金十数据7月8日讯，针对美国总统特朗普公布的致日本等方面的关税相关信函，8日，日本首相石破茂 称，美方公布的信息令人遗憾。此外，石破茂做出指示，继续与美方就关税进行谈判。8日，日本政府 将于首相官邸召开综合对策本部会议，以应对美国总统特朗普宣布对日本进口商品征收25%关税一事。 石破茂也将出席会议，据测其将指示相关阁僚继续就取消关税进行谈判。 日本首相：美方公布的关税信息令人遗憾 将继续进行谈判 ...

定了但没完全定 美总统特朗普再谈8月1日关税谈判截止日 智通财经7月8日电，据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月7日，美国总统特朗普在接待以色列总理内塔尼亚胡 来访的白宫晚宴上针对关税问题表示，8月1日截止日期已确定，但不是百分百确定，如果有国家提出了 不同的方案，他会对其他想法持开放态度。 ...

韩元兑美元涨0.5%，特朗普表态愿意进行关税谈判。 最新关税消息公布后，日本、韩国股市仍维持涨势。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that adhering to trading principles is crucial for success [1] - Gold prices experienced a rebound after hitting a low, with a focus on buying during dips and a target of reaching higher resistance levels [3][5] - The U.S. extended tariff negotiation deadlines, which temporarily alleviated pressure on gold prices, while central banks continued to increase their gold reserves, albeit modestly [5] Group 2 - The gold market showed signs of upward momentum, with expectations of breaking through previous high points and potential resistance levels identified [7] - The dollar is anticipated to continue its upward trend, with recommendations to maintain long positions in certain currency pairs [8] - Trading strategies included specific entry and exit points for gold and oil, highlighting the importance of strict stop-loss measures to manage risk [9][10][12]

市场消息：韩国国家安保室室长魏圣洛会见美国国务卿鲁比奥，讨论关税谈判。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. In the third quarter, it will face a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the mismatch in the production schedules of new upstream and downstream capacities [3]. - The styrene market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern. With the 3S entering the traditional off - season and the decline in downstream开工率, styrene has entered a inventory accumulation channel. Attention should be paid to the change of the near - end basis and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Fundamentals - On July 4, the main styrene contract closed up 0.59% at 7340 yuan/ton, with a basis of 290 (+22 yuan/ton). The main Brent crude oil contract closed at 67.0 dollars/barrel (-0.5 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 68.8 dollars/barrel (-0.3 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5880 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.4 million tons (-0.6 million tons), a 3.0% decrease in inventory compared to the previous period. Jiangsu port inventory was 9.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 16.2% increase in inventory compared to the previous period, and overall styrene inventory tended to accumulate [2]. - Styrene maintenance devices gradually returned, and overall supply remained stable. Currently, the weekly styrene output remained at 36.7 million tons (+0 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 80.0% (-0.1%) [2]. - The capacity utilization rates of the three major downstream products (3S) of styrene changed differently. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 55.9 (-3.84%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 65.0% (-1.0%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 52.4% (-5.0%), with the overall开工 rate declining [2]. 3.1.2. Views - **Pure Benzene**: The current pure benzene market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The supply side has fluctuations in the petroleum benzene开工率, while the hydrogenated benzene开工率 has climbed to a historical high. The demand has recovered to the level before the maintenance season in the second quarter. This week, the East China port inventory accumulated, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next Monday. The news of the possible early commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's pure benzene unit has widened the price difference between pure benzene and styrene. In the third quarter, it will face a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand [3]. - **Styrene**: The current styrene market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern. Although the overall industry开工率 remains stable, the weekly output has reached a historical high. The开工 rates of the three major downstream products (PS, ABS, EPS) have all declined. The 3S has entered the traditional off - season, and the terminal's consumption demand expectation for the third quarter is pessimistic. The East China port inventory has significantly accumulated, and styrene has entered an inventory accumulation channel. However, due to the continuous stockpiling behavior of industrial giants, the basis of the July contract has not returned to the normal level, and attention should be paid to the change of the near - end basis and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical's disproportionation unit [4]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1. Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On July 4, the main styrene futures contract price increased by 0.59% to 7340 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7904 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 8.21% to 290 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 0.34% to 5880 yuan/ton [6]. - The prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB), the United States (FOB), and China (CFR) all had small fluctuations, with increases of 0.42%, 0.00%, and 0.14% respectively. The price difference between domestic and imported pure benzene and the price difference between East China and Shandong pure benzene also changed [6]. - The prices of upstream Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all decreased, with decreases of 0.67%, 0.45%, and 0.10% respectively [6]. 3.2.2. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From June 27 to July 4, the styrene output in China remained at 36.7 million tons, and the pure benzene output remained at 43.3 million tons [7]. - The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 16.24% to 9.9 million tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased by 2.99% to 19.4 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 3.51% to 17.7 million tons [7]. 3.2.3.开工Rate Situation - Among the pure benzene downstream products, the styrene capacity utilization rate decreased slightly by 0.05% to 80.0%, the caprolactam capacity utilization rate increased by 6.41% to 95.7%, the phenol capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.46% to 78.5%, and the aniline capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.10% to 69.2% [8]. - Among the styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.84% to 55.9%, the ABS capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.96% to 65.0%, and the PS capacity utilization rate decreased by 5.00% to 52.4% [8]. 3.3. Industry News - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary admits that it may be difficult to complete all negotiations [9]. - Trump may lead a delegation to visit China. US officials are formulating a plan for Trump to lead dozens of CEOs to visit China later this year, similar to his Middle East trip in May, which facilitated transactions worth over 2 trillion dollars [9]. - Republican senators promoted the passage of a "great and beautiful" bill. The US Senate advanced Trump's tax reform bill with a narrow 51 - 49 vote in a key procedural vote [9]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [10][16][17][28]

