周四（7月3日），韩元兑美元最终跌0.60%，报1364.54韩元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that if the EUR/USD exchange rate reaches 1.20, it would provoke significant reactions from Europeans [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the sensitivity of European stakeholders to fluctuations in the euro against the dollar [1]

市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Interest Rates 市场洞察 | 市场 | 利率 Hong Kong: How much would Hibor rise? | GS EM Marketstrats ⾹港：Hibor 会涨多少？| ⾼盛新兴市场 策略 Earlier this week, HKMA spent another US$2.5bn defending the peg at 7.85, after spending US$1.2bn last week. This means Aggregate Balance (AB) will decline to HKD144bn (vs peak of HKD173bn) but is still well above pre-May level of HKD44bn, indicating liquidity remains flush. The rise of front-end Hibor has been limited from r ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 0.93%, currently at 144.99, following the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll report, and has continued to fluctuate at high levels [1] - U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Faulkender highlighted that the issue with Japan pertains to "non-tariff barriers" [1]

| 投资者关系 | □分析师会议□媒体采访 □业绩说明会 特定对象调研 | | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动□现场参观 □其他 | | 参与单位名称 | Point 72-Ricky Tsang、Miriam Lu、Christina Cong，中信证券-冯重光、张政，国惠基金 | | 及人员姓名 | 曹楠楠、毕瑞泽，富达国际-关向欣、董如枫、盛楠，开源证券-吕明、张霜凝，泰康资管 | | | -王琦，嘉实基金-黄福大，大家资管-张萌、钱怡，平安基金-李景瀚，长城基金-韩林 | | 时间 | 2025年7月3日 | | 地点 | 线上：腾讯会议、Zoom | | | 线下：中山 | | 上市公司 接待人员姓名 | 董事会秘书方玲玲 | | | 参加公司组织的调研活动（线下）的来访人员按深交所规定签署了《承诺书》。 | | | 投资者与公司的交流情况： | | | 问：特朗普发文称与越南达成的关税协议，新的关税政策对公司业务有何影响？客户将 | | | 如何与制造商分担关税成本？ | | | 答：美国对越南最新关税政策的细则目前尚未完全明确，仍需等待后续的信息。以往关 | ...

美元兑日元上涨1%，至145.10。 ...

美元兑日元日内上涨1%至145.10。 ...

美元兑日元USD/JPY日内涨超1%，至145.18。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Clients believe that China's growth target of around 5% is likely to be achieved due to resilient export demand, although concerns exist about a significant slowdown in exports after the summer [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the real estate market, with expectations of continued declines in housing prices and a contraction in real estate investment extending into next year [1] - Many clients anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation may remain negative for the year, and there is little hope for additional policy stimulus unless economic data deteriorates rapidly [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Clients express concerns about potential escalation in trade tensions as the July 9 deadline approaches, but most believe that the peak of uncertainty has passed [2] - Despite trade uncertainties, some international clients are increasing investments in Chinese production infrastructure due to cost efficiency and product quality advantages [2] - Investors expect the USD/CNY exchange rate to remain stable, although there are notable downside risks, with many anticipating a further weakening of the dollar in the medium term [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a low-yield and low-volatility environment, investors are seeking alternative investment opportunities, with some asset management firms increasing their equity allocations for better returns [3] - The upcoming QDII quota issuance allows qualified investors to expand their investments in overseas securities, with attention on potential improvements to the interconnectivity mechanism during the upcoming Bond Connect anniversary summit [3] Group 4: Views on U.S. Interest Rates - There is a divergence in client views regarding U.S. fiscal risks, with some preferring tactical trading in the middle of the yield curve while others are increasing holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 20-year bonds, due to attractive yields [5] - Clients are considering hedging duration risk as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.3% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]