二级速览： 中资美元债二级市场涨跌不一，截至12月26日，Markit iBoxx中资美元债综合指数周度上行0.06%，报251.26；投资级美元债指数周度上涨0.08%， 报244.35；高收益美元债指数周度下跌0.14%，报 241.3。地产美元债指数周度涨0.12%，报178.37；城投美元债指数周度下跌0.01%，报153.9；金融 美元债指数周度下跌0.06%，报290.9。 基准利差： 截至12月26日，中美10年期基准国债利差缩小至229.47bp，较前一周缩小2.13bp。 评级异动： 近两周市场情况 一级市场： 据新华财经统计，近两周（12月15日至12月26日）共发行12笔中资离岸债券，其中包括6笔离岸人民币债券和6笔美元债券，发行规模分别为430.58 亿元人民币和2.96亿美元。近两周发行方式为直接发行的债券共9只，担保发行2只，"直接发行+担保"的1只。 在离岸人民币债券领域，近两周人民币债券单笔发行最大规模为10.5亿元人民币，由南安市发展投资集团有限公司发行。近两周人民币债券发行最 高票息为6.9%，由淄博高新国有资本投资有限公司发行。 在中资美元债券市场，近两周美元债券单笔最大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Bank of China Wealth Management, Huang Danggui, emphasized the importance of promoting cross-border wealth management development to enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) [1] Group 1: Cross-Border Wealth Management - Wealth management companies are encouraged to actively and orderly promote the development of cross-border wealth management [1] - The widespread use of RMB in international payments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to significantly increase global RMB investments, creating a mutually reinforcing relationship [1] Group 2: Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - To facilitate the smooth progress of RMB internationalization, it is suggested to further expand the depth and breadth of offshore markets [1] - Enhancing offshore RMB asset management products can provide convenient capital allocation for "two ends abroad" [1] - It is recommended to appropriately relax cross-border investment quota restrictions, such as increasing the exclusive QDII quota for wealth management companies [1]

央行数字货币试点再扩容：数字人民币如何重塑我们的"钱袋子"？ 一、技术破壁：从"支付工具"到"数字生活中枢" 数字人民币（e-CNY）的技术架构突破了传统货币的物理边界。其核心创新体现在： 1. 双离线支付：在无网络环境下，通过手机NFC或SIM卡硬钱包实现"碰一碰"交易，解决了地下停车场、偏远山 区等场景的支付痛点。 2. 智能合约赋能：在预付卡、供应链金融等场景中，资金流向可编程控制。例如苏州某健身房通过智能合约冻 结预付资金，消费者可按次解锁服务，杜绝商家卷款跑路风险。 3. 跨境支付革命：通过多边央行数字货币桥（mBridge），香港居民可绑定境外银行卡开立数字人民币钱包，实 现大湾区"10秒到账"，跨境汇款成本降低60%。 截至2025年12月，数字人民币累计交易金额突破14.2万亿元，覆盖560万个商户，用户超10亿。这种技术跃迁， 让货币从"账本上的数字"进化为"可编程的生活服务入口"。 二、钱袋子革命：支付、储蓄与财富管理的重构 1. 支付场景的全面渗透 2025年12月25日，中国人民银行宣布数字人民币试点城市新增11个，覆盖天津、重庆、广州、福州等区域，试 点范围扩大至28个省市。这一动作 ...

深度解析：美元霸权正在崩解！百国同步行动去美元，中国搭建人民币朋友圈 如果只看汇率曲线，今年的美元像是一次"剧烈调整"； 但如果把时间轴拉长，把视角抬高，你会发现——这是美元霸权结构性松动的一年。 不是情绪，不是阴谋论，而是一整套支撑美元的底层逻辑，正在同时出现裂缝。 一、美元真正的"护城河"，正在被自己掏空 很多人以为，美元的强大来自经济规模、军事力量，甚至"世界信任"。 但真正让美元成为全球核心货币的，从来只有三点： 第一，美国债务是"安全资产"； 第二，美联储是"可信央行"； 第三，美元体系是"不可替代的结算网络"。 而2025年，三点同时动摇。 美债不再是"避险资产"，而是"高风险资产" 今年一个极具象征意义的变化是： 当全球不确定性上升时，美债反而被抛售。 收益率长期高位，却换不来资金追捧，本质只有一个解释—— 市场开始怀疑： 这笔债，还能不能靠"制度信用"安全兑付？ 美联储的"独立性神话"，正在坍塌 美元长期强势的另一个核心，是全球相信： 美联储不会被政治绑架。 但现实是，美国政府越来越直接地把货币政策当成政策工具： 当市场开始怀疑美联储的决策不再只基于通胀和就业，而是服务于政治目标，美元就从"制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in Hainan, China, particularly the establishment of a "multi-functional free trade account," are reshaping the financial landscape in Asia by enabling direct trade settlements in Renminbi, thereby challenging the dominance of the US dollar system [1][2][3] Financial Developments - Hainan's new financial mechanism allows Southeast Asian countries to conduct trade directly in Renminbi, bypassing the need to convert currencies to US dollars [2] - The cross-border Renminbi settlement volume in Hainan reached an impressive 484.5 billion yuan within the first 11 months before 2025, indicating a significant shift towards a Renminbi-centric trade system [3] Trade and Logistics - The direct shipping route from Indonesia to Hainan has reduced logistics costs by over 30%, significantly benefiting exporters like palm oil and durian traders [6][7] - The trade volume between Hainan and ASEAN countries surged from 23.66 billion yuan in 2020 to 57.91 billion yuan in 2024, more than doubling in just four years [14] Economic Impact - Hainan's policies are attracting foreign businesses, including Japanese firms, to establish operations in the region due to favorable tax rates and the potential for increased market access [9][11] - The zero-tariff items entering Hainan increased from approximately 1,900 to 6,600 after the implementation of new trade agreements, enhancing the region's appeal as a trade hub [16] Industry Growth - Hainan is becoming a significant connector between China and ASEAN, with local industries, including aerospace and food processing, experiencing substantial growth due to favorable policies [19][20][22] - Companies in Hainan are reporting significant cost savings and increased production capabilities, with some businesses claiming that savings from reduced tariffs could fund new ventures [20][22] Strategic Concerns - The success of Hainan's model poses a threat to countries that have historically dominated global trade and industry rules, as it demonstrates a viable alternative to existing systems [23]

