分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 市场回顾： 上周（2025.09.08-2025.09.12）债市持续调整，1年期国债收益率上行0.41BP至1.40%，10年期国 债收益率上行4.1BP至1.86%，30年期国债收益率上行7.15BP至2.18%。具体来看，前半周，受公募基金降费新 规影响（2025年9月5号，中国证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》）市场 对债基的悲观情绪升温，收益率快速上行，后半周，随着资金面边际转松，债市逐渐企稳。 公募基金市场动态： 9月12日，国家发改委发布《关于进一步做好基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs） 常态化申报推荐工作的通知》（下称"782号文"），从推动市场扩围扩容、优化扩募和申报流程、鼓励新类型项 目上市等方面助力基础设施REITs发展。 泛固收基金指数表现跟踪 货币增强指数：上周收涨0.03%，成立以来累计录得4.05%的收益。 短期债基优选：上周收跌0.01%，成立以来累计录得4.18%的收益。 中长期债基优选：上周收跌0.20%，成立以来 ...

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in the US stock market were driven by employment data, initially causing a decline due to recession fears, followed by a rebound as the market anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to support economic growth [2][3] - Major US indices showed significant changes: S&P 500 dropped by 1.60% last week but rose by 1.47% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.24% and then increased by 1.95% [3] - The concept of "rate cut trading" and "recession trading" reflects market reactions to economic data, with the former indicating expectations of lower interest rates and the latter signaling concerns about economic downturns [3] Group 2 - Historical analysis reveals that the US has experienced three significant rate cut cycles since 2000, each initiated during economic difficulties [6][8] - The first rate cut cycle (2001-2003) was marked by the burst of the internet bubble and subsequent economic challenges, leading to a total reduction of 550 basis points in the federal funds rate [14][12] - The second cycle (2007-2008) was triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, with the rate cut reaching a historic low of 0.25% after a cumulative reduction of 500 basis points [18][16] - The third cycle (2019-2020) was characterized by a relatively stable economy, with rate cuts primarily aimed at preemptively addressing trade tensions and economic slowdown, culminating in a total reduction of 225 basis points [25][22] Group 3 - Asset performance during these rate cut cycles showed consistent trends: equity markets typically declined during the rate cuts due to underlying economic challenges, while fixed income and gold assets generally appreciated [30][31] - Current economic indicators suggest that the likelihood of a severe recession is lower compared to previous cycles, potentially reducing the risk of significant declines in equity markets during the upcoming rate cut [40][39] - The anticipated rate cuts may negatively impact the US dollar index, as increased money supply typically leads to currency depreciation [41]

Market Review - The bond market experienced fluctuations with rising yields during the week of July 21-25, 2025. The China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) fell by 0.39%, while the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) decreased by 0.44%. Yields on government bonds across various maturities rose, with the 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields increasing by 3.38bp, 6.64bp, 9.14bp, and 7.07bp respectively [12][13] - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 109.5 billion yuan, with a total of 21.563 trillion yuan injected and 20.468 trillion yuan withdrawn. The overall liquidity was balanced, with DR007 and R007 rising by 14.56bp and 18.65bp to 1.65% and 1.59% respectively [13] - The U.S. Treasury market showed limited volatility, with a flattening yield curve. Initial jobless claims data unexpectedly declined, reinforcing a strong labor market view and reducing recent rate cut expectations [14] Public Fund Market Dynamics - As of July 25, 2025, the total scale of bond ETF products in the market surpassed 500 billion yuan, reaching 510.505 billion yuan, a nearly 200% increase since the beginning of the year. The Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF has become a core growth driver, with the first batch of 10 products launched after the Lujiazui Forum in June, achieving over 100 billion yuan in the first week [16][17] - The bond ETF market features a diverse range of products, with significant growth in various categories. For instance, the Pengyang 30-Year Treasury ETF exceeded 20 billion yuan, and the Bosera CSI Convertible Bond ETF surpassed 40 billion yuan [17] - The bond ETF market's growth indicates a deep integration of finance and technology, with ongoing product innovation and an optimized investor structure expected to inject sustained momentum into the high-quality development of China's capital market [17] Performance Tracking of Fixed Income Funds - Short-term bond fund index fell by 0.08% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.00% since inception [19] - Medium to long-term bond fund index decreased by 0.30%, with a cumulative return of 6.32% since inception [19] - Convertible bond fund index rose by 2.24%, achieving a cumulative return of 15.09% since inception [19]

