Group 1 - The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies and expectations of economic slowdown have heightened market panic and increased volatility in international financial markets since 2025 [1] - The share of non-U.S. currencies like the Renminbi and Euro in sovereign reserves is rising, and their use in trade settlements is becoming more widespread [1] - Experts at the Summer Davos Forum indicated that the world is undergoing a "de-dollarization" process, but it is still far from challenging the dollar's dominance [1] Group 2 - U.S. economic growth may remain low for an extended period, with persistent productivity deficits and high inflation expected in the coming years [2] - Current tariff and immigration policies may have long-term impacts, such as increased trade costs and reduced willingness for consumption, investment, and mergers [2] - The absolute dominance of the dollar has weakened, but it still maintains a leading position; challenges from non-dollar sovereign currencies are premature [2] Group 3 - Stablecoins are gaining significant attention in the global financial community, with the U.S. potentially using stablecoin development to reinforce the dollar's international status [2] - The majority of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, which enhances the dollar's dominance in the stablecoin market [2] - To further promote the internationalization of the Renminbi, China may also consider developing a Renminbi stablecoin and needs to strengthen its bond market to enrich Renminbi assets [2]

"这能够增加人民币的含金量，推动人民币国际化。"杨德龙认为，央行增持黄金也是为了应对美元信用弱 化，以及地缘政治冲突的风险。 一段时间以来，国际金价持续波动，呈现震荡调整的格局。 当地时间24日，以伊达成停火协议提振全球市场乐观情绪，美国三大股指全线收涨，国际油价大跌，国际 金价显著下跌。 据多家媒体报道，6月25日，国内品牌首饰金价再度迎来重大变化，多个品牌足金饰品价格重回每克千元 左右，有的品牌金价格甚至跌破千元。 6月25日下午，话题#金价跌至6月以来新低# 一度登上微博热搜第一位。 "这两年黄金价格大幅上涨，原因除了全球央行购金的推动以外，还有投资者对于保值资产的需求。"前海 开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙在接受风口财经记者采访时表示，中国央行连续7个月增持黄金，截至5月末 黄金储备达到约2296吨，占外汇储备比例为7%，而全球平均是15%的水平，说明央行配置黄金比例还是低 于全球水平，预计后续还会继续增持黄金。 中国人民银行6月7日公布的数据显示，5月末黄金储备为7383万盎司，较4月末的7377万盎司增加6万盎 司，这是中国人民银行连续7个月增持黄金。此前，央行曾连续18个月增持黄金，但从去年5月后一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities outlines three potential approaches for the issuance of stablecoins in China, emphasizing the importance of public chains, digital wallets, and licensing acquisition [1] Group 1: Issuance Approaches - The first approach is central issuance, where the central authority directly issues stablecoins on-chain, allowing enterprises to build a stablecoin ecosystem around this central node [1] - The second approach involves a licensing system, where companies must obtain a license to issue stablecoins, requiring them to hold a corresponding amount of fiat assets in reserve [1] - The third approach combines central wholesale with enterprise retail, where the central bank manages the public chain and wholesale issuance, while banks and tech companies are authorized to issue stablecoins [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The manufacturing sector could drive the internationalization of the RMB through stablecoins, leveraging China's strong manufacturing background to enhance the influence of public chains via cross-border trade [1] - Companies in the public chain, digital wallet, and licensing acquisition sectors are recommended for attention as potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Insights - The launch of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" marks a significant advancement in cross-border payment systems, enabling real-time transactions between mainland China and Hong Kong in both Renminbi and Hong Kong Dollar [1][2] - The system leverages blockchain technology to reduce transaction times from 1-5 working days to seconds and cut fees by 80%, enhancing the efficiency of cross-border payments [2] - The regulatory framework for stablecoins is evolving, with Hong Kong's new regulations set to take effect, requiring stablecoin issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve and undergo quarterly audits [4][6] Group 1: Cross-Border Payment Link - The "Cross-Border Payment Link" officially launched on June 22, 2025, connecting the mainland's interbank payment system with Hong Kong's Fast Payment System [1] - Initial use cases include tuition payments, medical fees, and salary disbursements, with transaction limits increased from 10,000 to 100,000 [2] - This infrastructure supports the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhances financial integration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2] Group 2: Stablecoin Development - The introduction of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" presents a historic opportunity for stablecoins, allowing settlement times to be reduced to minutes [4] - Hong Kong's new stablecoin regulations will require issuers to hold at least 80% of their reserves in cash and government bonds, limiting high-risk assets [6] - Major companies like JD.com and Ant Group have applied for licenses, indicating a trend towards compliant stablecoins being integrated into the "Cross-Border Payment Link" [4] Group 3: Market Response and Growth - The global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $1.8 trillion, reflecting a 120% increase from 2024, driven by regulatory compliance [6] - USDC's market share has risen to 42%, positioning it as a preferred stablecoin for cross-border payments [6] - Companies such as Standard Chartered and Zhenrong Bank are actively participating in stablecoin sandbox tests, exploring asset custody models [4][6] Group 4: Related Companies - Sifang Jingchuang is the only A-share company involved in the central bank's mBridge project, with a projected 300% increase in orders by 2025 [8] - Changliang Technology has deep ties with the Vietnamese central bank, with overseas revenue exceeding 25% and recent wins in cross-border payment projects [9] - New Morning Technology reported a 200% year-on-year increase in cross-border payment revenue in Q1 2025, providing stablecoin custody solutions for Standard Chartered [10] - JD Group's subsidiary is in the second phase of Hong Kong's stablecoin sandbox testing, aiming to launch a Hong Kong Dollar/US Dollar stablecoin within the year [11]

