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玉米淀粉日报-20250910
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 09:38
Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Corn Starch Daily Report [2] - Report date: September 10, 2025 [2][3] - Industry: Agricultural products (corn and corn starch) [1][2] Group 2: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - For corn, although the US corn price has declined, there is still potential for a rebound as the US corn yield may be revised downwards. Chinese tariffs on US corn and sorghum are relatively high, but foreign corn import profit is still significant. Domestic corn spot prices are expected to decline with the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, with North China corn possibly reaching 2200 yuan/ton and Heilongjiang corn below 2100 yuan/ton by the end of September [5][7] - For starch, the inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on corn price and downstream inventory. With weak demand in the medium - to - long term, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The short - term 01 starch futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market - Corn futures: C2601 closed at 2170, down 18 (-0.83%); C2605 at 2240, down 14 (-0.63%); C2509 at 2285, unchanged. CS2601 closed at 2502, down 25 (-1.00%); CS2605 at 2588, down 20 (-0.77%); CS2509 at 2502, unchanged [3] - Volume and open interest: The volume of C2601 decreased by 6.09% to 199,387, and open interest decreased by 0.12% to 422,160. The volume of CS2601 increased by 33.94% to 23,644, and open interest increased by 4.45% to 58,145 [3] Spot and Basis - Corn spot: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2220 yuan in Qinggang to 2450 yuan in Guangdong ports. The basis of corn in different regions ranges from - 105 to 165 [3] - Starch spot: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2700 yuan in Longfeng to 2990 yuan in Yufeng. The basis of starch in different regions ranges from 112 to 402 [3] Spread - Corn inter - delivery spread: C01 - C05 was - 70, down 4; C05 - C09 was - 45, down 14; C09 - C01 was 115, up 18 [3] - Starch inter - delivery spread: CS01 - CS05 was - 86, down 5; CS05 - CS09 was 86, down 20; CS09 - CS01 was 0, up 25 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CS09 - C09 was 217, unchanged; CS01 - C01 was 332, down 7; CS05 - C05 was 348, down 6 [3] Group 5: Market Judgment Summary Corn - International factors: The US corn price has declined, but there is potential for a rebound as the yield may be revised downwards. Chinese tariffs on US corn and sorghum have been adjusted, and foreign corn import profit is high [5] - Domestic factors: Northern port prices are stable, and Northeast corn spot is strong, while North China corn spot has declined due to increased supply. Wheat prices in North China are weak, and wheat continues to substitute for corn. Domestic breeding demand is weak, and feed enterprise inventories are high. With imports, domestic auctions, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline [5][7] Starch - Supply - side factors: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and Shandong corn prices are stable. Corn starch inventory has decreased this week, with the current inventory at 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 3.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.2% [8] - Price - influencing factors: Starch prices mainly depend on corn prices and downstream inventory. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. With weak demand in the medium - to - long term, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state [8] Group 6: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to wait and see for the 01 corn contract [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 7: Corn Option Strategy - For enterprises with spot positions, it is recommended to close out short positions in corn call options or try short - term high - selling and rolling operations [14] Group 8: Relevant Attachments - The report includes six figures showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of corn starch 01 contract [16][17][18][20]
硅铁:市场反内卷信息再度升温,偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:37
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The market anti - involution information of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has heated up again, showing a strong and volatile trend [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2511, ferrosilicon 2601, silicomanganese 2511, and silicomanganese 2601 are 5598, 5554, 5830, and 5844 respectively, with price changes of 102, 92, 112, and 114 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 212,383, 84,230, 82,234, and 253,536, and the open interests are 240,781, 108,371, 118,249, and 324,869 respectively [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.5 yuan/ton degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) is - 348 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton; the basis of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) is - 164 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan/ton. The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 44 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the near - far month price difference of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 is - 14 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price difference of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 is 232 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price difference of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 is 290 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On September 5th, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi, Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia is 5150 - 5300 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 ferrosilicon is 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton, and the FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton. The northern offer of 6517 silicomanganese is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the southern offer is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [2]. - **Steel Mill Procurement Information**: Henan Minyuan Iron and Steel set the procurement price of ferrosilicon at 5520 yuan/ton in cash, with a quantity of 1000 tons. Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5750 yuan/ton in electronic vouchers, with a quantity of 600 tons. Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the price of silicomanganese at 5790 yuan/ton in bank acceptance, with a procurement volume of 1700 tons. A steel mill in Henan set the standard price of silicomanganese at 5730 yuan/ton in cash, with an actual procurement volume of 4000 tons. An East China steel mill set the standard price of silicomanganese at 5800 yuan/ton for 2000 tons, 5900 yuan/ton for 1000 tons, and 5760 yuan/ton for 400 tons, all in acceptance - inclusive delivered - to - factory prices [2][3]. - **Manganese Ore News**: South32 announced the offer price of South African semi - carbonate lump (typical value Mn36.9%) in October 2025 at 4.1 dollars/ton degree, up 0.05 dollars/ton degree month - on - month; the offer price of Australian lump (typical value Mn42%) is 4.5 dollars/ton degree, up 0.05 dollars/ton degree month - on - month [5]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of this Friday, the inventory of Tianjin Port is 366.31 million tons, up 3.61 million tons month - on - month; the inventory of Qinzhou Port is 70.17 million tons, down 3.51 million tons month - on - month; the inventory of Caofeidian Port is 0 million tons; the inventory of Fangchenggang is 4 million tons, unchanged month - on - month. As of September 5th, the total manganese ore inventory is 440.48 million tons, up 0.1 million tons month - on - month [5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend intensity of silicomanganese is 1, indicating a moderately strong trend [4].
棕榈油:基本面驱动不足,防范原油及宏观回调风险,豆油:等待南美播种季,震荡调整
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:26
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has insufficient fundamental drivers, and risks of crude oil and macro - economic pullbacks should be guarded against [1] - Soybean oil is waiting for the South American sowing season and is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 9,408 yuan/ton with a 0.43% increase, and (night session) 9,440 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,456 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase, and (night session) 8,416 yuan/ton with a - 0.47% change; rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,950 yuan/ton with a 1.04% increase, and (night session) 9,737 yuan/ton with a - 2.14% change. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 51.20 cents/pound with a - 1.41% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 10 to 3 lots, and open interest decreased by 1 to 1,225 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 8 to 110 lots, and open interest decreased by 103 to 2,988 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 42 to 50 lots, and open interest remained unchanged at 5,121 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,380 yuan/ton with a 60 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,730 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 9,790 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,105 dollars/ton with no change [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 28 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 274 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 160 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 292 yuan/ton; between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,076 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 118 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 6 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 132 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - The seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in August increased by 22,000, lower than the market expectation of 75,000. The non - farm payrolls in June were revised down from 14,000 to - 13,000, and in July were revised up from 73,000 to 79,000. After the revision, the total non - farm payrolls in June and July were 21,000 lower than before [2][3] - OPEC+ representatives said that OPEC+ in principle agreed to increase production again in October, with an expected increase of about 137,000 barrels per day, starting to gradually cancel the next layer of 1.66 million barrels per day of production cuts [3] - The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation period for imported rapeseed from Canada until March 9, 2026 [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [4]
焦煤期货主力合约涨超3%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-09-05 06:13
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures, with polysilicon contracts rising over 5% and coking coal contracts increasing by more than 3% [1]
国内期货主力合约多数上涨 多晶硅涨超5%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-05 05:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the domestic futures market saw a majority of the main contracts rise, with polysilicon increasing by over 5% [1] - Other commodities such as焦煤 (coking coal),橡胶 (rubber), 丁二烯橡胶 (butadiene rubber), and 20号胶 (No. 20 rubber) also experienced gains of over 2% [1] - In contrast, commodities like沥青 (asphalt),低硫燃料油 (low sulfur fuel oil),生猪 (live pigs), and不锈钢 (stainless steel) faced declines of over 1% [1]
铝:区间震荡,氧化铝:偏弱运行,铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:35
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Weak operation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, inventories, and corporate profitability [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum and aluminum alloy are neutral, while that of alumina is weak [3]. Directory Summaries Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,605, down 105 from the previous trading day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,590, down 24. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,980, down 12. The trading volume and open interest showed significant changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,215, down 70. The trading volume and open interest also changed [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,600 tons. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,990.62, with a slight decline [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,188, down 16. The alumina prices at ports and from overseas also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The ADC12 theoretical profit was 373, and the prices of related products and the inventory of three regions changed [1]. Other Information - The US ISM services PMI expansion speed reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and high prices. The index in August was 52, higher than the expected 51 [3].
