来源：金融界AI电报 德勤认为，将于明年一月公布的澳大利亚通胀数据，对澳洲联储利率决策越来越重要。德勤经济咨询合 伙人Stephen Smith表示，在澳洲联储决定将现金利率维持在3.60%之后，"所有的目光都将聚焦于11月和 12月的CPI数据"。Smith预计，澳洲联储在接下来的几个月将采取以数据为导向的"观望"政策。Smith认 为，央行面临的问题是，澳大利亚经济目前处于停滞状态，但如果经济增速加快，可能会重新引发通胀 压力。 ...

美联储理事米兰认为，CPI数据要等到下次FOMC会议之后才会公布。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Long-term Perspective on Price Stability - The high growth rate of productive investment, particularly in manufacturing, is a key factor restricting medium-term price stability, and a decline in productive investment is a prerequisite for achieving this stability [1] - In October, economic data continued to support this view, with retail sales and service production growth rates falling by approximately 2-3 percentage points compared to the peak in May, while infrastructure and real estate growth rates dropped by over 10 percentage points [1] - Manufacturing growth saw the most significant decline, with a cumulative drop of 15 percentage points, indicating a faster clearing pace in midstream investments compared to the overall sector [1] Group 2: Current Understanding of CPI Data - The October CPI data exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the previously anticipated -0.1% [2] - The unexpected CPI increase is primarily attributed to fluctuations in food prices and gold, which together accounted for approximately 0.2 percentage points of the CPI change [2] - Despite the CPI increase, it is deemed unsustainable, as the underlying factors contributing to this rise are considered temporary and unlikely to persist [3] Group 3: Economic Sentiment and Policy Expectations - Current economic data indicates that essential consumption and service consumption are closely aligned with economic sentiment, while productive investment, infrastructure, and real estate sectors are lagging behind [4] - Essential consumption growth, excluding highly subsidized durable goods, showed an improvement to 4.2% in October, up from 3.4% previously, indicating a stable performance [5] - Service consumption, measured by retail sales growth in the service sector, recorded a cumulative increase of 5.3% from January to October, slightly up from 5.2% [6] - The expectation is that policies will likely maintain continuity and may even be moderately intensified to stabilize economic sentiment [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Despite warnings from the White House, the CPI and employment data for October are expected to be released soon, although the accuracy may be compromised due to government shutdown disruptions [1] Group 1: Economic Data - The government shutdown has affected data collection, but statistical agencies can still use retrospective questions in household employment surveys and more estimation methods for inflation indicators [1] - October's CPI data may be "less accurate than usual" due to the disruptions caused by the government shutdown [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Federal Reserve - Citigroup economists anticipate that labor market data will remain weak, which could lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, January, and March [1]

Core Insights - The ongoing government shutdown is impacting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with analysts indicating that the September CPI data has reinforced the expectation of a rate cut in December [1] Group 1 - Analysts from the Bank of Montreal suggest that the current environment has established a baseline for interest rates, predicting a gradual decline from current levels [1]

Core Insights - The release of the September CPI data in the United States has led to positive movements in major stock index futures, with Dow Jones futures rising by 0.61%, S&P 500 futures increasing by 0.75%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up by 0.98% [1] Market Reactions - Dow Jones index futures increased by 0.61% following the CPI data release [1] - S&P 500 index futures saw a rise of 0.75% [1] - Nasdaq 100 index futures experienced a gain of 0.98% [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) has shown a positive trend, rising above 0.6500, with the latest exchange rate at 0.6505, reflecting a 0.28% increase. This rise is attributed to optimistic signals in international trade, particularly regarding a potential trade agreement between the US and China [1] - US President Trump indicated that implementing comprehensive tariffs on China is not sustainable and expressed hope for a high-quality agreement between the two nations. However, he warned of a potential 155% tariff if negotiations fail, making the upcoming US-China trade talks a focal point for the market [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, with the Senate failing to pass a funding bill for the 11th time, indicating a continued legislative deadlock [1] Group 2 - Market attention is shifting towards the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set to be released on October 24, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year rise. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 29 is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, which may further influence the AUD's performance [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate has gained some bullish momentum, supported by the stability of the current support level at 0.6475. However, the negative pressure from trading below the EMA50 continues to limit recovery opportunities in the near term [2] - The AUD/USD has failed to break through the key resistance level of 0.6535, with a lack of new catalysts suggesting a potential for continued volatility in the short term. Analysts have identified support levels at 0.6440 and 0.6415, and resistance levels at 0.6535 and 0.6630, indicating the need for investors to monitor upcoming catalysts [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicates that current data signals a poor performance in the labor market [1] - CPI data will be beneficial for the upcoming meeting [1] - If inflation rises and then falls, it should not impact monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to consider interest rate cuts but must proceed with caution [1] - There is an openness to a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting [1]

Key Points - The article outlines important upcoming economic data and events related to commodities and trade, particularly focusing on China's trade balance and oil market reports [1] - Key dates include the release of China's September trade balance data and domestic fuel price adjustments, as well as OPEC's monthly oil market report [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) will also release its monthly oil market report on October 14 [1] - On October 15, China will announce its September Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year and month-on-month changes, while the U.S. will release its adjusted and unadjusted CPI data for the same month [1] - Additional data releases include palm oil export figures and global metal market supply and demand conditions for August [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be published on October 16, providing insights into economic conditions [1]

Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of October 9, the gold ETF holdings amounted to 1013.44 tons, a decrease of 1.14 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On October 9, the spot gold price closed at $3975.89 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.58%, with an intraday high of $4057.76 and a low of $3944.29 [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Statistics - Despite the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September CPI data, although the specific release date is uncertain and will not be on the originally scheduled October 15 [3] - The Bureau has halted all operations during the funding interruption, which delayed the release of the non-farm payroll report [3] - Some employees have been recalled to complete the report preparation, and the decision to release the data is linked to the annual Social Security cost adjustment process [3][4] - The delay in the September price data may postpone the announcement of the cost-of-living adjustments [3]