俄罗斯卢布

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据路透调查:预计12个月后俄罗斯卢布兑美元将升至98.25(此前调查为97.5)。
news flash· 2025-07-01 14:27
Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey predicts that the Russian ruble will strengthen against the US dollar, reaching 98.25 in 12 months, up from a previous forecast of 97.5 [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a slight appreciation of the ruble against the dollar over the next year [1]
整理:每日全球外汇市场要闻速递(5月29日)
news flash· 2025-05-29 08:00
Group 1: US Dollar and Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve's June economic forecast may be influenced by predictions of stagflation [2] - The US International Trade Court has halted Trump's "liberation day" trade policy, with the Trump administration filing an appeal [2] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting indicate rising risks of increased unemployment and inflation, diminishing the benefits of a flexible average inflation targeting in a high-risk environment [2] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - The Central Bank of Russia's tightening monetary policy has led to a slowdown in credit to balanced levels, with signs of inflation retreat [3] - The UK is seeking to expedite the implementation of a trade agreement with the US [3] - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of investment over tariffs, noting positive economic signs following wage increases [3] - Japan's Finance Minister stated that there was no discussion of exchange rate levels in recent talks with the US Treasury Secretary [3] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister will continue to urge the US to reconsider tariff measures and will hold ministerial talks on trade expansion and economic security cooperation [3] Group 3: Other Central Banks and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor indicated that the official cash rate (OCR) may follow various paths, with uncertainty regarding a rate cut in July [4] - The Bank of Korea cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, aligning with market expectations [4] - The Bank of Korea forecasts inflation rates of 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, while lowering economic growth expectations for 2025 to 0.8% [4] - A Reuters survey indicated that 53 out of 61 economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on June 6 [4] - The Bank of Korea's Governor noted that there is still room for further rate cuts due to economic downturn risks, with a low likelihood of policy rates falling below 2% [4] - The Bank of Korea's Governor mentioned that recent US court rulings will reduce the effective tariff rate on Korea from 13.3% to 9.7% [5] Group 4: Currency Trends and Investor Sentiment - Investor bullish positions on the New Taiwan Dollar and Philippine Peso have reached the highest levels since 2020, reflecting optimism towards all Asian currencies [5] - The Russian Ruble briefly strengthened against the US Dollar, reaching its highest level since June 2023 [5]
俄罗斯央行:俄罗斯卢布兑美元涨穿80卢布整数位心理关口。
news flash· 2025-05-21 14:52
Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has reported that the Russian ruble has surpassed the psychological threshold of 80 rubles per dollar [1] Group 1 - The ruble's exchange rate against the dollar has crossed the significant level of 80, indicating potential volatility in the currency market [1]
美银策略师:如何布局“下一轮大牛市”?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-19 06:37
Group 1 - Michael Hartnett's prediction of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" has partially materialized, with the S&P 500 index surging 5% following the announcement of a trade agreement framework [1] - Hartnett identifies the best and worst performing assets for 2025, with oil expected to decline by 12% and gold projected to rise by 21% [1] - Key levels to watch include a 5% yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, a 100-point level on the dollar index, and a 5000-point level on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) [1] Group 2 - A potential combination of rising bond yields and a declining dollar could lead to a sell-off in U.S. equities, with 5% yield seen as a critical threshold [2] - Emerging market stocks are predicted to be the core engine of a new bull market, supported by a weaker dollar, peaked bond yields, and a boost from the Chinese economy [2] - The "Riyadh Agreement" driven by Trump is key to lowering oil prices, facilitating increased production from Saudi Arabia and Russia in exchange for sanctions relief [2] Group 3 - Hartnett warns that bond yields will reveal the ultimate outcome of U.S. policy, with a preference for a scenario of declining yields and deflation by 2025 [3] - The removal of the AAA rating by Moody's has cast a shadow over the long-term bond market [3]
亚洲区域货币普涨的背后
一瑜中的· 2025-05-06 14:56
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the collective appreciation of Asian currencies during the May Day holiday, primarily driven by the significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, which rose by 6.8% [2][8]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is attributed to exporters selling US dollars and insurance companies' foreign exchange hedging operations, which may have intensified the currency's rise [11][12]. - The article suggests that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may not be an isolated case, as a weakening US dollar could lead to a repatriation of foreign assets, further driving local currency appreciation [11][12]. Group 2 - During the May Day holiday, global asset performance leaned towards a "risk-on" sentiment, with major stock markets experiencing gains, particularly the Nasdaq index, which rose by 3% [4][18]. - The US non-farm payrolls for April exceeded expectations, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, indicating a robust labor market and alleviating recession concerns [5][29]. - The US GDP for Q1 turned negative for the first time since Q3 2022, recording a -0.3% growth rate, primarily due to a significant decline in net exports [5][35]. Group 3 - The Bank of Japan decided to pause interest rate hikes, maintaining the policy rate at 0.5%, citing uncertainties related to tariff policies as a key factor [5][36]. - The OPEC+ meeting on May 3 agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which is three times the original planned increase, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [6][41]. - Warren Buffett announced his retirement at the end of the year during the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, emphasizing the importance of not using trade as a weapon and expressing optimism about the US economy [7][42].
2025年4月30日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价
news flash· 2025-04-30 01:20
2025年4月30日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.2014,下调(人民币升值)15点; 欧元/人民币报8.2250,下调120点; 港元/人民币报0.92813,下调4点; 英镑/人民币报9.6867,下调149点; 澳元/人民币报4.6177,下调290点; 加元/人民币报5.2298,上调1点; 100日元/人民币报5.0872,下调25点; 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.2833,下调679点; 新西兰元/人民币报4.2996,下调229点; 人民币/林吉特报0.59837,下调33.1点; 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7640,下调231点; 新加坡元/人民币报5.5219,上调40点。 ...
3大国冲击美元霸权,美元体系还能维持多久?谁都担心被突然
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-26 19:25
Group 1: Dollar Hegemony - The dominance of the dollar was established post-World War II with the Bretton Woods system, supported by the strong economic power of the United States [3][5] - The dollar's status as the primary currency is reinforced by its significant share in global foreign exchange reserves, accounting for over 65% [7] - The dollar's position allows U.S. companies to mitigate exchange rate risks and attract substantial capital inflows into its financial markets [7] Group 2: Emerging Currency Challenges - The Indian Rupee has gained traction among developing countries, with agreements to settle oil transactions in Rupees, although India's economic development remains a limiting factor [9][14] - Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT system has prompted a shift towards Ruble settlements for energy exports, which could challenge the dollar's dominance if successful [11][13] - The Chinese Yuan is emerging as a strong competitor to the dollar, supported by China's robust economic growth and increasing global acceptance [14][18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The increasing reliance on the Yuan by countries like Brazil, which saw a threefold increase in its foreign reserves in Yuan, indicates a growing trend away from the dollar [16][18] - The long-term potential for the Yuan to challenge the dollar hinges on China's comprehensive economic strength and manufacturing capabilities [20] - Overall, while the Rupee and Ruble are making strides, the Yuan is positioned as the most formidable challenger to dollar hegemony in the future [20]