商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 11 日 【现货消息】 PP：现货上涨，成交清淡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | PP 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2509 | 7112 | 0.79% | 219,392 | 123 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 09合约基差 | -92 | | -58 | | | | 09-01合约价差 | 2 3 | | 4 4 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 华北 | 7050 - | 7150 | 7000 - 7100 | | | | 华东 | 7020 - | 7180 | 7020 - 7150 | | | | 华南 | 7050 - | 7220 | 7040 - 7200 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯 ...

2025年07月11日 星期五 商品期货早班车 单击此处输入文字。 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | 2508 | 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.90%，收于 | 20700 | 元/吨，国内 | 0-3 | 305 | 元/吨， | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 | 月差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME | 价格 | 2611 | 美元/吨。 | 1%。 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，周度运行产能稳定。需求方面，周度铝材开工率下降 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观不确定性增强，下游消费淡季氛围浓厚，铝材开工率持续下降，铝锭库存持续累库，对价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃盘面回升，提振纯碱市场情绪。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1194元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1231元/吨，基差为-37元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.34万吨，较前一周增加2.98%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货78625，基差25，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：7月10日铜库存增975至108100吨，上期所铜库存较上周增3039吨至84589吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，美国提50%铜关 税，行情波动加剧. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 每日汇总 现货 地方 中间 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货跟随成本端震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，日内伴随个别主流供应商出货及聚酯大厂减产消息， 现货基差走弱，贸易商商谈为主，零星聚酯工厂递盘，7月货在09+0~20有成交，个别略低，价格商谈区间在4720~4750附近。 今日主流现货基差在09+7。中性 2、基差：现货4735，09合约基差-7，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.95天，环比减少0.14天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：从基本面来看，7月检修不多，另 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 11 日 对二甲苯：单边震荡市 PTA：关注长丝工厂减产情况，月差反套，多 MEG 空 PTA MEG：低库存，单边震荡市，月差逢低正套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6782 | 4742 | 4325 | 6440 | 522.5 | | 涨跌 | 6724 | 24 | 42 | -88 | 2.8 | | 涨跌幅 | 58 | 0.51% | 0.98% | -1.35% | 0.54% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | 昨日收盘价 | 64 | 12 | -33 | 102 | 10.2 | | 前日收盘价 | 74 | 28 | -29 | 110 | 8.1 | | 涨跌 | -10 | -16 | -4 | -8 | 2.1 | | 现货 ...

2025 年 7 月 11 日 沥青：随油震荡，小幅累库 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,650 | 0.83% | 3,700 | 1.37% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,660 | 0.36% | 3,646 | -0.38% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 34 | (8) | 1,119 | 0 | | | BU2508 | 手 | 1,868 | (2,106) | 14,639 | (385) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 82300 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 | | | ...

WTI原油期货突破67美元/桶，日内涨0.65%。 WTI原油 ...

Report Overview - Date: July 11, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Macro sentiment drives up prices, but limited by fundamentals [2] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of weather speculation on US soybeans, lacking driving force [2] - **Soybean Meal**: Waiting for USDA report, with rebound and oscillation [2] - **Soybean**: Stable spot prices, oscillating futures prices [2] - **Corn**: Oscillating adjustment [2] - **Cotton**: Tight old - crop inventory expectations continue to support futures prices [2] - **Eggs**: Peak season approaching, focus on expectation differences [2] - **Hogs**: Weakening spot sentiment, divergence between futures and spot [2] - **Peanuts**: Support at the lower level [2] Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures prices showed different changes, with palm oil closing at 8,638 yuan/ton (down 0.46% during the day) and soybean oil at 7,944 yuan/ton (up 0.30% during the day). Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 30 yuan/ton, while soybean oil in Guangdong remained unchanged [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysian palm oil export data from different institutions showed mixed trends. About 9% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought as of July 8. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to reach 1.694879 billion tons, a 14.7% year - on - year increase [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak downward trend [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean futures prices decreased slightly, while DCE soybean meal futures prices increased. Spot prices of soybean meal in Shandong were in the range of 2800 - 2880 yuan/ton, with some price adjustments [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 10, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to good export sales and short - covering. Analysts expect the US government to raise the ending inventory forecast of US soybeans in 2024/25 and 2025/26 [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [16] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures prices showed minor fluctuations. Important spot prices such as in Jinzhou and Guangdong Shekou remained stable. Trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices decreased, while Guangdong Shekou prices remained flat. Corn prices in Northeast and North China mostly declined [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: Zhengzhou cotton and ICE US cotton futures prices had small changes. Spot prices of cotton in different regions increased slightly. Trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the cotton yarn market had insufficient orders. ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly, waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [28] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures prices decreased. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. Feed prices and related livestock prices also had certain changes [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [31] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with a decline in Henan. Futures prices of different contracts increased. Trading volume and open interest of some contracts increased [34]. - **Market Logic**: The futures market has entered the expectation trading stage. The expected state reserve purchase has driven the formation of a policy bottom sentiment. Attention should be paid to the spot performance in the future. The short - term support and pressure levels of the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [35] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Spot prices of peanuts in different regions had some adjustments. Futures prices of some contracts increased. Trading volume and open interest of some contracts decreased [38]. - **Spot Market Focus**: Peanut production areas had low inventory and limited trading volume, with prices generally stable or slightly weak [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [40]

2025年07月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本预期或有抬升，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 11 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 763. 5 | 27.0 | ...