Group 1 - The core point of the news is the appointment of Stephen Milan as a new Federal Reserve Board member following the unexpected resignation of Governor Kugler, with Milan's term set to last until January 31, 2026 [2][4] - Milan's appointment is seen as a temporary measure by President Trump, allowing him to make a more permanent selection for the Federal Reserve Board and potentially the next Fed Chair [5] - Milan has previously criticized the Fed's policies under Powell, particularly opposing interest rate cuts, but has shifted his stance to support rate reductions under the current economic conditions [6] Group 2 - The market is speculating on potential candidates to succeed current Fed Chair Powell, with Waller, Hassett, and Walsh being prominent names; Waller is viewed as a favorable choice for maintaining continuity in the Fed's leadership [8] - If the new Fed Chair is perceived as aligned with Trump's views, it could lead to negative market reactions due to concerns over the Fed's independence [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process involves multiple members, and even if a Trump-aligned Chair is appointed, it may not significantly influence the broader Federal Open Market Committee [9] Group 3 - Disagreements within the Fed are intensifying, as evidenced by the recent decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change [11] - Two Fed governors voted against the rate decision, indicating a divide in opinions on monetary policy direction, with some advocating for a shift towards a more neutral stance to mitigate economic risks [11][12] - Inflation concerns are rising, with the Atlanta Fed President warning about persistent inflation risks due to changing tariff policies and supply chain issues, as consumer inflation expectations have increased [12]

Group 1: Oil Market Impact - International oil prices have been significantly affected by geopolitical developments, with WTI crude oil falling below $64, closing at $63.6 per barrel, marking a two-month low, while Brent crude oil dropped to $66.43 per barrel, down 1.36% [1][3] - President Trump announced a potential summit with Russian President Putin to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine war, while also indicating the possibility of further punitive measures against Russian oil [1] - An executive order was signed to double tariffs on Indian oil to 50%, effective within 21 days, and additional tariffs on another country purchasing Russian oil were mentioned [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a historic high in gold inventory, exceeding 36 tons, with a near doubling of registered gold bars for futures contracts in the past month, driven by strong demand for futures and arbitrage trading [5] - The increase in deliverable gold supply may suppress short-term price increases, although the long-term outlook for gold remains dependent on macroeconomic conditions, interest rate policies, and safe-haven demand [5] - Gold prices reached a high of $3385 per ounce but failed to break the weekly high, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the labor market and economic growth, suggesting potential investment risks in related sectors [5][12][41]. Core Insights - The U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant slowdown, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by an average of only 35,000 over the past three months, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs for May and June [5][6]. - The unemployment rate has risen, indicating that job seekers are facing increased difficulties in finding employment, which poses risks to consumer and business spending [5][12]. - Despite a 3% annualized growth in GDP, the final sales to private domestic purchasers have reached their lowest growth rate since the end of 2022, reflecting weak underlying demand [11][12]. - Manufacturing activity has contracted at the fastest pace in nine months, with 25% of U.S. manufacturers reporting a reduction in employment due to declining orders [12][14]. - The average U.S. tariff rate has reached its highest level since World War II, with significant implications for trade dynamics and economic performance [39][41]. Summary by Sections Labor Market - The labor market is transitioning to a slower growth phase, with rising unemployment and stagnant wage growth, which could further dampen consumer and business spending [5][6][12]. - The manufacturing sector is particularly affected, with a notable decline in employment and activity levels [12][14]. Economic Growth - The U.S. GDP growth remains robust at 3%, but the underlying demand indicators suggest a weakening economy [11][12]. - The trade policies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. are contributing to economic uncertainty and may hinder future growth prospects [39][41]. Trade and Tariffs - The report highlights the impact of increased tariffs on trade relationships and economic activity, with the average tariff rate now at 15%, significantly higher than previous years [39][41]. - The implications of these tariffs are expected to affect both domestic manufacturers and international trade partners [39][41].

