Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Bullock expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5% despite ongoing global economic uncertainties and unpredictability [1] Economic Indicators - Monthly data suggests that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not meet expectations [1] - A significant drop in CPI alongside only a slight increase in unemployment rate is surprising [1] Monetary Policy - The committee is seeking a cautious and gradual path for monetary easing [1] - The RBA's rate hikes have been smaller compared to other central banks, indicating that extensive rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains tight, with expectations of some easing by the end of the year [1] - Leading indicators do not suggest a significant rise in the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that the labor market is only slowly easing, with the unemployment rate remaining relatively low [1] - There is no specific target set for the unemployment rate or the number of job reductions [1]

澳洲联储主席布洛克：6月份失业率上升符合我们的预测，不是"意外"。 ...

澳洲联储主席布洛克：就业市场的领先指标并未表明失业率将上升。其他劳动力市场指标，如空缺率， 一直保持稳定。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Federal Reserve's monetary policy** and its implications for the **North American economy** as of July 2025 Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Activity**: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its assessment that economic activity is expanding at "a solid pace" with the labor market described as "solid" and inflation being "somewhat elevated" [5][6][12] - **GDP Growth**: For the second quarter of 2025, GDP growth is tracked at **2.2% quarter-over-quarter annual rate**, with estimates from the Atlanta Fed at **2.4%** and the NY Fed at **1.7%** [7] - **Labor Market**: The unemployment rate remains low, unchanged from the previous year, although payroll growth has slowed [8][15] - **Inflation Trends**: The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated new price pressures due to tariffs, with inflation expected to rise to **3.0%** for headline PCE and **3.2%** for core PCE in 2025 [14] - **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs are acting as a tax on consumption and capital, contributing to slower growth forecasts for consumption and nonresidential fixed investment [13] - **Future Rate Expectations**: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep the target funds rate unchanged at **4.25-4.50%** until March 2026, followed by a series of cuts [16] Additional Important Insights - **Recession Probabilities**: The probability of the US economy entering a recession is highlighted, with various scenarios presented for potential recession timing [41][45] - **Dissenting Opinions**: Expected dissents from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman regarding the need for a rate cut of **25 basis points** at the next meeting [10] - **Policy Positioning**: Chair Powell is expected to emphasize the evolving nature of trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies and their uncertain effects on the economy [12] - **Employment Growth Forecast**: Employment growth is projected to slow significantly, from **130,000** jobs per month in the first half of 2025 to around **50,000** in 2026 [15] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.

中国台湾6月失业率 3.34%，预期3.3%，前值3.34%。 ...

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year and 5-year loans remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of July 21, 2025 [1] - The recent stability in policy interest rates has kept the LPR pricing foundation unchanged, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate serving as the new pricing anchor [2] - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target [2] Group 2 - The net interest margin of commercial banks has been under pressure, with the average net interest margin dropping to a historical low of 1.43% at the end of Q1, a decrease of 9 basis points from the end of the previous year [4] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in the first half of the year was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was about 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [4] - The high proportion of time deposits continues to limit the overall downward space for deposit costs, despite a significant reduction in deposit rates [4] Group 3 - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in Q3 or Q4, with expectations that the LPR may follow suit [5] - The ongoing trade tensions are likely to slow down export growth, necessitating a focus on domestic demand [5] - The low nominal interest rates combined with persistently low PPI are leading to higher real financing costs, which may impact effective credit demand [5]

