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Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the high-sulfur crack fluctuated, the 380 near-end ran strongly, and the basis fluctuated. The low-sulfur crack continued to strengthen, the monthly spread strengthened, and the basis fluctuated. Singapore's onshore inventory decreased significantly, ARA's decreased slightly, and the US residual oil inventory increased significantly. Singapore's high-sulfur floating storage increased significantly, with overall inventory accumulation, while the Middle East's floating storage decreased, and Saudi Arabia's exports increased significantly. Fujairah's floating storage and Europe's floating storage increased. Recently, the low-sulfur market has strengthened marginally, and attention should be paid to the subsequent realization of supply increments. The high-sulfur market fluctuates at a high level, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China, the refinery feed demand for fuel oil has declined significantly, and the bunker fuel demand is expected to be weaker year-on-year due to tariff impacts. In the future, attention should be paid to the power generation demand and procurement demand, as well as the medium-term short allocation opportunity for the high-sulfur crack [6][7] Group 2: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed from 385.77 to 406.15, a decrease of 2.28; Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed from 431.14 to 451.49, a decrease of 0.76; Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 changed from -1.51 to -1.58, a decrease of 0.19; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed from 571.02 to 606.04, an increase of 3.48; Rotterdam VLSFO-G M1 changed from -139.88 to -154.55, a decrease of 4.24; LGO-Brent M1 changed from 16.22 to 17.57, an increase of 0.91; Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 changed from 45.37 to 45.34, an increase of 1.52 [4] Group 3: Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 changed from 402.45 to 433.27; Singapore 180cst M1 changed from 412.95 to 442.48; Singapore VLSFO M1 changed from 467.39 to 498.06; Singapore GO M1 changed from 76.00 to 81.58; Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 changed from 2.28 to 2.53; Singapore VLSFO-GO M1 changed from -95.01 to -105.63 [4] Group 4: Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed from 402.67 to 432.78, an increase of 4.14; the FOB VLSFO price changed from 481.67 to 511.73, an increase of 16.22; the 380 basis changed from -1.30 to -1.45, a decrease of 2.45; the high-sulfur domestic and foreign price difference changed from 7.6 to 7.9, a decrease of 0.3; the low-sulfur domestic and foreign price difference changed from 11.9 to 17.0, an increase of 0.7 [5] Group 5: Domestic FU Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of FU 01 changed from 2584 to 2755, an increase of 46; FU 05 changed from 2566 to 2697, an increase of 32; FU 09 changed from 2707 to 2893, an increase of 54; FU 01 - 05 changed from 18 to 58, an increase of 14; FU 05 - 09 changed from -141 to -196, a decrease of 22; FU 09 - 01 changed from 123 to 138, an increase of 8 [5] Group 6: Domestic LU Data - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the prices of LU 01 changed from 3237 to 3451, an increase of 76; LU 05 changed from 3219 to 3401, an increase of 141; LU 09 changed from 3298 to 3521, an increase of 85; LU 01 - 05 changed from 18 to 50, a decrease of 65; LU 05 - 09 changed from -79 to -120, an increase of 56; LU 09 - 01 changed from 61 to 70, an increase of 9 [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are weak, and the short - term PG futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - From May 8 - 14, 2025, the daily changes in prices were as follows: domestic civil gas in Shandong decreased by 30 to 4670, in East China remained stable at 4931, and in South China decreased by 20 to 5000; imported gas in East China decreased by 24 to 5066, and in South China remained stable at 5080; ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4690. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4670. The PG futures price fluctuated, the basis of the 06 contract weakened to 314, and the 06 - 07 spread weakened to 86. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1] Market Conditions Last Week - The domestic civil gas market was weak last week. Prices in South China rose and then fell; those in East China and Shandong fluctuated weakly; the center of ether - post carbon four moved down significantly; the price of the cheapest deliverable (Shandong LPG) was 4800 yuan/ton. The futures price center moved down slightly; the 06 basis fluctuated; the 06 - 07 spread strengthened [1] Fundamental Data - The LPG commodity volume was 485,500 tons (-1.06%), and the external supply is expected to be stable in the next three weeks; the PDH operating rate decreased to 59.59% (-2.76%) due to high import costs and poor downstream demand. The alkylation operating rate remained flat, production margins turned profitable, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly. MTBE production decreased, and the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification were poor [1] External Market Conditions - CP and FEI rose slightly, while MB remained flat. The internal - external price spread fluctuated, FEI - MB rose slightly, and FEI - CP and CP - MB changed little. