Core Viewpoint - A panic sell-off has swept through the global precious metals market, leading to significant declines in both silver and gold prices. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Spot silver experienced a drastic intraday drop of 34.67%, falling from above $110/oz to $75.38/oz [1] - Spot gold saw an intraday decline of 12.41%, decreasing from $5400/oz to $4709.68/oz [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market faced a broad decline, with the Nasdaq down 1.22%, the Dow Jones dropping over 1%, and the S&P 500 falling by 0.92% [4] - The market is closely monitoring the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has raised concerns about monetary policy direction and the independence of the Fed [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggest that the gold bull market may not be over, despite current price volatility [6] - The expectation is that the Fed may slow down its easing pace by early 2026 due to rising inflation and improving economic growth, which could temporarily pressure gold prices [6] - The future bull market for gold is anticipated to be volatile, influenced by Fed policies and U.S. economic trends, with silver expected to experience even greater price fluctuations due to its smaller market size [6]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan expresses confidence in Kevin Walsh, the new Fed Chair nominee, to effectively lead the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee [1][3]. Group 1: Leadership and Expectations - Milan believes Walsh's prior experience and understanding of the institution will enable him to integrate necessary arguments and evidence to persuade others to accept his policy proposals [1][3]. - Milan anticipates that the White House will appoint Walsh to the Federal Reserve Board using his vacant seat [1][3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Milan disagrees with the Fed's recent decision to maintain current interest rates, advocating for a significant reduction in rates, suggesting a slowdown to 25 basis points per meeting [1][3]. - He expresses skepticism regarding inflation data that exceeds the Fed's target by nearly one percentage point, attributing this to specific measurement habits related to housing and portfolio management fees [1][3]. Group 3: Inflation Analysis - Milan argues that much of the perceived inflation is "false inflation" due to technical issues in how inflation is measured, particularly concerning housing [1][3]. - He notes that once adjustments are made, the core inflation, excluding housing, is approximately 2.2%, which is close to the Fed's target, indicating no real inflation problem [1][3].

沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立 场。该消息发布后，市场迅速聚焦其货币政策取向及美联储独立性问题。市场普遍认为，美联储未来一年降息幅度大致集中在50个基点至100个基点之 间。 中金公司分析指出，由于美联储政策与美国经济尚未出现拐点，因此黄金牛市可能并未结束。但在黄金价格已经脱离基本面指标与模型拟合后，市场波动 或明显增大，具体点位预测难度较高，建议淡化黄金价格点位预测，更关注资产趋势改变时点。 中金公司预期在2026年初，由于美国通胀持续上行，美国增长边际改善，美联储可能放缓宽松节奏，或对黄金表现形成阶段性压制。但是再往前看，随着 2026年5月新的美联储主席就职，2026下半年美国通胀迎来下行拐点，美联储可能再次加速降息，为黄金继续上涨提供新的支持。因此未来黄金牛市可能 不是单边行情，而会跟随美联储政策与美国经济动向出现波动。"上述逻辑同样适用于白银等商品。由于白银的市场规模更小，流动性相对更低，价格波 动幅度可能会大于黄金。" 北京时间1月31日凌晨，恐慌性抛售席卷全球贵金属市场。 截至发稿，现货白银 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Kevin Walsh has been nominated by President Trump to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, potentially replacing Jerome Powell whose term ends in May 2024 [1] - Walsh has a background in investment banking and served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, being a key figure during the 2008 financial crisis [1] - His recent shift towards supporting lower interest rates and reforms in the Federal Reserve's operations indicates a potential change in monetary policy direction [2] Group 2: Policy Stance - Walsh was previously a proponent of free trade but has recently aligned with Trump's tariff policies and calls for quicker interest rate cuts [2] - He has criticized the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy since the financial crisis and has stated that the refusal to lower rates was a significant mistake [2] - His current stance favors lower interest rates and comprehensive reforms to reduce the Fed's balance sheet and ease bank regulations, which contrasts with typical rate-cutting cycles [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Uncertainties - Analysts suggest that Walsh's nomination may not lead to aggressive rate cuts, as he is perceived to be less dovish compared to other candidates [3] - The market's reaction to Walsh's nomination remains uncertain, especially given his recent alignment with the Trump administration [3] - There are concerns regarding the approval of Walsh's nomination in the Senate, particularly in light of ongoing investigations into Powell, which have led some Republican senators to express opposition to any Fed-related nominations until these issues are resolved [3]

