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韩国总统李在明:与美国的关税谈判看起来非常艰难。
news flash· 2025-07-03 02:22
韩国总统李在明:与美国的关税谈判看起来非常艰难。 ...
韩国总统李在明:无法确定是否能在7月8日前完成与美国的关税谈判。双方在谈判中并不真正清楚各自的具体诉求。
news flash· 2025-07-03 02:17
韩国总统李在明:无法确定是否能在7月8日前完成与美国的关税谈判。双方在谈判中并不真正清楚各自 的具体诉求。 ...
开盘:三大指数集体高开 低辐射玻璃板块涨幅居前
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 01:55
Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the low-radiation glass sector leading the gains. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3456.15 points, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10431.03 points, up 0.18%; and the ChiNext Index was at 2130.74 points, up 0.33% [1] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Premier Li Qiang will attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro from July 5 to 8 and will visit Egypt from July 9 to 10 [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability as a primary regulatory task, aiming to create a better environment for high-quality capital market development [2] - A new policy in Guangzhou will initiate "commercial to public loans" when the personal housing loan rate is below 75%, with measures to control risks as the loan rate approaches 90% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, completing the annual allocation of 800 billion yuan [2] Industry Developments - The Shanghai superconducting material and headquarters base project, with an investment of 2.5 billion yuan, has officially commenced construction, marking the largest project in the superconducting field globally [3] - Luxshare Precision announced plans to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Hainan Highway announced plans to acquire a 51% stake in Jiaokong Petrochemical, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [6] - Tianqi Materials has filed a lawsuit against Yongtai Technology for commercial secret infringement, with expected economic losses of 887 million yuan [7] Company Performance - Zongshen Power expects a year-on-year net profit growth of 70% to 100% for the first half of the year; Jihong Co. anticipates a 55% to 65% increase; and Menohua expects a 143% to 175% rise in net profit for the same period [7] International Market Insights - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 up 0.47% and the Nasdaq up 0.94%, both reaching new closing highs, while the Dow Jones dipped slightly by 0.02% [7] - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, contrary to expectations of an increase of 98,000 jobs [8] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil increasing by 3.1% to $67.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 3% to $69.11 per barrel [9]
综合晨报:美国ADP就业不及预期,美越或将达成贸易协议-20250703
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 00:41
日度报告——综合晨报 美国 ADP 就业不及预期,美越或将达成贸易 协议 [T报ab告le_日R期an:k] 2025-07-03 宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数)) ADP 就业不及预期 最新的 ADP 就业远不及预期,但是市场对此反应较为平淡,美 元指数短期反弹。 宏观策略(美国股指期货) 合 今年 8000 亿"两重"项目清单全部下达完毕 晨 报 "反内卷"和海洋经济板块出现明显上涨,而军工股则有所回 落。股指成交缩量窄幅震荡。对于"反内卷"需要注意其更多 指向中下游行业以及部分新兴行业而非简单地上游行业。 黑色金属(动力煤) 7 月 2 日北港市场动力煤报价暂稳 高温持续下,电厂日耗维持季节性高位,短期煤价有所企稳。7 月初,前期安监环保影响陆续环节。内蒙产区已经陆续放开。 整体煤价预计在夏季维持稳定。 农产品(豆油/菜油/棕榈油) 印度:6 月份棕榈油进口量增加 61%至 95.3 万吨 印度 6 月棕榈油进口大幅增长,参议院禁止北美以外燃料申请 45Z 税收抵免。 特朗普称美越达成贸易协议 小非农意外爆冷,但三大股指表现维持强势,市场继续等待周 四晚公布的非农数据。 综 宏观策略(股指期货) 有色金 ...
突传重磅!特朗普:美越达成贸易协议
Group 1: US-Vietnam Trade Agreement - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, with all Vietnamese exports to the US facing at least a 20% tariff [2][3][4] - Vietnam is a significant supplier of textiles and sportswear, with major brands like Nike, Gap, and Lululemon operating in the country [4] - In 2022, Vietnam was the sixth-largest source of imports to the US, with exports close to $137 billion [4] Group 2: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 30% or 35% on Japanese imports, which is an increase from the previously proposed 24% [5][8] - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of trade over tariffs, highlighting Japan's role as the largest foreign investor in the US [8] - Japan is seeking a mutually beneficial agreement through ongoing negotiations, despite the challenges posed by the US's tariff threats [9] Group 3: EU-US Trade Negotiations - As the July 9 deadline approaches, EU member states are adopting a tougher stance in negotiations with the US, insisting on the removal of tariffs as part of any framework agreement [10][11] - The US currently imposes a 25% tariff on EU automobiles and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products, with potential expansions to other sectors [11] - The EU is preparing retaliatory measures, including a proposal for tariffs on $950 billion worth of US goods, while also considering a previous decision to impose tariffs on $210 billion of US exports [11]
7月防御性资产或成首选!机构最新观点
券商中国· 2025-07-02 23:19
Core Viewpoint - The global market is closely monitoring the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which are expected to influence market pricing for July, with a general bearish outlook on the US dollar due to increased uncertainty surrounding tariffs and fiscal policies [2][4]. Group 1: US Tariff Negotiations and Dollar Outlook - The market is anticipating the results of the US tariff negotiations set for July 9, with a significant focus on the implications for the US dollar and non-US currencies [3][4]. - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar index has declined over 7%, while Asian currencies have rebounded to new highs since October of the previous year [2][3]. - The Senate's passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to exacerbate the US fiscal deficit, further impacting the dollar's sustainability [3][4]. Group 2: Defensive Assets and Hong Kong Market - In light of the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, defensive assets have become a primary choice for investors, with the Hong Kong stock market positioned to attract more capital due to its low absolute valuations [2][6]. - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) has seen a significant decline, with one-month Hibor dropping to 0.52% and overnight Hibor nearing 0%, indicating strong market liquidity [7]. - The Hong Kong market is viewed as a new safe haven for global capital, with expectations of a multi-year depreciation cycle for the US dollar, leading to increased international investment in Hong Kong stocks [7][8]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Trends in Hong Kong - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains significantly lower than that of US markets, with the Hang Seng Index projected to have a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2% by 2025 [8]. - The influx of global and southbound capital is driving a revaluation of undervalued blue-chip stocks in Hong Kong, with notable growth in the Hong Kong central enterprise dividend ETF [8].
