Gold Market - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 94.4%, and in July, it is 74.9%, indicating a low likelihood of short-term rate cuts, which may pressure gold prices [2] - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US under pressure, while Japan is set to hold the fourth round of tariff talks with the US on the 30th, suggesting a cooling of trade tensions [2] - Analysts warn of further risks of gold price declines due to reduced safe-haven demand and the recent bearish market trend, with key resistance at $3328 and support at $3285 [2] Oil Market - OPEC+ has not yet discussed increasing oil production by 410,000 barrels per day ahead of their upcoming meetings, which may impact oil prices negatively [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties remain, with Germany lifting restrictions on military aid to Ukraine and Iran preparing for potential actions against Israel, which may limit the downside for oil prices [3] Copper Market - Recent trading shows a decline from high levels, with a warning of further potential drops; support may be found at the 62-day moving average [7] Nikkei 225 Index - The index has shown strong upward movement, closing positively, and has regained its position above the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for further gains [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant decline in gold prices, attributed primarily to the strengthening of the US dollar, which has reduced gold's appeal to holders of other currencies [1][3] - Gold prices fell to $3306.78 per ounce, down 1.07% from an opening price of $3343.63, with a daily high of $3349.78 and a low of $3292.38 [1][3] - The US dollar index rebounded strongly, reaching a high of 99.42, with a daily increase of 0.4%, marking its best performance in nearly two weeks [3] Group 2 - Investor caution is heightened due to uncertainties surrounding the US fiscal outlook, with concerns that government debt may increase by an additional $3.8 trillion over the next decade [3] - Despite worries about rising government debt, there has not been a surge in safe-haven buying of gold, as the market is more focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led traders to bet on a potential resumption of interest rate cuts after September, but gold may continue to face pressure from the high interest rate environment in the meantime [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has indicated a cautious approach, preferring to wait for clearer signals from fiscal and trade policies as well as economic responses before making further interest rate decisions [1] - Market expectations have shifted, with traders withdrawing bets on a rate cut in June, anticipating a pause in policy until the July meeting [1] - Futures market positions suggest a probability of over 50% for a rate cut by the end of September, indicating a bet on either easing inflation or worsening economic conditions necessitating further stimulus [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index faces a test after six consecutive days of gains, with market attention on earnings reports, Federal Reserve interest rate policies, and international trade dynamics [1] - Home improvement retail giant Home Depot maintains its full-year performance guidance, expecting total sales to grow by 2.8%, with no plans for price increases despite tariff hikes [1] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded strongly over the past five weeks, currently only 3% below its historical high, indicating a potential bull market [1] Group 2 - Investors currently expect less than a 10% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on June 17-18, with expectations for two 25 basis point cuts by year-end, down from four cuts anticipated at the end of April [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic also indicated a reluctance to adjust interest rates for some time [3]

Price Trends - Domestic gold prices have turned downward again, with most declines around 4 yuan per gram, while the highest price from Chow Sang Sang dropped by 6 yuan per gram to 982 yuan per gram, making it one of the highest priced stores today [1][3] - Shanghai China Gold remains unchanged at 943 yuan per gram, maintaining its position as the lowest priced store [1][3] - The price gap between different gold stores has narrowed to 39 yuan per gram [1] Specific Store Prices - The latest gold prices from various brands are as follows: - Lao Miao Gold: 977 yuan per gram, down 5 yuan - Liufeng Gold: 982 yuan per gram, down 4 yuan - Chow Tai Fook Gold: 982 yuan per gram, down 4 yuan - Zhou Lifu Gold: 982 yuan per gram, down 4 yuan - Jin Zun Gold: 982 yuan per gram, down 4 yuan - Lao Feng Xiang Gold: 980 yuan per gram, down 3 yuan - Chao Hong Ji Gold: 982 yuan per gram, down 4 yuan - Cai Bai Gold: 968 yuan per gram, unchanged - Shanghai China Gold: 943 yuan per gram, unchanged [1][3][4] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have seen a slight increase, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry rising by 2 yuan to 409 yuan per gram [4] Gold Recovery Prices - The gold recovery prices have slightly decreased by 1.9 yuan per gram, with the following recovery prices noted: - Cai Bai Gold: 740.90 yuan per gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng Gold: 738.50 yuan per gram - Zhou Da Fu Gold: 740.60 yuan per gram - Lao Feng Xiang Gold: 746.20 yuan per gram [4] International Gold Market - The spot gold price fluctuated, reaching a high of 3249.02 USD per ounce before closing at 3229.30 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.84% increase [6] - As of the latest update, spot gold is reported at 3214.57 USD per ounce, showing a decline of 0.46% [6] - Economic data from the US indicates a significant drop in the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for April, recorded at -1%, which is the largest decline since March 2023 [6] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and the Russia-Ukraine situation, continue to influence market sentiment [6] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains hawkish, with a high probability of maintaining interest rates in the upcoming months [6]

