隐含波动率
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金属期权策略早报-20250825
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:43
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a metal options strategy morning report dated August 25, 2025, covering有色金属, precious metals, and black metals [1][2] - The overall strategy suggestions are to construct a seller neutral volatility strategy for non - ferrous metals in a weak shock, a short - volatility combination strategy for black metals with large fluctuations, and a spot hedging strategy for precious metals in a high - level consolidation [2] Group 2: Market Overview Futures Market - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts are presented. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2510) is 79,120, up 420 (0.53%); the latest price of aluminum (AL2510) is 20,755, up 85 (0.41%) [3] Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of copper is 0.73, down 0.04; the open interest PCR is 0.85, down 0.02 [4] - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of copper is 80,000 and the support point is 78,000 [5] - **Implied Volatility**: It includes at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. For example, the weighted implied volatility of copper is 15.17%, up 0.50% [6] Group 3: Strategy Suggestions for Different Metals Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The fundamental situation shows that the inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.04 million tons. The option strategy suggests constructing a short - volatility seller option combination strategy and a spot long - position hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum/Alumina**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons last week. The option strategy includes constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc/Lead**: Zinc concentrate port and factory inventories are given. The option strategy is to construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: The spot market shows that traders have a strong willingness to hold prices. The option strategy includes constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy [10] - **Tin**: The terminal demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased significantly. The option strategy is to construct a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The domestic weekly inventory decreased by 0.5%. The option strategy includes constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position hedging strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Powell's speech indicates the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle. The option strategy for gold is to construct a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: The social and factory inventories of rebar increased. The option strategy includes constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position covered call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased. The option strategy is to construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, the production increased and the inventory decreased. The option strategy is to construct a short - volatility strategy [14] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon inventory remained high. The option strategy includes constructing a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: The total inventory of float glass enterprises increased. The option strategy is to construct a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position collar strategy [15] Group 4: Charts - There are price trend charts, option trading volume and open interest charts, option factor charts (such as PCR, implied volatility) for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. These charts visually present the market conditions and option factors of each metal [18][20][26]
隐波上升,情绪持续升温
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:43
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The implied volatility of financial options has risen, and market sentiment has continued to heat up. The trading volume of 50ETF options has increased significantly compared to the previous week, and the put - call trading ratio has decreased, while the put - call holding ratio has increased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Financial Option Data - 50ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1.9067 million contracts this week, a 20.55% increase from the previous week. The put - call trading ratio was 0.64, lower than the historical average, and the put - call holding ratio last week was 1.19, higher than the historical average [1][4]. - Huatai - Baorui 300ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1.8624 million contracts and an average daily holding volume of 1.5178 million contracts [1][4]. - Southern China Securities 500ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 2.3846 million contracts and an average daily holding volume of 1.5008 million contracts [1][4]. - Huaxia Shanghai - Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 2.1747 million contracts and an average daily holding volume of 2.0811 million contracts [1][4]. - Shenzhen 100ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 189,900 contracts and an average daily holding volume of 164,000 contracts [1][4]. - GEM ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 2.9074 million contracts and an average daily holding volume of 1.9249 million contracts [1][4]. - CSI 300 index options had an average daily trading volume of 134,600 lots and an average daily holding volume of 162,000 lots [1][4]. - CSI 1000 index options had an average daily trading volume of 317,000 lots and an average daily holding volume of 253,000 lots [1][4]. 3.2 Volatility - As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 19.30%, a 1.29% increase from a week ago [2][5]. - The implied volatility of 50ETF options was 19.78%, a 3.60% increase from a week ago [2][5]. - The implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 26.01%, a 4.72% increase from a week ago [2][5].
3.4 万张 BTC 期权和 22 万张 ETH 期权到期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 07:52
吴说获悉,据 Greekslive,3.4 万张 BTC 期权到期,Put Call Ratio 为 1.3,最大痛点 118000 美元,名义 价值 38.2 亿美元。22 万张 ETH 期权到期,Put Call Ratio 为 0.82,最大痛点 4250 美元,名义价值 9.5 亿美元。本周有近 50 亿美元的期权交割,占到当前总持仓的 8%。从主要的期权数据看,隐含波动率 方面均有明显反弹,BTC 的中短期限 IV 全面回升至 35% 以上,ETH 的主要期限 IV 未持证 70%,短期 IV 突破了 80%。 来源:市场资讯 (来源:吴说) ...