黄金:情绪降温,白银:震荡调整
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the sentiment for gold is cooling, and silver is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The trend strength for both gold and silver is neutral, with a value of 0 [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 closed at 814.88 with a daily increase of 1.31% and a night - session close of 821.68 with a 1.40% increase; Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3619.70 with a 0.56% increase [2]. - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9820 with a - 0.04% decrease and a night - session close of 9918.00 with a 1.34% increase; Comex Silver 2510 closed at 41.810 with a 0.19% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: - Gold: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 contract against 2512 contract was 265,502, an increase of 66,450 from the previous day; the position was 142,330, an increase of 3,706 [2]. - Silver: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 627,101, an increase of 79,159 from the previous day; the position was 270,592, a decrease of 12,126 [2]. - **ETF and Inventory Data**: - ETF: SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 984.26, a decrease of 6 from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Gold inventory was 40,251 kg, an increase of 60 kg from the previous day; Shanghai Silver inventory was 1,227,039 kg, an increase of 11,811 kg [2]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Cost Data**: - Gold: The spread between Gold T + D and AU251 was - 4.91, unchanged from the previous day; the cost of buying December Shanghai Gold and selling June Shanghai Gold for inter - period arbitrage decreased by 0.87 to 4.77 [2]. - Silver: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 was 24, an increase of 1 from the previous day; the cost of buying December Shanghai Silver and selling June Shanghai Silver for inter - period arbitrage decreased by 11.3 to 73.41 [2]. - **Exchange Rate Data**: - The US dollar index was 98.16, a decrease of 0.16%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 7.15, a decrease of 0.03% [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US economic data shows mixed signals: The ISM services index expansion speed reached a six - month high, but employment was weak; ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly to 54,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 237,000, the highest since June; the trade deficit widened to a four - month high due to a surge in imports [2][5]. - Fed's stance: The Fed's third - in - command said that gradual interest rate cuts were appropriate, while a voting member for next year reiterated that they did not support a rate cut in September [5]. - Other news: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed governor Cook; Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing a maximum 15% tariff on most Japanese products; Nasdaq tightened regulations on cryptocurrency concept stocks and small - cap stocks [5]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength for gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].
白糖数据日报-20250903
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 07:07
Group 1: Core View - The supply is diverse during the new and old crop season, and the competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies. It is expected to maintain a range-bound trend [4]. - If Brazil's production exceeds expectations or India relaxes exports, raw sugar may test the previous low again [4]. Group 2: Price Data Domestic Price Data - In the domestic market, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan is 5850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Dali, Yunnan is 5720 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong is 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - The futures price of SR09 is 5611 yuan, down 12 yuan; SR01 is 5599 yuan, down 10 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 12, down 2 [4]. International Price Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.1564, up 0.0075; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.34, unchanged; the price of the London white sugar main contract is 573, up 3; the price of the Brent crude oil main contract is 68.16, unchanged [4].
