Group 1 - The US Dollar Index has increased by approximately 40 points, currently reported at 97.26 [1] - US stock futures have shown a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.3% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.261%, reflecting a decrease of 0.029 (-0.68%) [4][5] Group 2 - Spot gold has decreased by approximately $15, currently priced at $3334.40 per ounce [1]

美国国债2/10年期收益率曲线在就业数据公布后趋于平坦，最新差距为45.9个基点，此前为49.1个基 点。 ...

美国国债和英国国债在美国就业数据公布后回吐涨幅。 ...

美国10年期国债收益率上涨6.7个基点，至4.359%。 美国10年国债收益率 ...

智通财经7月3日电，强劲的6月份就业数据公布后，美国国债下跌。 ...

周三他"吹嘘"道："特朗普事事正确"，其"大而美法案将成为史上最成功的立法之一"，还称政府释放 了"前所未有的经济增长"，把美国从去年那个"死气沉沉、毫无希望"的国家彻底改造。 如果ADP最新就业数据能作参考，周四的Truth Social恐怕会很"热闹"，北京时间20:30公布官方的6月非 农就业数据。 ADP数据引发市场担忧，特朗普或迁怒美联储 ADP虽非官方数据的完美预测指标，却也非完全不可靠。其惨淡读数令投资者坐立不安——他们确实应 该如此：若经济急剧放缓，不难猜到特朗普周四会说什么——他大概率会把责任全推给美联储及其主席 鲍威尔。 就在几天前，总统还"吹嘘"称："杰罗姆·'太迟'·鲍威尔及其整个委员会该为未大幅降息感到羞耻"，并补 充说利率"应该"降到1%甚至更低。而当前利率为4.25%至4.5%。 既然前推特（Twitter）上的帖子被称为"推文（tweet）"，那特朗普在Truth Social上的发帖是不是可以 叫"吹嘘（toot）"？毕竟这位美国总统总用这个自家的媒体平台自吹自擂。 尽管经济背景看起来还不算糟糕，但布里尔表示，近期的就业数据已显示出足够多的警示信号，暗示美 联储应"走在前面" ...

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, local government bond issuance accelerated, with a total of approximately 5.5 trillion yuan issued, representing a year-on-year increase of about 57% [1][2] - New special bonds issued amounted to approximately 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%, while refinancing bonds reached about 2.9 trillion yuan, up approximately 73% [1][2] - More than half of the funds from local government bonds were used for refinancing old debts, which alleviated current fiscal pressures and allowed local governments to focus more on development and livelihood projects [2][3] Group 2 - The issuance of refinancing bonds was driven by two main factors: the replacement of hidden debts and the reliance on refinancing bonds to repay about 90% of maturing local government bond principal [2][3] - The average issuance term of local government bonds has continued to extend, with an average interest rate of 1.95%, significantly lower than the previous year's level of 2.29%, which helps reduce financing costs [9][10] - The Ministry of Finance has indicated plans to expedite the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government special bonds to support economic stability and growth [10]

订阅美联储动态 +订阅 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 美国财长警告 关税可能会回升至4月2日水平 金十数据7月3日讯，美国财长贝森特警告美国的贸易伙伴不要延长贸易谈判，称如果没有取得进展，关 税可能会回升到4月2日的水平。贝森特透露，他今天将与欧盟谈判代表会面。当被问及讨论的结果时， 他只是说，"我们将看看与欧盟会发生什么。"在美国债务问题上，贝森特表达了对市场需求的信心。他 称"对美国国债的需求很大，"国内外对美国国债的需求依然强劲。他将债务管理过程描述为"有条不 紊"。贝森特还对利率发表了评论，暗示"两年期国债告诉你隔夜利率过高"，且"通胀预期应该会回 落"。他批评了美联储，称该委员会的判断"似乎有点偏差"。关于美联储的运作，贝森特表示，"对美联 储来说，控制开支是有益的"，他希望"看到美联储合理调整预算规模"。当被问及他是否希望美联储主 席鲍威尔辞职时，贝森特拒绝给出具体回应。他指出，有"很多强有力的美联储主席候选人"，并提到 了"明年填补两个美联储董事会职位"的可能性。 ...

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley indicates that the upcoming non-farm payroll report may reignite concerns about US economic growth, with expectations of a 110,000 increase in employment for June, down from 139,000 in May, and an anticipated rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [1] - UBS notes that the 20% tariffs imposed by the US on Vietnamese goods are at the lower end of expectations, and the details of the trade agreement will be crucial for assessing its economic impact on Vietnam [2] - DBS Bank suggests that while the US-Vietnam trade agreement reduces risks for Vietnam's economic growth, it may not prevent a slowdown in the coming quarters due to a lack of details in the agreement [2] Group 2: Currency and Inflation - ING predicts that the dollar may experience a temporary rebound as tariffs drive inflation, potentially delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The report anticipates that the euro to dollar exchange rate may briefly fall to the 1.13-1.15 range, and the yen to dollar rate may drop to 145-150, indicating a decline of about 4% for both currencies [3] Group 3: US Debt and Interest Rates - Capital Economics forecasts challenges for US Treasury bonds for the remainder of the year, despite recent strong performance, as the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts may hinder further gains [4] - The report highlights that Fed Chair Powell's comments suggest a reluctance to cut rates until there is clear evidence of economic stability [4] Group 4: European Economic Policy - ANZ Bank expects the European Central Bank to be close to the bottom of its interest rate cycle, predicting a 25 basis point cut in September [5] - The ECB has reduced rates by 200 basis points over the past year, and the current neutral policy rate range is estimated to be between 1.50% and 2.50% [5] Group 5: Chinese Market Insights - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the Chinese stock market has upward potential due to domestic innovation and a decrease in risk-free rates, with a shift in the RMB's depreciation expectations to stability or slight appreciation [6] - CITIC Securities reports a significant divergence in the monetary policy stance among the 12 voting members of the Federal Reserve, which may influence future policy decisions [7] Group 6: Nuclear Power and Technology - CITIC Securities anticipates a new wave of nuclear power construction globally, driven by the need for stable clean energy and the recovery of the nuclear industry [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of nuclear power in energy transition and carbon neutrality efforts, with China leading in newly approved nuclear units [8] Group 7: Investment Opportunities in Technology - CITIC Securities recommends focusing on AI-related investment opportunities, particularly in AI agents and computing power sectors, as the computer industry is expected to see steady growth [9] - The report highlights the potential for structural opportunities in various technology sectors, including cross-border payments and industrial software [9]

美国财长贝森特：国内外对美国国债的需求都非常强劲。 ...