Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Cautiously bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Sideways [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea: On Wednesday, the spot price of urea strengthened slightly, with prices in Shandong and Henan rising to 1,840 yuan/ton. The daily output was 19.91 tons, a daily decrease of 0.03 tons. The Indian tender provides support, but the final impact needs further observation. The market remains firm, and subsequent focus should be on the final tender price and export policy [1]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the spot price of soda ash was still being adjusted downward in some areas. The trading sentiment was subdued, but the futures market rose for several days. The industry's operating rate reached 82.58%. The supply and demand of the spot market are weak, and the price is in a downward range. Attention should be paid to inventory data, market sentiment, and downstream production changes [1]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the spot price of glass remained stable at 1,173 yuan/ton. The supply was stable, with a daily melting volume of 15.84 tons. The demand continued to follow up, but the trading atmosphere declined slightly. The market drive is limited, and the price needs more positive factors to rise [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On July 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 2,245, a decrease of 362 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. - On July 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.91 tons, a decrease of 0.03 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.02 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 85.98%, a 3.36 - percentage - point increase from 82.62% in the same period last year [4]. - On July 9, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased, with Shandong and Henan at 1,840 yuan/ton, up 20 and 30 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - As of July 9, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons (-4.99%) from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On July 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,736, a decrease of 297 from the previous trading day, with 476 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 799, a decrease of 3 from the previous trading day [7]. - On July 9, the spot prices of soda ash in some regions decreased. For example, the light soda ash in North China dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and in East China, it dropped by 30 yuan/ton [7]. - On July 9, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.58%, up from 82.2% the previous working day [8]. - On July 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,173 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.84 tons, also unchanged [8]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and price spreads of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the futures price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][15][19][20][22]. Group 5: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [25]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won multiple honors [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upward trend of the stock index is not yet over, with recent geopolitical issues causing only a slight pullback in mid-June, followed by a notable increase in A-shares as geopolitical tensions eased [3] - As of June 27, 2025, the best-performing sectors include banking and telecommunications, while food and beverage and coal industries show weaker performance [3] - The market's observation sentiment has improved with the index rebound, as evidenced by the annualized basis of IM stock index futures decreasing from a previous high of 17% to around 11% [3] Group 2 - The report recommends investing in dividend-paying construction state-owned enterprises at valuation bottoms, driven by market capitalization management and state-owned enterprise reform policies [7] - The report highlights the growth of China's foreign contracting business, with a revenue of 445.08 billion RMB from January to May 2025, marking a 6.6% year-on-year increase, and a new contract amount of 709.08 billion RMB, up 14.4% [8] - The report suggests investing in companies within the new productivity construction industry chain, which combines dividends and growth potential, particularly in areas like low-altitude economy and AI [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire in the Middle East, geopolitical speculation may come to an end. In the future, two points need attention: the impact of coal market sentiment on coal - chemical industry may slow down, and urea demand in the next two months is expected to be good. Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On June 24, 2025, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, UR09 were 1667 yuan/ton, 1686 yuan/ton, 1698 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 19 yuan/ton (- 1.13%), - 17 yuan/ton (- 1.00%), - 13 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) compared to June 23. Domestic spot prices in different regions also showed certain changes, such as a - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.05%) change in the Northeast [1] Basis and Spread - On June 24, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton compared to June 23. The 01 - 05 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream, the prices of some products like compound fertilizer and melamine were mostly stable, while the price of compound fertilizer in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1679 yuan/ton, the highest was 1726 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1672 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1698 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1698 yuan/ton, and the position was 247071 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities. Consider the risk of changes in export policies [1]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250623:关注回落后的做多机会 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 6月20日 6月19日 | 单位 | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1689.00 1820.00 1680.00 | 1725.00 1840.00 1730.00 | -36.00 -20.00 -50.00 | -2.09% -1.09% -2.89% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1709.00 | 1737.00 | -28.00 | -1.61% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1780.00 | -50.00 | -2.81% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1820.00 | 1830.00 | -10.00 | -0.55% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250619: 现货成交有好转 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 6月18日 6月17日 单位 | | | | (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1736.00 1830.00 | 1726.00 1739.00 1810.00 | 10.00 20.00 | 0.58% 1.10% 2.37% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1744.00 | | 5.00 | 0.29% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1789.00 | 1774.00 | 15.00 | 0.85% | | 国内现货价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1690.00 | 40.00 | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1820.00 | 1790.00 | 30.00 | 1.68% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1830.00 | 180 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250613: 需求偏弱,关注后市农需释放 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 6月12日 6月11日 | 单位 | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (絕对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1635.00 1740.00 1600.00 | 1647.00 1750.00 1620.00 | -12.00 -10.00 -20.00 | -0.73% -0.57% -1.23% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1664.00 | 1685.00 | -21.00 | -1.25% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1646.00 | 1667.00 | -21.00 | -1.26% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1750.00 | -20.00 | -1.14% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Fosda has experienced significant growth in revenue and net profit in the first quarter of 2024, driven by the booming coal chemical industry, particularly in Xinjiang, which has favorable resources, policies, and economic conditions [1][2][3][4] Company Performance - In Q1 2024, Fosda reported a revenue of 594 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.04%, and a non-net profit of 115.35%, indicating strong sales growth and improved profit margins [4] - The company distributed a cash dividend of 79.21 million yuan, accounting for 30.33% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, reflecting a balance between shareholder returns and future business expansion [3][4] Industry Trends - The coal chemical industry is gaining momentum, with a projected investment of 1,032.9 billion yuan by the end of 2024, translating to an average annual investment of 206.58 billion yuan over five years [2] - Xinjiang's coal production is expected to reach 54 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, positioning it as a key contributor to China's coal supply and coal chemical development [1][2] Market Opportunities - The coal chemical sector, including coal-to-oil, coal-to-olefins, and coal-to-natural gas, is increasingly seen as a viable alternative to traditional oil and gas due to high international oil prices [2] - Fosda, as a manufacturer of cryogenic equipment essential for coal chemical processes, stands to benefit significantly from the growing demand for industrial equipment in this sector [1][3]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250612: 需求偏弱,关注后市农需释放 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1647.00 1750.00 1620.00 | 1646.00 1760.00 1640.00 | 1.00 -10.00 -20.00 | 0.06% -0.57% -1.22% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1685.00 | 1681.00 | 4.00 | 0.24% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1667.00 | 1678.00 | -11.00 | -0.66% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1750.00 | 1760.00 | -10.00 | -0.57% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，走势先抑后扬。截至收盘主力09合约报1774元/吨，日 | 震荡 | | | 环比收平。现货市场多数稳定，个别地区小幅波动，山东、河南地区市场价格分别 | | | | 稳定在1870元/吨、1850元/吨。近期尿素供应水平高位波动，昨日行业日产量20.47 | | | | 万吨，日环比下 0.16万吨。需求端跟进仍较为谨慎，农业产区麦收，对农资采购 | | | | 动分散。昨日主流地区尿素产销率徘徊在20%~50%区间，仅个别地区能达到产销 | | | | 平衡。另外，近期部分下游开工下滑，对尿素刚需也有所减弱。本周尿素企业库存 | | | | 提升5.59%，部分企业为缓解出货压力出现低端价格松动现象。整体来看，麦收结束 | | | | 后尿素需求及出口仍有放量预期，但尿素价格上方限制依旧明显。尿素期货价格同 | | | | 时受商品市场整体情绪波动而波动，但期价上方也仍有明显限制。预计短期尿素期 | ...

多家上市煤企近日公布的今年一季度业绩显示，全国煤炭产量创历史同期新高，其中山西煤炭产量大 增，煤炭供应总量充足。但同时，市场维持供强需弱局面，煤炭销售量和价格普遍下降，营收和行业效 益均出现一定程度下降，不过多数公司仍维持盈利，长协煤、新能源和煤化工等业务指标呈逆势上涨， 体现出企业的韧性和转型机遇。 产量再创同期新高 国家能源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾日前介绍，一季度我国规上工业原煤产量12亿吨，同比增长 8.1%；3月规上工业原煤产量同比增长9.6%，日均产量超过1400万吨。 中国煤炭运销协会指出，尽管一季度煤炭供给整体充足，同时宏观经济运行总体平稳，全社会用电小幅 增长，但工业用电同比下降，叠加非化石能源出力较好等因素，煤炭消费出现回落。一季度煤炭供需相 对宽松，全社会煤炭库存继续升高，特别是上中游存煤明显累积，煤炭市场总体呈现供强需弱局面，市 场价格弱势下行，行业效益大幅下降。 作为全球规模最大的煤炭上市公司之一，中国神华（601088）的业务覆盖煤炭、电力、铁路、港口、航 运、煤化工等全产业链。该公司表示，煤炭销售量及平均销售价格下降导致煤炭销售收入减少、售电量 及平均售电价格下降导致售电收入减少， ...