与此同时，国际金价在5日也有所上涨，但白银的涨幅远远超过黄金。有分析人士表示，这种分化主要 由金银比修复逻辑、白银特有属性及市场情绪共振驱动所致。最近，金银价格比一度升至1比100，相当 于1盎司黄金可以换100盎司白银，已经远远高于历史均值，这一极端比值暗示要么白银被严重低估，要 么黄金被严重高估。此外，从白银的波动率来看，由于白银的市场规模仅为黄金的十分之一，意味着相 当的资金流入往往会引发白银价格更大的波动。 近段时间以来，黄金价格开启高位震荡行情，白银价格的走势也引起市场关注。 6月5日，现货白银日内涨幅一度达到4%，站上每盎司35美元关口，为2012年10月以来首次，今年以来 的涨幅超过21%。与此同时，COMEX白银价格一度突破每盎司36美元。 此外，美联储货币政策对包括黄金与白银在内的贵金属价格影响显著。根据CME"美联储观察"工具的 最新数据，6月降息的概率依然较低，维持利率不变的概率高达99.1%，7月维持利率不变的概率为 75.8%，而9月首次降息的概率也降至54.4%，市场对全年降息次数的预期仍维持在两次。与此同时，美 国最新公布的经济数据表现偏弱，有"小非农"之称的美国ADP就业人数相 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the slight rebound of the US dollar is limiting the upward potential of gold prices, with spot gold trading around $3372.39 [1] - Investors are closely watching the upcoming US non-farm payroll report on June 6 for clues regarding the Federal Reserve's next actions, as this data is a key indicator of labor market health and will directly impact market expectations for Fed monetary policy [1] - A weaker employment report could increase expectations for interest rate cuts, providing stronger support for gold prices, while a surprisingly strong report may exert short-term pressure on gold prices, although overall safe-haven demand is expected to remain high [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis suggests that spot gold is expected to break through the resistance level of $3388 per ounce and rise towards $3408, indicating a fifth wave in a larger upward trend that began at $3245 [1] - Support is identified at $3355, with a potential drop below this level leading to prices falling within the range of $3322 to $3344, which would indicate a reversal of the upward trend since $3245 [2] - If gold prices break through $3408 per ounce, they could potentially rise to $3440 per ounce, with the daily chart showing a breakthrough of the resistance level at $3361 per ounce [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by economic instability in the U.S., particularly due to unexpected contraction in the services sector and disappointing employment data, alongside geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9, marking the first drop below the 50 threshold since June 2024, indicating contraction in the services sector, which constitutes two-thirds of the U.S. economy [3]. - The ADP national employment report showed only 37,000 jobs added in May, significantly below the expected 110,000, representing the smallest increase in over two years [3]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - The combination of shrinking services and weak ADP employment data has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with prices reaching as high as $1,384 per ounce following the data release [3]. - Market sentiment is leaning towards a potential rise in gold prices, with expectations that the upcoming non-farm payroll report could further influence Federal Reserve monetary policy and support gold prices [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming non-farm payroll report on June 6 for insights into the labor market and potential implications for Federal Reserve actions, which could either bolster or pressure gold prices depending on the report's strength [4]. - The European Central Bank's anticipated interest rate cut and ongoing international trade tensions are also expected to provide support for gold prices in the medium to long term [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 and the previous month's figure of 62,000, marking the lowest level since March 2023 [1][6] - The report indicates that the majority of new jobs were in the service sector, particularly in leisure and hospitality, while manufacturing jobs decreased by 3,000 [6] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies is cited as a major factor contributing to the reduced demand for hiring, with companies hesitant to recruit new employees [3][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book reported a decline in labor demand, reduced working hours, hiring freezes, and plans for layoffs across all regions [8] - The term "tariffs" appeared 122 times in the Beige Book, indicating a strong focus on how tariff policies are increasing economic uncertainty [12] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the current economic challenges are not a result of the Fed's monetary policy, which complicates the decision to lower interest rates [12]

周三现货黄金市场再次走V型反转走势，因国际经济环境的不稳定，特朗普政府新关税政策的冲击以及美国服务业意外萎缩，就业数据的低迷，使得市场投 资者纷纷涌入避险市场，现货黄金市场昨日触底反弹，最低至3343.86美元/盎司，最高至3384.71美元/盎司，最终收盘于3372.60美元/盎司。 现货白银市场 若市场价格跌破34.170美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为33.700-33.300美元/盎司。 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于高位震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3369.00-3385.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛低吸。 若后市市场下破3369.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3359.00-3349.00美元/盎司。 若后市市场上破3385.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3395.00-3405.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司空间） 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间34.170-34.570，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低吸。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向 ...