波动率数据日报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 06:43
Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Its Calculation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the IV of the two strike - prices above and below the at - the - money option of the front - month contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the front - month contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Difference Graph - The document presents graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. The volatility spread is calculated as the IV index minus the historical volatility [4] - The implied volatility quantile rankings are provided for different options, such as 50ETF with a quantile of 0.79, 300 - stock index with 0.80, iron ore with 0.37, PVC with 0.46, etc [5][7]
商品期权数据日报-20250822
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents data on commodity options, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and provides strategy recommendations for different commodities based on their current volatility levels [3][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Commodity Historical Volatility - Various commodities' historical volatility data (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) and daily price changes are presented, such as for沪铝 (20590, 49%, 10.13%, 6%, 8%, 9%, 11%),沪铜 (78540, -0.05%, 6.52%, 7%, 10%, 9%, 16%), etc. [3] Commodity Implied Volatility - Data on implied volatility, including主力平值IV and主力平值IV分位值, are provided for different commodities like氧化铝 (62%, 20%, 55%),二烯橡胶 (41%, 88%), etc. [5] Strategy Recommendations - For碳酸锂, recommend selling a wide - straddle (卖出LC2509C80000 + 卖HLC2509P75000) on 2025.7.24 as its volatility is relatively high [9]. - For铁矿石,豆油, and菜油, recommend buying wide - straddles on 2025.6.3 as their volatilities are relatively low. For example, for铁矿石, buy 头入I2509C690 + 头入12509P700 [9].
农产品期权策略早报-20250822
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:50
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on agricultural product options dated August 22, 2025 [1] - The report analyzes the futures market conditions of various agricultural product options, including soybean, soybean meal, palm oil, etc [3] - It provides options strategies and suggestions for different agricultural product sectors, such as oilseeds and oils, livestock and poultry products, and soft commodities [7][11][13] Group 2: Market Conditions Futures Market - Most agricultural product futures showed fluctuations, with some rising and some falling. For example, palm oil rose 0.50%, while egg fell 2.21% [3] - The trading volume and open interest of different futures contracts also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3] Options Factors - The PCR indicators of options, including volume PCR and open interest PCR, were used to describe the strength and turning points of the underlying market [4] - The pressure and support levels of the underlying assets were analyzed from the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5] - The implied volatility of options was also studied, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc [6] Group 3: Sector - Specific Analysis Oilseeds and Oils - **Soybean**: The USDA adjusted the planting area and yield of US soybeans, affecting the market. The option implied volatility remained high, and the underlying market was weakly volatile. Strategies included selling a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase volume of soybean meal showed a certain pattern. The market showed a weak consolidation and then a rebound. Options strategies included selling a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The USDA report and the inventory situation affected the market. Palm oil showed a bullish trend. Strategies included a bullish call spread, selling a bullish call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy [10] - **Peanut**: The spot price and inventory situation affected the market. The market was weakly consolidated. Strategies included a bearish put spread and a long collar strategy [11] Livestock and Poultry Products - **Pig**: The supply and demand situation affected the market. The market was weakly consolidated. Strategies included selling a bearish call + put option combination and a long - call writing strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens affected the market. The market was bearish. Strategies included a bearish put spread, selling a bearish call + put option combination [12] - **Apple**: The cold - storage inventory affected the market. The market showed a warming - up trend. Strategies included selling a neutral call + put option combination [12] - **Jujube**: The inventory and market trading atmosphere affected the market. The market was bullish. Strategies included a bullish call spread, selling a bullish strangle option combination, and a long - call writing strategy for spot hedging [13] Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: The sugar - cane crushing and production data in Brazil affected the market. The market was bearish. Strategies included selling a bearish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy [13] - **Cotton**: The spinning and weaving factory operating rates and inventory affected the market. The market was weakly bullish. Strategies included selling a bullish call + put option combination and a long - call writing strategy for spot hedging [14] Grains - **Corn and Starch**: The USDA report on corn affected the market. The market was bearish. Strategies included a bearish put spread and selling a bearish call + put option combination [14]