发布日期:2025年4月25日 分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 分析师：冯思诗 登记编号：S0890524070001 分析师：顾昕 登记编号：S0890524040001 证券研究报告一 公募基金专题报告 如何进行资产配置? 2025Q1泛固收类基金季报点评 分析师:孙书娜 执业证书编号:S0890523070001 分析师:冯思诗 执业证书编号:S0890524070001 分析师:顾斯 执业证书编号:S0890524040001 ▶销售服务电话: 021-20515355 ▶请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 目录/CONTENTS HWABAD SECURITIES 固收型公募基金202501季报数据解读 1 固收型重点基金2025Q1后市展望观点 2 汇总 固收类基金2025一季报数据回顾：业绩 2025Q1业绩:2025Q1,在A股市场的亮眼表现之下,含权固 收+基金获得良好表现,并且呈现出权益仓位越高、整体业 绩表现更优的特征。同时由于债券市场在2024年12月过度抢 跑了降准降息预期、市场资金面偏紧以及股债路晓板效应的 共同作用下,纯债型产品出现显著回撤。在久期乘数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, with the strong performance of the A-share market, fixed-income + funds with equity exposure performed well, showing a trend that the higher the equity position, the better the overall performance. Meanwhile, pure bond products experienced significant drawdowns due to multiple factors. QDII bond funds rose driven by the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate and the decline of short-term US bond yields [3]. - Most fund managers believe that the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend in Q2 2025, with opportunities in the medium and short - end. The stock market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the convertible bond market has certain differences in views [35][37][39]. Summary According to the Directory 1.固收型公募基金2025Q1季报数据解读 Performance - In Q1 2025, fixed - income + funds with equity exposure performed well, and the higher the equity position, the better the performance. Pure bond products had significant drawdowns, and passive index bond funds performed worse than medium - and long - term pure bond funds and short - term pure bond funds. QDII bond funds rose [3]. - The average Q1 2025 reinstated unit net value growth rates of different types of funds are as follows: convertible bond funds 2.72%, international (QDII) bond funds 2.02%, flexible allocation funds 1.09%, partial debt hybrid funds 0.45%, hybrid bond funds (secondary) 0.39%, money market funds 0.34%, hybrid bond funds (primary) 0.29%, short - term pure bond funds 0.19%, medium - and long - term pure bond funds - 0.10%, enhanced index bond funds - 0.17%, passive index bond funds - 0.26%, REITs - 0.29% [5]. Scale - As of the end of Q1 2025, fixed - income + funds received significant capital inflows, with secondary bond funds having the fastest scale growth [6]. Leverage - As of March 31, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, the overall fund leverage showed a downward trend [8]. Duration - As of March 31, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, the fitted durations of pure bond funds all showed a downward trend [11]. Equity - related Position Changes - As of the end of Q1 2025, the convertible bond positions of different types of fixed - income funds with equity exposure all showed a downward trend. The changes in stock positions were divergent, with the stock positions of primary and secondary bond funds with relatively low position centers increasing, while those of convertible bond funds with relatively high position centers decreasing [15]. Stock Industry Changes (Active) - The top five industries with increased holdings are non - ferrous metals, steel, commerce and retail, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The top five industries with reduced holdings are transportation, construction, coal, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals [18]. Individual Stock Heavy - holdings - The top ten heavily - held stocks in Q1 2025 by market value are Zijin Mining, Yangtze Power, Midea Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, Yili Group, China CITIC Bank, and Haier Smart Home [20]. - The top ten heavily - held stocks in Q1 2025 by the number of holding funds are Zijin Mining, Midea Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, Yangtze Power, Luxshare Precision, China Merchants Bank, China Mobile, and Yili Group [21]. Individual Stock Increases - The top stocks with increased market value in Q1 2025 are Zijin Mining, China CITIC Bank, Kweichow Moutai, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba - W, etc. The top stocks with an increased number of holding funds are Zijin Mining, BYD, Alibaba - W, etc. [23]. Individual Stock Decreases - The top stocks with reduced market