的油轮可能涉及非法贸易网络。实际上，这次封锁行动直接打击了委内瑞拉石油经济的命脉，委内瑞拉原油出口一直是其经济的重要支 柱。此前，已有油轮被扣，导致委内瑞拉的石油储存设施迅速饱和，出口受阻。然而，尽管面临封锁压力，委内瑞拉的一些油轮仍在主 要产油区装载石油或准备出港，这表明委内瑞拉能源部门正尽力绕过封锁，保持石油生产。 | 排名 (按金额) | 国家名称 | 41 = (万吨) | 药量 (万桶) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = | 俄罗斯 | 10847. 13 | 80295.02 | | N | 沙特阿拉伯 | 7863. 88 | 56808 25 | | 3 | 马来西亚 | 7032.67 | 50746. 19 | | 4 | 伊拉克 | 6383. 67 | 45274. 42 | | 5 | 阿曾 | 4077. 21 | 30105. 29 | | 6 | 阿联酋 | 3553. 53 | 26348. 65 | | 7 | 严 | 3684. 34 | 26150. 98 | | 8 | 安哥拉 | 2872. 15 | 20536. 56 | | 9 | ...

12月25日上午，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破"7"这一整数关口，为2024年9月以来首次。有关人民币升值和人民币国际化的讨论也再次成为热点。 有了这样一家银行，它还能给那些被西方列入黑名单的国家贷款，例如俄罗斯、伊朗等。当然，朝鲜目前不是上合组织成员国——但如果朝鲜未来加入上合 组织，也可以享受同样的待遇。其他成员国也一样，无论是印度、巴基斯坦，只要是成员国，银行都能放贷。 李波：所以，这家银行实际上是通过发行成员国的本币债来扩大资金来源，对吧？ 巴蒂斯塔：没错，初期当然以人民币为主，随后也可以逐步扩展到其他重要的本币市场。我给中国的建议是，不必等到所有上合成员国都达成共识。如果由 中国牵头，一群团结的核心国家先推进组建这家银行，就放手去做。其他国家如果感兴趣，之后也能加入。 随着美国经济的波动和美元霸权地位面临的挑战，越来越多的国家开始寻求减少对美元的依赖。这一趋势为人民币国际化提供了新的机遇，但同时也伴随着 复杂的风险和挑战。 今年9月在天津举行的上海合作组织成员国元首理事会第二十五次会议上，各成员国重申了成立上合组织开发银行的重要性。评论广泛认为，此举旨在规避 以美元为主导的贸易日益增加的风险，有助于减少 ...

