交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为81.42%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量33.7665万吨，环比增加2.76%,乙烯法企业产 量14.061万吨，环比增加6.27%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为47.76%，环比减少1.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38.91%，环比减少0.52个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.43%，环比增加.3个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃 供给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1170元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1255元/吨，基差为-85元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： | 日盘 | 主力合约收盘价 | 重质纯碱：沙 ...

工业硅期货早报 2025年10月9日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 利多：成本上行支撑，厂家停减产计划。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | 3万吨 | 环比有所增加1 | 09% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为8 | 6万吨 | 环比增长7 | 需求有所抬升 | 50% | ， | ， | . | . | . ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | 供给端来看 | 根据隆众 | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 | 3万吨 | 环比降幅5 | 同比 | 1% | ， | ， | ， | , | . | . | 增幅17 | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为42 | 环比增加5 | 632个百分点 | 全国样 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market shows a bearish trend fundamentally, with negative factors such as overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels, slow inventory consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [5][11][13]. - The supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4867 - 4925 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - On September 29, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -116 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [11]. - Factory inventory was 31.8237 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous period, and social inventory was 53.47 tons, a 0.01% increase from the previous period. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.3 days, a 2.91% increase from the previous period, which is bearish [11]. - The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, which is neutral [11]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [11]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% increase from the previous month. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.97%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 337,665 tons, a 2.76% increase from the previous period, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 140,610 tons, a 6.27% increase from the previous period. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 47.76%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 38.91%, a 0.52 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.43%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 63.93%, a 12.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 80.31%, a 0.71 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was -783.9115 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 19.20% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was -645.3653 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 1.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2329.25 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, the cost of the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is weakening [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, inventory, operating rates, and profits of different types of PVC products and enterprises [17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [20][23][26]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals Calcium Carbide Method - Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [29][32][34][35]. Supply - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production [40][41][43]. Demand - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [45][47][49][55][58]. Inventory - Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [60]. Ethylene Method - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences in the ethylene method [62]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025 [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 3.50%. It is expected that next week, the supply side's production schedule will increase, the demand recovery will be at a low level, and the cost support will rise. The disk is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 11 - contract also declined this week, with a weekly decline of 2.75%. It is predicted that the supply - side production schedule will decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable, and the disk is expected to have a neutral sideways adjustment [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 93,000 tons, a 1.09% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,310 tons, remaining unchanged. The expected monthly start - up rate is 59.19%, a 3.32 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 86,000 tons, a 7.50% increase. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory is 226,000 tons; in the organic silicon sector, the inventory is 73,200 tons, and the production profit is - 708 yuan/ton; in the aluminum alloy sector, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 72,000 tons [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3,020 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 543,000 tons, remaining unchanged; the sample enterprise inventory is 162,500 tons, a 7.11% decrease; the main port inventory is 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,100 tons, a 0.32% increase. The predicted production schedule for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from last month [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW, a 1.00% decrease; the battery cell production is in a loss state, and the component production is profitable. The production schedules for September of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are expected to increase [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,400 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 226,000 tons, a 10.78% increase, at a historically high level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [14][15]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises, as well as the registered warehouse receipt volume [18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises, the monthly production by specification, and the start - up rate trends [20][21][22]. - **Cost**: It includes the electricity price trends in main production areas, the silicon stone price trends in main production places, the graphite electrode price trends, and the price trends of some reducing agents [25]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Both the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [29][32]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc. [34][36][41]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It examines the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (in the automotive and wheel hub sectors) trends of aluminum alloy [44][47][49]. - **Polysilicon**: It studies the cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation related to polysilicon [52][55][58][61][64][67][70][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment next week [75][77]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract declined, and it is predicted to have a narrow - range sideways adjustment next week [78][79].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being respectively: short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and weak. The overall view is that it will operate weakly due to the weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly rose 0.51% to 2364 yuan/ton in the night session last Friday, but the continued rebound was blocked by the upper 20 - day moving average [5]. Market Driving Logic - Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure has led to a downward shift in the price center. After the previous continuous decline in methanol futures prices, the bearish sentiment has been released. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5]. Definition of Market Trends - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it's the previous trading day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price on the current day to calculate the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise. Oscillatory strength/weakness only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4905 - 4965. The market is affected by multiple factors, including supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and export trends [9][13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [13] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [7] 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 39.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 76.92%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 72.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7][8] 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 30.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2349.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.40%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Other Aspects - **Basis**: On September 25, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 135 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% [11] - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [11] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market shows a mixed situation with a generally bearish domestic fundamental outlook but some bullish factors. The overall supply in the domestic market exceeds demand significantly, and it is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today. The main influencing factors are the strong international prices and weak domestic demand, and the key risk lies in changes in export policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been fluctuating weakly recently. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply in the domestic urea market still significantly exceeds demand, the theoretical export profit has continued to reach new highs, but the export volume has decreased due to policy and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56, with a premium/discount ratio of 3.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 142.1 million tons (+5.1), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (+30), the Shandong spot price is 1730 (+30), the Henan spot price is 1740 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 3210 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1674 (+1), the basis is 56 (+29), the price of the UR05 contract is 1727 (+3), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (+2) [6]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 142.1 million tons (+5.1), the UR manufacturer inventory is 95.7 million tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 46.4 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2023, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown corresponding changes. For example, in 2023, the production capacity was 3893.5, the production volume was 3193.59, the net import volume was 293.13, the apparent consumption was 3486.72, and the actual consumption was 3486.69. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For coking coal, under the support of pre - holiday rigid demand replenishment, the coking coal price may continue to operate at a high level in the short term. However, due to the slowdown of downstream procurement rhythm, it is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term. The factors affecting the price include the increase in pig iron production and limited supply increment on the positive side, and the slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices on the negative side [3][5]. - For coke, the continuous strengthening of raw coking coal prices provides strong support for coke costs. The coke supply remains stable. Driven by pre - holiday stockpiling, the downstream rigid demand has increased, but the terminal consumption is still weak. It is expected that coke will remain stable in the short term. The positive factors are the increase in pig iron production and blast furnace operating rate, while the negative factors are the squeezed profit space of steel mills and the partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - The document provides the spot price quotations of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on September 25, 2025, including the prices of various coal types at different ports [10]. Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31]. Production and Utilization Rate - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].