Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 down approximately 0.3% each [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 171.50 points, or 0.37%, closing at 46,121.28 points [2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 0.34%, ending at 22,497.86 points, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.28% to 6,637.97 points [2] - The materials sector led the decline, while the energy sector rose due to a significant increase in oil prices [2] Economic Data - U.S. new home sales annualized total increased from 664,000 in July to 800,000 in August, a rise of 20.5%, exceeding market expectations [4] - Mortgage applications rose by 0.6% in the week ending last Friday, attributed to a decrease in the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed caution regarding asset prices, indicating they appear to be at "fairly high valuation levels" [4] - Powell emphasized the need for the Fed to balance inflation risks with signs of labor market weakness in future interest rate decisions [4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that further rate cuts may be necessary due to slowing economic growth and consumer spending [4] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee maintained a cautious stance, asserting that the U.S. job market remains stable [4] Individual Stocks - Intel shares surged over 6% in after-hours trading amid reports that the company is seeking investment from Apple [2][6] - Micron Technology's stock fell by 2.8% due to potential competition from Samsung in the high bandwidth memory sector [6] - Freeport-McMoRan's stock plummeted by 17% after announcing that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia faced force majeure, leading to expected declines in copper and gold sales [6] Commodity Prices - International oil prices reached a seven-week high, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.49% to $64.99 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 2.48% to $69.31 per barrel [6] - Gold prices retreated from record highs, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery falling by 1.28% to $3,732.10 per ounce [6]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周二（9月23日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.75个基点报3.573%，3年 期美债收益率跌3.07个基点报3.556%，5年期美债收益率跌3.84个基点报3.663%，10年期美债收益率跌 4.06个基点报4.106%，30年期美债收益率跌4.81个基点报4.715%。 ...

Group 1 - OECD raised global economic growth forecast to 3.2% for this year, up from 2.9% in June [4] - US economic growth forecast increased from 1.6% to 1.8% for 2025, with a significant decline expected in 2024 at 2.8% [4] - OECD predicts US inflation for 2025 to be 2.7%, down from a previous estimate of 3.2% [5] Group 2 - US Treasury yields mostly declined, with 2-year yield down 0.7 basis points to 3.594% and 10-year yield down 1.2 basis points to 4.133% [1] - Global asset management firm East Spring noted that the Fed's dovish shift in September is likely to positively impact the rate market in the coming months [3] - Investors are focused on upcoming speeches from several Fed officials, including Chair Powell [3]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields rose collectively on September 22, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and potential implications for borrowing costs and economic outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Treasury Yields - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 3.36 basis points to 3.601% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield rose by 3.65 basis points to 3.587% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield saw an increase of 2.45 basis points, reaching 3.701% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield climbed by 2.12 basis points to 4.147% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield went up by 2.07 basis points, now at 4.763% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch International Group's interest rate strategists maintain a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds in the short term, anticipating a modest increase in market optimism due to expected core PCE growth of 0.2% [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The anticipated core PCE growth is expected to boost market optimism and lead to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The strategists are closely monitoring opportunities to shift towards a more bearish position on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve shows less concern regarding growth prospects, supported by recent unemployment claims data indicating a stable job market [1] - Inflation data is expected to rebound, with ongoing supply-side pressures suggesting an upward trend in yields [1] Group 3: Yield Projections - The strategists project that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will rise to 4.5% by 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dutch International Group's interest rate strategists maintain a neutral stance on U.S. Treasuries in the short term, anticipating a relatively mild core PCE month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which may boost market optimism and drive down Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - The strategists expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise to 4.5% by 2026 [1] - There is a potential opportunity to shift towards a more bearish position on 10-year U.S. Treasuries at the appropriate time [1] - The Federal Reserve shows little concern regarding economic growth prospects, and recent unemployment claims data indicates a positive outlook for the current job market [1] Group 2 - Inflation data is expected to begin rising, with ongoing supply-side pressures [1] - These combined factors suggest an upward trend in yields [1]

