1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may have entered a small year - end rally. Overseas liquidity has improved with the Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike and the Fed's dovish stance. A - share liquidity has also been enhanced by large - scale ETF subscriptions and the trend of RMB appreciation. The operation strategy is to focus on the policy mainline, use dips for layout, take profits during rallies, and keep a flexible position [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On December 23, 2025, among chemical products, PVC had the largest increase with a rise of 2.679% to 4,714.00 yuan, while yellow soybean 2 had the largest decrease in the agricultural products sector, dropping 7.489% to 3,434.00 yuan [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The central bank introduced a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount personal overdue information. Vanke's 20 - billion - yuan bond extension plan was rejected again, but it won a 30 - trading - day grace period. Precious metals soared on December 22, with gold breaking through $4,440 per ounce and silver exceeding $69 per ounce [6]. - The State Council held a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan". China's December LPR remained unchanged for the 7th consecutive month. The National People's Congress heard a report on the rectification of audit problems in the 2024 central budget [7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed multiple key reform tasks. The draft of the Childcare Service Law was submitted for its first review [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On December 22, the sugar price rose 0.75%. In the short term, it may show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with support near the cost line. One can consider going long on dips [11]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price was flat on December 22. It has entered a volatile pattern, and short - term interval trading can be considered [11]. - **Pigs**: The current hog futures market shows a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. There is a weak rebound opportunity, and one can focus on the reverse spread of monthly spreads [11]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is still bearish, and the reverse spread of monthly spreads can be held [11]. - **Cotton**: On December 22, the cotton price rose 0.39%. In the short term, positive factors dominate, and one can go long on dips with support at 14,000 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - reduction, and the UR2605 contract may run in the range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation, and the main contract continues to be weak [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply is relatively loose, and the coking coal and coke market tends to be volatile [13]. - **Logs**: The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price oscillates between 760 - 800 yuan [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price has broken through the previous range, but the supply exceeds demand. One should not chase the high price and can pay attention to the support near 5,550 - 5,580 yuan [14]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The offset printing paper price has broken through the previous pressure level. One should not chase the high and can pay attention to the support at 4,000 yuan [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper and aluminum market is strong, and they continue to run at high levels, but macro risks should be noted [14]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation and continues to be weak [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil market maintains an interval oscillation pattern, with rebar in the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3,200 - 3,300 yuan [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market follows the trend of the black series. One should not chase the high price at the current high level [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price has broken through the previous range. The short - term upward trend is strong, but the risk of high - level fluctuations increases [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On December 22, the A - share market was strong. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors can short volatility through the short straddle strategy [16]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has shown signs of stabilization. The market may have entered a small year - end rally. One should focus on the policy mainline and keep a flexible position [18].

卢森堡货航货机。 记者 徐聪 摄 在位于襄城县的许昌安彩新能科技有限公司，工业机器人在生产线上精细作业。 牛书培 摄 复杂变局下，河南经济如何乘风破浪、持续前行？ 12月22日，省委经济工作会议在郑州召开，深入贯彻党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，总结今 年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署明年经济工作。 站在"十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五"正待开启序幕的历史节点上，科学研判、精准把脉明年经济形势，成 为牵动河南经济大省挑大梁的关键所在——以辩证思维看待"时与势""危与机""内与外"，在把握大局中找准 方位，在破解难题中开拓新局。 准确研判时与势 观察经济，如同远眺长河，既要看其奔涌的当下，又要明晰它的源头与去向。 从"时"的坐标看，2025年是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，今年主要目标的顺利完成，标志着"十 四五"规划目标任务总体完成。 从"势"的维度看，正如中央经济工作会议所指出，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变。 回顾2025年，全省上下紧扣"1+2+4+N"目标任务体系，一步一个脚印，推动经济运行呈现"稳中向好、趋新向 优、韧性增强"的态势。 融入服务全国统一大市场成效显著 ...

