Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - The current trend in gold is characterized as a "super sweep" market, with expectations that this volatility will continue for an extended period, similar to the market behavior observed after the 2011 peak [1][3] - The trading strategy recommended involves either small stop-losses to improve the risk-reward ratio or larger stop-losses to increase the success rate, with specific dollar amounts suggested for each approach [3] Group 2 - Recent trading activity in gold showed a daily high of 3349 and a low of around 3301, indicating significant volatility within the trading day [4] - Key support and resistance levels for the upcoming trading day are identified, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3350 and 3365 [6] - Silver has experienced a notable increase, reaching its highest level since March 2012, but there are indications of potential weakness in the bullish momentum [6][8]

Group 1 - Current US-China trade relations show significant signs of easing, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold, which is currently undergoing a phase of adjustment, although gold's safe-haven attributes will limit its downside potential [1] - Recent data indicates that the negative impact of tariff policies on the US economy is becoming evident, with the manufacturing PMI index remaining weak and the services PMI index experiencing its first contraction in a year [1][2] - The US manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 48.5, the lowest since November of the previous year, with new orders index at 47.6, highlighting the impact of tariff increases on demand [1] Group 2 - The ISM services PMI for May fell to 49.9, significantly below expectations, with the new orders index dropping to 46.4, marking the largest decline since June 2024 [2] - The US added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, reflecting tightening labor supply rather than strong demand [3] Group 3 - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to nearly $3.3 trillion in May, with gold reserves increasing slightly to 73.83 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [4] - Since November 2022, China's central bank has cumulatively added 10.16 million ounces of gold, although the pace of accumulation has slowed in recent months [4] - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, saw a slight year-on-year increase of 1% in Q1 2025, with central banks remaining significant buyers despite a slight slowdown [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States have not reached a consensus, despite Japan's efforts to enhance its negotiating position. The prospects for an agreement during the upcoming G7 summit appear uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Status - Japan's trade representative has visited the U.S. for three consecutive weeks, yet no substantial progress has been made in the fifth round of ministerial talks [1]. - Japan's government has been adjusting its negotiation strategy, aiming for the complete removal of tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, but the U.S. seems unwilling to accept these demands [3]. - The Japanese government had hoped to finalize an agreement during the G7 summit in mid-June, but significant differences remain between the two parties [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff measures have severely impacted Japan's automobile and steel industries, contributing to economic pressures as domestic rice prices remain unstable [2]. - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, with expectations of further economic decline in the second quarter due to the tariff policies [5]. - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections may hinge on the government's ability to achieve favorable results in the U.S. tariff negotiations, influencing the political landscape [2][5]. Group 3: Strategic Proposals - Japan is proposing to enhance economic security cooperation with the U.S. in sectors such as liquefied natural gas, semiconductors, and shipbuilding, aiming to alleviate U.S. pressures in these areas [3]. - Specific proposals include participation in U.S. LNG development projects and significant purchases of U.S. semiconductor products, along with a joint shipbuilding initiative [3]. Group 4: Broader Context - There are concerns within Japan's economic circles that the country is no longer a priority for the U.S., especially in light of the recent U.S.-China trade dynamics [4]. - The Japanese government’s strategy of leveraging economic security has not garnered the expected attention from the U.S., leaving negotiations in a stalemate [5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略专题】 百年贸易战的比较研究 ——康波周期系列 2 ❖ 康波周期所标志的世界经济长波更迭，伴随大国兴衰的时代背景，1930 年代 的美国作为"世界工厂"的顺差追逐国，遭遇英国作为逆差主导国挑起的关税 争端。历史周期率下没有新鲜事，以长周期研究锚定短周期位置，有助于我们 理解当下，推测未来。 ❖ 货币体系重构：美元走弱&黄金升值或是中长期趋势。 旧货币的式微：1930 年代英镑的没落背后是英国经济实力下降+黄金储备枯竭 +债务违约引发信用崩溃；类似当前美元的挑战是美国经贸相对优势缩小+债 务与通胀两难+他国寻求替代货币。 新货币的崛起：1930 年代美元从债务结算/外汇储备多领域挑战英镑，背后是 美国经济崛起+黄金储备充足+债权国输出美元；当前美元仍占全球外汇储备 半数以上，尚未出现类似 1930 年代的新兴挑战者。 黄金升值或仍未结束：1930 年代金本位溃败下主要法币计价的黄金升值 1-2 倍，当前货币体系变革，新兴法币挑战者缺失，黄金是过渡期有效价值替代品， 对抗法币信用下降。 ❖ 关税经济冲击：量的冲击远大于 1930 年代，对价格影响可能有限。 实际 GDP：1930 年 ...