美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒（Christopher Waller）周五表示，他之所以对美联储本周维持利率不变的 决策持反对意见，原因是经济数据释放出需要进一步降息的信号。 特朗普在当日早些时候宣布，计划提名前美联储理事凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh），在鲍威尔5月主席任 期结束后接替其职位。 谈及沃什时，博斯蒂克表示："实际上我与他的交集并不多，只听说他是一位思维缜密的人，也是一个 能与之深入交流的对象。" 沃勒还解释称，剔除美国总统特朗普加征关税的影响后，美国当前的通胀水平已接近美联储2%的政策 目标，这也是他支持降息的关键依据。 与之相反，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔・博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）则表示，当前高企的通胀水平意味 着，美联储应暂缓再次降息。 博斯蒂克周五在接受CNBC采访时称："我们应当选择等待，保持更多耐心。目前美国的通胀水平仍处 于过高状态，因此货币政策仍需保持一定的限制性。" 美联储主席鲍威尔本周在利率决议后的新闻发布会上表示，近期经济数据显示，此前持续走高的失业率 已出现企稳迹象，因此1月维持利率的决策获得了政策制定者的广泛支持。 博斯蒂克周五呼应了这一观点："我确实认为， ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from Deutsche Bank, Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz, suggest that Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve chair nominee by Trump, will initially focus on building consensus within the Fed before gradually implementing further interest rate cuts starting mid-2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The current strong performance of the U.S. economy makes Trump's call for "the lowest interest rates in the world" unlikely to be adopted [1] - There is a possibility that the Fed's monetary policy may become excessively accommodative, which could be disconnected from the current economic fundamentals [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Reforms - Warsh advocates for reforms within the Federal Reserve, and his stance on defending the Fed's independence may differ from previous chairs, potentially increasing inflation risks [1]

Let's bring in Kevin Green, senior markets correspondent, right away to help set up the action today. All right, KG, let's start out with the pick. Uh Kevin Walsh has been named uh by President Trump.It started in a true social post. Uh did this surprise you at all. >> Not really a surprise.Obviously, we had four candidates kind of coming into this and we did see a little bit of a rotation in the Kawashi markets and these betting markets over the last week, week and a half where Rick Reer actually did catch ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts in January 2026 is a neutral - slightly dovish move, continuing the liquidity - stabilizing framework. The meeting indicates an improved economic situation, and while rate hikes are off the table, future rate cuts may be considered if uncertainties decline. The weakening dollar situation remains unresolved, and the market should focus on the continuity of the weak dollar, geopolitical situations, and domestic economic policy directions [1][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Pre - meeting Concerns - The market widely expected the Fed to pause rate cuts in the January meeting. Data showed labor market cooling, lower - than - expected inflation, and economic resilience, all of which supported this view [2]. - Market expectations for Japan's expansionary fiscal policy, along with geopolitical and policy factors, led to a weaker dollar. Key meeting focuses include Powell's stance and signals about the next rate cut. The Fed's independence and the chairmanship nomination are also important issues [4]. Meeting Content - Compared with the December statement, the January statement showed a more optimistic view on the economy and employment, with a minor change in the inflation description. There were also differences in voting among Fed members, with some expressing more dovish stances [5]. - Powell emphasized in the press conference that inflation and employment risks have subsided to some extent, ruling out rate hikes and stating conditions for future rate cuts. He also mentioned his own tenure, Fed independence, and did not comment on the weak dollar [7]. Market Outlook - After the meeting, U.S. stocks and bonds changed little, the dollar rebounded slightly, and precious metals remained strong. Future macro - trends should be observed from three aspects: the continuity of the weak dollar and Fed chairmanship issues, the development of the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation, and the direction of domestic economic policies [10]. - The overall pattern of a strong RMB remains unchanged, and the macro - liquidity environment for financial assets is positive. The existing market structure may continue but could be affected by geopolitical and economic policy factors [11].

截至发稿时，在新浪财经发起的"特朗普会任命谁为美联储主席？"有奖社区调查中，前美联储理事凯 文・沃什以96%的绝对得票率遥遥领先，成为市场预期中最可能获任的人选。 本次投票自启动以来吸引了超1800名财经用户参与，从票仓分布来看，凯文・沃什以1786票的压倒性优 势领跑，其余候选人支持率均不足2%；里克・里德获21票（1%），克里斯托弗・沃勒获15票（1%）， 另有40票（2%）投向"其他人选或一月前不公布结果"选项。 市场分析人士指出，凯文・沃什的高支持率与其履历深度相关：他曾在2006-2010年担任美联储理事， 兼具货币政策制定与金融监管经验，且其偏鹰派的立场与当前美国通胀背景下的政策需求高度契合，同 时他与特朗普团队的过往政策共识也强化了市场对其获任的预期。 若沃什最终获任，市场普遍预期美联储货币政策或延续偏紧基调，这将直接传导至美股、美债及美元汇 率走势。当前市场预期已引发部分交易员提前调整头寸，押注政策转向带来的市场波动。 本次投票活动将于今日晚些时候正式截止，参与用户可通过积累活动热度赢取财经日历、京东卡等奖 励。平台后续将同步跟踪特朗普动态，第一时间为用户带来权威解读与行情分析。 截至发稿时， ...

来源 | 环球网 特朗普 资料图 图源：美媒 当天早些时候，特朗普曾在内阁会议上表示，他将在下周公布美联储下一任主席的提名人选。 特朗普当天还在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔"再次拒绝降息"，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于 最低水平。特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将"干得不错"，美联储目前利率"高得不可接受"。 来源：环球时报 特朗普改口：将于30日公布美联储下任主席提名 据路透社报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间29日表示，将于周五（30日）上午公布美国联邦储备委员会下 一任主席提名人选。 "我将于明天上午宣布美联储主席人选。"特朗普在肯尼迪中心说。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名 连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔，并威胁解除鲍威 尔职务。根据美国法定程序，美联储主席由美国总统提名人选，经国会参议院批准后任职。 ...