华见早安之声 市场概述 最热美联储主席人选生变，打击市场的降息预期，三大美股指盘中齐跌、美债价格跌幅扩大、美元跳涨、金银跳水。 三大美股指全周齐跌， 小盘股指罗素2000 连日收创新高、一周涨超2%，连续11个交易日跑赢标普；芯片股总体跑赢大盘、芯片指数涨超1%，CEO强调AI 带来的内存需求后，美光涨近8%，而英伟达回落近0.5%； 全周科技七巨头表现逊于其他493只标普成分股、金融板块累跌超2%。 特朗普打压哈塞特执掌美联储的前景后，十年期美债收益率创四个月新高；美元指数逼近逾六周高位；盘中黄金跌近2%、期银跌超6%，仍连涨两周。 离岸人民币盘中逼近6.96、再创20个月新高后转跌；比特币盘中跌超1%后重上9.5万美元、一周涨近6%。 原油盘中一度反弹近2%，尽管周四大幅回落超 4%，仍 连涨四周。伦锡跌近8%，全周仍涨超5%，伦铜跌超2%，止步四周连涨。 证监会： 坚持稳字当头，及时做好逆周期调节，严肃查处违法违规行为，防止市场大起大落。 税务部门提醒 纳税人对近三年境外所得开展自查。 中国商业航天首次！ 载人飞船着陆缓冲技术获成功验证。 最热美联储主席人选生变， 特朗普称希望哈塞特继续担任白宫顾问；报 ...

Company Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated an investigation into Rongbai Technology for misleading statements regarding a major contract, with the company clarifying that the total contract amount of 120 billion yuan is an estimate and subject to uncertainty [6] - Guizhou Moutai has issued a warning about fraudulent information circulating online that misuses its name to promote false investment opportunities, posing risks of consumer deception and fraud [6] - Guolian Minsheng expects to achieve a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, an increase of 1.611 billion yuan or approximately 406% year-on-year, following its acquisition of control over Minsheng Securities [6] - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of approximately 9 to 10 billion yuan for 2025, citing a slowdown in the growth of new photovoltaic installations and ongoing supply surplus issues in the industry [6] - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 6 to 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, impacted by persistently low product prices and cost pressures [6] - Yanjing Co. plans to acquire 98.54% of Yongqiang Technology through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, with stock resumption following the announcement [6] - Minexplosion Optoelectronics is planning to issue shares and pay cash to acquire assets, specifically 100% equity of Xiamen Zhizhi Precision and Jiangxi Maida, in the PCB manufacturing core consumables sector [6] Investment News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved an adjustment to the margin ratio for financing, increasing the minimum margin ratio for investors from 80% to 100%, effective January 19 [4] - A significant increase in institutional research activity in the A-share market has been noted, with 1,357 institutions conducting approximately 4,897 research visits to A-share listed companies, focusing on sectors such as information technology, industrial machinery, and healthcare [4] - The financing balance in the A-share market has reached a new high of 2.7012 trillion yuan as of January 15, with a net financing inflow of 100.651 billion yuan during the week of January 12 to 16 [4] - Recent statistics indicate that 21 A-share listed companies have disclosed updates on mergers and acquisitions during the week of January 12 to 18 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2026 is experiencing significant activity, with insurance funds acting as a stabilizing force and booster in the rising equity market [2][3] Investment Strategy - The company plans to focus on sectors such as AI, semiconductor autonomy, robotics, and new energy, while also considering financial, cyclical, and consumer sectors for investment [3] - The use of ETFs and other investment tools will be leveraged to enhance asset allocation [3] Market Dynamics - The strong performance of the equity market in early 2026 is attributed to three main factors: macroeconomic recovery, policy expectations, and the influx of new capital [3][4] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with a positive outlook for policies supporting technological innovation and new productive forces [4] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1% in December 2025, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 52.5%, with production and new order indices also showing positive trends, supporting the stock market's upward movement [4] Liquidity and Capital Inflow - Reasonable liquidity and expected inflow of new capital are contributing to market growth, with potential new capital exceeding 70 billion yuan due to regulatory adjustments [4] - The strengthening of the RMB is enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets, with increased participation from ordinary residents through various investment channels [4] Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to experience a steady increase in overall index levels compared to 2025, reflecting a process of core function optimization and market value reassessment [5] - The improvement in corporate earnings, ongoing policy support, and the recognition of Chinese asset value are identified as the three core drivers of market strength [5][6] Corporate Earnings and Policy Support - A turning point in corporate earnings is anticipated, transitioning from valuation recovery to fundamental improvement, supported by favorable policies and the global AI technology cycle [5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive significant investments in sectors like AI and commercial aerospace, with long-term capital entering the market [5][6] International Perspective - China's manufacturing industry has developed a robust competitive edge, with global recognition of high-quality Chinese assets increasing [6]

