山海：降息环境主导市场，黄金在强势中看变化！ 上周黄金，白银走出极限上涨空间，连续五天均出现大幅度的上涨，这种上涨走势不是一般数据能影响出来的，市场主导因素是美联储降息预期的表 现，以及众多数据利多的影响，在目前，黄金极限上涨至3600高点后，刷新了历史高点，这已经是自有黄金交易以来，黄金价值最高的点位。那么，未 来黄金何去何从，该怎么走请看一下分析。白银依然保持在41.5的高位压制下跌，形成回落，相对来讲，白银的见顶稍微明显一点，等9月17号前后美联 储利率决议公布后预计有较大的下跌空间。本周行情重点关注周四CPI数据影响，市场会有较大变化。 沪银（2512合约）相对沪金来讲也是出现了较大幅度的调整，上周两次在9920做空，两次回落至9700关键点，虽然没有跌破9700强弱关键点，但两次向 下的试探利润空间也不错，所以，暂时的白银应该在多头趋势中，做高空低多的震荡交易。本周沪银也是保持看涨原则，另外9950这个价位依旧可以尝 试做空，只要不破9700就以震荡看待，破位9700再看强弱转换，大的下跌空间。 先下结论，本周黄金的绝对多头强势在3550，本周的多头趋势关键点在3510，关注本周CPI数据影响，以及 ...

Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting signals a potential shift in monetary policy, indicating that the Fed is open to interest rate cuts due to rising risks in the labor market and economic growth slowdown [1] - The current economic environment, characterized by high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, still shows resilience, but significant slowdowns in the labor market and economic growth are evident [1] - The expectation of a rate cut in September could enhance market enthusiasm for gold, as lower interest rates increase the investment appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - Gold prices surged to a high of 3378, driven by rising expectations of rate cuts, increasing economic risks, and a weakening dollar [2] - The market's shift from prioritizing anti-inflation measures to balancing employment and inflation reflects in gold pricing, indicating a potential onset of a loosening cycle [2] - Key upcoming economic indicators, such as the August non-farm payroll data and CPI, along with the Fed's September meeting, will be crucial in determining the sustainability of rate cut expectations and their impact on gold's medium to long-term trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a state of tension, fluctuating between $3,330 and $3,370, as market participants await the outcome of the summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, which may impact geopolitical risks and gold demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight increase on Friday but overall declined by 1.85% for the week [1] - The upcoming summit is focused on the Ukraine ceasefire agreement, which could significantly influence gold prices [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and a low interest rate environment typically boost investor demand for gold [1] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - The short-term focus for gold is on resistance levels between $3,350 and $3,358, while support levels are identified between $3,320 and $3,310 [4] - The recent price action indicates a false rebound, with the market not breaking above $3,370, suggesting that the downward trend remains intact [2] - The ultimate target for gold prices is projected to be between $3,000 and $2,950, with key levels at $3,245 and $3,150 to $3,120 [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, with the annual rate rising from 2.4% to 3.3% and the monthly rate increasing from 0.0% to 0.9%. The core PPI also saw a substantial rise from 2.6% to 3.7% annually and from 0.0% to 0.9% monthly [2] - The increase in PPI and core PPI may indicate a potential rebound in future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, suggesting inflationary pressures could persist [2] - Following the PPI data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in September have diminished, introducing uncertainty into future monetary policy directions [2] Group 2 - The article suggests that despite a seemingly stable economic environment under President Trump's tariff and fiscal policies, significant uncertainties remain in international politics and trade relations, which could lead to unexpected events [3] - The outlook for the U.S. economy is portrayed as less optimistic than some economic data might suggest, indicating potential challenges ahead [3]

