策 略 研 究 华福证券 部分主题突破后仍维持形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 部分主题突破后仍维持形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速的主 题指数数量分别有 1、29、7、1 只。其中，1 只见底形态的主题指数属于 建筑材料行业；而 29 只突破形态的主题指数中，行业多为有色金属（6 只） 和国防军工（5 只）。7 只主升形态的主题指数中包含医药生物行业（5 只） 和有色金属行业（2 只），而 1 只加速形态的主题指数属于食品饮料行业。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题的交易热度持续下降，对应龙头股收盘价 仍低于 MA60 的位置。我们对人形机器人、 ...

出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：坤 巨头围猎下的云计算市场，昔日"中国混合云第一股"青云科技却陷入多重困境。公司近年来持续交出业绩萎缩、亏损加剧的成绩单，叠加近期股 东接连发布的减持计划，让市场对其未来境遇不免产生一定质疑。 根据国际数据公司（IDC）发布的《中国公有云服务市场（2024下半年）跟踪》报告显示，2024下半年，中国公有云服务整体市场规模 （IaaS/PaaS/SaaS）为241.1亿美元。其中，IaaS市场规模为132.1亿美元，同比增长14.4%，环比增长11.3%；PaaS市场规模为43.7亿美元，同比增 长20.3%，环比增长12.2%。 相较之前，云服务行业本身的复苏态势明显，而AI的崛起则是支持赛道增长的主要动力。但更大的蛋糕实际上只会被头部厂商瓜分，行业的增长 动力并未明显带动中小云厂商在巨头的垄断及价格战中实现突围，青云科技等中小云厂商依然在市场夹缝中应对公司的生存挑战。 一季度业绩再度恶化 持续控费甚至裁员自救 实际上，青云科技也在通过持续控费甚至裁员自救。一方面，本就不高的研发费用一降再降，2021-2025年一季度，青云科技的研发费用分别为 1.35亿元、1.26亿元、 ...

分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 杨逸帆(S0210124110046) yyf30689@hfzq.com.cn 策 略 研 究 华福证券 29 只医药生物主题走出见底形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 29 只医药生物主题走出见底形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 79、38、9、0 只。其中，79 只见底形态的主题指 数多为医药生物行业（29 只）；而 38 只突破形态的主题指数中，行业多 为国防军工（7 只）、通信（5 只）和有色金属（5 只）。9 只主升 ...

截至2025年4月21日 11:00，中证机器人指数上涨0.75%，成分股奥比中光上涨8.12%，鸣志电器上涨5.00%，博众精工上涨4.61%，云天励飞上涨4.10%，瀚川 智能上涨3.53%。机器人指数ETF(159526)上涨0.86%。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月18日，机器人指数ETF近半年累计上涨10.75%。 机器人指数ETF紧密跟踪中证机器人指数，中证机器人指数选取系统方案商、数字化车间与生产线系统集成商、自动化设备制造商、自动化零部件商以及其 它机器人相关上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映上市公司中机器人相关证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年3月31日，中证机器人指数前十大权重股分别为汇川技术、科大讯飞、石头科技、大华股份、中控技术、双环传动、大族激光、机器 人、巨轮智能、拓邦股份，前十大权重股合计占比50.95%。 消息面方面，2025年4月19日，北京亦庄半程马拉松暨全球首场人形机器人半程马拉松比赛举行。北京人形机器人创新中心的"天工Ultra"夺冠。 中泰证券最新研报称，在政策端，"具身智能"首次写入政府工作报告，战略层面高度重视。在产业端，自2022年特斯拉发布Optimus ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the TMT sector has collectively shown "bottoming" signals, with 256 indices indicating a bottoming pattern, primarily within the TMT sector, while 19 indices have broken out, mainly in the downstream consumption sector, particularly in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and warning of peak signals, focusing on quantitative screening of four patterns and constructing trading heat indicators to track popular themes [9][12]. - The trading heat for humanoid robots has decreased to 45%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing being 9.4% below its 60-day moving average, while the trading heat for Deepseek has dropped to 46%, with Daily Interaction's closing price being 17.6% below its 60-day moving average [4][20]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the thematic investment data tracking system will be regularly updated to provide investors with objective references for capturing market trends [3][9]. - The report notes that the majority of the 256 indices showing a bottoming pattern are concentrated in the TMT sector, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in this area [12]. - The report provides insights into the adjustment levels of leading stocks corresponding to the themes being monitored, indicating a need for caution as trading heat declines [20].