Market Overview - On Monday, US stock indices opened lower but closed with slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.32%, Nasdaq up 0.02%, and S&P 500 up 0.09% [1] - The pharmaceutical and precious metals sectors saw significant gains, with Novavax rising over 15%, UnitedHealth up over 8%, and Moderna up over 6% [1] - In contrast, the solar, automotive, and oil & gas sectors experienced declines, with First Solar down over 7% and Murphy Oil down over 2% [1] - Most popular Chinese stocks fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.17% [1] Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's announced a downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increased government debt and interest payment ratios [1] - This downgrade marks the first trading day following the announcement, and the US has now lost its highest credit rating from all three major international credit rating agencies [1] - White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett described the downgrade as "lagging" and reaffirmed the safety of US Treasury bonds [1] Federal Reserve's Stance - Several Federal Reserve officials indicated that the economic outlook remains uncertain, suggesting that the Fed may not be ready to lower interest rates before September [2] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson emphasized the need to monitor the impact of policy changes from the Trump administration on inflation [2] - New York Fed President Williams stated that it may take several months to gain clarity on the economic outlook, indicating a cautious approach to policy adjustments [2][3] Economic Uncertainty - Williams noted that while inflation has decreased and the economy is nearing full employment, attention is still required on default rates and consumer spending trends [3] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic echoed similar sentiments, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for 3 to 6 months to better understand economic conditions [3] - The Fed is currently balancing upward inflation pressures with recession risks, leaning towards only one rate cut this year [3]

智通财经5月19日电，美联储威廉姆斯表示，一些前瞻性指标正在发出担忧信号。美联储的利率政策定 位良好，略有限制。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has significant implications for its economic outlook, suggesting a potential rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and indicating that the dollar may have peaked [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The deteriorating fiscal situation in the U.S. reinforces the expectation that long-term U.S. Treasury yields will rise over time [1] - The forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to reach 5.00% within the next 12 months [1] Group 2: Currency and Inflation - The threat to the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries highlights the view that the dollar has likely peaked [1] - The substantial U.S. deficit and inflation may compel the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period [1]

Economic Outlook - Consumer concerns about the economic impact of tariffs are rising, with inflation expectations for the next year reaching the highest level since 1981 [1][4] - The recent drop in consumer confidence index to 50.8 indicates a continuous decline for five months, reflecting consumer sentiment amid economic uncertainty [3][4] - The U.S. retail sales growth in April was only 0.1%, a significant drop from the previous month's 1.7% increase, suggesting cautious consumer behavior due to trade tensions [3][4] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve may maintain stable interest rates in the short term due to rising inflation expectations, with the potential for price increases driven by tariffs [4][5] - Recent inflation data shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.3% and core CPI at 2.8%, indicating a cooling trend in inflation [3][5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to delay any interest rate cuts until September, as indicated by futures markets [5][6] Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 index recovering losses, driven by positive sentiment from trade talks [1][6] - Technology stocks led the market surge with an 8.1% increase, while consumer discretionary and communication services sectors also performed well [6][7] - Despite the rebound, concerns remain about high valuations, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 reaching 22 times [6][7] Credit Rating Impact - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting increased government debt and interest payment ratios, which may raise borrowing costs [7] - The downgrade comes amid heightened uncertainty in financial markets due to tariff policies, raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown [7]

在贸易企稳背景下，美国经济活动或呈现通胀先抬升，经济活动后走弱，这或使美联储2025年维持观 望。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在5月16日的报告中表示，中美贸易紧张局势近期虽有缓和， 但美国通 胀预计将从5月开始明显上升，全年通胀率可能升至3.0-3.5%，这将迫使美联储在2025年保持利率不 变。 美国财政谈判进展表明财政立场将基本保持不变，缺乏大规模刺激措施。 对投资者而言， 这意味着美国经济将进入低增长、高通胀的组合，资产定价需要适应"没有降息"的新现 实。 美联储2025年将按兵不动 商务部官方消息，当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头 人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。本次中美经贸高层会 谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的 反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 大摩分析师表示， 尽管贸易冲突降级大大减少了贸易流量硬停止的风险，进而降低了经济近期衰退的 可能性。然而，13%的有效关税率仍然远高于年初的约2%，政策不确定性 ...