"我们不能盲目追求产量的增长，要看到数字背后的附加值，只有这样才能推动河南由农业大省向农业 强省转变。" 敏捷的行动来自经济大省的主动担当。会议指出，要突出内需主导，挖掘释放消费和投资潜力。深入实 施提振消费专项行动，加快新型消费服务综合体建设，高质量推进"两重"等项目建设，进一步促进民间 投资发展。 "会议提出要优化新能源与智能网联汽车产业生态，以长远的心态来谋划路径，我们才能把步子走得更 扎实一些。" "我提议可以充分发挥手头的资源优势，协调为创新驱动发展搭建舞台，会后我们就可以着手组建工作 专班。" "会上披露的经济成绩单，让我们既倍感振奋又与有荣焉。"省政府驻京办副主任孙兰红说，驻京办坚持 贯彻落实国家及河南招商引资和对外开放合作发展战略、政策，积极宣传河南经济社会发展新成就，下 一步将继续为我省经济社会高质量发展提供坚实信息支撑。 明朗的思路来自会议清晰的奋斗方向。记者注意到，"充分用好优势，纵深推进融入和服务全国统一大 市场"被摆在明年十项重点任务的首位：持续破除卡点堵点，实施营商环境优化提升行动，深入整治"内 卷式"竞争，开展郑州市要素市场化配置综合改革试点，完善"空铁公水"立体交通网络，提升国 ...

明年经济工作总体要求是：坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻落实党的二十 大和二十届历次全会精神，认真学习贯彻习近平总书记视察重庆重要讲话重要指示精神和中央经济工作 会议精神，紧扣做实"两大定位"、发挥"三个作用"，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，主动服务融入新发 展格局，扎实推动高质量发展，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹发展和安全，增强政策前瞻性针对 性协同性，强化改革、开放、创新三大动力支撑，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因 地制宜发展新质生产力，积极融入全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳 企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五 五"良好开局。 12月22日，市委召开经济工作会议，深入学习贯彻党的二十大、二十届历次全会和中央经济工作会议精 神，深学笃行习近平总书记视察重庆重要讲话重要指示精神，认真总结今年经济工作，分析当前形势， 研究部署2026年经济工作。 市委书记袁家军出席会议并讲话，市委副书记、市长胡衡华主持并作总结讲话。市人大常委会主任王 炯，市政协主席程丽华，市委副书记、常务副市长陈新武， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing the Central Economic Work Conference's decisions to stabilize and promote economic growth, highlighting the need for effective actions and collaboration among various departments to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][8]. Policy Implementation - On December 19, the Premier chaired a State Council meeting to arrange the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's decisions, stressing the need for proactive efforts to consolidate and expand the economy's positive momentum [2][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) conveyed the importance of enhancing market stability and encouraging quality companies to increase dividends and buybacks [2][11]. - The Central Financial Office detailed the 2025 economic work priorities, focusing on boosting service consumption in areas like culture, tourism, and elderly care, while addressing infrastructure needs [2][11]. Anti-Competition Measures - The Central Financial Office announced a commitment to address "involution" in competition, emphasizing the need for capacity regulation in key industries and monitoring to ensure the orderly exit of outdated capacities [3][11]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology highlighted that the photovoltaic industry will enter a critical governance phase by 2026, focusing on capacity control and project management [3][11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission introduced standards for clean and efficient coal utilization, mandating upgrades and timelines for projects to meet benchmark levels [3][11]. Training and Development - A seminar for senior officials on the spirit of the 20th Central Committee was held, with plans for five training sessions from December 2025 to April 2026 to deepen understanding and implementation of the committee's directives [4][9]. Economic Strategy - An article in "Qiushi" magazine by the General Secretary emphasized that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move for economic stability and security, advocating for a balanced approach between supply and demand [8][11]. - The article also pointed out the need to enhance consumer demand supported by income, promote effective investment, and improve the income distribution structure to foster a middle-income group [8][11]. Employment and Investment - The government aims to stabilize employment by supporting labor-intensive industries and enhancing vocational training, especially for the record number of graduates expected in 2026 [12][13]. - Investment strategies will focus on addressing existing gaps in technology, infrastructure, and public services, with an emphasis on high-quality urban renewal and effective investment expansion [11][12].

