证券代码：839979 2025年08月04日-08月08日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 沥青期货周报 3 回顾与展望 本周10合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为3658元/吨,周五收盘价为3478元/吨，周跌幅为4.92%。 供给端来看，根据隆众对96家企业跟踪，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅 3.5%,同比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.4372%，环比减少1.32个百分点，全国样本 企业出货28.03万吨，环比增加2.90%,样本企业产量为55.8万吨，环比减少3.79%,样本企业装置检修量预 估为61.6万吨，环比增加1.99%。本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看,重交 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-11） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近日产地因事故、环保及超产等原因停减产的煤矿较多，供应端减量明显。随着终端补库 节奏放缓，且中间环节部分降价出货，焦煤成交氛围有所转弱，竞拍市场流拍比例增加，成交价多涨跌 互现。不过煤矿预售订单仍在执行，厂内库存低位，支撑煤价仍多坚挺，部分高价资源小幅回落；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差-127；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦企开工率和铁水产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the refineries have increased production, which will increase supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 (operating rates) mostly lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt and road - modified asphalt开工率 are higher [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 34.7555%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.835 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.40%, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 604,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.91% [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 33.1%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.1987%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 27%, unchanged month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25% [9]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - **Other Factors**: The positive factor is the relatively high - level crude oil cost; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Bearish, as the supply pressure is high and the demand recovery is weak [8][15]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the Shandong spot price is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 232 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.343 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the in - factory inventory is 700,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.25%. All inventories are decreasing. Bullish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. Bearish [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases. Bullish [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected production schedule is likely to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4988 - 5104. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [7][8][9]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Base Spread**: On August 7th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 66 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 34534 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 26919 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.12%, and the ethylene factory inventory was 7615 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85%. The social inventory was 44800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.91%. The inventory days of production enterprises was 5.8 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.33%, all indicating a bearish situation [10]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, indicating a bearish signal [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - In July 2025, the PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 32458 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06%, while the production of ethylene enterprises was 12770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.82%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [7]. Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.169 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 77%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.25 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish [8]. Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 20.9487 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction of losses by 84.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 478.9958 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction of losses by 5.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2673.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 2.00%, higher than the historical average. The production schedule may increase [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and it is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4992 - 5110 [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Base Spread**: On August 6th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 71 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 34534 tons, a 3.28% decrease from the previous period. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 26919 tons, a 3.12% decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 7615 tons, a 3.85% decrease. Social inventory was 44800 tons, a 4.91% increase. The production enterprise's inventory - holding days were 5.8 days, a 3.33% decrease, presenting a bearish situation [10]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous month. This week, the sample enterprise's capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 32458 tons, a 4.06% decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 12770 tons, a 12.82% increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase significantly [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.05%, a 0.169 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a 0.439 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 77%, unchanged from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.82%, a 5.25 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 20.9487 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 84% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 478.9958 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 5% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2730.05 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 1.4% from the previous period, higher than the historical average. Production scheduling may increase [8]. 3. PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including price changes of different types of PVC, inter - month spreads, inventory data, downstream operating rates, profit, cost, and other information [16]. 4. PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report shows the historical data of PVC basis, spot price, and main contract closing price, helping to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [19]. 5. PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread The report shows the historical data of the main contract spreads of PVC futures, which is helpful for understanding the price differences between different contracts [25]. 6. PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: It shows the historical data of Lancoke prices, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production, which is helpful for analyzing the impact of Lancoke on the calcium carbide method of PVC production [28]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the historical data of calcium carbide prices, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production, which is helpful for analyzing the impact of calcium carbide on the calcium carbide method of PVC production [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It shows the historical data of liquid chlorine prices, production, raw salt prices, and production, which is helpful for understanding the cost factors in the calcium carbide method of PVC production [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: It shows the historical data of caustic soda prices, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory, which is helpful for analyzing the impact of caustic soda on the calcium carbide method of PVC production [35][38]. 7. PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend It shows the historical data of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rates, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC, which is helpful for analyzing the supply situation of PVC [40][41]. 8. PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It shows the historical data of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin). It also shows the historical data of real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year, which is helpful for analyzing the demand situation of PVC [43][45][47]. - For paste resin, it shows the historical data of profit, monthly production, cost, and apparent consumption [50][53]. 