Group 1 - The report focuses on a theme investment database aimed at screening high-quality price-volume patterns and capturing the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][8] - The database emphasizes two aspects: quantifying four types of patterns for high-odds theme opportunities and constructing trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes, with recent additions to observe the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][8] - The current issue highlights the number of theme indices showing different patterns: 17 indices showing bottoming patterns, 21 indices breaking out, 0 in main rising patterns, and 5 in acceleration patterns, with a focus on downstream consumer sectors [11] Group 2 - The trading heat for humanoid robots and Deepseek themes has cooled, with leading stocks adjusting below their 60-day moving average (MA60) [3][16] - As of April 11, 2025, the trading heat for humanoid robots has dropped to 50%, with Changsheng Bearing's closing price being 1.8% below MA60; for Deepseek, the trading heat has decreased to 43%, with Daily Interaction's closing price being 12.5% below MA60 [3][16]

Group 1: Company Performance - Yao Cai Securities Financial reported an unaudited consolidated net profit of approximately HKD 613 million for the fiscal year 2024/25, representing a 10% increase from the previous year's net profit of approximately HKD 559 million [1] - The total number of customer accounts reached 587,072 as of March 31, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The Hong Kong financial market experienced significant fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index showing resilience after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of recovery measures [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September marked the end of a prolonged high-interest period, positively impacting the Hong Kong stock market [2] - The Hang Seng Index rose above 23,000 points, with a record single-day trading volume of HKD 620.7 billion, the highest in Hong Kong's history [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Yao Cai Group has maintained a proactive business philosophy, investing in advertising and promotional strategies to attract investors [4] - The company offers competitive promotions for both Hong Kong and U.S. stock trading, including significant rewards for new customers and commission-free trading for the first month [4] - The performance of the U.S. stock market in the first half of the year and the improving conditions in the Hong Kong market contributed to increased customer acquisition and overall business growth [4]

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[5] - The pace of balance sheet reduction (QT Taper) will slow from $25 billion to $5 billion per month starting April 1, while MBS reduction remains at $35 billion per month[5] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2025 was downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate forecast was adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%[5] Inflation and Economic Outlook - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 was revised up from 2.5% to 2.7%, with core PCE inflation rising from 2.5% to 2.8% due to tariff impacts[5] - The Fed's approach has shifted from preemptive rate cuts to a data-dependent strategy, indicating potential delays in response to economic downturns[11] - Current economic indicators, such as a stable unemployment rate at 4.1%, suggest that the economy remains in reasonable condition despite inflation concerns[10] Global Economic Context - The U.S. liquidity situation is tight, with the Fed's total assets reduced to $6.7 trillion, returning to pre-pandemic levels[7] - China's economic challenges are characterized by deflation rather than inflation, with net exports contributing 30% to GDP in 2024, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis[12] - The need for proactive monetary policy adjustments in China is emphasized, particularly in light of potential U.S. economic downturns and tariff impacts[13]

- The quant model used to estimate the activity level of speculative funds showed a decline in activity starting from March 7, indicating a shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks[11] - The GDPNOW model predicted a GDP growth rate of 4.1% for Q1 2025, showing stable marginal changes in macroeconomic forecasts[15] - The informed trader activity index indicated a cautious optimism among informed traders, with the index rising above zero[17] Model Backtesting Results - Speculative funds activity model, IR: 0.5, Sharpe ratio: 1.2, annualized return: 15%[11] - GDPNOW model, predicted GDP growth rate: 4.1%[15] - Informed trader activity index, current value: 0.0025[19] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: EP Value; Construction Idea: Preference for high EP value and high dividend yield assets; Construction Process: Calculated using the formula $ EP = \frac{Earnings}{Price} $; Evaluation: Showed positive returns in the current week[27] - Factor Name: Momentum; Construction Idea: Short-term momentum stocks; Construction Process: Calculated using past price performance; Evaluation: Experienced a pullback in the current week[27] Factor Backtesting Results - EP Value factor, weekly return: 0.5%, monthly return: 1.2%, quarterly return: 3.5%[27] - Momentum factor, weekly return: -0.8%, monthly return: 0.9%, quarterly return: 2.1%[27]

点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 高盛认为，三大电信运营商不仅直接参与云计算业务，还通过为其他云公司提供基础设施服务，间接分享AI盛宴。除了宽 带成本优势外，相比阿里巴巴，三大运营商中中国电信、中国联通云业务收入占比更高；国企背景则让政府机构和国企部 署AI/Deepseek更加利好电信运营商。 硬·AI 作者 |许 超 编辑 | 硬 AI 在高盛看来，三大电信运营商正悄然成为中国AI大潮下的核心受益者。 客户部署AI应用将直接拉动运营商的云业务增长。 阿里巴巴等云计算公司对AI基础设施的投入将增加对运营商IDC和专线服务的需求。 目前投资者普遍担忧运营商的云业务盈利能力较低，可能拖累整体利润率。然而分析师认为， 电信运营商 的云业务相比其他云公司具有明显的成本优势。 首先， 在IDC（数据中心）方面，运营商建有自己的IDC，不依赖外部IDC服务提供商，甚至为阿里巴巴 等其他云公司提供IDC服务，使其云业务的IDC开支较低。 其次，运营商云业务的带宽成本大幅低于其他云公司， 因为运营商使用自有网络基础设施，而其他云企业 需要向运营商支付连接不同数据中心的带宽和专网费用。 对于IaaS业务，如果使用外部IDC和带宽 ...