破解"重流量、轻存量"难题，需从认知、制度、政策和考核等维度进行系统性改革，构建"流量带动存 量、存量反哺流量"的良性循环机制。 在人民币国际化进程中，跨境人民币流量与存量的结构性失衡问题已成为关键制约因素。截至2024年 底，我国跨境人民币结算规模（流量）达96万亿元，而境外人民币存款仅3.5万亿元、债券存量不足1.2 万亿元，流量与存量之比高达27︰1，显著高于美元5︰1的国际水平。这种"重流量、轻存量"的发展模 式，暴露出人民币国际化战略执行中的深层问题。 流量与存量的结构性失衡：人民币国际化的核心问题 从实践来看，流量指标（如跨境结算规模）因可通过政策引导短期提升，成为政绩考核的"显绩"；而存 量指标（如境外人民币资产持有规模）需依赖市场自发的长期资产配置需求，见效周期长、考核难度 大，导致地方政府与金融机构普遍存在"重结算规模、轻资产沉淀"的倾向。 这种失衡不仅制约人民币从"贸易结算工具"向"价值储藏手段"的功能升级，更潜藏三大系统性风险：一 是货币职能残缺风险。单纯依赖流量扩张使人民币长期停留在"贸易结算工具"层面，境外主体因缺乏多 元化资产配置渠道，往往在收到人民币后迅速兑换为其他货币，导致人民 ...

Group 1 - The market is showing positive performance, with signs of declining investment enthusiasm, a slowdown in capacity expansion, and a recovery in profits across multiple industries, which is beneficial for enterprises [1] - The current economic environment may lead to a prolonged period of clearing, which primarily benefits downstream companies, while many midstream and upstream companies that rely on investment support may not benefit [2] - The persistent issue of price deflation remains a significant concern, with the loss of "animal spirits" being a critical problem that needs addressing [2] Group 2 - Financial stimulation is seen as a key method to revive "animal spirits," with the potential for financial innovation to accelerate processes and enhance price imagination [3][5] - The traditional financial sector is showing excitement over new financial models, indicating a shift in perception and potential opportunities for growth [6][7] - The approval of virtual asset trading services by Guotai Junan International signifies a transition from marginalization to mainstream acceptance, which could lead to significant growth in the financial sector [7] Group 3 - The article outlines a tiered approach to emerging technologies, with the first tier including robotaxi, stablecoins, and RWA, which are expected to see practical implementation soon [8] - AI hardware and applications are categorized in the second tier, while solid-state batteries and perovskite technology are in the third tier, indicating they are still in early development stages [8] - The fourth tier includes XRAI glasses, which have high expectations but may fall short depending on the maturity of battery technology from the third tier [8]

