Group 1 - Invesco highlights that the investment environment in Asia is currently very favorable, with emerging markets benefiting from a weaker dollar, leading to significant foreign investment in Asian bonds, totaling $34 billion, the highest since 2016 [1] - The Eurozone economy showed a growth of 0.6% in Q1 2025, but may face stagnation risks in Q2 2025 due to weak external demand [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy rate but may signal a stronger inclination towards rate cuts in upcoming meetings [2][3] Group 2 - Since 2024, the share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined, with gold gaining 7.9 percentage points to reach 23.3% [2] - The U.S. budget office projects that the comprehensive tax and spending bill will boost GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually over the next decade, while also increasing the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion [2] - Inflation in the UK has only slightly eased, with core prices declining marginally, while geopolitical tensions are putting additional pressure on the Bank of England to meet its 2% inflation target [2]

印尼央行6月18日宣布将关键利率维持在5.5%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts ease [2][4]. - Silver: Retreats from high levels [2][4]. - Copper: Strong spot market for LME copper supports prices [2][11]. - Aluminum: Oscillates with a bullish bias [2][14]. - Alumina: Rebounds significantly [2][14]. - Zinc: Under pressure [2][17]. - Lead: Adjusts within a short - term range [2][19]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations [2][22]. - Nickel: Concerns at the mine end ease, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with weak supply - demand and low - level oscillations [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2508, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2508 were 785.08, 782.94, and 3406.50 respectively, with daily changes of - 0.91%, - 0.63%, and 0.06%. The previous closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2508 and Comex Silver 2508 were 8864 and 37.180, with daily changes of 0.07% and 2.23% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump claimed full control of Iranian airspace; Israeli military said it destroyed Iranian uranium - enrichment facilities; US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US Senate passed a stablecoin bill; Bank of Japan maintained interest rates [5][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is 0 [9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,380, down 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 78560, up 0.23%. The previous closing price of LME Copper 3M was 9,670, down 0.26% [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's remarks on Iran; Chile's state - owned copper company's production increased by 20.5% year - on - year in April; Kakula Mine restarted operations; Peru's Condor - Teck copper project got environmental approval; Ivanhoe Mines revised its production target for Kamoa - Kakula [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20460, and the night - session closing price was 20585. The previous closing price of LME Aluminum 3M was 2545. The previous closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2860, and the night - session closing price was 2896 [14]. - **Comprehensive News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, and alumina trend intensity is 0 [16]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 21905, up 0.30%, and the previous closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2660, up 1.28% [17]. - **News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US industrial output declined for the second time in three months [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [17]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16860, down 0.71%, and the previous closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2006.5, up 0.70% [19]. - **News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US industrial output declined for the second time in three months [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [20]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 263,730, down 0.29%, and the previous closing price of LME Tin 3M was 32,250, down 0.92% [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's remarks on Iran; Israeli military's actions; US economic data; US tariff disputes; US stablecoin bill; Bank of Japan's monetary policy [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 118,570, and the previous closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,480 [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance; the Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban [27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [30].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and plans to slow down the pace of bond purchase reductions starting next fiscal year, indicating a cautious approach amid increasing market volatility [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Decision** - The Bank of Japan has decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% [1] - **Bond Purchase Strategy** - The central bank plans to reduce its monthly bond purchases from the current pace of 4000 billion yen (approximately 268 billion USD) to 2000 billion yen (approximately 134 billion USD) per quarter starting next fiscal year [1] - This decision aligns with market expectations, as all 53 surveyed economists anticipated the interest rate to remain unchanged, with two-thirds expecting a slowdown in the pace of bond purchase reductions [1]

日本央行以9-0的投票比例维持利率不变。 日本央行维持利率在0.5%不变，符合预期。 ...

实际上，货币汇率才是解决问题的关键所在。 相信时至今日，整个市场都已经相信。 前言 依稀记得去年12月5日的文中，我们提到CBA发布的预测报告表明，该行对澳元未来走势的预期急剧转 向悲观。 预测指出，澳元可能在2025年跌至60美分，甚至更低水平。在此之前，CBA曾乐观预测澳元能在2026 年底前回升至70美分，但目前该行认为这一反弹前景可能难以实现。 CBA国际经济主管Joseph Capurso指出："若全球贸易战的规模超出预期，并带来更具破坏性的影响，澳 元的下跌趋势可能会进一步加剧，并更快到来。" 但是笔者提出逆市场共识的，即随着特朗普的上任，美元指数或将下一个台阶运行。特朗普的核心需求 的实现必然需要伴随弱美元。 美国的关税也并未核心议题，谈判的核心议题究竟为何？ RBA最新货币政策及其影响 从澳洲内部来看，澳大利亚经济增速放缓。 2025年第一季度GDP环比仅增长0.2%，同比增速约1.3%。季报指出公共部门支出回落和极端天气冲击 对增幅产生压制作用。 通胀方面，澳洲当前处于温和通胀环境： 3月季度CPI同比2.4%，核心通胀（修正均值）2.9%，整体处于央行2-3%目标区间下端。劳动力市场依 然 ...

