Hello and welcome to market domination over time. There are quite a few big bullish bets on markets for 2026 on Wall Street. And our next guest says economic tailwinds should support that market sentiment. Here with me at the desk got Bryant Vancronite, Allspring Global Investments senior portfolio manager. Bryant, always good to see you. Let's start here. Brian, you say the US economy should be good enough for stocks in early 26. Maybe start there. Why, Brian? Like what are the drivers? Is it monetary stim ...

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs recommends buying the dips in the market as stocks are off their highs, with expectations of the Federal Reserve potentially cutting interest rates [1][2] - The unemployment rate is around 4%, and the federal government is projected to run a deficit of $1.8 to $1.9 trillion over the next several years, which could support a positive outlook for the stock market [2] Consumer Spending - There is an expectation that the consumer will not "fall off a cliff," with mixed signals from various retailers; companies like Gap and TJ Maxx reported good performance, while Home Depot's earnings were less favorable [7][8] - The National Retail Federation anticipates that consumers will spend over one trillion dollars this holiday season, indicating strong consumer momentum [10] Economic Indicators - The high-income consumer is propping up the economy, while low-income consumers are still under pressure, as noted by Walmart's performance across income cohorts [11] - A weaker-than-expected labor market has contributed to current economic challenges, impacting consumer behavior [12] Technology Sector - The narrative around AI capital expenditures is crucial for market stability; if investor confidence in this area wanes, it could lead to a significant market downturn [13] - Persistent growth and demand in technology, particularly related to AI, are expected to continue despite potential economic downturns [14] Federal Reserve Influence - Future market movements are likely to be heavily influenced by Federal Reserve statements regarding interest rates, with a focus on accommodating market conditions [16]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the AI infrastructure sector, particularly the capital expenditure (capex) trends among major AI hyperscalers including Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Oracle (ORCL) [3][6][22]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capex Growth Estimates**: Consensus estimates for 2026 capex for AI hyperscalers have increased from $467 billion (20% year-over-year growth) to $533 billion (34% year-over-year growth) during the 3Q earnings season [3][6][22]. - **Return Dispersion**: There is a notable increase in return dispersion within the AI infrastructure complex, driven by investor confidence in revenue generation from AI investments and the leverage used to fund these investments [3][6]. - **Future Capex Deceleration**: Analysts predict a significant slowdown in AI capex growth, from a current 76% year-over-year growth rate to 25% by the end of 2026. However, past estimates have been conservative, suggesting potential upside of $200 billion to current estimates [3][22][29]. - **Debt Capacity**: Large public AI hyperscalers have the capacity to increase net debt significantly without raising their net leverage above 1x. They have collectively increased net debt by $295 billion since 2021, with a current net debt/EBITDA leverage of +0.2x [3][22][42]. - **Supply Constraints**: Supply bottlenecks, particularly in power supply, may limit near-term capex growth more than cash flows or balance sheet capacity [54][55]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Investors are increasingly focused on companies that can demonstrate a clear link between capex and revenue growth. Negative reactions to capex surprises could lead management to reconsider future capex growth [55][66]. Additional Important Insights - **AI Platform Stocks**: Companies providing AI platforms are expected to benefit from increased corporate AI adoption, with a focus on those with high labor costs and exposure to AI automation [4][73]. - **Performance of AI Stocks**: The GS AI basket has outperformed the S&P 500 significantly, returning 40% year-to-date, driven by strong AI investment spending [11][15]. - **Investor Concerns**: There is growing anxiety among investors regarding the leverage and cash flow challenges faced by smaller firms in the AI ecosystem, particularly neoclouds [3][60]. - **Corporate AI Adoption**: Nearly half of S&P 500 companies discussed AI in their earnings calls, indicating a trend towards increased AI integration in business operations [68][72]. Conclusion - The AI infrastructure sector is experiencing significant capex growth, but future growth may be constrained by supply issues and investor scrutiny. Companies that can effectively link their investments to revenue generation are likely to be favored by investors. The ongoing corporate adoption of AI presents opportunities for AI platform stocks and productivity beneficiaries.

