Core Insights - Stellantis is evaluating the potential divestiture of its luxury brand Maserati amid significant pressures from rising import tariffs in the U.S. and competition from Chinese electric vehicle brands in the global luxury car market [1][2] - Maserati's global deliveries have plummeted to 14,725 units in 2024, nearly halving from 26,689 units in 2023, indicating severe market challenges [1] - The decline in Maserati's sales is attributed to underperformance of its core model Grecale, a structural shift in demand from Chinese consumers, and a slowdown in product updates [1] Company Strategy - Stellantis has engaged McKinsey & Company to develop new strategic plans for its luxury brands, including Maserati and Alfa Romeo, during a transitional period under Chairman John Elkann [1] - Official representatives from Stellantis have denied rumors regarding the sale of Maserati, but the company has not provided further details on the strategic evaluation [1] Industry Context - The automotive industry is facing challenges related to accelerated electrification, geopolitical risks, and the need to optimize brand portfolios and improve operational efficiency [2] - The future direction of Maserati may serve as a case study for how multinational automotive companies respond to global industry changes [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 螺纹产量回升，表观需求继续下降，体现了近期较好的高炉利润与需求淡 | | | | 季特征。库存小幅下降，供需总体上矛盾不大，部分地区缺规格现象仍然 | | | | 存在。铁水产量仍然处于高位，出口需求仍然较好。外围地缘政治风险有 | | | | 一定的向上拉动作用，但幅度有限。在现实基本面未出现明显改善的背景 | | | | 下，钢价或继续区间运行。【2970，3010】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅下降，表观需求环比回升，库存重新下降。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，矛盾不大。地缘政治风险抬高商品整体水平，但对国内钢价实际影响 | | | | 较有限，预计短期维持区间运行。【3090，3130】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 供给端发到货双降，港口去库，钢厂增库。整体供需结构环比继续改善。 | | | | 近期煤矿环保减产，煤价走强，支撑原材料价格。短期区间参与，中期逢 | | | ...

金银：外因影响边际放缓，金价震荡 | 白 T. 12 6 | 日 六 | 日. 37 | 24 14 | 10 ad | 11 14 | 用 元 /レ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 位 12/16 10 | 取 刷 | 服 耐 | HIT THE | AN JEX | L PJ | 户又化 | | 黄金 | SHFE黄金 | 785. 42 | 785. 08 | 0. 04% | 778 | 1.01% | | | COMEX黄金 | 3386 | 3407 | -0. 59% | 3376 | 0. 31% | | 白银 | SHFE白银 | 9045 | 8864 | 2. 04% | 8902 | 1.61% | | | COMEX白银 | 37 | 37 | -1.13% | 36 | 1. 10% | | | 上海金银比 | 86. 83 | 88. 57 | -1.96% | 89.03 | -2. 47% | | 比价 | COMEX全银比 | 91.62 | 91.62 | 0. 00% | 93.56 | -2.07% | ...

Group 1 - Norway's unexpected interest rate cut highlights increasing investor anxiety amid geopolitical tensions, trade risks, and a volatile dollar, complicating global monetary policy and inflation predictions [1] - The Swiss National Bank also reduced borrowing costs to 0%, indicating a bleak global outlook, which surprised some market participants [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Chairman Powell acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding future rate paths, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2 - Investors anticipate rising volatility due to geopolitical disruptions affecting the dollar and oil prices, diminishing central banks' ability to provide clear future guidance [2] - European central banks are diverging from the Fed, struggling to navigate a new era where the dollar has become weaker and more unstable under trade war pressures [3] - The dollar has declined nearly 9% against other major currencies this year, with a recent uptick following conflicts between Israel and Iran [3] Group 3 - The unexpected rate cuts from central banks may lead to a new normal characterized by increased market volatility and rapid shifts in asset pricing and narratives [3] - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly as investors seek non-dollar wealth storage, impacting import costs and pushing the economy towards deflation [4] - The Swiss franc rose against the dollar as traders deemed the Swiss National Bank's rate cut insufficient to combat deflation [5] Group 4 - Global equity market risks are rising, with options products designed to mitigate upcoming volatility appearing relatively cheap [6] - There is a focus on purchasing bonds from countries where inflation and interest rates may significantly decline, while maintaining a negative outlook on long-term U.S. and German bonds due to higher economic uncertainty [6] - Despite concerns, global equity markets remain nearly 20% higher than their lows in April, indicating resilience amid tariff-related worries [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown a weak adjustment pattern, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with expectations of only two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2][4] - The recent price drop reached a low of 3342, with a critical support level at this point, indicating potential for further declines if broken [2][4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with MACD showing a death cross formation and downward momentum [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have experienced a weekly increase of 3.9%, despite a slight pullback on Friday, driven by geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between Israel and Iran [5][6] - The current focus in the oil market has shifted from supply-demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks, with potential for significant price volatility if conflicts escalate [5] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish medium-term trend, with MACD showing strong upward momentum, although short-term fluctuations are expected [6]

2025 年 6 月 20 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 原油、燃料油、PTA 期货将偏强震 荡 黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃期货将震荡整理 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏弱震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3778 和 3794 点，支撑位 3751 和 3724 点；IH2509 阻力位 2623 和 2632 点，支撑位 2605 和 2590 点；IC2509 阻力位 5520 和 5572 点，支撑位 5455 和 5403 点；IM2509 阻力位 5816 ...