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East rose slightly. US C3 inventories were basically flat, exports increased, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed. OPEC+ reduced the production cut, and PG supply is expected to increase. The CP official price is expected to fall, and the propane - butane spread is expected to widen [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/14 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 2025/05/08 225 1089 116753 19540 -252.05 750.12 102.0 116.0 45.82 194275 84025 2025/05/09 80 829 80705 19165 160.52 955.79 103.0 117.0 49.19 191775 82625 2025/05/12 -25 899 80705 20084 -381.79 644.55 101.0 117.0 23.87 190750 82200 2025/05/13 -10 799 80705 29157 -370.77 284.15 101.0 117.0 19.17 189650 81275 变化 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market are weak, and the short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Daily Changes - On Tuesday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong dropped by 20 to 4700, in East China by 2 to 4931, and remained stable in South China at 5020; for imported gas, prices in East China dropped by 15 to 5090, and in South China by 10 to 5080; ether - post carbon four dropped by 20 to 4690, with the lowest price being Shandong civil gas at 4700. Under the weak fundamental situation, the PG futures market fluctuated downward, the basis of the 06 contract strengthened to 405, and the 06 - 07 spread remained basically flat at 98. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly Situation - Last week, the domestic civil gas market was weak. Prices in South China rose and then fell; those in East China and Shandong fluctuated weakly; the center of ether - post carbon four shifted down significantly; the price of the cheapest deliverable (Shandong LPG) was 4800 yuan/ton. The futures market center moved down slightly; the 06 basis fluctuated; the 06 - 07 spread strengthened. Fundamentally, high arrivals led to obvious port inventory accumulation; post - holiday downstream restocking was average, and factory inventories increased slightly. The LPG commodity volume was 485,500 tons (-1.06%), and the outward supply is expected to be stable in the next three weeks; the PDH operating rate decreased to 59.59% (-2.76%) due to high import costs and poor downstream demand. The alkylation operating rate remained flat, production margins turned profitable, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly. MTBE production decreased, and the profits of gas - separation etherification and isomerization etherification were poor [1] External Market - CP and FEI rose slightly, while MB remained flat. The internal - external price spread fluctuated, FEI - MB rose slightly, and FEI - CP and CP - MB changed little. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East rose slightly. US C3 inventory was basically flat, exports increased, and the arbitrage window to the Far East closed. OPEC+ reduced the production cut, and PG supply is expected to increase. The CP official price is expected to fall, and the propane - butane spread is expected to widen [1]

Group 1 - The basis for the CSI 300 IF2505 contract is at a discount of 0.21, while the SSE 50 IH2505 contract is at a premium of 2.22, the CSI 500 IC2505 contract is at a premium of 0.88, and the CSI 1000 IM2505 contract is at a discount of 3.77 [1] - The month difference for the CSI 300 IF2505-2506 is 35.6, for the SSE 50 IH2505-2506 is 18.4, for the CSI 500 IC2505-2506 is 102.2, and for the CSI 1000 IM2505-2506 is 113.6 [1]

1.基差：沪深300 IF2505合约贴水4.26，上证50 IH2505合约升水0.54，中证500 IC2505合约贴水14.47， 中证1000 IM2505合约贴水23.21； 5月13日股指期货套利监测日报 金十期货5月13日讯， 2.月差：沪深300IF2505-2506价差为41.0，上证50IH2505-2506价差为20.4，中证500IC2505-2506价差为 113.0，中证1000IM2505-2506价差为130.8。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of the LPG market are weak, and the short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes (May 1 - 2, 2025) - In the civil gas market, prices in Shandong decreased by 80 to 4700, in East China by 5 to 4933, and in South China by 70 to 5020. Imported gas prices in East China dropped by 31 to 5105, and in South China by 20 to 5090. The price of ether - post carbon four decreased by 90 to 4710. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4700. The PG futures market was weak, with the basis of the 06 contract at 341 and the 06 - 07 spread slightly weakening to 97. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1] Weekly Changes - The domestic civil gas market was weak last week. Prices in South China rose and then fell, those in East China and Shandong fluctuated weakly, and the center of ether - post carbon four prices moved down significantly. The price of the cheapest deliverable (Shandong LPG) was 4800 yuan/ton. The futures market center moved down slightly, the 06 basis fluctuated, and the 06 - 07 spread strengthened [1] - Fundamentally, high arrivals led to significant port inventory accumulation. After the holiday, downstream replenishment was average, and factory inventories increased slightly. The LPG commodity volume was 48.55 tons (-1.06%), and external supply is expected to be stable in the next three weeks. The PDH operating rate decreased to 59.59% (-2.76%) due to high import costs and poor downstream demand. The alkylation operating rate remained flat, production margins turned profitable, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly. MTBE production decreased, and the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification were poor [1] - In the international market, CP and FEI rose slightly, while MB remained flat. The internal - external price spread fluctuated, with FEI - MB rising slightly and FEI - CP, CP - MB changing little. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East rose slightly. US C3 inventories were basically flat, exports increased, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed. OPEC+ reduced production cuts, and PG supply is expected to increase. CP official prices are expected to fall, and the propane - butane spread is expected to widen [1]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/13 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/06 285 1063 116753 24922 -38.41 794.66 100.0 115.0 21.75 195625 86950 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 2025/05/08 225 1089 116753 19540 -252.05 750.12 102.0 116.0 45.82 194275 84025 2025/05/09 80 829 80705 19165 160.52 955.79 103.0 117.0 49.19 191775 82625 2025/05/12 -25 899 80705 20084 - 644.55 101.0 117.0 23.87 190750 82200 变化 -105 ...