周四(6月12日)亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅上涨，现报3373美元/盎司附近。周三(6月11日)，现货黄金价格大幅上涨，分析师指出，美国CPI全线不及 预期，这打击美元和美债收益率走势，此外，中东紧张局势升温，这引发黄金的避险买盘。 现货黄金周三收盘大涨32.48美元，涨幅近1%，报3354.97美元/盎司。 由于美国最新的通胀报告显示价格正在降温，投资者加大对美联储将在9月份重启宽松周期的押注，周三黄金价格上升近1%，并突破3350美元/盎 司。 美元疲软支撑金价。追踪美元对一篮子货币价值的美元指数(DXY)下跌0.44%，至98.61，创下四天低点。 美国国债收益率重挫，这也利好金价走势。美国10年期国债收益率下降5个基点，至4.42%。美国实际收益率下降5个基点至2.13%，推动了黄金的 上涨。 美国CPI全线不及预期 市场当前聚焦于美联储6月17-18日的会议以及周四即将公布的PPI数据。PPI数据将为生产端的通胀压力提供更多信息，可能进一步影响市场对美 联储降息时点的预期。特朗普甚至公开呼吁美联储降息一个百分点，显示出其对宽松货币政策的强烈期待。如果PPI数据继续显示通胀压力温和， 降息预期可能进一步巩 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices continue to rise, with WTI crude reaching $69.29 per barrel after a 4.9% increase, marking the largest single-day gain since October of the previous year [1] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to escalating security risks in the Middle East, prompting the U.S. to order partial evacuation of personnel from its embassy in Baghdad [1] - Market speculation about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East has intensified following threats from Iran to attack U.S. military bases if nuclear negotiations fail [1] Group 2 - The current surge in oil prices breaks the narrow trading range observed over the past month, highlighting the market's sensitivity to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which accounts for one-third of global crude oil production [3] - Despite the recent price increase, oil prices are down approximately 4% year-to-date due to concerns over trade wars affecting demand and the potential return of Iranian oil to the market [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports indicate significant uncertainty in the oil market, forecasting a supply surplus of 800,000 barrels per day, the largest since 2025 predictions began, while also noting that U.S. crude production is unlikely to exceed last December's levels [3]

当地时间6日，意大利国家统计局发布2025至2026年经济前景展望，预计2025年该国经济增长0.6%， 2026年增长0.8%。报告称，美国关税政策将对全球贸易和经济增长前景产生负面影响。意大利国家统 计局预测，到2025年下半年，美国关税不确定性将有所缓解，但当前依然对企业信心构成影响。2025年 全球经济预计将出现放缓，随后在下一年趋于基本稳定，主要原因是美国贸易政策持续变化带来的不确 定性，以及严重的地缘政治紧张局势。(央视新闻) ...

今年以来黄金表现强劲，出乎不少机构的预料，现货黄金盘中一度触及3499.45美元/吨，年内涨幅逼近30%。华尔街虽然连续"撕报告"，但是仍然难赶上黄 金的上涨幅度。 道富环球投资管理对金价最新的中期走势持乐观态度，认为在多种策略性因素及结构性因素推动下，金价前景仍然乐观。该行预期今年金价下限将会到更高 水平，由原本的每盎司2000美元，上升至3000美元。今年余下时间，黄金市场将过渡到3000美元以上的波动区间，预期未来12至24个月内，可测试4000至 5000美元。 道富环球指出，金价上行受五大主题支撑，分别是（1）黄金ETF流入金额潜在上升；（2）中国买入黄金的消费者增加；（3）央行对黄金需求保持强劲； （4）替代性货币需求及全球债务上升，支持金价上涨；（5）美联储仍会减息。 此外，一些策略性因素如贸易政策的不确定性、经济衰退风险也在推动金价。 21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 广州报道黄金盘中跳水，盘中已经跌破3400美元/盎司。 道富环球表示，基准情境下，虽然包括中美在内的高关税税率已下降，但贸易政策的不确定性，加上地缘政治紧张局势仍会在今年余下时间占主导地位，同 时通胀压力仍在，限制美联储减息空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chicago wheat prices have risen for the second consecutive day due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with concerns regarding weather conditions in major producing countries [1] Group 1 - The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, with Ukraine launching significant attacks against Russia over the weekend [1] - The escalation of hostilities has diminished hopes for a ceasefire, which poses a threat to the smooth supply of grain in the Black Sea region [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices increased by over 1% due to a decline in the dollar and falling U.S. yields, with trading prices reaching $3,338 [1] - The geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan have contributed to the high prices of gold bars, as the conflict escalates [2] - The dollar index fell by 0.32% to 100.31 after breaking the key level of 100.00, creating a favorable environment for gold [2] Group 2 - The recent rebound in gold prices has halted as they fell below $3,400, with the next key resistance level at $3,350 [3] - If gold closes below $3,300, it may further decline, potentially exposing the cycle low of $3,202 from May 1 [3]