在英国央行宣布6月货币政策会议决议前，英国国家统计局率先公布了最新的通胀数据。数据显示，英 国5月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨3.4%，符合市场预期，小幅低于前值3.5%。 当时，英国央行行长贝利曾表示，全球经济变幻莫测，因此关于进一步降息，英国央行需要坚持渐进、 谨慎的态度。与此同时，英国央行认为，美国的关税措施及相关方的反制关税措施将对英国经济增长造 成一定影响。 当前，美国特朗普政府的关税政策以及中东地区的地缘政治风险，也在影响着英国央行决策者们的行 动。 6月19日，英国央行以6比3的投票数决定将基准利率维持在4.25%不变，符合预期。其中，有三名货币 政策委员会成员倾向于将利率下调至4%。自去年8月以来，英国央行已降息四次。 英国央行表示，全球不确定性仍然很高。由于中东冲突升级，能源价格出现上涨。委员会将继续对经济 和地缘政治环境的不可预测性提高敏感度，并将继续更新其对经济风险的评估。 英国央行在6月货币政策声明中指出，过去两年，随着之前的外部冲击已经消退，货币政策的限制性立 场稳定了长期通胀预期，通胀率大幅下降。这令英国央行能够逐步撤销一定程度的政策限制，同时将利 率保持在限制性领域，以便继续 ...

不过，尽管他认为经济和劳动力市场仍然"稳健"，但增长前景与通胀前景一样在迅速恶化。根据美联储 官员的预测，2025-2027年的累计GDP增长率将比去年12月份的预测低约1.25个百分点，累计通胀率将 高出约一个百分点。 转自：金十数据 美联储本周略微转向鹰派，表明其更担心通胀上升而非增长放缓。但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，应谨慎看 待这一前景。 美联储修订后的经济预测显示，官员们预计未来几个季度美国失业率和通胀率将上升，经济增长将放 缓。"滞胀"风险正在上升。 然而，与大多数其他G10央行不同的是，美联储拒绝先发制人地降息，而是选择等待关税引发的通胀前 景更加明朗后再决定下一步行动。 这是可以理解的。特朗普的关税对价格和经济活动的全面影响只有在7月9日之后才能感受到，届时目前 所谓的对等关税暂停期将结束。与此同时，随着以色列和伊朗之间的战争不断升级，新的地缘政治风险 正在上升，推动油价上涨。 在这种背景下，保持政策的"适度"限制性（鲍威尔对美联储当前立场的描述）是合理的。 鲍威尔几乎肯定会淡化或彻底否定这些动机，但它们仍将继续影响投资者对美联储行动的解读。 美联储亦毫无头绪 如果增长和通胀风险大体平衡，为什么官员 ...

五矿期货：紧盯鲍威尔转向时点 贵金属以暂时观望为主 今晨，特朗普暂缓对于伊朗的空袭决定，海外地缘政治风险出现阶段性缓和。白宫新闻秘书回应关于中 东局势的相关问题，表示美国政府近期将很有可能与伊朗展开谈判，美国总统特朗普将于两周内决定是 否对于伊朗采取军事行动。美国政府的表态令市场对于伊以局势的风险定价有所回落，黄金价格短期将 会承压。 中国 5 月消费增长强劲，但投资和工业生产有所放缓，经济增长整体稳健，短期有助于提振国内风险偏 好；但是，短期中东地缘政治紧张局势以及美联储偏鹰的政策声明打压国内风险偏好。 英国央行以比预期更分裂的投票结果将利率维持在4.25%不变，九人货币政策委员会中，六名成员投票 支持维持利率不变。外部委员丁格拉、泰勒以及副行长拉姆斯登则倾向于立即降息25个基点。这一决定 使得英国央行8月可能降息25个基点的预期升温。 【机构观点】 【白银期货行情表现】 6月20日，沪银主力暂报8689元/克，跌幅达2.51%，今日沪银主力开盘价8811元/克，截至目前最高8823 元/克，最低8658元/克。 【宏观消息】 中东紧张局势升级以及对美国可能介入的担忧令市场感到不安；以及美联储鹰派立场导致美 ...

原油成品油早报 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/06/13 | 72.98 | 74.23 | 69.93 | 0.73 | 1.43 | -1.25 | 2.48 | 222.76 | 19.33 | 235.87 | 24.84 | | 2025/06/16 | 71.77 | 73.23 | 69.34 | 1.09 | 1.24 | -1.46 | 2.90 | 221.99 | 20.01 | 239.33 | 27.29 | | 2025/06/17 | 74.84 | 76.45 | ...