日本央行据悉下周可能维持 利率不变。 ...

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.6% year-on-year in May, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 3%, slightly below the expected 3.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 248,000, the highest level since October of the previous year, indicating increasing difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, both below market expectations, with core CPI at its lowest level since March 2021 [1] Group 2 - Trump argues that a 2% rate cut could save the U.S. $600 billion annually, emphasizing the potential financial benefits of lowering interest rates [2] - Several high-ranking officials from the White House have echoed Trump's sentiments, suggesting that a rate cut could lead to significant government savings [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, faces political pressure to lower interest rates, although Powell emphasizes the independence of the Fed and the need to focus on economic outlook rather than political motivations [3] - Analysts note that while tariff impacts are currently minimal, risks of rising unemployment and inflation are increasing, with predictions of significant price increases in the coming months [3] - Former Treasury Secretary Yellen warns that Trump's tariff policies could lead to rising inflation and declining average household income, predicting an inflation rate of at least 3% for the year [3]

欧洲央行管委Vujcic：欧洲央行在利率方面处于非常有利的地位。 欧洲央行可以等待新的预测和数据，然后再采取下一步行动。 希望我们能在9月份之前有关税方面更明确的信息。 不知道美国的关税是（导致）通货紧缩还是通货膨胀。 不稳定的美国政策正推动投资者转向欧元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on June 10, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and chemical futures, and gives resistance and support levels [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided. For the whole of June 2025, they are also expected to have a generally strong - oscillating trend [2][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels [3][39]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2508 are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 10, 2025, while silver futures AG2508 are likely to oscillate strongly and may hit a new high. For June 2025, gold futures are expected to have a wide - range strong - oscillating trend, and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly and break through key resistance levels [3][45][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper (CU2507), aluminum (AL2507) futures are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, while alumina (AO2509), zinc (ZN2507), nickel (NI2507), rebar (RB2510), hot - rolled coil (HC2510), iron ore (I2509) futures are likely to oscillate weakly. Different resistance and support levels are given for each [3][4][5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures SC2507 are expected to oscillate strongly on June 10, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels. For June 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range strong - oscillating trend [5][95]. - **Chemical Futures**: PTA (TA509) futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate on June 10, 2025, while PVC (V2509), methanol (MA509), and natural rubber (RU2509) futures are likely to oscillate weakly, with corresponding resistance and support levels [7][101][103]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and continued on June 10 [8]. - **Domestic Policies**: The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion on improving people's livelihood, and the State Council carried out a special study on promoting the integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation [8][9]. - **Economic Data**: In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and PPI was still at a low level. In the first five months, China's total import and export value increased by 2.5% year - on - year, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 3.8% [8][9]. - **International News**: The US Senate Republicans plan to propose a revised tax and healthcare bill, the US may hit the debt ceiling between mid - August and late September, and consumer inflation expectations in the US decreased in May [10]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **International Futures Market**: On June 9, international precious metals futures closed mixed, and international oil prices strengthened. The first recycled metal futures option, cast aluminum alloy, was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 10 [12]. - **Exchange - Rate Information**: Hong Kong will maintain the linked exchange rate system, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on June 9. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [12][13][14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 all showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling back, with different degrees of increase. The A - share market oscillated and rebounded, and the Hong Kong stock market was strong [14][15][16][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 9, the ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 both showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling back, with different degrees of increase. The central bank carried out 1738 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 1738 billion yuan [36][41]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: On June 9, gold futures AU2508 fell, while silver futures AG2508 rose and hit a new high [45][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: On June 9, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures showed different trends of rise and fall [54][59][63][68][71][77][80][83]. - **Energy Futures**: On June 9, crude oil futures SC2507 rose [95]. - **Chemical Futures**: On June 9, PTA, PVC, methanol, and natural rubber futures showed different trends of rise and fall [101][103][105][108].