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of India projects that the Indian economy is expected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy in the fiscal year 2025-26 [1] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and sluggish global demand continue to pose risks to economic growth [1] Economic Outlook - The Indian economy is anticipated to grow at a faster rate compared to other major economies [1] - The growth forecast is influenced by external factors such as geopolitical issues and global market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in international gold prices, driven by rising concerns over U.S. fiscal stability and escalating geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Fiscal Concerns - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" due to worries over a $36 trillion debt, indicating a failure of past administrations to address large fiscal deficits and rising interest costs [3]. - The total U.S. public debt has surged from approximately $4.5 trillion in 2007 to a historical high today, with the debt-to-GDP ratio increasing from about 35% to 100% [3]. - The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose above 5%, which historically impacts borrowing rates for households and businesses, reflecting declining investor confidence in U.S. long-term assets [3][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical issues, such as stalled negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and increased military actions in the Middle East, have further boosted gold prices as investors seek safety [5][8]. - The U.S. trade situation is also tense, with President Trump threatening to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, contributing to a decline in the dollar index [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market is closely monitoring upcoming discussions in the Senate regarding the spending bill, with potential implications for U.S. debt concerns and the dollar's recovery [8]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates, with a potential rate cut expected in July, could further influence gold prices, especially if economic indicators show volatility [7][8]. - Short-term bullish sentiment in gold is supported by both momentum traders and long-term investors seeking to hedge against policy uncertainties, creating favorable conditions for a rebound towards historical highs [8].

Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices have surged nearly 6% this week, reaching a near two-week high, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns over U.S. fiscal issues and geopolitical tensions [1] - The COMEX gold futures for May delivery rose by 2.17%, closing at $3363.60 per ounce [1] - As gold approaches the $3400 mark, it is expected to respond positively to headlines regarding U.S. fiscal challenges, trade relations, and geopolitical events, potentially aiming for historical highs [1] Group 2: U.S. Fiscal Concerns - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" due to concerns over a $36 trillion debt, highlighting the failure of past administrations to address significant fiscal deficits [2] - The U.S. national debt has escalated from $4.5 trillion in 2007 to a historic high today, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from approximately 35% to 100% [2] - Rising bond yields, particularly the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, indicate growing investor concerns about the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt [2][3] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including stalled negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, have further boosted gold prices [4] - The U.S. trade situation is also tense, with President Trump threatening to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, which has contributed to a decline in the dollar index [4][5] Group 4: Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - The market currently anticipates a 27% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, with potential adjustments depending on economic data fluctuations [6] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance suggests that any rate cuts will be contingent on the impact of tariffs and overall economic conditions, which could benefit gold prices [6] - The ongoing debt issues in the U.S. are expected to hinder the dollar's recovery, especially if the Senate approves spending bills without significant changes [6] Group 5: Investment Sentiment - Short-term bullish sentiment in gold is driven by momentum traders and long-term investors seeking to hedge against policy uncertainties [7] - The combination of tactical and strategic buying is likely to create conditions for a sustained rebound in gold prices, potentially targeting the historical high of $3500 [7]

短期期货交易商获利回吐导致金价温和下跌。但是，由于全球债券市场变得不稳定，黄金避险的基本基 调看涨。 21日举行的美国20年期国债拍卖未受到投资者的欢迎，令市场紧张不安。21日美国债券拍卖后，全球债 券市场也震动不已。 新华财经纽约5月22日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年6月黄金期价22 日下跌0.56%，收于每盎司3295.10美元。 金价花五年时间站上了2000美元，但是仅用几周时间就站上了3000美元。市场分析人士认为，金价本次 上涨背后有许多不同的驱动力。除了传统的实际收益率，还加上了经济衰退风险、关税、贸易战、以及 市场对地缘政治紧张局势的担忧。 尽管过去十二个月增长了40%，市场分析人士认为金价还有增长空间。 与此同时，渣打银行预计金价未来7个月将下跌约10%。 技术层面，黄金期货多头近期已具有整体的技术优势。 当天7月交割的白银期货价格下跌1.39%，收于每盎司33.18美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国国债市场也不喜欢特朗普政府的新税收和支出法案。国会预算办公室表示，该法案将使2026年至 2034年间美国预算赤字增加3.8万亿美元。 美国劳工部22日公布的数 ...