Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand has improved slightly on a month - on - month basis, supply remains at a low level, and the inventory accumulation speed of the industry chain has slowed down since the second quarter. Low inventory supports the near - end spot price and benefits the long - term peak - season expectations. Due to the US pressure on Chinese refineries during the sanctions on Iran, concerns about overseas crude oil supply and domestic asphalt supply have increased. Coupled with positive signals from China - US trade negotiations, oil prices are strong in the short term, and asphalt prices have risen accordingly. In the medium and long term, with the expected continuous production increase of OPEC, the upward space for oil prices is limited. Currently, the supply - demand situation of asphalt is neutral, and the unilateral price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, while the asphalt/crude oil spread will remain high. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3300 and 3500 [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On May 12, 2025, the prices of BU2506 (the main contract), BU2507, and BU2508 increased by 0.81%, 0.99%, and 1.23% respectively compared to May 9. The prices of SC2506 and Brent first - line also rose by 2.10% and 2.47%. The main contract's position decreased by 2.27% to 10.8 million lots, and the trading volume decreased by 14.61% to 16.6 million lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,120 tons [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis spreads of BU06 - 07, BU07 - 08, Shandong - main contract, and East China - main contract decreased by 30.00%, 29.63%, 29.06%, and 50.75% respectively. The South China - main contract basis decreased by 12.39%. The asphalt refinery profit decreased by 208.10% to - 112.88, and the refined oil comprehensive profit decreased by 20.18% to 342.09. The BU - SC cracking spread increased by 10.28% to - 452.65 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end prices in Shandong and East China remained unchanged, while the low - end price in South China increased by 0.60% to 3340. The prices of Shandong gasoline, diesel, and petroleum coke decreased slightly, and the dilution asphalt discount remained unchanged. The exchange - rate mid - price decreased by 0.04% [2]. 2. Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On May 12, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3669 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day. In the northern market, demand increased slightly, and the prices of Shandong's major refineries rose by 30 yuan/ton. In the southern market, driven by cost and controllable refinery inventories, prices in South China and the Yangtze River Delta rose by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - **Regional Markets**: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3600 - 3730 yuan/ton. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3570 - 3570 yuan/ton. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3350 - 3460 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, asphalt prices in Shandong will remain firm, those in the Yangtze River Delta and South China will remain stable. In the medium and long term, the unilateral price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the asphalt/crude oil spread will remain high [5][6][7]. 3. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing price and position of the BU main contract, the market prices of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong refinery gasoline and diesel [9][10][13]