value in Q1 2025 are China Shenhua, Postal Savings Bank of China, PetroChina, etc. The top stocks with a reduced number of holding funds are China Shenhua, CNOOC, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, etc. [25][26]. Convertible Bond Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the convertible bond holdings of the fixed - income funds decreased slightly. The funds generally reduced their holdings of bond - biased convertible bonds and increased their holdings of balanced convertible bonds [27]. - Compared with Q4 2024, the industries with the largest increase in holdings in Q1 2025 are basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, and electronics. The industries with the largest decrease in holdings are banks, transportation, and automobiles. Fixed - income + funds are overweight in basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and machinery compared with the CSI Convertible Bond Index [29]. - Funds significantly increased their holdings of convertible bonds rated between A+ and AA+. They moderately reduced credit quality to select individual bonds after the overall valuation of convertible bonds increased [31]. 2. 固收型重点基金2025Q1后市展望观点汇总 Short - term Bond Funds - Most fund managers believe that the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend in Q2 2025, especially with possible supportive monetary policies, the capital market may become more liquid. Structurally, they are optimistic about the certainty opportunities in the medium and short - end [35]. Medium - and Long - term Bond Funds - Most fund managers believe that with increasing external uncertainties, the internal economic momentum needs continuous fiscal and monetary policy support. Monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, and the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend. Some fund managers advocate active trading to increase returns, while others are optimistic about coupon opportunities [37]. Fixed - income Funds with Equity Exposure - Stock assets: The stock market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the future, attention will be paid to the mid - term repair trend of fundamentals, leading stocks with strong competitiveness, stable patterns but significantly compressed valuations, as well as the allocation value of dividend assets and technology growth [39]. - Convertible bond assets: There are differences in views on the convertible bond market. On one hand, as the convertible bond market adjusts with the stock market, the previous high valuations have improved, and the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is gradually increasing. On the other hand, the absolute price and relative valuation of convertible bonds are still at a high level, and some fund managers mainly allocate to bond - biased convertible bonds [39]. - Pure bond assets: They still have good allocation value. It is expected that the upward space of medium - and short - term interest rates is limited in Q2 2025, and the volatility of long - term interest rates may increase. Credit bonds are considered the main investment direction [39]. High - position Convertible Bond Enhancement Funds - Most fund managers believe that the convertible bond market has returned to a reasonable valuation. Structurally, they focus on diversified investment and select investment opportunities that are in line with the market trend and benefit from policies [42]. QDII Bond Funds - Global uncertainties and disturbances may continue. The impact of tariffs is still unclear, and the market may not fully price in the risks. In Q2, US Treasury bonds may decline under recession trading, but there is a high probability of two - way fluctuations in the short term. Credit allocation should focus on high - grade, medium - and short - duration bonds [43][44][45]. Public REITs - Rental housing: The overall performance remained stable in Q1 2025, with small fluctuations in occupancy rates [46]. - Industrial parks: Market demand continued to be under pressure, with occupancy rates of most industrial park REITs falling below 80% [47]. - Consumption: The performance of consumer infrastructure projects was stable, with occupancy rates generally above 90% [48]. - Transportation: There was significant differentiation in Q1 2025, with some projects recovering and others performing poorly [49]. - Warehousing and logistics: There was an obvious "quantity - for - price" phenomenon, with occupancy rates remaining high but rents decreasing, leading to a slight decline in operating income [50]. - Energy and environmental protection: The performance of different underlying assets was differentiated [51].