据蒙古央行、蒙古国家统计总局公布数据，11月份，蒙图格里克对美元月均汇率1美元兑3571.66图格里 克，同比贬值158.9图格里克。同期，蒙图格里克对欧元月均汇率1欧元兑4128.71图格里克，同比贬值 498.2图格里克。蒙图格里克对俄罗斯卢布月均汇率1卢布兑44.42图格里克，同比贬值10.4图格里克。蒙 图格里克对人民币月均汇率1元兑502.37图格里克，同比贬值28.7图格里克。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining traction globally as countries seek to reduce reliance on the US dollar due to frequent financial sanctions and dollar hegemony [1][15] Group 1: Dollar Hegemony - The US dollar holds an irreplaceable position as the global settlement currency, with 54% of global trade denominated in dollars and 90% of foreign exchange transactions involving the dollar [1][5] - The dollar's dominance is supported by strong network effects, as 88% of currency transactions involve the dollar, making it a default choice for many countries [5][6] - The US controls the dollar settlement chain, with over 90% of cross-border dollar transactions requiring US banks for clearing, allowing the US to exert influence through financial sanctions [6][7] Group 2: Foundations of Dollar Hegemony - The first pillar of dollar hegemony is economic strength, with the US GDP rising from 5% of the global total in 1850 to 25% by 1960, establishing the dollar as the global trade currency [7][9] - The second pillar is institutional legacy, with the Bretton Woods system establishing the dollar's central role in the global monetary system, despite its collapse in 1971 [9] - The third pillar is the oil-dollar linkage, initiated by the 1974 agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia, requiring oil transactions to be conducted in dollars [9][10] Group 3: Challenges to De-dollarization - Current alternatives to the dollar face significant challenges, with Russia's SWIFT alternative covering only a small portion of global cross-border payments [10] - Other currencies like the Saudi Riyal and UAE Dirham have minimal shares in global trade financing, primarily due to a lack of liquidity and trust [10] - Despite rising calls for de-dollarization, countries still rely on the dollar for a significant portion of their transactions, indicating the dollar's continued dominance [13][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, dollar hegemony remains strong, with over $8 trillion of US debt held by foreign entities, making a mass sell-off unlikely [12] - The trend towards de-dollarization is evident, with countries exploring local currency trade agreements, but the dollar will still dominate major commodity trade and cross-border investment [14][15] - The conclusion is that while the dollar's immediate collapse is unrealistic, the trend towards de-dollarization is significant, prompting countries to diversify their currency holdings [15]

Core Insights - The Brazilian real has appreciated by 16.18% against the US dollar year-to-date as of September 17, making it the fifth strongest currency globally [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar is attributed to investor skepticism regarding President Trump's economic policies [1] - Among 33 global currencies, only four have depreciated, with the Russian ruble, Hungarian forint, and Swedish krona leading in appreciation [1] Currency Performance - The Brazilian real's nominal appreciation of 16.18% ranks fifth globally [1] - The top three appreciating currencies are: - Russian ruble (+36.6%) - Hungarian forint (+19.96%) - Swedish krona (+18.29%) [1] - The currencies with the largest depreciation include: - Argentine peso (-30.05%) - Turkish lira (-14.45%) - Indian rupee (-2.98%) [1]

Core Points - Indonesia is prepared to engage in currency settlement with Russia, moving away from the use of the US dollar and opting for direct transactions in Indonesian Rupiah and Russian Ruble [1][3] - The trend of "de-dollarization" has gained momentum among emerging market countries, with Indonesia being one of the more proactive nations in this regard since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][5] - Indonesia has already initiated currency settlement discussions with countries like China, Japan, and Thailand, and has been in multiple rounds of negotiations with Russia over the past three years [5][6] Group 1 - Indonesia's trade minister confirmed readiness for currency settlement with Russia, indicating a significant shift in trade dynamics [1] - The move is seen as a potential blow to the US, given Indonesia's status as Southeast Asia's largest economy and its projected GDP ranking [1] - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization reflects a broader shift in global financial practices, particularly among emerging markets [3] Group 2 - Previous discussions on currency settlement between Indonesia and Russia date back to September 2022, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts [3] - Although the currency settlement mechanism has not yet been fully implemented, Indonesia's preparations suggest a strong likelihood of future agreements [5] - The implications of this shift could challenge the dominance of the US dollar in international trade [6]

Core Point - The effective exchange rate of the Russian Ruble increased by 1.8% month-on-month in June [1] Group 1 - The increase in the effective exchange rate indicates a strengthening of the Russian Ruble against a basket of currencies [1]

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey predicts that the Russian ruble will strengthen against the US dollar, reaching 98.25 in 12 months, up from a previous forecast of 97.5 [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a slight appreciation of the ruble against the dollar over the next year [1]

Group 1: US Dollar and Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve's June economic forecast may be influenced by predictions of stagflation [2] - The US International Trade Court has halted Trump's "liberation day" trade policy, with the Trump administration filing an appeal [2] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting indicate rising risks of increased unemployment and inflation, diminishing the benefits of a flexible average inflation targeting in a high-risk environment [2] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - The Central Bank of Russia's tightening monetary policy has led to a slowdown in credit to balanced levels, with signs of inflation retreat [3] - The UK is seeking to expedite the implementation of a trade agreement with the US [3] - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of investment over tariffs, noting positive economic signs following wage increases [3] - Japan's Finance Minister stated that there was no discussion of exchange rate levels in recent talks with the US Treasury Secretary [3] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister will continue to urge the US to reconsider tariff measures and will hold ministerial talks on trade expansion and economic security cooperation [3] Group 3: Other Central Banks and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor indicated that the official cash rate (OCR) may follow various paths, with uncertainty regarding a rate cut in July [4] - The Bank of Korea cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, aligning with market expectations [4] - The Bank of Korea forecasts inflation rates of 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, while lowering economic growth expectations for 2025 to 0.8% [4] - A Reuters survey indicated that 53 out of 61 economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on June 6 [4] - The Bank of Korea's Governor noted that there is still room for further rate cuts due to economic downturn risks, with a low likelihood of policy rates falling below 2% [4] - The Bank of Korea's Governor mentioned that recent US court rulings will reduce the effective tariff rate on Korea from 13.3% to 9.7% [5] Group 4: Currency Trends and Investor Sentiment - Investor bullish positions on the New Taiwan Dollar and Philippine Peso have reached the highest levels since 2020, reflecting optimism towards all Asian currencies [5] - The Russian Ruble briefly strengthened against the US Dollar, reaching its highest level since June 2023 [5]

Core Insights - The Russian ruble has surpassed 79 against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since June 2023 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate movement indicates a strengthening of the ruble, which may reflect changes in market sentiment or economic conditions [1]

Core Point - The Russian ruble has strengthened against the US dollar, surpassing 79, marking its strongest level since June 2023 [1] Group 1 - The exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar has reached a significant milestone, indicating a notable appreciation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has reported that the Russian ruble has surpassed the psychological threshold of 80 rubles per dollar [1] Group 1 - The ruble's exchange rate against the dollar has crossed the significant level of 80, indicating potential volatility in the currency market [1]