Economic Data Releases - The upcoming economic data releases are ranked by importance: US September Non-Farm Payroll Report, Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, and Eurozone September CPI year-on-year [1] US Non-Farm Payroll Report - The US Non-Farm Payroll Report will be released on Friday at 20:30, with a previous value of 22,000 jobs and an expected value of 50,000 jobs, indicating optimistic expectations [3] - Historical data shows that a Non-Farm Payroll figure above 200,000 will boost the US dollar index, while figures between 100,000 and 200,000 have a weaker effect [3] - If the Non-Farm Payroll falls below 100,000, it typically results in a negative impact on the US dollar index, regardless of whether the latest figure exceeds previous expectations [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of October is currently at 89.3%, primarily due to a weak US labor market [3] Reserve Bank of Australia - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% during its decision on Tuesday at 12:30 [4] - The RBA has cut rates three times this year, totaling 75 basis points, with the last cut occurring in August [4] - Australia's second-quarter GDP growth rate was 1.8%, and the unemployment rate is currently at 4.2%, indicating a stable economic environment that supports the decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Eurozone CPI - The Eurozone's September CPI year-on-year initial value will be released on Wednesday at 17:00, with a previous value of 2.0% and an expected value of 2.3% [6] - CPI data is crucial for assessing inflation levels in the Eurozone and is a key factor for the European Central Bank's monetary policy adjustments [6] - If the CPI data shows a significant decline, the likelihood of the ECB restarting rate cuts may increase, potentially impacting the euro's value [6]

Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has faced downward pressure, recently trading around 0.5870 against the US dollar, influenced by a slight rebound in the dollar and declining inflation data from China [1][3] - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, which was below market expectations, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures due to weak domestic demand and oversupply of industrial goods [3][6] - The weak CPI in China may indirectly affect New Zealand's exports, as China is a major trading partner, leading to increased volatility in the NZD/USD exchange rate [3][6] Group 2 - The US CPI for August showed the largest year-on-year increase in seven months, although it was still below general market expectations, raising concerns about future US monetary policy [3][4] - Market participants are focusing on key upcoming economic indicators, including China's CPI and economic performance, as well as the US consumer confidence index, which may influence short-term currency fluctuations [6] - Analysts emphasize the importance of understanding trends and risks rather than relying solely on specific data points for investment decisions, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [4][6]

Core Insights - The U.S. core data met expectations, but the CPI data exceeded overall expectations, locking in a 25 basis point rate cut plan for next week [1] - There is a possibility of further rate cuts in October and December [1] - Today's data may slightly push up short-term inflation breakeven rates on the long end of the yield curve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected U.S. PPI data has no impact on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut next Wednesday being almost certain [1] Group 1 - Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, indicates that the market pricing shows a slight probability of a 50 basis point cut if CPI data is also weak [1] - There are upward price risks due to tariffs, and the current level of policy tightening remains uncertain [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the easing cycle at a more moderate pace during the September meeting [1]

Group 1 - The market for gold and silver has shown limited movement, with gold reaching a high of 3658 and silver at 41.3, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [2] - Today's focus is on the impact of the CPI data on gold and silver, which may alter their current strength [3] - Gold is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with support levels at 3635 and 3620, and resistance at 3660 and 3675 [4] Group 2 - The international silver outlook remains unchanged, with a potential adjustment space if it does not break 41.5, while short-term strategies suggest a buy at 40 support [5] - Domestic gold contracts (Hushen Gold) are expected to continue their upward trend, with support at 830 and a target of 840 [4] - International crude oil is experiencing a low-level rebound, with a focus on resistance levels at 64 and 66 [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, driven mainly by high food price base effects[1] - Month-on-month CPI remained flat, lower than the 0.4% increase in the same period last year[1] - Food CPI rose by 0.5% month-on-month but fell by 4.3% year-on-year due to high base effects from last year[7] Group 2: PPI Insights - August PPI stabilized month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, showing a significant narrowing of the decline[2] - Fuel and black metal prices turned from decline to increase month-on-month, positively impacting PPI[2] - PPI is expected to bottom out and recover, supported by potential fiscal and supply-side policies[2] Group 3: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year in August, continuing its upward trend[7] - Month-on-month core CPI remained flat, indicating stability in core inflation[7] - Prices of durable goods and non-durable goods, such as household appliances and clothing, showed a recovery in year-on-year growth rates[7] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include declining real estate demand and increasing external uncertainties[3]

