Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that exchange rates should fluctuate based on economic fundamentals and emphasized that there is no need for hasty interest rate hikes when underlying inflation is stagnant [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's stance on exchange rates reflects a focus on economic fundamentals rather than speculative movements [1] - Ueda's comments suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy, indicating that the central bank will not rush into raising interest rates without clear signs of inflationary pressure [1] - The emphasis on stable economic conditions highlights the Bank of Japan's commitment to maintaining a balanced approach in its monetary policy [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, with a projected GDP growth target of 8% for 2025, supported by increased public investment and domestic consumption [4][27]. Core Insights - Vietnam's GDP growth accelerated to 6.9% in Q1 2025, up from 5.9% in Q1 2024, driven by increases in domestic consumption and investment [2][11]. - Retail sales saw a significant increase of 10.8% year-on-year in March 2025, marking the highest monthly growth in nearly two years, attributed to rising wages and improved purchasing power [20][21]. - Industrial production improved with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% in March 2025, compared to 4.8% in March 2024, driven by sectors such as apparel, electronics, and machinery [13][31]. - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) commitments decreased by 9.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid global trade uncertainties, although FDI disbursements remained resilient [17][18]. Economic Performance - The average monthly income in the first three months of 2025 rose by 9.5% compared to the same period in 2024, leading to a real wage growth of 6% [20]. - The inflation rate in March 2025 increased to 3.1%, driven by rising food and housing prices, but remained below the State Bank of Vietnam's target of 4.5-5% for 2025 [22][23]. - The trade surplus decreased to $3.2 billion in Q1 2025, down from $7.7 billion in Q1 2024, due to a slowdown in export growth to 10.6% from 16.8% [11][12]. Fiscal Overview - Fiscal revenue in the first quarter of 2025 reached 36.7% of the annual budget, up from 31.7% in the same period of 2024, primarily due to increased VAT and corporate income tax collections [3][27]. - Public investment disbursement rates slowed to 9.5% of the annual plan by the end of March 2025, compared to 12.3% in the previous year, posing challenges for achieving the GDP growth target [27].

马来西亚林吉特兑美元 汇率升至11月以来最高水平。 ...

马来西亚林吉特兑美元汇率升至去年11月以来最高水平。 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者宏观团队 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 4 . 1 9 - 4 . 2 6 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解 热点思考 1、 美元："巴别塔"的倒塌？——"汇率"观察双周报系列之一 2、 美国经济：关税冲击与"滞胀"踪迹——关税"压力测试"系列之三 3、 财政"续力"正当时 4、 "关税冲击"的行业脉络？ 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第28期 《服务消费"画像"》 2、"洞见"系列会议第56期 《美元：" 巴别塔 "倒塌？"汇率"观察双周报系列之一》 3、"洞见"系列会议第57期 《美国经济：关税冲击与"滞涨"踪迹——关税"压力测试"系列之三》 深度专题 1 坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解 深度研究 2025.4.25 《坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解》 "坚定不移办好自己的事"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策" 1、 海外高频 | 特朗普关税态度软化，3月美国零售反弹 2、 政策跟踪 | ...

智通财经4月24日电，日本财务大臣加藤胜信表示，汇率应该由市场决定，汇率过度波动将对经济带来 负面影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Peter Schiff's commentary suggests that the perceived strength of American consumers is an illusion created by currency exchange rates, and he warns that this "American dream" may soon come to an end [1][6][16] Group 1: Consumer Power - Schiff argues that while American consumers are often seen as the backbone of global consumption, the reality is that their purchasing power is heavily influenced by the dollar's strength [3][4] - He highlights that if the Chinese yuan were to double in value, the income of Chinese consumers would significantly increase, challenging the notion of American consumer supremacy [4][16] - The comparison with European consumers shows that if the euro appreciates, their purchasing power would also rise, further questioning the sustainability of the dollar's dominance [4][8] Group 2: Economic Implications - Schiff's statements imply that the current economic model, which relies on the dollar as the world's reserve currency, is fragile and could lead to a significant shift in global economic power [9][11] - He suggests that if global markets begin to abandon the dollar, American consumers could face a drastic reduction in their purchasing power, making it difficult for them to afford even basic goods [9][11] - The commentary indicates that countries like China and those in Europe may be better positioned for future economic stability due to their manufacturing capabilities and population advantages [16][18] Group 3: Future Outlook - Schiff's perspective serves as a warning that the "golden age" of American consumers may be ending, and a new chapter in global consumption dynamics could be emerging [16][17] - The potential for a shift in economic power dynamics is emphasized, suggesting that the world may soon see a rebalancing of consumer markets [11][16] - The commentary concludes with the notion that many may not recognize the changing landscape of global consumption, indicating a significant transformation is underway [17][18]