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets experienced significant volatility due to a series of tweets from former President Trump, leading to an unprecedented 18% drop in copper prices, the largest single-day decline since 1986 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On July 31, global copper prices fell sharply, impacting commodity markets and leading to slight declines in global stock markets [1][2]. - The sudden drop in copper prices was attributed to Trump's announcement that only semi-finished copper products would be subject to tariffs, excluding raw materials [3][4]. - Following the announcement, major banks like Citibank and Morgan Stanley issued reports predicting a drastic reduction in U.S. copper imports and a significant drop in copper prices [3][4]. Group 2: Employment Data Manipulation - Trump accused the former head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics of manipulating employment data to benefit political interests, leading to her dismissal [9][12]. - The revised employment data revealed a much worse job market than previously reported, indicating a severe economic downturn [12][9]. - The manipulation of employment statistics was cited as a reason for the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, which Trump argued was detrimental to the economy [12][4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged added pressure to global markets, although it was largely anticipated [4][7]. - Trump's reaction to the Fed's decision included calls for resignations and accusations of mismanagement, which contributed to market uncertainty [17][19]. - The probability of a rate cut increased significantly following Trump's comments, leading to a drop in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in the markets [17][19]. Group 4: A-shares Market Response - Despite global market declines, the A-shares market showed resilience, with expectations of minimal impact from the U.S. market's volatility [23][26]. - The A-shares market had previously experienced a strong upward trend, and the recent adjustments were viewed as a healthy correction rather than a panic response [23][28]. - The anticipated U.S. rate cuts and the subsequent release of capital were seen as potential long-term benefits for the A-shares market [28][27].

此前两天，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒宣布将辞去美联储理事职位，其任职期原定于明年1月到期。 同时，特朗普还因为劳动力市场数据显示就业增长疲软，解雇了劳工统计局局长埃里卡·麦肯塔弗。 在全球经济增长轨迹令人担忧的背景下，这两起人事变动可能会影响特朗普的经济议程。这让特朗普有 机会任命更符合其政府政策的人选，并进一步给美联储主席鲍威尔施加压力。 打开降息"后门" 7月30日，美联储连续第五次维持利率不变，鲍威尔表示，美联储在制定利率政策时不会考虑联邦政府 的财政需求，且不会提前决定9月的利率，其强调要依据经济数据作出决策。 当天，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和副主席米歇尔·鲍曼在议息会议上罕见地投下反对票，支持立即降 息25个基点，引发外界关注。 当地时间8月3日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在几天内宣布新的美联储理事和劳工统计局局长。 特朗普与美联储的"恩怨"可谓由来已久，且近期持续升级，主要围绕利率政策展开。 库格勒辞职后，特朗普在毫无证据的情况下声称，她辞职是因为在利率问题上与鲍威尔存在分歧，并再 次批评鲍威尔，要求他辞职。 不过，现年55岁的库格勒在提交给特朗普的辞呈中未说明离职原因，仅提到她将于今年秋季重返 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by macroeconomic changes and political pressures, particularly from former President Trump advocating for lower rates to stimulate the economy [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% due to concerns over inflation and tariff expectations, despite calls for a rate cut from some members [3][4]. - Chairman Powell highlighted that the core PCE inflation remains above the 2% target at approximately 2.7%, and the labor market is still strong with GDP growth rebounding to 3% [3][4]. Trump's Rate Cut Logic - Trump criticized Powell for being slow to act and suggested lowering rates to 1% or lower to stimulate the economy and alleviate inflation pressures [3][4]. - The White House supports using tariff revenues to fund stimulus policies, believing that market reactions have not fully accounted for these effects [3][4]. Market Consensus - Current market expectations for a rate cut in September are around 45% to 60%, down from earlier expectations of 70% [4]. Delaney's Perspective on Web3 Assets - If a rate cut occurs, it could enhance market liquidity and leverage willingness, supporting risk assets [6]. - A loose dollar environment may drive global capital towards on-chain assets and DeFi, but excessive rate cuts could lead to credit expansion and potential asset bubble risks [6]. - If rates remain unchanged, the focus for Web3 asset allocation should shift from momentum trends to the dynamic intersection of economic and policy variables [6][8]. Neutral Integration of Market Views - Rate-cut advocates argue that inflation pressures are manageable and labor data shows signs of weakness, necessitating immediate cuts to relieve economic stress [6][9]. - The cautious stance of the Fed is seen as beneficial for controlling inflation, though it may suppress consumption and loan demand, impacting certain economic indicators that could affect on-chain assets [8][9]. - Data remains the core support for policy decisions, and the current policy debate should not be oversimplified as a political confrontation but viewed as a market response to data cycles and monetary policy [10].

