Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating ongoing affordability challenges for households due to rising prices of essential goods and services like beef and electricity [1] - The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) noted that the CPI increase slowed, partly due to a 43-day federal government shutdown that delayed data collection until late November, coinciding with holiday season discounts from retailers [1] - White House officials welcomed the report, with economic advisor Hassett stating that the U.S. economy is showing high growth and declining inflation, while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee highlighted positive aspects of the latest CPI data, suggesting it could pave the way for further rate cuts next year if the trend continues [1] - Economists cautioned against over-interpreting the report, while additional data showed a decrease of 13,000 in initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13, adjusted to 224,000, indicating stable labor market conditions in December [1] - Gold prices fell as the market absorbed the lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, reducing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge, although rising unemployment rates provided some support, with spot gold down 0.2% to around $4,331.89 per ounce [1] Technical Analysis - The current gold price (XAUUSD) is viewed as having initiated a new upward wave from the support level of 4,170, with expectations for a fifth wave upward following a corrective phase [4] - The overall trend indicates that gold has completed a prolonged period of consolidation and has confirmed a breakout, showing a stepwise upward movement [4] - The MACD indicator suggests a decrease in trading volume, and the recommendation is to focus on long positions during dips [4] Trading Strategy - For gold, a long position is suggested around 4,308.0, with a stop loss at 4,288.0 and a target range of 4,328.0 to 4,348.0 [5] - For silver (XAGUSD), a new upward movement has started from the support level of 56.40, currently in a corrective phase, with expectations for a follow-up upward movement [7] - The MACD indicator shows that bullish momentum is significantly stronger than bearish momentum, and the recommendation is to focus on long positions during dips for silver as well [7]

Group 1 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 13,000 to 224,000 for the week ending December 13, slightly below economists' expectations of 225,000, indicating stability in the labor market [1] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits reached 1.897 million, lower than the market expectation of 1.93 million, suggesting a relatively stable employment situation despite fluctuations in claims [1] - A survey of 548 CFOs indicated that tariffs remain a primary concern, impacting hiring decisions as employers are hesitant to increase recruitment amid economic uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021, due to data collection issues caused by a prolonged government shutdown [2] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, signaling a pause in further rate cuts as they seek clearer signals on the job market and inflation trends [2] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits increased by 67,000 to 1.897 million, indicating a weak hiring environment and suggesting that some unemployed individuals are remaining jobless for extended periods [2]

Group 1: Macro News - The President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bostic, indicated that the U.S. labor market is cooling but does not expect a significant slowdown. He warned that failing to achieve inflation targets for years could damage the credibility of the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding expectations of a 45,000 increase, while October saw a decrease of 105,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November, higher than the expected 4.5% [2] Group 2: Institutional Views - Based on the latest U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve policy signals, the gold and silver markets may experience short-term fluctuations with potential upward movements but lack follow-through. The unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% has raised concerns about economic cooling, providing technical rebound momentum for gold and silver prices [3] - The significant increase in non-farm payrolls indicates that the labor market remains robust. The emphasis from the Atlanta Fed President on the risks of premature rate cuts reinforces expectations for a restrictive monetary policy, which is likely to limit the upside potential for gold and silver prices [3] - Overall, while market sentiment may see temporary boosts from data fluctuations, the clear commitment of the Federal Reserve to control inflation suggests that gold and silver prices will face significant pressure at relatively high levels, with risks of pullbacks accumulating after any upward movements [3]

因美国政府停摆，多项核心经济数据被迫调整发布日程，而将于周四早间出炉的通胀数据，将是本轮调 整后发布的最后一份重磅经济报告。市场预计，报告将显示 11 月物价涨幅仍高于美联储设定的目标。 11 月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告定于美国东部时间周四上午 8：30 （北京时间周四晚9:30）发布，整 体物价同比涨幅预计达到 3.1%。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心消费者价格指数同比涨幅预计同样为 3.1%。 此前有通胀数据记录的 9 月，整体 CPI 与核心 CPI 的同比涨幅均为 3.0%。 由于美国政府停摆，劳工统计局此前取消了 10 月通胀报告的发布，因此本次公布的 11 月数据，将是自 9 月以来的首份官方通胀报告。这也意味着，11 月整体 CPI 和核心 CPI 将不会发布环比涨幅数据。 美联储在上周公布的经济预期中指出，在 2025 年年底连续三次降息 25 个基点后，2026 年全年或将仅 再降息一次。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：郭明煜 因美国政府停摆，多项核心经济数据被迫调整发布日程，而将于周四早间出炉的通胀数据，将是本轮调 整后发布的最后一份重磅经济报告。市场预计， ...