Group 1 - China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $11.8 billion in October 2025, bringing its total to $688.7 billion, the lowest level since 2008, marking a strategic withdrawal that has seen nearly half of its holdings cut since the peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013 [1] - The total US national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, which is more than military spending, indicating a potential "Ponzi scheme" characteristic of what was once considered a safe asset [1] - The Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of the year in December 2025, lowering the target range to 3.5-3.75%, a move seen as a desperate measure to manage debt rather than a standard economic stimulus [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve for larger and faster rate cuts, with each 1% cut potentially saving the government nearly $400 billion in interest payments, highlighting the political challenges to the Fed's independence [3][5] - The market's confidence in US Treasuries is waning, evidenced by a failed 20-year bond auction in May 2025, where yields surged to 5.047%, reflecting extreme distrust in long-term US debt [5] - Global capital is reassessing the risks associated with US Treasuries, with Canada reducing its holdings by $56.7 billion in October 2025, the largest monthly decline of the year [5] Group 3 - China is strategically reducing its US Treasury holdings while increasing its gold reserves, which reached 2,292 tons by March 2025, with a significant monthly import of 127.5 tons in April, up 73% year-on-year [7] - The internationalization of the Renminbi is progressing, with the CIPS system connecting 1,729 institutions across 189 countries, and Renminbi settlements in Southeast Asia coal trade exceeding 30% [7] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 agreement supports local currency transactions, allowing Chinese exports to Southeast Asia without needing to convert to US dollars, gradually eroding the dollar's dominance in the region [7] Group 4 - The US-China trade consensus reached at the end of 2025 reflects a pragmatic choice under pressure, as various stakeholders in the US oppose tax increases, emphasizing the importance of maintaining low-cost imports to control inflation [8] - China's export controls on critical metals and rare earths are impacting the US high-end military supply chain, with significant delays in production for companies like Lockheed Martin [10] - The Federal Reserve's plan to restart a $40 billion monthly bond purchase program is seen as a self-financing scheme, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debt without foreign buyers [10] Group 5 - China's trade surplus reached $1.08 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a growing demand for Renminbi to purchase Chinese goods, with its share in cross-border trade settlements rising to 5.8% [10] - The digital Renminbi is making strides in cross-border applications, particularly along the Belt and Road Initiative, which could enhance settlement efficiency and reduce reliance on the SWIFT system [12] - The US consumer confidence index has dropped to 52.9, a 30% decline year-on-year, with a significant portion of the population reporting worsened financial conditions due to high prices, painting a contrasting picture of the US economy [12] Group 6 - China is adopting a gradual approach to reducing its US Treasury holdings, opting for a strategy of "not renewing" maturing bonds at a pace of $50-80 billion annually, signaling caution without causing market volatility [13] - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, contrasting with the decline in US Treasury holdings, indicating a shift from "scale expansion" to "structural optimization" in reserve management [13] - In the context of Fed rate cuts and global sell-offs of US debt, China benefits from a complete industrial chain, diversified reserves, and a large domestic market, providing greater strategic flexibility [13]

让人瞠目结舌的是白银的表现。现货白银价格飙升至每盎司72美元以上，年内涨幅高达137%，几乎是黄金涨幅的两倍。这意味着如果你在年初投资10万美 元白银，现在账户里已经有23.7万美元了。 美联储降息了，金价却不跌反涨。特朗普政府一边施压美联储大幅降息，一边在委内瑞拉附近海域扣押油轮，地缘政治紧张局势让避险情绪高涨。这些因素 共同创造了一场完美风暴，将贵金属价格推向了前所未有的高度。 全球央行正在以前所未有的速度囤积黄金。2025年全球央行的黄金净购买量已连续第三年突破千吨大关。这不是普通的投资行为，而是一场悄无声息的资产 大转移。 4500美元！当这个曾经遥不可及的数字出现在黄金交易屏幕上时，整个华尔街都倒吸了一口凉气。就在2025年12月24日，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中如同脱缰野 马，一举突破每盎司4500美元关口，最高触及4525.83美元，创下历史新纪录。今年以来，金价已疯狂上涨超过70%，相当于每盎司上涨了约1880美元。 黄金不产生利息，但它是全球公认的"终极支付手段"。在美元资产风险加大、国际结算体系多元化的背景下，黄金不依附于任何主权信用的特性，使其成为 对冲美元体系风险的战略资产。 中国央行已经连 ...

12月26日，第十四届全国政协委员、中国宏观经济学会副会长刘尚希在《证券日报》社有限责任公司举 办的"2025证券市场年会"上表示，建设金融强国，要以强大的货币为前提。人民币国际化，是提升金融 国际竞争力的前置条件，也是增强我国在全球配置资源、管理财富、分配价值能力的基础。 "人民币国际化是以财政为基础条件的。"刘尚希表示，现代政府财政既能创造货币，也能创造金融资 产，像赤字融资、土地金融、发行政府债券、资产证券化和政府投资基金，其实都是在不断创造货币， 创造货币其实也就是创造信用，同时也是在创造资产。这对整个证券市场，或者更大范围的资本市场而 言，是基础性的。 刘尚希认为，财政收支过程即货币流通过程。首先，财政收支直接嵌入基础货币投放和回收过程。其 次，财政成为另一个隐形的"货币水龙头"，在收支平衡条件下则被"关掉"。最后，财政收支具有调节货 币流通的功能，也使货币由中性转变为非中性。 其中，他谈到，当财政支出大于财政收入的时候，财政的货币扩张效应就显现出来了。当前实施更加积 极的财政政策，就是要保持适当的赤字规模、债务规模以及支出扩张的强度，也就是要发挥财政的货币 扩张效应，就是要把财政这个隐形的"货币水 ...