针对本次收购， 新瀚新材 表示， 根据公司战略规划和经营发展需要，为持续提升公司服务聚芳醚酮 树脂（PAEK）全产业链客户的能力，探索新的业绩增长点 。 【DT新材料】 获悉， 1月16日，PEEK单体龙头 新瀚新材 公告称，公司拟以现金方式收购 汤原县 海瑞特工程塑料有限公司 51%的股权，收购完成后，海瑞特将成为公司控股子公司，交易价格为 1288.26万元（ 海瑞特100%股权评估值为2532.88万元 ），同时 将提供不超过1,500万元财务资助 用于其日常经营。 根据公告， 海瑞特 成立于2013年，注资6800万元，法人姜忠喜，主要从事 聚醚醚酮（PEEK）特 种树脂 和 聚芳醚酮（PAEK） 低熔点特种树脂合成及其改性树脂研发、生产、销售为主的高新技术 企业，具有200余吨/年的高品质PEEK树脂及PAEK低熔点树脂工业化生产能力， 产品主要可用于航 空航天、汽车、电子电气、能源、医疗器械等领域。 目前，公司已授权专利包括 一种制备聚芳醚酮类聚合物的方法 ， 一种聚醚醚酮复合材料及其制备方 法等。2024年，公司营收478万元，2025年1-8月，营收757万元，净利润为负。 从公司发展来说还是 ...

文 任泽平 2026 年 1 月初，我和泽平宏观商学的企业家游学美国，逛了两天 CES ，人山人海，听了黄仁勋、苏姿丰、杨元庆的开幕式演讲，参访了特斯拉、英伟 达、谷歌、斯坦福以及美国创投机构。 如果用一个词来形容，就是震撼！ AI 正在快速改变世界，奇点时刻到来！ 整好赶上马斯克的三小时访谈刷屏： 我们正处于奇点之中，这是一场超音速海啸， 2026 年 AI 智力超越最聪明的人类个体。 巴菲特在 2025 年 5 月的访谈中提到：" AI 的危险不亚于核武器"， AI" 既有巨大的潜力造福人类，也有巨大的潜力造成危 害 " 。随后股神抛售了苹果， 大手笔买入谷歌。 在火爆的CES和硅谷，我看到了未来的AI世界。 一、 AI 的进步太快了，快速改变世界：她来了！她来了！她真的来了！ 在 CES 展，毫无疑问只有一个主题，就是 AI ， CES 展完全变成了 AI 展 ，太火爆了。最火爆的赛道都与 AI 有关，机器人、自动驾驶的展位人山人海。 我们看到机器人进步神速，翻跟斗，打拳击，端盘子，折纸， 360 度自动旋转身体。马斯克放出豪言， 3 年内 Optimus 机器人手术水平超越全球顶尖医 生。据内部见过 ...

Group 1 - The "2026 Shanghai-Hong Kong Innovation Development Exchange Conference" focuses on innovation development, enterprise globalization, and technology cooperation between Shanghai and Hong Kong [1] - Hong Kong is accelerating the establishment of an international innovation and technology center through three major innovation parks, five research institutions, and three "100 billion yuan plans" [1] - The conference featured insights from experts in investment, law, technology, and academia, emphasizing the importance of technology empowerment and the unique story of Chinese enterprises in AI [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) and the Shanghai Hong Kong Chamber of Commerce have initiated the "Hong Kong Business Innovation Development Plan" to explore new opportunities in various cities [2] - The HKTDC plans to support Hong Kong businesses in expanding into new fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and green economy, while facilitating resource connections between the two regions [2] - The Shanghai Hong Kong Chamber of Commerce will continue to focus on the application and commercialization of products in its upcoming innovation project evaluations [2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a rational cooling in the market, suggesting that the economic climate remains a safe haven for investors [1][3] - The bond market sentiment has improved due to recent central bank operations that injected liquidity, leading to a quick recovery in the 10-year government bond yield, which is expected to fluctuate around 1.85% [2][12] - The report highlights the importance of high coupon bond allocations, especially if government bond supply pressures ease in late January, presenting a potential mid-term buying opportunity [12][13] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing a shift back to rationality, with regulatory measures aimed at preventing overheating risks, leading to adjustments in major indices like the CSI 300 [3][10] - The report suggests that after the market returns to rationality, it will benefit a slow bull market and attract funds back to high-growth sectors such as AI hardware, robotics, semiconductors, new energy, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [3][13] - Short-term market indices may still be in a cooling phase, and it is recommended to wait for reduced selling pressure before making new investments [12][13] Group 3 - The report notes that the overseas markets are likely to continue a strong but volatile trend, although geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased uncertainty [13] - Recent adjustments in financing margin ratios by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aim to lower leverage levels and protect investor rights, which may contribute to long-term market stability [9][10] - The report indicates that the A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with daily average turnover rising to 34,651 billion, marking a historical high [20]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on technology sectors and policy-supported areas, suggesting a positive outlook for specialized and innovative companies in the semiconductor and robotics fields [3]. Core Insights - The market is currently experiencing a rotation with clear policy guidance, emphasizing the importance of technology and innovation in driving growth [3]. - The North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 30.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.79 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1548.33, up 0.23% [7]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with 119 out of 288 companies rising, while 165 fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On January 16, the North Exchange A-share trading volume was 30.43 billion yuan, down from the previous day [7]. - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1548.33, with a PE_TTM of 64.92 times, while the specialized and innovative index closed at 2666.88, up 0.46% [7][16]. Stock Performance - The top five gainers included Kema Materials (371.3%), Kaide Quartz (20.3%), and Tietuo Machinery (10.2%) [16]. - The top five losers were Liujin Technology (-13.9%), Keli Co., Ltd. (-11.8%), and Meideng Technology (-9.2%) [16]. Important News - Significant advancements in liquid metal flexible electronics manufacturing have been reported, providing innovative solutions for high-performance and green applications [2]. - The Chinese FAST telescope has made a breakthrough in capturing the evolution of fast radio bursts, marking a significant achievement in astrophysics [19]. Company Announcements - Ximic Technology has been re-certified as a high-tech enterprise, enhancing its innovation capabilities [20]. - Kangbiter announced the lifting of restrictions on 211,500 shares, representing 0.17% of its total share capital, effective January 21, 2026 [22].