Core Insights - Gold prices reached a daily high of $3360 but have not yet broken through the strongest resistance level, indicating potential for short-term pullbacks [1][4] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, showing signs of easing inflation pressure, which may influence Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][3] - The market anticipates a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a 62% chance of another cut in October [2] Market Analysis - The current volatility curve shows a positive slope, indicating increasing market divergence as prices rise, but the weak upward slope suggests a convergence in expected volatility [3] - Gold prices are expected to oscillate within the $3380-$3460 range, with a breakout needed to increase trading enthusiasm [3][4] - Key support levels for gold are at $3330 and $3300, while resistance levels are at $3358 and $3367, with a critical dividing line at $3350 [4] Technical Analysis - The strongest resistance level for gold is at $3360, and if this level holds, a subsequent pullback should be monitored [4] - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase for the next few trading days, with fluctuations anticipated within the $3330-$3360 range [4] - The Bollinger Bands indicate that if gold can maintain above $3370, it may reach a high of $3390, while failure to break this level suggests a weak consolidation outlook [4]

Macro Economic Group - The U.S. CPI for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, matching the previous month but slightly below the expected 2.8% [5] - The core CPI year-on-year for July reached 3.1%, the highest since February 2025, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous 2.9% [5] - Following the CPI data release, the market reacted with a decline in the dollar and an increase in U.S. stock futures, indicating a 90.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [6] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In the first half of the year, investments in key energy projects in China exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with new energy storage projects seeing over 30% growth [8] - The successful completion of an integrated energy system by Shandong Shifeng Group, featuring a 108 MW solar power station and a 100 MW/200 MWh energy storage station, is expected to save 46,000 tons of standard coal and reduce CO2 emissions by 160,000 tons annually [8] - Ford announced a $5 billion investment to develop a general electric vehicle platform, aiming to produce a series of economical vehicles to compete with Chinese electric vehicle giants [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive performance of the US stock market, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, following the release of the July CPI data which was below expectations [1][9]. Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [3]. - Housing costs were the main driver of the CPI increase, rising by 0.2%, while food prices remained stable and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [4]. Labor Market Insights - The average real weekly earnings increased by 1.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in July, with the average hourly earnings rising by 1.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. The average weekly earnings reached $388.01, an increase of $5.51 compared to the previous year [5]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 6.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 93.4%. For October, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.4%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 37.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 59.9% [5]. Stock Market Performance - On August 12, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 483.52 points (1.10%), the Nasdaq up 296.50 points (1.39%), and the S&P 500 up 72.37 points (1.13%). Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached all-time highs [1][9]. - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with ON Semiconductor rising over 6%, Intel over 5%, and Meta approaching a market cap of $2 trillion [9]. Automotive Sector Developments - The prices of new cars remained unchanged due to tariffs, while used car and truck prices increased by 0.5%. Transportation and healthcare service prices both rose by 0.8% [4]. - Tesla's stock rose by 0.53%, with a notable increase in electric vehicle sales attributed to significant price cuts, coinciding with the expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credits [11].

格隆汇8月11日｜周一开盘后不久，美国股市几乎没有变化，投资者准备迎接本周的数据，这些数据可 能决定美联储恢复降息的速度。当前，三大股指微涨约0.1%，CBOE波动率指数徘徊在略低于16的水 平。一系列经济数据将于周二公布，其中包括7月CPI。在劳动力市场降温之际，该指数将为检验关税 对通胀的影响提供一个机会。有机构经济学家表示，这些数据将对美联储9月份是否降息至关重要。 ...

Group 1 - The rapid advancement of AI technology, exemplified by the release of GPT-5, contrasts with the slow adaptation in real-world applications, highlighting significant barriers to practical implementation [2][3][5] - The quality of official economic data in the U.S. is deteriorating, which raises concerns about the reliability of metrics that influence critical economic decisions such as interest rates and social security [5][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection methods have become increasingly reliant on estimations, with 35% of the data being approximated rather than directly collected, indicating potential inaccuracies in economic reporting [6][8][9] Group 2 - The recent non-farm payroll (NFP) report showed a disappointing job growth of only 73,000 positions in July, with significant downward revisions for previous months, marking one of the worst performances since the pandemic [9][10] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continues to use outdated methods for data collection, which introduces various uncontrollable factors that can skew results, such as response rates and the accuracy of reporting by businesses [11] - There is a growing trend in the U.K. towards automated data collection for CPI, utilizing supermarket scanner data to enhance accuracy and coverage, suggesting a potential path forward for improving economic data collection methods [15]

澳洲联储副主席Hauser：昨天的CPI数据非常受欢迎，核心CPI非常符合预期。 ...