Group 1 - Wall Street analysts have returned to a neutral outlook on gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with 40% expecting prices to rise in the coming week, 20% predicting a decline, and 40% anticipating a sideways movement [1] - Retail investors have cooled their enthusiasm, with 58% optimistic about price increases, 24% forecasting declines, and 18% expecting consolidation, indicating a retreat from previous bullish sentiment [1] - The Shanghai gold price surged to a historic high, increasing by 2.01% to close at 846.5 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the market's interpretation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is neutral, with the dollar index rebounding after a decline [3] - Technical indicators suggest that the precious metals market has entered an overbought condition, leading to a potential pullback as funds may exit due to the "buy the rumor, sell the news" logic [3] - The outlook for the future indicates that with increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, the dual characteristics of "strengthened expectations - compromised independence" in the Federal Reserve's policy path will continue to suppress the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, while geopolitical tensions in Europe and the U.S. will increase institutional demand for precious metals as a safe haven [3]

Group 1 - The silver market experienced a significant drop after failing to break the $43 resistance level, but managed to rebound and recover some losses [1] - The short-term trading dynamics are influenced by the price being above the EMA50, providing support and positive momentum, particularly with encouraging signals from the relative strength index [1] - The U.S. Treasury market's movements have a profound impact on both the dollar and silver, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve influencing market dynamics [2] Group 2 - Recent TIC data shows a moderate net inflow of approximately $2 billion into U.S. securities, despite significant sell-offs by China and Japan, indicating a mixed sentiment among foreign investors [3] - The overall trend suggests that U.S. securities continue to receive reasonable support, which could provide potential backing for U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - Silver prices are currently in a bullish structure, with key resistance levels identified at $42.950 and $43.516, and potential upward movement if these levels are broken [4]

Group 1: H-1B Visa Policy Changes - The Trump administration has signed an executive order significantly increasing the annual fee for H-1B visa applicants to $100,000, raising the entry barrier for foreign skilled workers [1][5] - The H-1B visa is crucial for attracting global talent, particularly in the tech industry, where companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon rely heavily on it to recruit foreign professionals [3][5] - The new policy aims to address the alleged abuse of the H-1B program by companies using cheaper foreign labor to replace American workers, which is claimed to harm the U.S. economy and national security [5][7] Group 2: Impact on Tech Companies - The increased visa fees may lead to significantly higher labor costs for U.S. tech companies, potentially prompting them to relocate research and development operations to countries with lower labor costs, such as India and Ireland [8][11] - Critics argue that the policy could backfire, making it more difficult for U.S. tech firms to attract talent and potentially stifling innovation within the industry [7][11] Group 3: Gold Market Reactions - The U.S. has implemented a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, severely impacting Swiss gold exports to the U.S., which plummeted from over 30 tons to just 0.3 tons, a drop of over 99% [13][15] - This sudden halt in gold exports has created challenges for U.S. gold traders, who are now seeking alternative sources, but other countries like Canada and the UK cannot meet the demand [17] Group 4: China's U.S. Treasury Holdings - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, bringing its total to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [19][21] - This trend of reduction has been ongoing since 2022, with significant decreases in holdings each year, which could lead to increased U.S. Treasury yields and higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government [21][24] - The decline in Chinese holdings may also weaken the dollar's international standing and create instability in global financial markets, affecting capital flows and exchange rates in emerging markets [24][26][27]

Group 1 - Wall Street is betting on a faster and larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a stronger economy and financial markets, although this optimism may lead to potential adjustments in the future [1] - Futures market anticipates the Fed's benchmark short-term interest rate to drop below 3% by the end of next year, significantly lower than the current rate of just above 4% and the Fed's latest median projection of 3.4% [1] - The market's expectations for rate cuts have expanded since May, when investors projected a rate of only 3.5% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment is described as "somewhat overly excited," indicating that if the Fed acts cautiously, borrowing costs may rebound, forcing traders to quickly adjust their positions [3] - Historical lessons show that investor expectations regarding interest rate trends directly impact U.S. Treasury yields and various borrowing costs [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen from 4.01% to 4.14% since the beginning of the month, although it remains below last year's peak [4] Group 3 - Historical experience indicates that market predictions about interest rate paths do not always materialize, as seen last September when strong employment data led to a significant rebound in Treasury yields after initial aggressive rate cut bets [7] - Investors are closely monitoring the unique circumstances surrounding the Fed's potential rate cuts, particularly in light of political pressures from former President Trump [8] - Despite political factors, market indicators suggest that investors do not believe the Fed will cut rates excessively due to inflation risks, as inflation expectations remain manageable [8]