Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US indices rising: Dow Jones +2.3%, S&P 500 +1.7%, and Nasdaq +1.6%[2] - European indices had varied results, with the UK FTSE 100 and France's CAC40 rising, while Germany's DAX index slightly declined[2] Economic Indicators - US manufacturing remains weak, with June PMI at 49, indicating contraction for four consecutive months[2] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June was 50.8, slightly above expectations, indicating slow expansion in the service sector[2] Legislative Developments - The OBBBA Act passed with a vote of 218:214, raising concerns about a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the deficit from 2026 to 2035[2] - The act aims to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent while tightening social welfare eligibility and eliminating certain subsidies[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data reduced the likelihood of a July interest rate cut from 23.8% to 6.7%[2] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted from three to two for the year, with inflation data becoming increasingly critical[2] Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day, which could impact oil prices and inflation[2] - Oil price fluctuations are expected to play a significant role in shaping inflation trends and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations[2] Investment Strategy - With US stocks reaching new highs, potential risks include tariff negotiations and oil price volatility, which could lead to significant market corrections[2] - Continued upward movement in US stocks requires favorable outcomes from trade negotiations and declining oil prices[2] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[2]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves have increased, with the central bank continuously adding to its gold reserves for eight consecutive months [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 33,174 billion USD, an increase of 3.22 billion USD from the end of May, marking a rise of 0.98% [1]. - The foreign exchange reserves have remained above 32,000 billion USD for 19 consecutive months and have shown a month-on-month increase for six months [1][3]. - In the first half of 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 66.79 million USD, 1.82 billion USD, 1.3441 billion USD, 4.1 billion USD, 360 million USD, and 3.22 billion USD respectively [3]. Group 2: Gold Reserves - The central bank's gold reserves stood at 7,390 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) at the end of June, with a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces (approximately 2.18 tons) [1]. - The global demand for gold has seen a surge, with central banks net purchasing 244 tons in the first quarter of 2025, despite a slight slowdown compared to the previous quarter [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing volatility, with mixed sentiments among investors due to ongoing tariff negotiations and delayed expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may continue to delay interest rate cuts, which could negatively impact gold prices, while the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong amid fluctuating U.S. policies [7][8]. - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 from 3,015 USD to 3,215 USD per ounce, while Citigroup has a bearish outlook, expecting prices to drop to between 2,500 and 2,700 USD per ounce by the second quarter of 2026 [7][8].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 07 月 07 日 各国关税谈判进展如何？ ——政策专题（0707） 随着特朗普政府设定的关键期限临近，全球主要经济体正与美国进行高强度关 税谈判。从各国谈判情况来看，英国、越南已与美国达成协议；印度、柬埔寨、 欧盟预期将与美国达成框架协议/小型协议并在关键期限后进一步谈判；印尼、 泰国、马来西亚仍与美国积极谈判中；日本、韩国谈判进展相对缓慢。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《整治"内卷式"竞争政策 组合的回顾与展望———政策 专题（0701）》2025-07-02 2、《历史上，我国出台过哪些 促消费政策？———扩内需政 策研究专题（一）》2025-04-07 3、《历史上的财税体制改革回 顾——政策专题》2024-06-03 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 S1090525040003 guojiayi@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 已达成协议：英国是最早与美国达成协议的国家。5 月 8 日，英国与美国宣 布达成贸易协议，即美英经济繁荣协议（EPD）。6 月 16 日，特朗 ...

印尼官员：与美国关税谈判的主要谈判代表定于7月7日前往美国。 ...