山海：降息环境主导市场，黄金在强势中看变化！ 上周黄金，白银走出极限上涨空间，连续五天均出现大幅度的上涨，这种上涨走势不是一般数据能影响出来的，市场主导因素是美联储降息预期的表 现，以及众多数据利多的影响，在目前，黄金极限上涨至3600高点后，刷新了历史高点，这已经是自有黄金交易以来，黄金价值最高的点位。那么，未 来黄金何去何从，该怎么走请看一下分析。白银依然保持在41.5的高位压制下跌，形成回落，相对来讲，白银的见顶稍微明显一点，等9月17号前后美联 储利率决议公布后预计有较大的下跌空间。本周行情重点关注周四CPI数据影响，市场会有较大变化。 沪银（2512合约）相对沪金来讲也是出现了较大幅度的调整，上周两次在9920做空，两次回落至9700关键点，虽然没有跌破9700强弱关键点，但两次向 下的试探利润空间也不错，所以，暂时的白银应该在多头趋势中，做高空低多的震荡交易。本周沪银也是保持看涨原则，另外9950这个价位依旧可以尝 试做空，只要不破9700就以震荡看待，破位9700再看强弱转换，大的下跌空间。 先下结论，本周黄金的绝对多头强势在3550，本周的多头趋势关键点在3510，关注本周CPI数据影响，以及 ...

Group 1 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting signals a potential shift in monetary policy, indicating that the Fed is open to interest rate cuts due to rising risks in the labor market and economic growth slowdown [1] - The current economic environment, characterized by high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, still shows resilience, but significant slowdowns in the labor market and economic growth are evident [1] - The expectation of a rate cut in September could enhance market enthusiasm for gold, as lower interest rates increase the investment appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - Gold prices surged to a high of 3378, driven by rising expectations of rate cuts, increasing economic risks, and a weakening dollar [2] - The market's shift from prioritizing anti-inflation measures to balancing employment and inflation reflects in gold pricing, indicating a potential onset of a loosening cycle [2] - Key upcoming economic indicators, such as the August non-farm payroll data and CPI, along with the Fed's September meeting, will be crucial in determining the sustainability of rate cut expectations and their impact on gold's medium to long-term trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a state of tension, fluctuating between $3,330 and $3,370, as market participants await the outcome of the summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, which may impact geopolitical risks and gold demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight increase on Friday but overall declined by 1.85% for the week [1] - The upcoming summit is focused on the Ukraine ceasefire agreement, which could significantly influence gold prices [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and a low interest rate environment typically boost investor demand for gold [1] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - The short-term focus for gold is on resistance levels between $3,350 and $3,358, while support levels are identified between $3,320 and $3,310 [4] - The recent price action indicates a false rebound, with the market not breaking above $3,370, suggesting that the downward trend remains intact [2] - The ultimate target for gold prices is projected to be between $3,000 and $2,950, with key levels at $3,245 and $3,150 to $3,120 [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, with the annual rate rising from 2.4% to 3.3% and the monthly rate increasing from 0.0% to 0.9%. The core PPI also saw a substantial rise from 2.6% to 3.7% annually and from 0.0% to 0.9% monthly [2] - The increase in PPI and core PPI may indicate a potential rebound in future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, suggesting inflationary pressures could persist [2] - Following the PPI data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in September have diminished, introducing uncertainty into future monetary policy directions [2] Group 2 - The article suggests that despite a seemingly stable economic environment under President Trump's tariff and fiscal policies, significant uncertainties remain in international politics and trade relations, which could lead to unexpected events [3] - The outlook for the U.S. economy is portrayed as less optimistic than some economic data might suggest, indicating potential challenges ahead [3]