Core Insights - The labor force participation rate in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina for Q3 2025 is reported at 51.2%, with an employment rate of 44.7% and an unemployment rate of 12.8% [1][2] Summary by Categories Labor Force Statistics - The total working-age population in the Federation is 1.847 million, with 946,000 being economically active, representing 51.2% of the total population [1] - The number of employed individuals stands at 825,000, accounting for 44.7% of the working-age population, while the unemployed population is 121,000, which is 6.5% of the total [1] Quarterly Changes - On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the number of employed individuals increased by 5.7%, and the number of unemployed decreased by 8.8% [2] - The total economically active population rose by 3.6%, with the employment rate increasing by 2.4% and the unemployment rate decreasing by 1.7% [2] Yearly Changes - Year-over-year, the number of employed individuals increased by 3.3%, and the number of unemployed decreased by 6.2% [2] - The total economically active population grew by 2.0%, with the employment rate rising by 1.4% and the unemployment rate falling by 1.1% [2] Gender Structure - Among the economically active population, there are 570,000 males (60.2%) and 376,000 females (39.8%) [2] - In terms of employment, males account for 513,000 (62.2%) while females represent 312,000 (37.8%) [2] - The unemployed population consists of 56,000 males (46.5%) and 65,000 females (53.5%) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. job market is showing signs of slowing down, with November non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, which is above the market expectation of 50,000, but the previous month's figures were significantly revised down by 105,000 due to a one-time impact from the Trump administration's delayed resignation plan [1][2] - The unemployment rate in November rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, slightly above the market expectation of 4.5%. This increase is primarily attributed to a rise in labor force participation, while the proportion of permanent job losses has decreased, somewhat mitigating the severity of the unemployment rate increase [1][2] - The U6 unemployment rate saw a significant rise from 8.0% to 8.7%, indicating increased pressure on marginal labor and part-time workers, which is a point of concern [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts is not expected to be significantly influenced by the November employment data, as the mixed signals from job growth and rising unemployment do not indicate a substantial increase in recession probabilities [2][3] - The market's reaction to the employment data has been muted, reflecting a mild "rate cut trade" characteristic, suggesting that the Fed has time to maintain its current stance on interest rates [2] - Expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be catalyzed by two main factors: the continued unexpected rise in the unemployment rate and additional dovish signals from the new Fed chair [3]

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 11月美国新增非农就业人数6.4万（市场预期5.0万），10月新增就业人数则因联邦政府裁员而大幅下降10.5 万；11月失业率升至4.6%（市场预期4.5%），劳动参与率小幅上升至62.5%（市场预期62.4%），平均时薪同 比增速减速至3.5%（市场预期3.6%）。10月失业率及其它家庭调查数据因政府停摆永久缺失。 图1：11月美国失业率陡峭上行至4.6% 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 失业率陡峭上行更多来自暂时性因素扰动，从数据细节看就业市场仍有韧性，可能已经接近本轮周期底部。供 给扩张受到保守移民政策与老龄化的双重限制，移民劳工增长已经陷入停滞，黄金年龄段劳动参与率则较疫前 高出1.6pct，失业上行阻力越来越大。需求收缩同样缺乏长期持续的基础，政府裁员及停摆的冲击告一段落， 关税对相关行业的影响亦在衰减，职位空缺数已于8月见底回升。 图2：供给增加是失业率边际上行的重要原因 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 图3：黄金年龄段劳动参与率或已达峰 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 "双目标"前景符合预期，美联储大概率按计划放缓降息节奏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a "weak labor supply" is misleading; excluding the broad contributions of AI, the US economy is essentially on the brink of recession [3][24]. Labor Market Dynamics - The US labor supply continues to recover, contributing to a rising unemployment rate, which is a concerning trend as it indicates a weakening "service-employment-income-consumption" chain [3][24]. - The unemployment rate is becoming a critical indicator for observing the US economy, with the Federal Reserve showing increased concern over the rising unemployment rate starting in the second half of 2025 [5][27]. - The labor supply situation is uneven, with "red states" experiencing growth while "blue states" see employment levels contracting, leading to a more alarming signal regarding economic sensitivity [5][27]. Employment Trends - The structure of non-farm payroll employment remains unbalanced, heavily reliant on the education and healthcare sectors, with other private sector job growth showing minimal positive changes [9][31]. - A significant reduction in government employment due to a buyout program has led to the lowest year-on-year growth rate since May 2021, while private sector job growth approaches a low point [11][32]. - The volatility in job creation and economic expectations is affecting the overall stability of the labor market, which is reflected in the high fluctuations of new employment figures [15][36]. Wage Growth and Economic Impact - Wage growth has slipped to 3.5% year-on-year, presenting challenges to purchasing power despite real wage growth remaining positive [16][37]. - The anticipated impact of interest rate cuts on employment appears to be overestimated, as the rising unemployment rate and limited job growth distribution indicate a weakening economic environment [18][40].

Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - Powell described the U.S. labor market as a "curious kind of balance" due to a marked slowing in both supply and demand for workers[3] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise further as labor supply continues to recover, indicating that "weak labor supply" is misleading[3] - The employment distribution is narrowing, heavily reliant on the education and healthcare sectors, signaling a weakening "service-employment-income-consumption" chain[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The unemployment rate is becoming a key indicator for observing the U.S. economy, with a significant rise expected in the second half of 2025[9] - The unemployment rate reached 4.564% in November, exceeding the Federal Reserve's forecast of 4.5% for the end of 2025[13] - The anticipated rise in unemployment may trigger a "recession trade" as the Federal Reserve's tolerance for rising unemployment is limited[13] Group 3: Interest Rate and Employment Impact - The ability to suppress the unemployment rate depends on factors such as the relative position to "neutral interest rates" and the clarity of fiscal and monetary policy paths[14] - There is a risk that the impact of interest rate cuts on employment may be overestimated, with smaller stimulus effects and longer lag times[31] - The structure of non-farm payrolls remains weak, with private sector job growth largely stagnant outside of the education and healthcare sectors[14] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Increased uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[5] - Global economic conditions may worsen under clearer tariffs, potentially leading to unexpected global monetary easing[5] - Data measurement errors could impact the accuracy of economic assessments[5]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a "weak labor supply" is misleading; without the broad contributions of AI, the US economy is essentially on the brink of recession [4][21]. Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - The US labor market is characterized by a peculiar balance of weak supply and demand, leading to a rising unemployment rate [4]. - The unemployment rate is becoming a critical indicator for observing the US economy, with a notable increase expected in the latter half of 2025 [5]. - The labor supply is not significantly impacted by illegal immigration, as the net inflow of immigrants has nearly stagnated [5]. - A "K-shaped" distribution is observed, where labor supply and demand are growing rapidly in deep red states, while blue states, which are more sensitive to economic changes, are experiencing a contraction in employment levels [5]. Group 2: Employment Trends - The non-farm payroll employment structure remains unbalanced, heavily reliant on the education and healthcare sectors, with minimal growth in other private sectors [10]. - A significant reduction in government employment due to a buyout program has led to the lowest year-on-year growth rate since May 2021 [11]. - The volatility in employment figures reflects broader economic uncertainties, impacting the "service-employment-income-consumption" chain [15]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The rising unemployment rate, including both U3 and U6 metrics, raises concerns about how to limit its further increase [7]. - The Federal Reserve's confidence in not seeing a further rise in unemployment by 2026 is questioned, especially as the current unemployment rate of 4.564% exceeds previous forecasts [7]. - Factors influencing the suppression of unemployment include the relative position to "neutral interest rates," the resolution of policy uncertainties, and the anticipated decline in labor supply [8]. Group 4: Wage Growth and Consumer Impact - Wage growth has slipped to 3.5%, presenting challenges to consumer purchasing power despite real wage growth remaining positive [17]. - The inflation in non-residential services and goods is contributing to a greater strain on residents' purchasing power [17]. Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - The expectation for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026 is becoming more optimistic, but the limited impact of previous rate cuts on employment raises concerns [21]. - The overall economic condition, excluding AI contributions, suggests that the US economy is nearing a recession, with ongoing pressures on employment demand [21].