Core Points - The resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler creates an opportunity for President Trump to nominate a new member, potentially influencing monetary policy in the coming months [1][2][3] - Trump's dismissal of Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre following disappointing employment data indicates dissatisfaction with current economic reporting [1][6] Group 1: Federal Reserve Changes - Adriana Kugler's resignation from the Federal Reserve Board will take effect on August 8, and she plans to return to Georgetown University as a professor [2] - Kugler's term was originally set to expire in January 2026, and she was appointed by President Biden in September 2023 [2] - Trump's excitement over the vacancy suggests he may seek to appoint a more favorable candidate to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [1][3] Group 2: Employment Data and Market Reaction - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, leading to a market crash where over $1 trillion in market value was lost [1][6] - The disappointing employment data prompted a surge in market expectations for a rate cut in September, rising from under 40% to 80% [5] - Trump's claims of data manipulation by McEntyre, although unsubstantiated, reflect a broader narrative of dissatisfaction with economic statistics leading up to the 2024 election [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler and President Trump's subsequent actions indicate a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership and monetary policy direction, which could have significant implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Changes - Adriana Kugler announced her resignation from the Federal Reserve Board effective August 8, 2023, to return to Georgetown University as a professor [2]. - Trump's excitement over Kugler's resignation suggests he may seek to nominate individuals aligned with his economic views to the Federal Reserve Board, potentially influencing future interest rate policies [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, all of whom are permanent voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with appointments made by the President and confirmed by the Senate [2]. Group 2: Employment Data and Market Reaction - The U.S. labor market showed disappointing results in July, with only 73,000 new jobs added, leading to a significant drop in the stock market, with over $1 trillion in market value lost [5]. - Trump's dismissal of Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre was based on allegations of political manipulation of employment data, although no evidence was provided [5]. - Following the release of the poor employment data, market expectations for a rate cut in September surged from under 40% to 80% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding interest rate policies, highlighting the political implications of monetary policy decisions as the election approaches [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive refusal to lower rates, which Trump perceives as detrimental to his re-election campaign [1][3]. - High interest rates are constraining consumer spending, credit availability, and overall economic liquidity, which are critical for Trump's economic narrative [3][4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's public criticism of Powell reflects a broader struggle for control over monetary policy, as he seeks immediate economic stimulus to bolster his electoral prospects [4][6]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as a crucial element for maintaining market stability, with Powell's resistance to political pressure seen as vital for the integrity of the U.S. dollar [3][6][10]. Group 3: Implications for Trust in Monetary Policy - The article warns that if Trump continues to exert pressure on the Fed, it could undermine global confidence in the U.S. monetary system, leading to potential economic instability [9][10]. - Powell's role is characterized as that of a guardian of monetary policy integrity, while Trump's approach is likened to that of a desperate gambler threatening the system [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown a 4.02% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 industries [3][12]. - The small metals sector has surged by 14.01%, while precious metals have declined by 3.84% during the same period [18]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to a reduction in expectations for interest rate cuts, impacting the prices of precious and industrial metals [5][60]. Market Performance Summary - As of July 31, 2025, the LME copper price is at $9,607/ton, aluminum at $2,562.5/ton, lead at $1,969.50/ton, zinc at $2,762/ton, nickel at $14,950/ton, and tin at $32,685/ton [24][60]. - The COMEX gold price is $3,342.30/ounce, down $7.5 since early July, while silver is at $36.79/ounce, up $0.54 [35][60]. Subsector Analysis - Rare earth prices have stabilized and increased due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with the rare earth price index at 204.36, up 22.35 since early July [43][63]. - Tungsten prices are rising due to supply constraints and increased demand from the new energy and military sectors, with average tungsten concentrate prices at 192,900 yuan/ton, up 19,000 yuan [63]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on China Rare Earth (000831) and Kinglong Permanent Magnet (300748) due to their expected profitability improvements [64]. - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) is also highlighted for its strategic value in the tungsten market [63].