美联储政策路径的不确定性正在上升。 今日凌晨，美联储发布的最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（简称《褐皮书》）显示，近期美国经济活动略有下 降，表明关税和高度不确定性正在对经济产生广泛影响。《褐皮书》警告称，美国经济前景"略显悲观且不确 定"。 与此同时，最新发布的经济指标也传来危险信号。美东时间6月4日，ISM公布的数据显示，美国5月ISM服务 业PMI指数49.9，大幅不及预期的52。分析指出，这表明美国关税政策正在对需求和通胀产生更明显的影响。 目前交易员们正在加大力度对冲美联储利率路径剧变的风险。美国经济前景的不确定性，促使交易员交易员购 买期权以应对多种可能结果：从全年完全不降息到2025年年内连续降息、每次50个基点。 另据最新消息，美国参议院投票，确认鲍曼出任美联储负责金融监管事务副主席的提名资格。 关于通胀问题，《褐皮书》指出，美国物价正"以温和速度上涨"。 此外，有广泛的报告称，联系人预计未来成本和价格将以更快的速度上升。有些地区预计这些上涨将是强劲 的、显著的或实质性的。 报告指出，有计划将关税相关成本转嫁给消费者的企业，预计将在三个月内实施。 不过，企业对物价上涨的预期存在差异，部分企业表示可 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. job market has experienced a significant slowdown, with hiring rates dropping to the lowest level in two years, far below economists' expectations, leading to increased rate cut predictions [1][3] - In May, ADP reported an increase of only 37,000 jobs, which is the lowest since March 2023 and significantly below the expected 114,000 jobs, with the previous month's figure at 62,000 [1][3] - The data indicates a notable decline in employer demand for new employees, contrasting with the relatively stable job growth observed in previous months [3] Group 2 - Key industries such as business services, education, and healthcare are experiencing layoffs, while trade, transportation, and manufacturing are also reducing positions; only the leisure and hospitality sector and financial activities are seeing job growth, which is insufficient to offset declines in other sectors [3] - Wage growth has stagnated, with salary increases for job switchers at 7% and for retained employees at only 4.5% [4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth compared to April, with the unemployment rate remaining stable; however, the ADP data raises concerns about potential policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [6]

黄金方面： 原油方面： 经合组织（OECD）发布的报告显示，特朗普的关税政策正在对美国经济造成巨大的压力，经济放缓的程度可能超过此前的预 期。有消息显示特朗普可能在本周与东方大国领导人举行会谈，贸易局势有望缓解。 另一方面，俄乌冲突局势升级，据报道，乌克兰利用无人机袭击了俄罗斯的多处军事基地，并炸毁了多架重要战机，有评论说 远超当年"珍珠岛袭击事件"。标志着俄乌冲突升级，短期内停火的可能性大幅降低。 百利好特约智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，近几日俄乌局势急转直下，美国与伊朗的谈判陷入泥潭，地缘风险升温，油价 走强的迹象越发明显。 技术面：原油近期维持60-64美元区间震荡，多空方向不明，60美元的关键位置多次均未跌破，本周有望进一步走高。小时图来 看，周一（6月2日）上涨之后维持高位震荡，日内即有望冲高，上方可以看向64.80美元一线。 日经225方面： 最新公布的美国4月职位空缺数据显示，录得739.1万人，预期为710万人，前值为720万人，利空黄金，亮眼的职位空缺显示美国 就业强劲，不过裁员人数大增19.6万人，创9个月以来的最大增幅；同时公布的美国4月工厂订单月率显示-3.7%，预期为-3.1%， ...

沪铅产业日报 2025-06-04 价格有一定支撑，但沪铅价格受到需求减弱影响继续承压下跌，库存方面虽有下滑，但海外库存依旧较高 免责声明 ，铅价承压明显，后续注意关税政策变化带来的新增影响。从技术面看目前正在走三角形整理结构，今日 有小幅反弹，操作上建议，短期可以考虑多头，中长线逢高空为主。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16670 | 100 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1981 | 17 | | | 07-08月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | 0 | -10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 90698 | 4827 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1338 | 236 沪铅仓单(日,吨 ...

短线来看，伦敦金上涨，目前交投于3370.93美元/盎司，涨幅0.54%，最高上探3372.25美元/盎司，最低 触及3346.09美元/盎司。今日下方关注3342美元或3327美元附近支撑；上方关注3380美元或3410美元附 近阻力。 美国彭博社分析称，由于美国职位空缺数量意外增加，提振了风险偏好情绪并帮助美元走强，金价周二 下跌。尽管受到美国总统特朗普关税议程的威胁，但职位空缺数量的增加鼓舞了投资者，他们认为美国 经济仍保持韧性。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主任David Meger说："我们走到这个众所周知的夏季低迷时期，投资人普遍 预料，黄金市场可能陷入低迷，或是开始盘整。" 彭博社称，展望未来，美国就业指标(包括周五的5月份非农就业报告)可能有助于引导美联储的货币政 策。较低的利率通常对无息黄金有利。 周三（6月4日）本交易日伦敦金日内维持震荡走势，目前交投于3370.93美元/盎司，涨幅0.54%，今日 金价开盘报3351.24美元/盎司，最高上探3372.25美元/盎司，最低触及3346.09美元/盎司。 美国劳工统计局周二发布的《职位空缺与劳动力流动调查报告》(JOLTS) ...