10月15日，央行发布2025年前三季度金融统计数据报告。 M1-M2剪刀差继续收窄，M1增速回升态势明显 权威专家：四季度货币政策仍会适度宽松，财政转向民生是破局关键 金融统计数据报告显示，社会融资规模存量超过430万亿元，M2余额超过330万亿元，人民币存款余 额超过320万亿元，贷款余额超过270万亿元。 有学者研究指出，当前我国经济面临的不是简单的总需求不足，而是需求结构失衡，突出表现为投资过 度而消费不足。 市场权威专家表示，长期以来，每当经济面临需求不足、下行压力加大时，我们总习惯于依靠货币宽松 或扩大政府投资来刺激需求，虽然短期能够起到一定作用，但在中长期会进一步扩大产能供给，加大供 需结构失衡，难以实现经济可持续平稳增长。四季度适度宽松的货币政策仍将保持对实体经济较强的支 持力度，财政政策也在积极发力，财政支出结构转型在这方面可以发挥更大效用，更多地从投资为主转 向改善民生为主。 央行调整金融统计数据新闻稿发布样式 数据显示，9月末，广义货币供应量（M2）余额335.38万亿元，同比增长8.4%；狭义货币供应量 （M1）余额113.15万亿元，同比增长7.2%，增速比今年2月末的年内低点（0. ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, reaching 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The growth rates of social financing and broad money (M2) remained high, indicating that monetary finance continues to create a favorable environment for economic recovery [1] - The narrow money (M1) growth rate showed a significant rebound, reaching 7.2% by the end of September, reflecting increased business activity and consumer demand [1][6] Group 2 - The combination of government and corporate bonds contributed over 40% of the new social financing, with government bond net financing at 11.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - The share of corporate bond financing also increased due to supportive policies and low issuance rates, with net financing reaching 1.57 trillion yuan [3] - The proportion of new social financing from RMB loans decreased to 48%, indicating a shift towards more diversified financing channels [3] Group 3 - Credit growth remained stable, with new RMB loans in September at approximately 1.29 trillion yuan, despite a decrease in growth rate to 6.6% [4] - The structure of loans continued to optimize, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 12.2% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increasing by 8.2% [4] - The average interest rates for new loans remained low, with corporate loans at about 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year [4] Group 4 - The M1 growth rate's increase is attributed to the activation of both corporate and individual deposits, with a notable narrowing of the M1 and M2 "scissors difference" to 1.2 percentage points [6] - The concept of "deposit migration" reflects a reallocation of residents' assets based on changing return rates, with total resident deposits increasing by 12.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [7] - Experts suggest that the monetary policy will continue to support the real economy, with fiscal policies also actively contributing to investment [7]

Core Insights - In September, China's new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 1.29 trillion yuan and new RMB deposits totaling 2.21 trillion yuan. The M2-M1 spread narrowed significantly to 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][2] Monetary Supply - As of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.38 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.4%, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2][5] - The narrow money supply (M1) was recorded at 113.15 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [5] - The cash in circulation (M0) reached 13.58 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [5] Social Financing - The total social financing stock at the end of September was 437.08 trillion yuan, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase [2][4] - The RMB loan balance to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year, while foreign currency loans converted to RMB decreased by 18% [2][4] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first three quarters was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [4] Loan and Deposit Trends - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 1.1 trillion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 13.44 trillion yuan [7] - RMB deposits grew by 22.71 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, with household deposits contributing 12.73 trillion yuan [6] Real Estate Market - The implementation of personal consumption loan subsidies and adjustments in housing purchase policies in major cities have led to a recovery in housing loan demand, with a reported 7% year-on-year increase in housing transaction area in 30 major cities [1][2]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, reaching 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The growth rates of social financing and broad money (M2) remain high, indicating that monetary finance continues to create a favorable environment for economic recovery [1] - The net financing from government bonds reached 11.46 trillion yuan, contributing significantly to the social financing scale, while corporate bond financing also increased due to supportive policies [7] Financial Statistics - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits rose by 22.71 trillion yuan [1] - As of the end of September, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4% [1] - The narrow money (M1) growth rate rose to 7.2% by the end of September, reflecting increased economic activity and consumer demand [6][10] Credit Growth - The growth of new RMB loans in September was stable, with a monthly increase of approximately 1.29 trillion yuan [8] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was about 3.1%, which is 40 basis points lower than the same period last year [9] - The structure of loans continues to optimize, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 12.2% year-on-year [8] Direct Financing - Direct financing, particularly through government and corporate bonds, accounted for over 43% of the new social financing, indicating a shift from traditional bank loans [7] - The proportion of RMB loans in the social financing scale decreased to 48%, highlighting the increasing role of diverse financing channels [7] Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" reflects a reallocation of residents' assets in response to changing return rates, with significant increases in both resident deposits and non-bank financial institution deposits [11] - The overall economic environment remains characterized by low inflation and low interest rates, with expectations for continued monetary support for the real economy [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a supportive monetary environment for economic recovery [1][6]. Financial Statistics - In the first three quarters, the total social financing increased by 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, reaching 30.09 trillion yuan [1]. - RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 22.71 trillion yuan [1]. - As of the end of September, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous year, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%, up 1.5 percentage points [1]. Direct Financing Contribution - Government bonds and corporate bonds contributed over 40% of the new social financing, with net financing from government bonds at 11.