证券研究报告 二手船价先于新船价企稳，301对中国造船业冲击逐步修复 ——2025年5月造船订单总结 证券分析师：闫海 A0230519010004 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 2025.6.10 ◼ 301具体落地政策较草案强度大幅减弱，造船利空压力释放：豁免条件显示在美订造船舶可取得豁免，美国民船建造能力差，产业链搭 建难且劳工招募成本高，同时豁免条件增加订单流向日韩压力减弱，叠加日韩船厂产能饱和，一阶段订单流向日韩带动船价提升，二阶 段高价单重新回流中国，当前老船替换主逻辑下，收费设置上限相当于增设附加费，可被造船业供需紧张带动的船价上行覆盖。301落地 后新签订单及船价有望修复。年初以来，受制于301扰动，船东观望情绪强，造船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌，预期落地后，积压造 船需求有望释放，重新带动订单量及船价上行。 ◼ 关税谈判后看好造船进入预期修复阶段，新签订单及船价有望修复：需求端：中美贸易缓和带动航运市场贸易修复，运价上涨后船公司 资产负债表修复，老船替换主逻辑船公司下单意愿增强。供给端：船厂产能依旧紧缺。年初以来，受制于301扰动，船东观望情绪强，造 船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略专题】 百年贸易战的比较研究 ——康波周期系列 2 ❖ 康波周期所标志的世界经济长波更迭，伴随大国兴衰的时代背景，1930 年代 的美国作为"世界工厂"的顺差追逐国，遭遇英国作为逆差主导国挑起的关税 争端。历史周期率下没有新鲜事，以长周期研究锚定短周期位置，有助于我们 理解当下，推测未来。 ❖ 货币体系重构：美元走弱&黄金升值或是中长期趋势。 旧货币的式微：1930 年代英镑的没落背后是英国经济实力下降+黄金储备枯竭 +债务违约引发信用崩溃；类似当前美元的挑战是美国经贸相对优势缩小+债 务与通胀两难+他国寻求替代货币。 新货币的崛起：1930 年代美元从债务结算/外汇储备多领域挑战英镑，背后是 美国经济崛起+黄金储备充足+债权国输出美元；当前美元仍占全球外汇储备 半数以上，尚未出现类似 1930 年代的新兴挑战者。 黄金升值或仍未结束：1930 年代金本位溃败下主要法币计价的黄金升值 1-2 倍，当前货币体系变革，新兴法币挑战者缺失，黄金是过渡期有效价值替代品， 对抗法币信用下降。 ❖ 关税经济冲击：量的冲击远大于 1930 年代，对价格影响可能有限。 实际 GDP：1930 年 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly better than the market expectation of 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, consistent with market expectations and previous values [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 3.8% and the expected 3.7%, indicating a resilient job market [2] Group 2 - Global geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with reduced likelihood of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as both sides show willingness to negotiate [3] - In the Middle East, there are positive signals regarding a potential permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and a revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal [3] - The market has developed a degree of immunity to geopolitical conflicts, which has diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - Tariff issues remain a key factor influencing gold price movements, with significant progress made in U.S.-China tariff negotiations [4] - The initiation of a second round of talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicates that the most severe phase of the trade war may be over [4] - The impact of tariff factors on the gold market is gradually weakening, suggesting a potential "tail-end" market phase for gold [4] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate due to rising domestic debt and the loss of dollar credibility from tariff policies, establishing a solid foundation for a long-term bull market in gold [5] - In the short term, while geopolitical tensions are entering a negotiation phase, there is a lack of upward momentum for gold prices, and investors should be cautious of potential price corrections [5] - Technically, gold prices are expected to maintain a range adjustment between $3,200 and $3,400 in June, with a prevailing bullish trend [5]

金十数据6月10日讯，随着日本参议院选举越来越近，日本首相石破茂承诺将提高国民薪资水平，并使 经济总量达到6.9万亿美元。"我已经指示党内高级官员制定我们的最高竞选承诺，目标是到2040年名义 GDP达到1千万亿日元，并将平均工资在目前水平的基础上提高50%或更多，"石破茂在东京对记者说。 这一承诺发表之际，日本选民即将对石破茂的首相职务表现作出"裁决"，他领导的少数派政府正与特朗 普政府就降低关税进行谈判，并与国内不断飙升的通胀作斗争。去年10月，他的政党在大选中惨败。 日本首相开选举支票：承诺到2040年薪资增长50% ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，美豆产区天气整体良好和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性买盘支撑，但6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹空间， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2840（华东），基差-179，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存38.25万吨，上周29.8万吨，环比增加28.36%，去年同期85.61万吨， 同比减少65.19%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向 ...

日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正在自民党总部回答记者提问（6月9日） 日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正将在6月13日再次访美，就日美关税谈判举行第6轮部长级磋商，6月15日 至17日将在加拿大举行七国集团峰会（G7峰会），正在探索借此机会在日美首脑之间达成一定的共 识…… 日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正将在6月13日再次访美，就日美关税谈判举行第6轮部长级磋 商，正在进行协调。访美的日程是6月13日至18日，是赤泽亮正连续第4周访美。6月15日至 17日将在加拿大举行七国集团峰会（G7峰会），正在探索借此机会在日美首脑之间达成一定 的共识。 赤泽亮正6月8日结束第五次访美后返回日本。在向石破茂报告后对记者表示，"或许不会出现 首相与美国总统特朗普对话，得出应有的协议结论的情况"。 第五次访美期间，赤泽亮正与美国财政部长贝森特进行了磋商，并两次会见美国商务部长卢 特尼克。 赤泽亮正6月9日在自民党总部对记者表示，考虑到在G7峰会上日美首脑有举行会谈的机 会，"在尽可能扩大共识的基础上，即使无法达成一致，也要考虑让两国首脑能谈些什么"。 在被问及自己是否会一同参加G7峰会时，赤泽亮正表示"如果日美首脑之间讨论关税问题，有 可能同 ...