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The current market is characterized as "weird," where forming a two-sided debate is easier than reaching a consensus view [2] - The S&P 500 has been above its 50-day moving average for 128 consecutive days, indicating a strong performance, yet underlying issues are emerging [3][4] Market Sentiment and Performance - Despite the NDX rising approximately 2% last week and achieving back-to-back monthly gains of around 5%, market sentiment is deteriorating [9][10] - Approximately 70% of S&P companies have reported earnings, with 64% exceeding estimates, which is above the long-term average of 49%. However, the market has not rewarded these earnings beats as expected [12] AI Capital Expenditure - AI capital expenditure expectations have increased by $50–60 billion for the next twelve months, with significant projections for major companies: META at ~$120 billion, GOOGL at ~$122 billion, MSFT at ~$140 billion, and AMZN at ~$161 billion for 2026, marking a 60% increase in expected hyperscaler spending this year [14][15] - AI-related issuance in credit markets has reached $220 billion gross this year, with a significant portion coming from TMT and Utilities sectors [17][18] Consumer Behavior - The consumer backdrop is softening, with signs of fatigue spreading to the 25–35-year-old and middle-income segments. Retailers and restaurants are reporting weaker traffic and sales [19][20] - Digital spending channels remain robust, with companies like Visa and Amazon indicating continued strength among higher-income and online consumers, suggesting a divide between physical and digital consumer behavior [19][20] Future Outlook - GS Research anticipates a growth impulse to increase, providing a tailwind into early next year, although sentiment across cyclical sectors remains subdued [23][24] - A new Low Quality basket (GSXULOWQ Index) has been introduced to identify vulnerable market segments characterized by high leverage and poor profitability, which may serve as a tactical hedge or short overlay [25] Leverage Concerns - The median net leverage for the GSXULOWQ stocks is near 2020 highs, despite current interest rate levels being significantly different from those in 2020 [27][29]

Market Overview - The Dow has reached a record high, while the S&P 500 is close behind, indicating a strong market performance [1] - Current market positioning remains light, suggesting potential for continued rallying [2][3] Investor Sentiment - Deutsche Bank's consolidated positioning report shows a shift from the 70th percentile to the 40th percentile, indicating institutional investors are cautious [3] - Retail sentiment is becoming more extended, with increased leverage observed [4][5] Valuation Insights - Valuations are at "nosebleed" levels, but they are not reliable timing tools; they can remain high or low for extended periods [6][7] - Higher valuations could amplify potential downside risks if growth concerns arise, but better-than-expected earnings can support valuation expansion [8][9] Economic Indicators - Limited economic data is available, but alternative data sources indicate a deceleration in the US labor market [11] - The ratio of cyclical stocks to defensive stocks remains in an uptrend, suggesting optimism about the US consumer outlook [12][13] Market Risks - Signs of frothy sentiment are emerging, particularly in options data, indicating a lack of downside protection [15] - The bond market is signaling a potentially dire growth outlook despite positive economic indicators, such as a 3.8% GDP forecast from the Atlanta Fed [16] Small Cap Performance - The Russell 2000 has seen a rally, but many companies within it are not profitable, and earnings estimates continue to be cut [19][20] - ETF outflows from small caps suggest that the pain trade may push prices higher until inflows return [21] Federal Reserve Outlook - The expectation is for the Fed to cut rates in October, regardless of inflation data, with a long-term goal of achieving a 3% rate by 2026 [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's Q3 2025 financial results indicate a stabilization in performance, with revenue and gross margin meeting company guidance, while the focus shifts to order trends and future operational guidance [7][8][40]. Revenue & Gross Margin - Q3 2025 revenue reached €7.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, slightly below market expectations of €7.7 billion, primarily driven by contributions from TSMC and customers in mainland China [1][28]. - The gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, near the upper end of the company's guidance range (50%-52%), supported by an increase in service revenue [1][32]. Expenses & Profit - R&D and sales management expenses remained stable, with net profit for the quarter at €2.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, driven by improved gross margin [2][38]. - The net profit margin for the quarter was 28.3% [2][38]. Business Performance - Lithography system revenue was €5.55 billion, down 6.3% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 27.3% to €1.96 billion, indicating a shift in revenue composition [3][55]. - The revenue split between lithography systems and services was approximately 70:30, with lithography systems remaining the core of ASML's performance [3][42]. Regional Revenue - Mainland China was the largest revenue source, contributing 42% or approximately €3.16 billion, significantly exceeding the company's previous expectation of 25% [4][56]. - Taiwan contributed around €2.26 billion, accounting for 30% of revenue, reflecting strong demand from TSMC [4][56]. Order Metrics - The net order intake for the quarter was €5.4 billion, a decrease of €1.4 billion from the previous quarter but better than market expectations of €4.9 billion [5][9]. - The sustained net orders above €5 billion indicate a recovery in customer confidence [5][9]. Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, ASML expects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with a gross margin of 51%-53%, both above market expectations [6][12]. Market Context - The current operational phase for ASML is transitioning from a low point to recovery, driven by increased capital expenditures in the semiconductor industry, particularly in storage and AI-related investments [14][40]. - The positive outlook for major clients like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel is expected to boost ASML's performance as they increase capital spending [22][25]. Competitive Position - ASML remains the sole provider of EUV lithography systems, holding over 80% market share, which solidifies its investment rationale [23][60]. - The introduction of High-NA EUV systems is anticipated to further enhance ASML's market position and pricing power [24][60].

