近年来，去美元化逐渐成为国际讨论的热点话题。许多国家在面临美国频繁的金融制裁和美元霸权时，开始寻求摆脱美元的控制。例如，俄罗斯被排除出 SWIFT系统，金砖国家提议推出共同货币，全球超过三分之一的国家受到了美国的金融制裁。美元并不是一普通货币，它在全球贸易中占据着非常重要的地 位——54%的全球贸易是以美元计价的，90%的外汇交易与美元有关，全球超过一半的央行外汇储备也是美元。 美国频繁将美元用作制裁工具，尤其是在新兴经济体合作寻求替代方案的背景下，美元的全球霸权是否会走向崩塌呢？为了回答这个问题，我们首先需要理 解美元霸权的根基，以及替代方案所面临的真实困境。 美元霸权的基础非常牢固，首先体现在它作为全球结算货币的无可替代地位。在内罗毕的街头市场，商家毫不犹豫地接受美元，在曼谷的银行兑换外汇时， 美元被视为硬通货。甚至在加拉加斯的加油站，美元也可以直接支付。这种全球通用的现象，背后是强有力的数据支撑。 全球88%的货币交易中，至少有一方是美元。即便美国并未参与其中，54%的贸易仍然以美元计价。这个默认选择产生了强大的网络效应，许多国家选择使 用美元，不仅因为它稳定，更因为其他国家也都在使用，没人愿意跳出这个 ...

Core Insights - The Brazilian real has appreciated by 16.18% against the US dollar year-to-date as of September 17, making it the fifth strongest currency globally [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar is attributed to investor skepticism regarding President Trump's economic policies [1] - Among 33 global currencies, only four have depreciated, with the Russian ruble, Hungarian forint, and Swedish krona leading in appreciation [1] Currency Performance - The Brazilian real's nominal appreciation of 16.18% ranks fifth globally [1] - The top three appreciating currencies are: - Russian ruble (+36.6%) - Hungarian forint (+19.96%) - Swedish krona (+18.29%) [1] - The currencies with the largest depreciation include: - Argentine peso (-30.05%) - Turkish lira (-14.45%) - Indian rupee (-2.98%) [1]

Core Points - Indonesia is prepared to engage in currency settlement with Russia, moving away from the use of the US dollar and opting for direct transactions in Indonesian Rupiah and Russian Ruble [1][3] - The trend of "de-dollarization" has gained momentum among emerging market countries, with Indonesia being one of the more proactive nations in this regard since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][5] - Indonesia has already initiated currency settlement discussions with countries like China, Japan, and Thailand, and has been in multiple rounds of negotiations with Russia over the past three years [5][6] Group 1 - Indonesia's trade minister confirmed readiness for currency settlement with Russia, indicating a significant shift in trade dynamics [1] - The move is seen as a potential blow to the US, given Indonesia's status as Southeast Asia's largest economy and its projected GDP ranking [1] - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization reflects a broader shift in global financial practices, particularly among emerging markets [3] Group 2 - Previous discussions on currency settlement between Indonesia and Russia date back to September 2022, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts [3] - Although the currency settlement mechanism has not yet been fully implemented, Indonesia's preparations suggest a strong likelihood of future agreements [5] - The implications of this shift could challenge the dominance of the US dollar in international trade [6]

Core Point - The effective exchange rate of the Russian Ruble increased by 1.8% month-on-month in June [1] Group 1 - The increase in the effective exchange rate indicates a strengthening of the Russian Ruble against a basket of currencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey predicts that the Russian ruble will strengthen against the US dollar, reaching 98.25 in 12 months, up from a previous forecast of 97.5 [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a slight appreciation of the ruble against the dollar over the next year [1]

Group 1: US Dollar and Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve's June economic forecast may be influenced by predictions of stagflation [2] - The US International Trade Court has halted Trump's "liberation day" trade policy, with the Trump administration filing an appeal [2] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting indicate rising risks of increased unemployment and inflation, diminishing the benefits of a flexible average inflation targeting in a high-risk environment [2] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - The Central Bank of Russia's tightening monetary policy has led to a slowdown in credit to balanced levels, with signs of inflation retreat [3] - The UK is seeking to expedite the implementation of a trade agreement with the US [3] - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of investment over tariffs, noting positive economic signs following wage increases [3] - Japan's Finance Minister stated that there was no discussion of exchange rate levels in recent talks with the US Treasury Secretary [3] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister will continue to urge the US to reconsider tariff measures and will hold ministerial talks on trade expansion and economic security cooperation [3] Group 3: Other Central Banks and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor indicated that the official cash rate (OCR) may follow various paths, with uncertainty regarding a rate cut in July [4] - The Bank of Korea cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, aligning with market expectations [4] - The Bank of Korea forecasts inflation rates of 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, while lowering economic growth expectations for 2025 to 0.8% [4] - A Reuters survey indicated that 53 out of 61 economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on June 6 [4] - The Bank of Korea's Governor noted that there is still room for further rate cuts due to economic downturn risks, with a low likelihood of policy rates falling below 2% [4] - The Bank of Korea's Governor mentioned that recent US court rulings will reduce the effective tariff rate on Korea from 13.3% to 9.7% [5] Group 4: Currency Trends and Investor Sentiment - Investor bullish positions on the New Taiwan Dollar and Philippine Peso have reached the highest levels since 2020, reflecting optimism towards all Asian currencies [5] - The Russian Ruble briefly strengthened against the US Dollar, reaching its highest level since June 2023 [5]

Core Insights - The Russian ruble has surpassed 79 against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since June 2023 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate movement indicates a strengthening of the ruble, which may reflect changes in market sentiment or economic conditions [1]

Core Point - The Russian ruble has strengthened against the US dollar, surpassing 79, marking its strongest level since June 2023 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar has reached a significant milestone, indicating a notable appreciation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has reported that the Russian ruble has surpassed the psychological threshold of 80 rubles per dollar [1] Group 1 - The ruble's exchange rate against the dollar has crossed the significant level of 80, indicating potential volatility in the currency market [1]

Group 1 - Michael Hartnett's prediction of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" has partially materialized, with the S&P 500 index surging 5% following the announcement of a trade agreement framework [1] - Hartnett identifies the best and worst performing assets for 2025, with oil expected to decline by 12% and gold projected to rise by 21% [1] - Key levels to watch include a 5% yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, a 100-point level on the dollar index, and a 5000-point level on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) [1] Group 2 - A potential combination of rising bond yields and a declining dollar could lead to a sell-off in U.S. equities, with 5% yield seen as a critical threshold [2] - Emerging market stocks are predicted to be the core engine of a new bull market, supported by a weaker dollar, peaked bond yields, and a boost from the Chinese economy [2] - The "Riyadh Agreement" driven by Trump is key to lowering oil prices, facilitating increased production from Saudi Arabia and Russia in exchange for sanctions relief [2] Group 3 - Hartnett warns that bond yields will reveal the ultimate outcome of U.S. policy, with a preference for a scenario of declining yields and deflation by 2025 [3] - The removal of the AAA rating by Moody's has cast a shadow over the long-term bond market [3]