日本内阁官房副长官青木一彦证实，日美关税谈判仍在积极进行，日本仍致力于寻求达成互惠互利的协 议。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home appliance industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Hisense Home Appliances, Supor, and others [2]. Core Insights - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is expected to benefit companies with production capacity in Vietnam, as tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US have significantly decreased from 46% to 20% [1]. - The US labor market data indicates a mixed outlook, with a decrease in ADP employment numbers and a slight drop in the unemployment rate, which may increase the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1]. Industry Scale - The home appliance industry consists of 88 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,835.5 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,748.9 billion [3]. Key Company Financials - Midea Group: Market Cap 563.3 billion, 2024 EPS 5.03, 2025 EPS 5.61, 2025 PE 13.1, PB 2.5, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Gree Electric Appliances: Market Cap 261.8 billion, 2024 EPS 5.75, 2025 EPS 6.25, 2025 PE 7.5, PB 1.8, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Hisense Home Appliances: Market Cap 36.5 billion, 2024 EPS 2.42, 2025 EPS 2.71, 2025 PE 9.7, PB 2.2, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Supor: Market Cap 42.0 billion, 2024 EPS 2.80, 2025 EPS 3.03, 2025 PE 17.3, PB 6.1, Investment Rating: Strongly Recommended [2]. - Other companies such as Zhaochi Co., Juxing Technology, and Stone Technology also received a "Strongly Recommended" rating [2]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the home appliance sector over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.9%, 10.1%, and 30.3% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [5]. - The relative performance against the benchmark index (CSI 300) is 2.0%, 4.6%, and 14.8% for the same periods [5]. Supply Chain and Production Insights - Major appliance manufacturers like Hisense and TCL are primarily sourcing from Mexico and Vietnam, mitigating tariff impacts [6]. - The shift in TV imports to the US shows that Vietnam's share has increased to 36%, while China's has decreased to 5% [8]. - Companies in the smart home sector, such as Stone Technology, are also benefiting from reduced uncertainties in supply chains due to the Vietnam agreement [6]. Future Outlook - The anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost demand in the tools market, with a 66% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [9][10]. - Companies are advised to focus on production in Vietnam to meet local origin requirements and capitalize on the upcoming peak season for orders [6].

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：继续回落 白银：高位震荡 07 锡：微观基本面转弱 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 02 03 铜：微观边际转弱，宏观缺乏确定性，价格震荡 铝：关注回调压力 氧化铝："反内卷"暂未出行业细则，估值不宜给高 04 铸造铝合金：成本支撑逻辑仍在，价格窄幅震荡 05 锌：累库较慢 ...

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was signed by Trump on July 4, marking a new phase in U.S. fiscal policy [1] - The core purpose of the bill is to alleviate economic pressure caused by significant tariff increases, with the government opting for tariffs to offset fiscal deficits from corporate tax cuts and expanded spending [1][5] - Trump plans to send tariff notifications to over 170 trade partners starting July 5, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive negotiation strategy [1][3] Group 2 - India has submitted a notification to the WTO regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on imported cars and parts, planning retaliatory measures against U.S. goods [5] - The deadlock in negotiations between the U.S. and India is largely due to disagreements over agricultural and dairy products, with India unwilling to lower tariffs on key agricultural imports [5][9] - Japan is facing potential tariffs of 30% to 35% from the U.S., with ongoing disputes over automotive and agricultural issues, highlighting the complexity of U.S.-Japan trade relations [9][10] Group 3 - The EU and South Korea are prepared to take more aggressive measures if negotiations are not completed by July 9, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [10] - The outcomes of these negotiations will depend on the strength and resolve of the involved parties, including India, Japan, the EU, and South Korea [10]

特朗普称8月1日起实施新关税最高税率或达70% 当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起开始致函贸易伙伴，设定新的单边关税税 率。特朗普称，新关税"十有八九"从8月1日开始生效。 特朗普表示，从7月4日开始，美国将向多个国家发出信件，预计当天会有"10或12封"发出，更多信件将 在未来几天寄出。特朗普称，他预计这些信件将会在9日前全部送达。此前，特朗普将7月9日设为关税 谈判的最后期限。 对于将设定的新关税，特朗普说，"关税税率可能从60%、70%到10%、20%不等"。特朗普称，"我们已 经完成了(信函的)最终文本，它将基本说明这些国家将要支付的关税是多少"。 美国有线电视新闻网报道说，目前尚不清楚哪些国家将收到这些信件，但特朗普曾点名"批评"包括欧盟 和日本在内的某些贸易伙伴在谈判中过于强硬。特朗普本周曾威胁要向"被宠坏的"日本发出一封信，将 其关税税率设定为高达35%。 今年4月，特朗普对美国的多数贸易伙伴征收了高达50%的"对等"关税。美国彭博社称，如果新关税比 所谓"对等关税"的税率更高，将增加美国经济的通胀风险。美国有线电视新闻网称，50%的关税曾在4 月导致美国股市陷入熊市区域， ...

Group 1 - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US due to the impact of US tariffs on Indian automotive exports [1] - The EU is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the US on tariffs before the July 9 deadline, but will take countermeasures if negotiations fail [3] - Japan and the US trade negotiations are at a standstill, with key issues being automotive and agricultural tariffs [3] Group 2 - India and the US are in discussions regarding tariffs, but remain divided on agricultural and dairy products, which India considers "red lines" [4] - India's Finance Minister has emphasized the importance of protecting domestic farmers' interests in trade negotiations with the US [4] - The EU's readiness to defend its economic interests indicates a potential escalation in trade tensions if agreements are not reached [3]