as "代管截教，忽悠出了一堆圣人," which garnered nearly 40 million views, indicates strong audience acceptance and profitability potential [6][7]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Challenges - Despite the hype, many non-top-tier companies are reportedly operating at a loss, with 90% of them struggling to turn a profit [6][20]. - The industry is characterized by a mix of established companies transitioning from traditional media and new entrants attracted by low barriers to entry and high profit margins [7][12]. - The production process is described as a "lottery," where the quality of AI-generated content can vary significantly, leading to increased workloads for creators who must refine and adjust outputs [16][19]. Group 3: Workforce and Economic Factors - The average salary for creators varies widely, with some earning between 8,000 to 10,000 yuan per month, while others can charge 1,000 to 2,000 yuan per minute for high-quality productions [15][19]. - The industry faces high turnover rates, with many creators leaving due to the intense workload and lack of creative fulfillment, as the focus shifts towards quantity over quality [19][20]. - The competitive landscape is pushing down prices, with production costs for AI comic dramas dropping from 3,000-5,000 yuan per minute to 500-1,000 yuan, forcing smaller teams to take on more work to maintain income [19][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Regulation - The future of the AI comic drama industry may involve a transition from mass production to a focus on quality and diversity, as the market matures [20][21]. - Regulatory measures are expected to increase, with the government initiating actions to address issues like copyright infringement and low-quality content [23][24]. - The industry is at a turning point, where only companies that prioritize creativity, quality, and compliance will likely survive in the long term [21][23].

Core Insights - The rise of AI-driven "manhua" (comic) creation is rapidly gaining traction across content platforms, with a projected cumulative launch of 3,000 AI manhua by mid-2025 and a compound annual growth rate of 83% [1] - AI manhua is seen as replicating the success of short dramas, attracting numerous creators, although the creation process involves various professional aspects that present challenges for newcomers [1] - Domestic AI companies are accelerating their efforts in this sector, with firms like Wankang Technology providing comprehensive support systems for the AI manhua industry, from creative ideation to final production [1] Company Insights - Wankang Technology's products, such as Wankang Tianmu AI and Wankang Miaoying 2026, offer a complete support system for AI manhua production, focusing on low-cost, high-quality video generation and a range of AI functionalities [1][2] - The integration of Wankang Tianmu AI and Wankang Miaoying 2026 creates a new workflow that lowers the overall creative process threshold, enhancing efficiency from inspiration to final output [2] - Wankang Technology is systematically embedding its AI capabilities across various creative fields, building a comprehensive solution that covers the entire creative production chain [2] Industry Trends - As companies like Wankang Technology continue to lower the creative barriers with integrated tools, the production efficiency of AI manhua is being continuously improved [2] - The competitive focus is shifting from tool mastery to the content itself, emphasizing creativity and imagination as key factors for distinguishing successful works [2] - A more creativity-driven and diverse expression ecosystem for AI manhua is rapidly emerging [2]