Group 1 - The Portuguese government plans to initiate the privatization process of the national airline TAP SA in the coming weeks, aiming to sell less than 50% of its shares [2] - Major European full-service airlines, including Air France-KLM, Lufthansa Group, and International Airlines Group (IAG), have expressed interest in acquiring TAP SA, which is the leading airline providing services from Europe to Brazil [2] - TAP SA also has a strong presence in Africa and operates multiple flights to North America, highlighting its strategic importance in international aviation [2] Group 2 - The privatization plan for TAP SA was previously delayed due to a parliamentary vote in March that overthrew the center-right minority government [2] - Following early elections in May, the ruling coalition gained more seats in parliament but still did not achieve an absolute majority [2]

德国政府发言人：在关税谈判中，时间就是金钱。 ...

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US indices rising: Dow Jones +2.3%, S&P 500 +1.7%, and Nasdaq +1.6%[2] - European indices had varied results, with the UK FTSE 100 and France's CAC40 rising, while Germany's DAX index slightly declined[2] Economic Indicators - US manufacturing remains weak, with June PMI at 49, indicating contraction for four consecutive months[2] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June was 50.8, slightly above expectations, indicating slow expansion in the service sector[2] Legislative Developments - The OBBBA Act passed with a vote of 218:214, raising concerns about a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the deficit from 2026 to 2035[2] - The act aims to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent while tightening social welfare eligibility and eliminating certain subsidies[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data reduced the likelihood of a July interest rate cut from 23.8% to 6.7%[2] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from three to two for the year, with inflation data becoming increasingly critical[2] Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day, which could impact oil prices and inflation[2] - Oil price fluctuations are expected to play a significant role in shaping inflation trends and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations[2] Investment Strategy - With US stocks reaching new highs, potential risks include tariff negotiations and oil price volatility, which could lead to significant market corrections[2] - Continued upward movement in US stocks requires favorable outcomes from trade negotiations and declining oil prices[2] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[2]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves have increased, with the central bank continuously adding to its gold reserves for eight consecutive months [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 33,174 billion USD, an increase of 3.22 billion USD from the end of May, marking a rise of 0.98% [1]. - The foreign exchange reserves have remained above 32,000 billion USD for 19 consecutive months and have shown a month-on-month increase for six months [1][3]. - In the first half of 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 66.79 million USD, 1.82 billion USD, 1.3441 billion USD, 4.1 billion USD, 360 million USD, and 3.22 billion USD respectively [3]. Group 2: Gold Reserves - The central bank's gold reserves stood at 7,390 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) at the end of June, with a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces (approximately 2.18 tons) [1]. - The global demand for gold has seen a surge, with central banks net purchasing 244 tons in the first quarter of 2025, despite a slight slowdown compared to the previous quarter [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing volatility, with mixed sentiments among investors due to ongoing tariff negotiations and delayed expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may continue to delay interest rate cuts, which could negatively impact gold prices, while the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong amid fluctuating U.S. policies [7][8]. - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 from 3,015 USD to 3,215 USD per ounce, while Citigroup has a bearish outlook, expecting prices to drop to between 2,500 and 2,700 USD per ounce by the second quarter of 2026 [7][8].