沥青早报-20250903
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 06:50
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [3] Group 2: Futures Contract Data - **Prices**: On September 2, BU主力合约 was at 3551, up 11 from the previous day and 39 from the previous week; BU06 was at 3457, up 27 daily and 85 weekly; BU09 was at 3543, down 4 daily and 2 weekly; BU12 was at 3492, up 26 daily and 60 weekly; BU03 was at 3468, up 38 daily and 74 weekly [4] - **Volume and Open Interest**: On September 2, the trading volume was 349,892, up 12,718 from the previous day and 92,337 from the previous week; the open interest was 491,894, up 35,556 daily and 80,407 weekly [4] - **Combined Positions**: On September 2, the combined positions were 29,790, unchanged from the previous day and down 1,150 from the previous week [4] Group 3: Spot Market Data - **Market Prices**: On September 2, the Shandong market price was 3,540, up 30 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the East China market price was 3,700, up 10 daily and 50 weekly; the South China market price was 3,530, up 10 daily and 50 weekly; the North China market price was 3,650, up 10 daily and unchanged weekly; the Northeast market price was 3,870, unchanged daily and down 10 weekly [4] - **Enterprise Prices**: On September 2, Jingbo (Haiyun) was at 3,670, up 10 from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week; Xinhai (Xin Bohai) was at 3,650, up 10 daily and unchanged weekly [4] - **Regional Price Differences**: On September 2, Shandong - East China was -160, up 30 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week; Shandong - Northeast was -330, up 30 daily and 30 weekly; East China - South China was 170, down 10 daily and 70 weekly [4] Group 4: Basis and Calendar Spread Data - **Basis**: On September 2, the Shandong basis was -11, up 19 from the previous day and down 19 from the previous week; the East China basis was 149, down 11 daily and 20 weekly; the South China basis was -21, down 1 daily and up 11 weekly [4] - **Calendar Spreads**: On September 2, 03 - 06 was 11, up 11 from the previous day and down 11 from the previous week; 06 - 09 was -86, up 31 daily and 87 weekly; 09 - 12 was 51, down 30 daily and 62 weekly; 12 - 03 was 24, down 12 daily and 14 weekly; the first - second contract spread was 8, down 10 daily and 21 weekly [4] Group 5: Crack Spread and Profit Data - **Crack Spreads**: On September 2, the asphalt - Brent crack spread was -8, up 28 from the previous day and down 11 from the previous week [4] - **Profits**: On September 2, the asphalt - Ma Rui profit was -75, up 25 from the previous day and down 11 from the previous week; the ordinary refinery's comprehensive profit was 361, up 21 daily and down 55 weekly; the Ma Rui - type refinery's comprehensive profit was 656, up 25 daily and down 34 weekly; the import profit (South Korea - East China) was -52, up 75 daily and 74 weekly; the import profit (Singapore - South China) was -919, up 86 daily and 141 weekly [4] Group 6: Related Price Data - **Crude Oil**: On September 2, Brent crude oil was at 68.2, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.9 from the previous week [4] - **Refined Products**: On September 2, the Shandong market price of gasoline was 7,525, up 8 from the previous day and down 93 from the previous week; the Shandong market price of diesel was 6,441, up 52 daily and down 35 weekly; the Shandong market price of residual oil was 3,252, down 25 daily and 110 weekly [4]
短纤:震荡整理,多PF空PR,瓶片:震荡整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 12:56
Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber is expected to move in a range, with a strategy of going long on PF and short on PR recommended. Bottle chips are also expected to move in a range [1]. - Short - fiber futures fluctuate with raw materials, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 40%. Bottle chip factory quotes are mostly stable, and the market trading atmosphere is light [1][2]. 3) Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber 2509 remained at 6380, short - fiber 2510 decreased by 14 to 6486, and short - fiber 2511 decreased by 44 to 6468. The spread PF09 - 10 increased by 14 to - 106, PF10 - 11 increased by 30 to 18. The short - fiber main contract's open interest increased by 32556 to 171800, and the trading volume decreased by 18789 to 138898. The short - fiber sales - to - production ratio decreased by 8% to 40%, and the East China spot price remained at 6535 [1]. - **Bottle chips**: The price of bottle chips 2509 decreased by 18 to 5818, bottle chips 2510 decreased by 20 to 5952, and bottle chips 2511 decreased by 6 to 5950. The spread PR09 - 10 increased by 2 to - 134, PR10 - 11 decreased by 14 to 2. The bottle chip main contract's open interest increased by 761 to 32115, and the trading volume decreased by 10121 to 50362. The East China spot price increased by 30 to 5890, and the South China spot price remained at 5960 [1]. Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber futures fluctuate with raw materials. Factory quotes are stable, and traders offer discounts. Downstream demand is based on orders, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 40% as of 3:00 pm [1]. - **Bottle chips**: Upstream polyester raw material futures decline slightly. Factory quotes are mostly stable, and the trading atmosphere is light. Orders from September to November are mostly traded at 5880 - 5920 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle chips is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [3].