Core Insights - The systematic risks associated with Chinese enterprises' direct investment in Germany have significantly increased over the past decade, shifting from opportunistic technology acquisitions to deeper integration within the industrial chain [1] - The investment landscape has transformed, necessitating a transition from broad-scale expansion to a more refined focus on value creation and compliance [7] Regulatory Changes - Since 2016, Germany has progressively strengthened its foreign direct investment (FDI) security review mechanisms through amendments to the Foreign Trade Regulation (AWV), impacting the investment environment for Chinese firms [2] - The introduction of the EU Foreign Direct Investment Screening Regulation in 2019 established a unified framework for FDI reviews among member states, enhancing scrutiny on investments from China [2][3] - Key revisions in 2021 expanded the scope of review to include critical technologies such as AI, semiconductors, and cybersecurity, increasing compliance costs and uncertainties for Chinese investors [3] Compliance Risks - Compliance risks for Chinese companies in Germany have evolved from transaction-based compliance to ongoing operational and governance responsibilities, particularly in light of the European Green Deal and the Supply Chain Due Diligence Act [4] - The implementation of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) has intensified scrutiny on data security and privacy, posing additional challenges for Chinese investments [5] - The upcoming Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) will require comprehensive ESG disclosures, further complicating compliance for Chinese firms operating in Germany [5] Investment Environment Changes - The investment environment in Germany has undergone significant changes due to structural and cyclical factors, with economic growth slowing and macroeconomic uncertainties rising since 2020 [6] - Despite challenges, Germany remains an attractive destination for high-end manufacturing and technology investments due to its skilled labor force and robust vocational education system [6] - Rising energy costs and labor market changes have impacted operational costs, prompting a shift in investment strategies towards clean energy and infrastructure [6][7] Strategic Shifts - Chinese enterprises have shifted their investment strategies from large-scale acquisitions to minority stakes, strategic partnerships, and greenfield investments, reflecting a more diversified approach [8] - The focus has moved towards compliance-friendly sectors aligned with EU policies, emphasizing local employment, R&D investment, and supply chain collaboration [7][8] - The competitive advantage for Chinese firms in Germany will increasingly hinge on compliance capabilities, depth of local integration, and innovation in green technologies [9]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the trading heat of hot themes has reached historical highs, with advanced packaging and equipment themes in the semiconductor sector gaining strength, while the commercial aerospace theme has cooled down. The average daily trading volume of hot themes reached 1.436 billion yuan, with an average turnover rate of 5.9%, marking a historical peak [7][9][12] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of theme rotation, focusing on sectors with strong demand support and concentrated industrial catalysts, particularly in low-tech areas such as domestic computing power, new power grids, robotics, and domestic consumption [4][6][20] Group 2 - In the domestic computing power theme, TSMC's capital expenditure is expected to exceed expectations, boosting demand in the semiconductor advanced manufacturing sector. TSMC's net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to grow by 35% year-on-year, with capital expenditure potentially reaching a historical high of 56 billion USD in 2026, a 37% increase from 2025 [20][25][29] - The new power grid theme sees the State Grid announcing a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, aimed at constructing a new power system. The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China is expected to reach 20% by 2025 and 25% by 2030 [21][35][40] - The robotics theme is highlighted by the participation of Chinese robotics companies at CES 2026, showcasing advancements in various application scenarios. The industry is entering a phase of large-scale development, with significant growth in repetitive and dangerous industrial tasks as well as personalized consumer scenarios [22][39][41] - The domestic consumption theme is driven by government initiatives to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, with a focus on enhancing the domestic market. The report notes the emergence of new consumption scenarios in sports events, ice and snow tourism, and cultural performances, with significant economic impacts [23][43][44]