Core Insights - The seminar focused on the development trends and policy evolution of global stablecoins, highlighting their operational models, impacts, and regulatory frameworks [1][2]. Group 1: Stablecoin Operational Models and Market Trends - Understanding stablecoins requires examining their technological foundations and operational models, which differentiate them from cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins combine the technological advantages of crypto assets with the value stability of fiat currencies, addressing incentive mechanisms for market participants [1][3]. - Stablecoins have entered a new phase of scaled and compliant development, becoming popular payment tools that integrate with traditional financial systems. The average transaction size of stablecoins has decreased, indicating a shift from investment settlements to cross-border trade and real-world transactions [1][6][7]. - As of June 20, 2025, the global market capitalization of stablecoins reached $261.5 billion, with USD stablecoins accounting for $253.3 billion. Projections suggest that by 2030, stablecoin market capitalization could reach between $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion, depending on regulatory clarity [6][7]. Group 2: Impact on International Payment and Currency Systems - The development of stablecoins, particularly USD stablecoins, is creating a new cycle of dollar circulation, reinforcing the dollar's dominance in the international monetary system. Over 95% of stablecoins are fiat-backed, with USD stablecoins making up 99% of that segment [2][11][13]. - The majority of stablecoin reserves are invested in U.S. Treasury securities, with Tether's USDT holding approximately $1.2 trillion in U.S. debt as of March 2025. This trend is expected to continue, potentially leading to stablecoin issuers holding over $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries by 2030 [12][13]. Group 3: Regulatory Challenges and Frameworks - The governance challenges and potential risks associated with stablecoins are becoming increasingly apparent. The U.S. is leading a global shift towards supportive regulatory frameworks for compliant innovation in stablecoins [2][19]. - A "five-pillar framework" for stablecoin regulation has emerged, focusing on the functional positioning of stablecoins, issuer access, operational oversight, reserve fund management, and anti-money laundering measures [20][21]. - Future regulatory considerations include the applicability of existing frameworks to decentralized operations, the need for innovative regulatory approaches leveraging new technologies, and addressing the global nature of cryptocurrency against national governance [25].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the cross-border payment system marks a significant innovation in China's financial payment sector, enabling real-time cross-border remittance services between mainland China and Hong Kong, thus enhancing the financial lives of residents in both regions [1] Group 1: Efficiency and User Experience - The cross-border payment system significantly improves the efficiency of cross-border payment services, allowing funds to be transferred in seconds compared to the traditional 1 to 3 working days [2] - It supports various channels such as mobile banking and online banking, enhancing the convenience and comfort of transactions for residents [2] Group 2: Cost Reduction - The system effectively reduces transaction costs associated with cross-border payments by streamlining the clearing process and minimizing intermediary involvement [3] - During the pilot phase, several participating banks offered fee waivers, indicating a potential for lower overall costs even if fees are reinstated in the future [3] Group 3: Promotion of Renminbi Internationalization - The cross-border payment system supports real-time exchange and clearing of Renminbi and Hong Kong dollars, contributing to the internationalization of the Renminbi [3] - It is expected to facilitate the expansion of Renminbi usage in cross-border trade and potentially connect with more countries in the future [3] Group 4: Strengthening Hong Kong's Financial Hub Status - The system enhances the safety, efficiency, and convenience of payment services for economic activities and personnel exchanges between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, promoting economic integration [4] - It supports high-frequency payment scenarios such as salary disbursement and tuition fees, fostering talent exchange and cooperation in education and healthcare [4] - By reducing cross-border payment barriers, the system is poised to bolster Hong Kong's position as an offshore Renminbi hub and strengthen its status as an international financial center [4]

"新"向未来——平安基金2025年中期投资策略会于6月25日-26日举行，多位行业专家对当前经济形势、 热门行业发展前景、资产配置等话题展开探讨。中泰金融国际有限公司首席经济学家李迅雷在本次会议 上作题为《外部环境不利影响加大下，中国经济走势与政策选择》的主旨演讲，深刻剖析了在特朗普 2.0时代"反秩序性"冲击下，中国经济面临的内外挑战与破局路径。李迅雷指出，随着全球步入高震 荡、低增长的新常态，中国亟需通过政策创新激活内循环潜力，并在资产配置中把握历史性机遇。 外部系统性冲击正在形成 在震荡中布局确定性 全球经济正步入高震荡、低增长时代，这一趋势对中国经济产生了深远影响。李迅雷指出，全球收入与 财富分化加剧，主要经济体前1%和10%的居民财富占比持续攀升，这种分化导致社会矛盾加剧，经济 政策的不确定性上升。 在外部环境变差的背景下，中国经济内循环面临诸多挑战。李迅雷指出，美国对华关税政策的不确定 性，可能导致中国出口下滑，进而影响经济增长、就业和企业盈利。此外，出口下降可能加剧产能过剩 问题，进一步抑制制造业投资，而消费市场的疲软也难以在短期内有效弥补外需的不足。 在当前局势下，资产如何配置成为市场关注的焦 ...

6月18日至20日，2025中国国际金融展在上海举办。在CIPS跨境银企合作专场活动上，新加坡大 华银行有限公司（以下简称"大华银行"）及其在华全资子公司大华银行中国有限公司（大华银行 中国）正式签约成为人民币跨境支付系统（Cross-border Interbank Payment System, 简称CIPS） 直接参与者。 大 华 银 行 集 团 交 易 银 行 部 主 管 苏 丽 华 女 士 ( 左 二 ) 出 席 2 0 2 5 中 国 国 际 金 融 展 C I P S 跨 境 银 企 合 作 专 场 活 动 的 签 约 仪 式 ， 并代表机 构 签 约 作为 CIPS 直接参与者，大华银行将依托该系统为境内外企业、金融机构提供"一站式"跨境 人民币清算、结算和支付服务，使企业享受到实时清算、全额到账等便利，有效降低支付清 算 成 本 。 大 华 银 行 中 国 行 长 兼 首 席 执 行 官 符 懋 赞 表 示 ： " 大 华 银 行 和 大 华 银 行 中 国 同 步 加 入 CIPS直参业务，体现了我们深耕中国—东盟市场和助力区域金融互联互通的坚定承诺。" 随着中国金融市场双向开放的不断深化 ...