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [9]. - Corporate bond financing reached 1.57 trillion yuan, supported by favorable policies and low issuance rates [9]. Loan Growth and Structure - The growth rate of new RMB loans decreased to 6.6% by the end of September, but adjusted for local special bond replacement, the growth rate was approximately 7.7% [11]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 36.09 trillion yuan, growing by 12.2% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector reached 15.02 trillion yuan, up 8.2% [11]. M1 and Economic Activity - M1 growth reached 7.2% by the end of September, significantly up from the low of 0.1% earlier in the year, indicating increased economic activity [14]. - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 reflects improved corporate operations and a recovery in personal investment and consumption demand [14]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Experts suggest that the current macroeconomic environment is characterized by insufficient demand, low inflation, and low interest rates, with future financial impacts on the real economy primarily through interest rate channels [12]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued monetary policy support for the real economy, with fiscal policies also actively contributing to investment [15].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year growth of 8.7% in the total social financing scale as of September 2025, reaching 437.08 trillion yuan [2][3] Group 1: Social Financing Scale - The total social financing scale increased by 30.09 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [4] - The breakdown of financing includes a 14.54 trillion yuan increase in RMB loans to the real economy, a decrease of 946 million yuan in foreign currency loans, and a 2004 million yuan increase in trust loans [4] Group 2: Monetary Supply - The broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase, while narrow money supply (M1) grew by 7.2% to 113.15 trillion yuan [5] - The cash in circulation (M0) increased by 11.5% to 13.58 trillion yuan, with a net cash injection of 761.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters [5] Group 3: Deposits - By the end of September, the total deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies amounted to 332.18 trillion yuan, marking an 8.3% increase year-on-year [6] - RMB deposits specifically increased by 22.71 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, with household deposits rising by 12.73 trillion yuan [6] Group 4: Loans - The total balance of RMB loans reached 270.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, and an increase of 14.75 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [8] - Household loans increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, while corporate loans rose by 13.44 trillion yuan, indicating a strong demand for financing [8] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of September, the national foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.34 trillion USD, with the RMB exchange rate at 7.1055 yuan per USD [10] Group 6: Cross-Border Transactions - In the first three quarters, the cross-border RMB settlement amount reached 13.06 trillion yuan, with direct investment settlements totaling 6.04 trillion yuan [11]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing increased by 30.09 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Summary by Category Loans to the Real Economy - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.54 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 851.2 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 946 million yuan, which is a reduction of 1.117 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Other Financing Methods - Entrusted loans decreased by 572 million yuan, which is a larger decrease of 417 million yuan year-on-year [1] - Trust loans increased by 200.4 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 155.8 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 301.1 billion yuan, which is an increase of 448.7 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Bond and Equity Financing - Net financing through corporate bonds was 1.57 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 151 million yuan year-on-year [1] - Net financing through government bonds was 11.46 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] - Domestic stock financing for non-financial enterprises was 316.8 billion yuan, which is an increase of 146.3 billion yuan year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China is expected to release financial statistics for September, including M2 growth, new RMB loans, and social financing scale, with M2 expected to grow by 8.5% year-on-year, down from 8.8% [1] - New RMB loans for September are anticipated to be 1.375 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 590 billion yuan [1] - The expected increase in social financing scale for September is 3.45 trillion yuan, compared to 2.5668 trillion yuan in the previous month [1] Group 2 - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) is set to publish a global metal supply and demand report, which will be closely monitored for its impact on metal futures prices [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions, with attention on how the results may influence related futures prices [3] Group 4 - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to announce September retail sales data, with a month-on-month increase forecasted at 0.4%, down from 0.6% [4] - Core retail sales for September