Core Insights - ASML reported Q3 2025 revenue of €7.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, but below market expectations of €7.7 billion, primarily driven by contributions from TSMC and customers in mainland China [1][10] - The gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, slightly above the company's guidance range of 50-52%, supported by an increase in service revenue [1][12] - Net income for the quarter was €2.13 billion, a 2.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit margin of 28.3% [1][16] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was €7.5 billion, with a gross profit of €3.88 billion, reflecting a gross margin of 51.6% [1][12] - The company maintained stable R&D and selling expenses, with net income reaching €2.13 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 28.3% [1][16][14] Business Segments - Lithography system revenue was €5.55 billion, down 6.3% year-on-year, while service revenue increased by 27.3% to €1.96 billion, indicating a shift in revenue composition [1][25][20] - EUV and ArFi systems accounted for nearly 66% of lithography system revenue, with EUV revenue at approximately €2.11 billion and ArFi at €2.89 billion [3][22] Orders and Guidance - The net order intake for the quarter was €5.4 billion, exceeding market expectations of €4.9 billion, indicating a recovery in customer confidence [3][5] - For Q4 2025, ASML expects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, above market expectations of €9.2 billion, signaling a strong demand outlook [2][5] Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China was the largest contributor at 42%, significantly higher than the previously expected 25%, driven by accelerated orders for ArFi equipment [3][27] - Taiwan contributed approximately €2.26 billion, accounting for 30% of total revenue, primarily due to TSMC's strong demand [3][28] Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI capital expenditure cycle, with expectations of increased investments from major clients like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [9][10] - The overall sentiment indicates that the "worst period" for ASML is over, with positive developments in the semiconductor industry expected to drive future growth [10][16]

Core Insights - ASML reported Q3 2025 revenue of €7.5 billion, a 0.7% year-over-year increase, below market expectations of €7.7 billion, primarily driven by contributions from TSMC and customers in mainland China [1][17] - The gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, slightly above the company's guidance range of 50-52%, supported by an increase in service revenue [1][17] - Net profit for the quarter was €2.13 billion, a 2.3% year-over-year increase, with a net profit margin of 28.3% [1][20] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was €7.5 billion, with a gross profit of €3.88 billion, reflecting a gross margin of 51.6% [1][17] - Net income reached €2.13 billion, with a net profit margin of 28.3%, indicating stable operating expenses [1][20][21] - Research and development expenses were €1.11 billion, representing 14.8% of revenue, while selling and administrative expenses were €300 million, or 4% of revenue [18][21] Business Segments - Lithography system revenue was €5.55 billion, down 6.3% year-over-year, while service revenue increased by 27.3% to €1.96 billion [1][30] - EUV and ArFi systems accounted for nearly 66% of lithography system revenue, with EUV revenue at approximately €2.11 billion and ArFi at €2.89 billion [2][27] - The average selling price for EUV systems was around €23.5 million, while ArFi systems averaged €7.6 million [2][28] Regional Performance - Mainland China was the largest revenue contributor, accounting for 42% of total revenue, approximately €3.16 billion, significantly above the expected 25% [3][32] - Taiwan contributed around €2.26 billion, representing 30% of revenue, primarily driven by TSMC's demand [3][32] - Revenue from South Korea and the USA remained low due to reduced capital expenditures from major clients like Samsung and Intel [32] Order Trends and Future Guidance - The net order intake for the quarter was €5.4 billion, exceeding market expectations of €4.9 billion, indicating improved customer confidence [5][7] - For Q4 2025, ASML expects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, above market expectations of €9.2 billion [7][14] - The company is positioned to benefit from increased capital expenditures in the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by AI demand and recovery in the storage sector [14][20]

Core Insights - The growth narrative surrounding data centers and AI capital expenditure is showing signs of weakness, raising concerns among investors [2][4] - Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer highlights that the current market may be closer to a downturn than a recovery, suggesting a critical phase in the AI investment cycle [3][4] Industry Analysis - There is a notable shift in investor sentiment as expectations for fiscal and monetary easing lead to increased interest in cyclical and small-cap stocks, although the sustainability of this bull market is questioned if the AI capital expenditure boom falters [4] - Since 2022, hyperscaler capital expenditure has increased fourfold, which has negatively impacted free cash flow growth, with forecasts indicating a 16% decline in hyperscaler free cash flow over the next year [4] Company Implications - Major AI hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are under scrutiny as their free cash flow growth slows, leading to questions about their valuations and the need for stricter return-on-investment discipline from investors [5]