"人民币汇率破7"、"日元贬值"、"美元暴跌"…. 这都是最近两年我们常看到的一些新闻。可是对于汇率，你真的了解吗？汇率的变化会受哪些因素影响？其中又反映了哪些更深层次的经济问题呢？ 大家好，我是老丁 一、汇率 汇率，指的是两种货币之间兑换的比率，也可视作一个国家的货币对另一种货币的价值。 当你看到"1美元=7.3人民币"的时候，就意味着你要花7块3人民币，才能换到1美元。这就是人民币兑美元的汇率。在零几年的时候，8块人民币兑换1美 元，后来人民币一路升值，在2014年的时候最高到过6元人民币兑换1美元（如图）。 那时候媒体都说人民币升值不好，会打击出口。这些年人民币又贬值到7.3人民币兑换1美元的时候，媒体又说贬值不好，会资金外流，所以，到底哪一种 才是相对好的呢？ 因为在那个阶段，中国经济的构成是以出口为主要动力。促进商品出口，就是当时拉动经济促进民营企业最好的方式，而汇率升值，恰恰是会打压出口 的，所以那时候的中国并没有那么喜欢货币升值。而到了今天，中国已经变成一个以内需为经济主导的地区，而且现在的中国经济其实更需要汇率稳定。 所以今天的人民币如果出现贬值，也同样不被喜欢。 二、汇率变化因为汇率变化的直 ...

美元指数跌破99关口是近期金融市场的一个重要事件。这一变动背后隐藏着诸多经济因素，也将对全球经济和金融市场带来深远影响，引起广泛 关注和讨论。 走势情况：近期美元指数持续下探，最终跌破了99关口。这一走势并非偶然，是一系列因素交织的结果。从技术层面看，美元指数已出现多日下 跌趋势，市场上看空美元的力量逐步增强。从更宏观角度，它与美国的经济数据表现、货币政策预期等息息相关。 未来展望：美元指数后市走向充满不确定性。若美国经济数据改善、货币政策转向，美元指数可能止跌回升。但如果经济持续疲软，货币政策维 持宽松，美元可能进一步走弱。投资者和企业需密切关注市场动态，做好风险管理。 你认为美元指数未来一段时间会回升还是继续下跌？不妨点赞、分享文章并在评论区交流看法。 汇率市场：美元指数下跌直接影响到各国货币与美元的汇率。一些新兴市场货币趁势反弹，在一定程度上缓解了本币贬值压力。对于进出口企业 而言，这会影响到它们的成本和利润。出口型企业可能因本币升值而面临订单减少的困境，进口型企业则因货币购买力增强而降低采购成本。 商品市场：美元与大宗商品价格通常呈反向关系。随着美元指数跌破99，黄金、原油等大宗商品价格往往会上涨。以 ...

2025.04. 12 当地时间11日，WTO首席经济学家奥萨（Ralph Ossa）发表长篇文章对关税进行解释，并对关税同 通胀、汇率以及贸易失衡之间的关系一一作答。 "关税的核心很简单：提高进口商品的国内价格。但关税的影响会以复杂的方式波及整个经济——改 变价格、工资、汇率和贸易模式。当各国政府重新审视这一强有力的杠杆时，了解其中的经济机制就 显得尤为重要。"奥萨表示。 他表示，"在关税重回贸易政策议程之际，在经济学中，关税不仅仅是增加收入或保护国内产业的工 具，它还是一种政策杠杆，具有广泛的、往往是意想不到的后果。" 奥萨称，"它们在短期内的吸引力可能会掩盖其对通货膨胀、竞争力和国际合作造成的长期代价。在 贸易紧张局势日益加剧的今天，清醒地看待这些利弊得失比以往任何时候都更加重要。" 近期，世贸组织（WTO）发布声明称，最近（美方）一系列政策宣布将对全球贸易和经济增长前景 产生重大影响。WTO初步分析表明，"目前的措施，加上今年年初以来出台的措施，可能导致今年全 球商品贸易量整体萎缩约1%，较之前预测下调近四个百分点。" 本文字数：2267，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ：当前一个热门问题是关税是否会影响贸 ...