Group 1: Healthcare and Insurance - The 2024 resident medical insurance surplus reached 51.942 billion RMB, an increase of over 40 billion RMB compared to the previous year, despite a decline in the number of insured individuals [1] - The total expenditure growth rate of the medical insurance fund has decreased to 5.5%, down from 14.7% in 2023 [1] - The total number of cross-regional medical visits in 2024 was 397 million, a 63.2% increase year-on-year, with total expenses amounting to 786.774 billion RMB, up 10.6% [1] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - The unemployment rate for urban labor aged 16-24 was 14.5% in June, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking four consecutive months of decline [3] - The overall urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first half of the year, with June's rate at 5.0% [3] - The unemployment rate for the 30-59 age group increased slightly, indicating challenges for middle-aged workers in finding new employment [4] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The 11th batch of national drug procurement has been initiated, with significant changes including the removal of the "lowest price" benchmark and increased quality supervision [5] - The new procurement rules aim to balance the interests of pharmaceutical companies and patients, ensuring that drug prices remain reasonable while maintaining quality [7] - The focus on clinical usage and transparency in procurement processes is expected to enhance the effectiveness of drug procurement [7] Group 4: European Union Budget - The European Commission proposed a new budget of 2 trillion euros for 2028-2034, significantly higher than the current budget of 1.21 trillion euros, focusing on defense, economic competitiveness, and agricultural subsidy reforms [8] - The proposal faces opposition from key member states like Germany and France, which may hinder its approval [9] Group 5: E-commerce and Delivery Services - Douyin has adjusted its food delivery business model from open access to targeted invitations, focusing on quality merchants [10] - The introduction of the AI product "Tanfang" aims to enhance user experience by providing a comprehensive service from restaurant discovery to order placement [10] - Douyin's strategy appears to be a shift towards differentiated competition rather than engaging in aggressive subsidies [11] Group 6: Securities Industry - The number of securities practitioners in China has decreased by 7,268 to 329,100, marking a net reduction of 25,000 over the past two years [12] - Factors contributing to this decline include reduced IPO activity, lower brokerage commissions, and the digital transformation of securities firms [13] - The demand for talent in the securities industry is shifting, with a growing emphasis on research capabilities and the potential for AI to replace certain roles [14] Group 7: Foreign Investment Trends - South Korean investors have made over 5.4 billion USD in transactions in China's stock markets this year, making it the second-largest overseas investment destination for them [15] - The focus of Korean investments is primarily on Hong Kong stocks, with significant net purchases in companies like Xiaomi and BYD [15] - Despite a general interest in the Chinese market, the actual engagement from foreign investors remains largely speculative rather than long-term [16] Group 8: Stock Market Performance - On July 17, the stock market experienced a rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.76% [17] - The market saw active trading with a total turnover of 1.54 trillion RMB, indicating a robust trading environment [17] - Various sectors, including AI hardware and military stocks, showed strong performance, while real estate and banking sectors lagged [18]

特区政府劳工及福利局局长孙玉菡表示，香港不同行业正在转型，相关失业率升降趋势会有差别。展望 未来，失业率走势取决于整体经济表现。应届毕业生和离校人士在夏季投入劳工市场，或影响整体就业 情况。不过，香港经济继续扩张，应会为劳工市场提供支持。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 香港最新失业率维持3.5% 低于市场预期 中新社香港7月17日电 (记者 魏华都)香港特区政府统计处17日公布，2025年4月至6月香港经季节性调整 的失业率为3.5%，与上一阶段(2025年3月至5月)相同。就业不足率在该两段期间也保持不变，维持 1.4%。 7月17日，香港特区政府统计处公布，2025年4月至6月香港经季节性调整的失业率为3.5%。图为2025年 5月，香港中环一带人流如织。(资料图) 中新社记者 侯宇 摄 与上一阶段比较，今年4月至6月各行业失业率变动不一，艺术、娱乐及康乐活动业，以及专业及商用服 务业(不包括清洁及同类活动)下降，建造业和餐饮服务活动业则上升。各行业的就业不足率亦变动不 一，但幅度普遍不大。 数据显示，今年4月至6月总就业人数减少至365.73万人，减少约7400人；总劳动人口降至379.35万人， 减少约70 ...

美联储理事库格勒：鉴于失业率低和关税带来的建房价格压力，将利率政策利率保持稳定"一段时间"是 合适的。 ...