金属期权策略早报-20250822
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:50
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a metal options strategy morning report dated August 22, 2025 [1] - The core view is to provide option strategy suggestions for different metal sectors, including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals [2] Group 2: Market Overview Futures Market - Copper (CU2510) latest price is 78,710, up 140 (0.18%), volume 3.60 million lots, open interest 14.34 million lots [3] - Aluminum (AL2510) latest price is 20,720, up 120 (0.58%), volume 12.45 million lots, open interest 23.39 million lots [3] - And so on for other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, etc. Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - Copper: volume PCR is 0.77, down 0.16; open interest PCR is 0.87, down 0.01 [4] - Aluminum: volume PCR is 0.79, down 0.47; open interest PCR is 0.93, up 0.02 [4] Pressure and Support Levels - Copper: pressure point is 82,000, support point is 78,000 [5] - Aluminum: pressure point is 20,800, support point is 20,000 [5] Implied Volatility - Copper: flat - implied volatility is 8.46%, weighted implied volatility is 14.67%, up 1.67% [6] - Aluminum: flat - implied volatility is 8.86%, weighted implied volatility is 12.10%, up 0.03% [6] Group 3: Strategy and Suggestions Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Fundamental: three major exchanges' copper inventory increased by 0.7 million tons [7] - Market analysis: since June, it has been in a high - level consolidation [7] - Option strategy: build a short - volatility seller option portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [7] Aluminum/Alumina - Fundamental: domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, while保税区 inventory decreased [9] - Market analysis: showed a high - level shock and decline [9] - Option strategy: build a neutral short - volatility option combination and a spot collar strategy [9] Other Non - Ferrous Metals - Similar analysis and strategy suggestions are provided for zinc, lead, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate [9][10][11] Precious Metals Gold/Silver - Fundamental: US CPI data is provided [12] - Market analysis: gold showed a short - term consolidation and decline [12] - Option strategy: build a neutral short - volatility option seller combination and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals Rebar - Fundamental: rebar social inventory and factory inventory increased [13] - Market analysis: showed a downward trend with pressure [13] - Option strategy: build a bearish option spread strategy and a short - volatility option combination [13] Other Black Metals - Similar analysis and strategy suggestions are provided for iron ore, ferroalloys, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and glass [13][14][15]
农产品期权策略早报-20250821
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:39
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on agricultural product options dated August 21, 2025 [1] - The agricultural product sector is divided into beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others, with option strategies provided for selected varieties in each sector [8] Group 2: Market Conditions Summary - Oilseeds and oils showed a weak and volatile trend, while oils, agricultural by - products maintained a volatile market. Soft commodity sugar had a slight fluctuation, cotton was in a weak consolidation, and grains like corn and starch had a weak and narrow - range consolidation [2] Group 3: Futures Market Data - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various option - underlying futures contracts are presented, such as the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) being 4,024 with a change of 2 and a trading volume of 13.90 million lots [3] Group 4: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4] Group 5: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various option - underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Group 6: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes compared with the annual average [6] Group 7: Option Strategies for Different Varieties Oils and Oilseeds Options - **Beans (Soybean No.1, Soybean No.2)**: For soybean No.1, due to factors like the USDA's adjustment of soybean planting area and Trump's call for China to buy soybeans, the market showed a weak and volatile trend. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Bean Meal, Rapeseed Meal**: Bean meal showed a weak consolidation and then a rebound. Strategies involve constructing a neutral short call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil showed a bullish trend. Strategies include constructing a bull call spread for directional gain, a short bullish call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanuts**: Peanuts showed a weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Strategies include constructing a bear put spread for directional gain and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Agricultural By - product Options - **Pigs**: The pig market showed a weak consolidation. Strategies include constructing a short bearish call + put option combination and a long - spot + short out - of - the - money call option strategy [11] - **Eggs**: The egg market showed a bearish trend. Strategies include constructing a bear put spread for directional gain and a short bearish call + put option combination [12] - **Apples**: Apples showed a warming - up trend. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination [12] - **Jujubes**: Jujubes showed a short - term bullish rebound. Strategies include constructing a bull call spread for directional gain, a short bullish strangle option combination, and a long - spot + short out - of - the - money call option strategy [13] Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: Sugar showed a weak bearish market. Strategies include constructing a short bearish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton**: Cotton showed a short - term weak trend. Strategies include constructing a short bullish call + put option combination and a long - spot + long put + short out - of - the - money call option strategy [14] Grain Options - **Corn, Starch**: Corn showed a weak bearish trend. Strategies include constructing a bear put spread for directional gain, a short bearish call + put option combination [14]
金属期权策略早报-20250821
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:39
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the metal options industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals are in a weak and volatile state, and a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended. - The black metals show significant fluctuations, and a short - volatility portfolio strategy is suitable. - The precious metals are consolidating at high levels with a slight decline, and a spot hedging strategy is advised [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - **Copper (CU2510)**: The latest price is 78,700, up 150 (0.19%). The trading volume is 4.84 million lots (up 2.48 million lots), and the open interest is 13.98 million lots (up 0.18 million lots) [3]. - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: The latest price is 20,565, up 75 (0.37%). The trading volume is 12.82 million lots (up 2.30 million lots), and the open interest is 22.80 million lots (down 0.67 million lots) [3]. - Other metals such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., also have detailed price, trading volume, and open - interest data provided in the report [3]. 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **Copper**: The volume PCR is 0.93 (up 0.19), and the open - interest PCR is 0.88 (up 0.07) [4]. - **Aluminum**: The volume PCR is 1.26 (up 0.09), and the open - interest PCR is 0.91 (unchanged) [4]. 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Copper**: The pressure point is 80,000, and the support point is 78,000 [5]. - **Aluminum**: The pressure point is 20,800, and the support point is 20,000 [5]. 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Copper**: The at - the - money implied volatility is 8.38%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.00% (down 0.73%) [6]. - **Aluminum**: The at - the - money implied volatility is 9.10%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.07% (down 0.58%) [6]. 3.5. Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals (e.g., Copper)**: - **Fundamentals**: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 million tons, with the SHFE inventory increasing by 0.4 million tons to 8.6 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Since June, it has shown a bullish trend, with a high - level consolidation pattern since August [7]. - **Option Strategy**: Build a short - volatility seller's option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Precious Metals (e.g., Gold)**: - **Fundamentals**: The US CPI and core CPI data in July have different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Shanghai gold has been in a high - level consolidation and decline recently [12]. - **Option Strategy**: Construct a neutral short - volatility option seller's portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Black Metals (e.g., Rebar)**: - **Fundamentals**: The social inventory of rebar increased by 6.8% week - on - week, and the factory inventory increased by 2.4% week - on - week [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Since June, it has been in a low - level consolidation and then a rebound, followed by a decline recently [13]. - **Option Strategy**: Build a bear - spread option strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot long - covered call strategy [13].
华西证券:行情继续上涨情况下,若隐含波动率缓慢回落,市场上涨速度可能放缓
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 00:23
Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a contraction in volume and a significant convergence in implied volatility, indicating potential future trends in market behavior [1] Market Outlook - In a scenario where the market continues to rise, a rapid increase in implied volatility should be monitored to avoid adjustment risks due to a surge in speculative activity [1] - A gradual decline in implied volatility suggests that the pace of market increases may slow down, potentially maintaining the status observed in July [1] Downward Market Scenario - If the market declines and implied volatility rises quickly, it indicates a rapid spread of pessimistic sentiment, suggesting opportunities to speculate on stabilization when the market steadies [1] - A slow decrease in implied volatility during a downturn points to a potential "sluggish decline," warranting careful observation for entry timing [1]