are projected to rise by 0.3%, a decrease from the previous 0.7% [4] - A slight decline in retail sales data could moderately suppress the prices of commodities, excluding gold and silver [4] Group 5 - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will report on crude oil inventory changes for the week ending October 10, with the previous increase recorded at 3.715 million barrels [5] - An increase in crude oil inventory could hinder the rise in oil and related commodity futures prices [5] Group 6 - The U.S. Department of Commerce will release data on new housing starts and building permits for September, with new housing starts expected to total 1.31 million units, slightly up from 1.307 million units [6] - Building permits are anticipated to be 1.343 million units, an increase from the previous 1.33 million units [6] - A slight increase in new housing starts and building permits could support basic metal futures prices but may suppress gold and silver futures prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" remains unchanged, with signals of policy adjustments being released, emphasizing quality and stability in quantity, while economic downward pressure has increased in the short term. The "anti-involution" trend may become a major factor influencing economic performance in the second half of the year, with short-term economic pressures existing but long-term benefits for high-quality development [2][6][49]. Supply Side - In August 2025, China's industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slowing down by 0.5 percentage points from July, with a cumulative growth of 6.2%, reflecting the impact of summer heat on supply chain disruptions and continued low real estate investment [3][9]. - The manufacturing and high-tech industries showed more stability, indicating resilience in China's industrial transition towards high quality, although global demand uncertainty and extreme weather pose greater constraints on future growth [3][9]. Demand Side - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a phase adjustment in consumption growth due to policy changes [4][13]. - Fixed asset investment from January to August 2025 grew by 0.5% year-on-year, down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a phase adjustment in investment growth due to policy changes [4][15]. - Exports totaled $321.81 billion in August 2025, up 4.4% year-on-year, but down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, with structural changes in exports continuing [4][16]. Price Dynamics - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%, with the decline in PPI narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in industrial product prices [7][23][28]. Monetary and Financial Aspects - In August 2025, the new social financing scale was 25,693 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.3% year-on-year, reflecting seasonal adjustments in credit and off-balance-sheet financing [8][31]. - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 6% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in corporate demand for current deposits and improved economic activity [8][44]. - The broad money supply (M2) remained stable at an 8.8% year-on-year growth rate, reflecting steady monetary supply expansion [8][46]. Future Outlook - The industrial output growth rate for 2025 is expected to stabilize around 6%, slightly down from 6.4% in the first half of the year, with policy support preventing significant declines [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and rising risk appetite. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.23, down 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1146, up 0.001 (+0.01%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, with no change (-0.27%); DR007 was 1.48, down 0.01 (-0.90%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, up 0.01 (+0.63%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.63%) [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures related to the closing price trends, price change rates, capital precipitation trends, position ratios, net position ratios of the top 20, long - short position ratios of the top 20, the spread between government - owned enterprise bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures contracts [13][16][18][22]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows figures on the Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [28][36]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures contracts and the term spreads of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][37][38]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][49][52]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [54][58]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][63]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][74]. 4. Market Analysis 4.1 Macroeconomic Aspects - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The previous bonds issued before this date will remain VAT - exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and increase effective investment [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. 4.2 Capital Aspects - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed, indicating increased capital activity and improved corporate business vitality. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan, with a high proportion of government bond financing, reflecting weak medium - to - long - term corporate financing demand. Deposits increased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly, indicating weakened bank asset expansion power and the economy being in a weak recovery stage [2]. - Central Bank: On September 23, 2025, the central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.462%, 1.567%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4.3 Market Aspects - Closing Prices: On September 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.63 yuan, 107.72 yuan, and 114.32 yuan respectively, with price change rates of - 0.05%, - 0.13%, - 0.21%, and - 0.67% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.007 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, 0.018 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively [2]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].