部长看好关税谈判 皮猜率团访问美国
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-07-02 15:08
(原标题:部长看好关税谈判 皮猜率团访问美国) 皮猜表示,泰国在这些谈判中的做法是优先考虑国家利益,同时也考虑到 美国面临的制约,目的是实现符合双方需求的双赢结果。除关税相关问题外, 还将讨论非关税壁垒,如法规、规则和与贸易有关的不便。他补充说,这为泰 国审查和改进其法规提供了一个很好的机会,以促进更顺畅的进出口业务。 据皮猜称,美国贸易代表(USTR)已与许多国家举行了会谈。然而,目 前尚不清楚这些谈判取得了多大进展,尽管有一些传言,但没有一个国家轻易 达成最终协议。因此,他指出,人们相信,最终可能会推迟实施新的关税税 率。至于税率为36%的泰国,外界猜测实际税率可能降至18%。皮猜解释说, 这只是一个学术预测,用于评估对经济增长的潜在影响,美国将对泰国商品征 收的实际税率仍然未知,并指出税率很可能低于18%。皮猜表示,泰国的谈判 立场是,无论美国征收多少税率,唯一的要求是,泰国的税率不要高于其他国 家,以保持其竞争力。他认为,其他国家可能也有同样的看法。 据曼谷邮报7月1日报道,副总理兼财政部长皮猜乐观地认为,与美国的贸 易谈判将达成一项互利的协议。他承认,这是每个人都关心的问题,特别是在 对等关税措施接 ...
日美关税谈判博弈:日本明确表态“农业底线不可破”,回应特朗普威胁
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 10:45
Group 1 - The core issue of the Japan-U.S. trade negotiations revolves around tariffs, particularly in the agricultural sector, which Japan is unwilling to compromise on despite U.S. pressure [3][4] - Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hiroshi Matsuno, emphasized that Japan will not sacrifice its agricultural interests in the negotiations, marking a clear "red line" in the discussions [4] - The agricultural sector, while not a dominant part of Japan's economy, holds significant cultural and social value, making it a sensitive topic in negotiations [3] Group 2 - Japan's firm stance indicates a commitment to protecting its agricultural industry while still seeking a mutually beneficial trade agreement with the U.S. [4] - The response from Japan may shift the focus of negotiations towards other sectors such as automobiles and digital products, as well as U.S. demands in service trade and intellectual property [5] - The outcome of these negotiations could have broader implications for the Asia-Pacific economic landscape, potentially influencing regional trade agreements like RCEP and CPTPP [5]
冠通期货早盘速递-20250702
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 10:24
热点资讯 1、中央财经委员会召开第六次会议,研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。会议强调,要依法依规 治理企业低价无序竞争,规范政府采购和招标投标、招商引资,着力推动内外贸一体化发展,持续开展规范涉企执法专项行 动,健全有利于市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系。要加强顶层设计,加大政策支持力度,鼓励引导社会资本积 极参与发展海洋经济。 2、6月财新中国制造业PMI录得50.4,高于5月2.1个百分点,与4月持平,重回临界点以上。新订单指数反弹至略高于临界点水 平。生产指数亦重回扩张区间,创近七个月来新高。 早盘速递 2025/7/2 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动(手) 2025-07-01 2025-06-30 2025-06-27 20 ...
瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250702
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 09:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories increase slightly, while overseas inventories start to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. The overseas economic situation begins to weaken, and it is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.5%. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is 15 yuan/ton, and the position of Shanghai lead is 83,801 lots, an increase of 239 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -179 lots, and the warehouse receipts are 46,439 tons, an increase of 50 tons. The LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,039 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,925 yuan/ton and 17,140 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the lead main contract is -75 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -250 US dollars/ton, a decline of 4.88% [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The supply and demand balance of lead in WBMS is 0.71 million tons. The number of production enterprises of recycled lead is 68, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is -16.33%, and the output of recycled lead is 22.42 million tons, a decline of 6.75%. The average operating rate of primary lead is 2.96%, and the output is 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The lead ore import volume is 11.97 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons. The refined lead import volume is -1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, with no change. The export volume of refined lead is 223.33 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 20,500 units, with no change. The output of automobiles is 264.2 million vehicles, an increase of 3.8%. The output of new energy vehicles is 7.3 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - US officials seek to narrow the scope of the trade agreement and strive to reach an agreement before July 9. Trump does not consider extending the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline and doubts about reaching an agreement with Japan. The US Senate passes the "big and beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives is expected to vote this week [3]