2025年进入"倒计时"。站在"十四五"收官、"十五五"开局这一重要时间节点，2025年河南经济"答卷"备 受关注。 2025年的河南经济发展有何亮点？面临哪些机遇与挑战？下一步发展的新动能蕴含在何处？回望2025 年，我们走得颇为不易，但却步步生花，可以说，河南经济交出了一份"韧性答卷"。 一 如今，郑州机场货运量突破100万吨历史大关。窥一斑而知全豹，今年以来，河南高速公路总里程突破1 万公里，加快构建便捷出海水运通道，努力打造全国统一大市场循环枢纽、国内国际市场双循环支点， 在融入服务全国统一大市场上不断走深走实、见行见效。 二 河南经济发展的底气何在？这源于经济大省的使命担当、近亿人口的内生动力、产业体系的扎实底座。 经济大省的责任担当。作为全国第六、中部第一经济体，河南的体量决定了它不能只算自己的账，更要 为全国发展大局扛稳责任。2022年7月，中央政治局会议首次提出"经济大省要勇挑大梁"。此后，中央 经济工作会议连续3年强化"经济大省挑大梁"这一时代命题。经济大省挑大梁，既是使命任务，也是战 略机遇。河南在"十五五"规划建议中明确，未来5年，经济大省挑大梁作用要更加彰显。 近1亿人口的内需潜力。截 ...

方方面面的担当作为，是党中央决策部署落地见效的保障。从拆除壁垒、打破分割到规则统一、机会均 等，概括起来就是一句话——合力促进经济循环畅通。各地自觉在大局下想问题、做工作，摒弃"一亩 三分地"的思维定式，突破"搞自我小循环"的利益藩篱，找准"人无我有"的特色优势，抱成团朝着顶层 设计的目标一起做，必能将我国超大规模市场的"体量优势"转化为"质量优势"，为构建新发展格局、推 动高质量发展提供有力支撑。 强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依托。近年来，随着全国统一大市场建设的不断深入，许多问题已 经解决，目前仍然存在的卡点堵点都是难啃的"硬骨头"，涉及中央和地方事权、政府和市场关系、地方 经济发展方式转型等一系列复杂问题。在"十五五"时期解决这些问题，是一项极为重要、紧迫而艰巨的 任务。 建设全国统一大市场的过程，一定程度上就是破除经济循环卡点堵点的过程，也意味着这是一场制度建 设的攻坚战持久战。例如，当前隐性壁垒仍未根除，地方"政策洼地"、标准不统一、监管尺度不一等问 题，根源在于一些制度规则的衔接不畅与执行偏差，仅靠市场自发调节难以破解。以制度建设破题， 立"显规则"、破"潜规则"，让市场运行有章可循，让经营主 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 国务院部署落实经济工作会议精神 ——政策周观察第 60 期 近一周，政策出台不多，主要关注以下政策： 1、中央经济工作会议精神落实解读 1）12 月 19 日，总理主持召开国常会，对贯彻落实中央经济工作会议决策部 署作出安排，提出"要靠前发力抓落实，以扎实有效的工作不断巩固拓展经济 稳中向好势头，确保'十五五'开好局、起好步"，去年 12 月 16 日国常会表 述为"要靠前抓好落实，能早则早、宁早勿晚，齐心协力、积极作为，以扎实 有效的工作为全局多作贡献"。 2）12 月 15 日，中国证监会党委传达学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神。"持续 增强市场内在稳定性……引导优质公司持续加大分红回购力度。全面推动落实 中长期资金长周期考核机制，大力发展权益类公募基金，推动指数化投资高质 量发展"。 3）12 月 16 日，中央财办有关负责同志详解 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神， 提出"文旅、养老、托育等服务消费需求旺盛"，"在科技创新、产业升级、基 础设施、改善民生等方面还有不少短板弱项……加快建设停车场、充电桩、旅 游公路等消费基础设施，提高养老、托育、医疗等民生类投 ...

铝类产业日报 2025/12/22 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22,220.00 | +35.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,498.00 | -2.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -120.00 314,299.00 | -10.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -794.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -111.00 151,207.00 | +16.00↑ -11147.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 73,800.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 197,566.00 | -61270.00↓ | | | LME电解铝三个月 ...

中央经济工作会议部署明年工作 ——政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 许冬石：中国银河证券宏观分析师、新发展研究院学术委员会执行负责人 路自愿：中国银河证券新发展研究院区域经济研究员 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 中央经济工作会议部署明年工作 ——政策双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 2025 年 12 月 22 日 分析师 许冬石 ：010-8357-4134 ：xudongshi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515030003 路自愿 ：136-7105-7587 ：luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070001 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 ⚫ 12 月上半月，提示重点关注中央经济工作会议：会议直面困难挑战，明确指 出供强需弱突出。明年宏观政策要求"跨""逆"结合 。货币政策表态更加积 极。同时，会提注重做好统筹内外部均衡 ，在外部压力暂 ...