9. PVC Fundamental - Inventory It shows the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days, which is helpful for analyzing the inventory situation of PVC [60]. 10. PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method It shows the historical data of vinyl chloride imports, dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, ethylene method FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF), which is helpful for analyzing the ethylene - based PVC market [62]. 11. PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the monthly supply - demand data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports, and presents the monthly supply - demand trend chart of PVC [65].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-7） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：山西超产检查扰动不断，区域资源有偏紧预期。市场情绪逐步回归，下游接货谨慎，炼焦 煤涨价氛围有所降温，线上竞拍涨势趋缓，但考虑目前煤矿库存压力较小，从而挺价意愿较强，且因焦 煤期货再次偏强上涨，部分煤种报价仍在小幅上行；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1090，基差-131；现货贴水期货；偏空 每日观点 焦炭： 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 6、预期：焦炭第五轮提涨全面落地，焦企开工维持高位，钢厂铁水产量也在高位波动，焦煤刚需依然 强劲。但目前钢焦企业补库节奏有所放缓，多数以按需采 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with domestic demand recovery being sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4984 - 5100. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8][9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is not smooth [13]. - The main influencing factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, export advantages, overall supply pressure rebound, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Base Price**: On August 5th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 62 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 34534 tons, a 3.28% decrease from the previous period. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 26919 tons, a 3.12% decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 7615 tons, a 3.85% decrease. Social inventory was 44800 tons, a 4.91% increase. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.8 days, a 3.33% decrease, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Market Trend**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased, showing a bearish signal [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous month. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.84%, with no change from the previous period. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 32458 tons, a 4.06% decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 12770 tons, a 12.82% increase. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.05%, a 0.169 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a 0.439 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 77%, unchanged from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.82%, a 5.25 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand may remain weak [8]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 20.9487 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 84.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 478.9958 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 5.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2690.05 yuan/ton, with a profit increase of 0.70% from the previous period, higher than the historical average, and production scheduling may increase [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and operating rates of different production methods and regions [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Base Price Trend**: The report presents the historical trend chart of the base price of PVC futures [18]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position trends of the PVC futures main contract [22]. - **Spread Analysis**: It provides the historical trend chart of the spread of the PVC futures main contract [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production trends of Lancoke [28]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: The price, production, and monthly production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt are shown [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory trends of caustic soda are provided [35][38]. 3.5.2 Supply Trends - The report shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production, maintenance volume, and overall capacity utilization rate and production trends of PVC [40][41]. 3.5.3 Demand Trends - It presents the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of various PVC products, as well as the operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also shows the profit, production, cost, and apparent consumption of paste resin, and relevant data on real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [43][47][55]. 3.5.4 Inventory - The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the FOB spread of ethylene method and the import spread of vinyl chloride [62]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [65].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-6） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期市场观望情绪升温，影响近两日线上竞拍流拍现象增加，且部分煤种成交价格小幅下 跌，竞拍情绪稍有走弱，考虑煤矿多有预售订单待执行，焦企短期仍有一定补库需求，煤企挺价意愿较 强，产地煤矿报价多暂稳为主；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1040，基差-142；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦企经过连续五轮提涨，利润有所修复，当前开工高稳，加之终端高铁水支撑当前需求， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with domestic demand recovery being sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4925 - 5037. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [6][9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Overall bearish. In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises decreased by 4.06% month - on - month, while that of ethylene enterprises increased by 12.82% month - on - month. The downstream overall开工率 was 42.05%, a slight increase but still below the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene has increased, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6][8]. - **Basis**: On August 4, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, a neutral situation [11]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, with calcium carbide factory inventory decreasing by 3.12% and ethylene factory inventory decreasing by 3.85%. However, social inventory increased by 4.91% month - on - month, and the inventory days of production enterprises decreased by 3.33%. Overall, it is bearish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, a neutral situation [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions, a bearish situation [11]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, downstream开工率, profit, and cost showed different degrees of changes. For example, the prices of some enterprises decreased, and the profit of calcium carbide and ethylene methods showed different degrees of improvement or decline [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend of PVC from 2022 to 2025, along with the market price in East China and the closing price of the main contract [18][19]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures in July - August 2025, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the net position changes of the top 5 and 20 seats [21][22]. - **Spread Analysis**: Presents the spread trends of the main contracts from 2024 to 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24][25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the price, cost, profit,开工率, and inventory of raw materials such as blue charcoal, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from multiple years [27][30][32][34]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Shows the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 - 2025, as well as the daily and weekly production of PVC [39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC from multiple years, and also examines the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and social financing data [43][45][47][55][58]. - **Inventory**: Presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises from 2019 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads from multiple years [61][62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory [64][65].

焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-5） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：前期因环保、顶库等原因减停产的煤矿陆续复产，但复产速度偏慢。下游目前仍在补库周 期，煤矿普遍出货顺畅，部分紧张煤种价格仍有上涨预期，不过经过煤价前期的大幅上涨，下游对部分 高价煤种开始谨慎采购，线上竞拍资源涨跌互现，部分煤种价格出现回落；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1070，基差-71；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存803.8万吨，港口库存282.1万吨，独立焦企库存844.1万吨，总样本库存1930万吨， 较上周减少3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦炭第五轮提涨落地，焦企利润进一步修复，开工暂稳，虽 ...