据悉，在周二的会议上，英法签署文件确认未来在乌部署军队的意向。马克龙称可能派遣数千法军，斯 塔默则表示此举为英法等国部队在乌行动(含空海防御、协助重建乌军)奠定法律基础。 俄方警告：西方在乌部署军队、设施等行为将被定性为外国干涉，严重威胁俄欧安全，"所有相关部队 及设施均属俄武装力量合法打击目标"。声明强调，"意愿联盟"与乌当局的军国主义言论已构成"战争轴 心"，其计划不仅危及欧洲大陆未来，更迫使欧洲民众为西方野心买单。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1000.47元/克，较前一交易日下跌4.83美元，跌幅 0.48%，日内高位盘整。当日开盘价1004.88元/克，最高价1006.56元/克，最低价999.62元/克。 今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价1000.47元/克，较前一交易日下跌4.83美元，跌幅 0.48%，日内高位盘整。当日开盘价1004.88元/克，最高价1006.56元/克，最低价999.62元/克。 【要闻速递】 俄罗斯周四强烈回应英法向乌派兵计划，明确任何西方军队入乌都将成为"合法军事打击目标"。俄外交 部声明称，英法官宣的"军 ...

Morning session notice | 研究员： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘洋 | 从业资格： | F3063825 | 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.57%报 4487.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 1.19%报 76.69 美元/盎司。沪金上涨 0.21%报 1001.82 元/克，沪银下跌 2.82%报 18368.0 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 8 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上个交易日维持不 变，当前持仓量为 1067.13 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日增加 115.6 吨，当前持仓量为 16215.43 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"： ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on current market dynamics, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][11]. - For some commodities, such as PX, PTA, and short - term urea, they are in a state of high - level or short - term oscillation, with specific influencing factors analyzed for each [11][48]. - For other commodities, the report points out potential risks and opportunities, like the high valuation of styrene and the need to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [50]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: International oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties. PX prices fell, PTA load was at 78.2%, and MEG domestic production was at a high level [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX trend intensity is 1, PTA is 1, and MEG is 0 [11]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is in a unilateral high - level oscillation market, and attention should be paid to positive spreads. PTA is also in a high - level oscillation market, and MEG's medium - term trend is weak [11][12]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices were relatively stable, and import prices increased slightly [14]. - **Industry News**: Domestic production areas were at the end of the rubber - tapping season. Overseas raw material prices rose, and port inventories increased as expected [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rubber trend intensity is 0 [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions changed. Spot prices, such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, increased [17]. - **Industry News**: Butadiene port inventories decreased, and synthetic rubber inventories decreased slightly. Short - term butadiene and synthetic rubber may run strongly [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Synthetic rubber trend intensity is 1 [19]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were relatively stable [20]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Raw material prices were stable, and PE process profits improved. Supply and demand pressure remained in the medium - term [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [22]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads were relatively stable. Spot prices were mostly unchanged [23]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Cost was strong, and there was a valuation difference between PE and PP. Supply and demand were in a game, and attention should be paid to PDH device changes [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: PP trend intensity is 0 [25]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided [26]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The previous rebound was difficult to sustain, and it was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern with weak demand [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Caustic soda trend intensity is - 1 [30]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions increased. Spot prices were relatively stable [34]. - **Industry News**: The futures market was active, and the spot market was stable. The overall supply and demand changed little [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pulp trend intensity is 0 [34]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [38]. - **Spot News**: Domestic glass prices were mostly stable, and enterprise sales were average [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: Glass trend intensity is 0 [38]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were regionally adjusted [41]. - **Spot News**: The domestic methanol market was regionally adjusted, and port inventories continued to accumulate [43]. - **Trend Intensity**: Methanol trend intensity is 0 [44]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were mostly stable [46]. - **Industry News**: Enterprise inventories were basically flat, and the market entered a short - term oscillation pattern [47][48]. - **Trend Intensity**: Urea trend intensity is 0 [48]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and basis and spreads were provided. Spot prices were at a high level [49]. - **Spot News**: The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [50]. - **Trend Intensity**: Styrene trend intensity is 0 [49]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [54]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market rose slightly, with high supply and weak demand [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soda ash trend intensity is 0 [54]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and trading volumes and positions were provided. PDH and MTBE operating rates were also given [57]. - **Market Information**: CP paper prices fell, and there were domestic device maintenance plans [62]. - **Trend Intensity**: LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0 [61]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided. Social inventories increased [65]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and it was in a weak oscillation [65]. - **Trend Intensity**: PVC trend intensity is - 1 [66]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices and spreads were provided [68]. - **Trend Intensity**: Fuel oil trend intensity is 0, and low - sulfur fuel oil trend intensity is 0 [68]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Freight rates and exchange rates were provided [70]. - **Macro News**: There were geopolitical events such as Trump's threat to Iran and Yemen's personnel changes [78]. - **Trend Intensity**: Container Freight Index (European Line) trend intensity is 1 [83]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices were stable [84]. - **Spot News**: Short - fiber futures adjusted weakly, and bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable [84][85]. - **Trend Intensity**: Short - fiber trend intensity is 0, and bottle - chip trend intensity is 0 [85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices were stable, and cost - profit data changed slightly. Futures prices fell [87]. - **Industry News**: Market prices in Shandong and Guangdong were stable, and demand was weak [88][90]. - **Trend Intensity**: Offset printing paper trend intensity is - 1 [87]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and port inventories increased [91]. - **News**: Pure benzene port inventories increased, and spot prices rose [92][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pure benzene trend intensity is 0 [91].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the geopolitical tensions arising from the U.S. military action against Venezuela, which is closely linked to the country's oil resources and is expected to increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1] - Venezuela has approximately 3,500 tons of potential gold reserves, with a production of 31 tons in 2024, positioning it in the middle tier globally [1] - The U.S. military intervention signifies a strong stance towards resource-rich Latin American countries, potentially threatening the trade flow of key minerals and increasing the geopolitical risk premium on gold and silver prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to continue a volatile upward trend [2] - Long-term factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, declining U.S. dollar credibility, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold indicate that the bullish trend for gold and silver remains unchanged [2] - Silver is anticipated to outperform gold due to its industrial and strategic resource attributes [2]

资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 黄金和白银交易商、投资者正严阵以待，迎接正在进行的年度商品指数再平衡。预计未来几天内，价值 数十亿美元的期货合约将被抛售。花旗集团估计，为满足再平衡要求，约68亿美元的白银期货将被抛 售，而黄金期货的资金流出量也将大致相同。 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 高盛分析师表示，白银库存持续低迷意味着价格可能对流通高度敏感，这既增加了白银价格的上涨潜 力，也增加了其下跌风险。 纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价8日上涨0.57%，收于每盎司4487.90美 元。 技术层面，2月黄金期货多头下一个上涨目标是突破4584.00美元强劲阻力价位。空头下一个短期 ...

每日经济新闻 消息面上，美国财长贝森特明确表示，希望降低利率，称利率是驱动未来经济增长的关键因素。美联储 理事米兰表示，预计在2026年降息约150个基点。此举有望创造约一百万个就业岗位，同时不会引发通 货膨胀。 紫金天风期货分析指出，本次美委冲突的升级，显著强化了黄金与白银的避险属性。尽管节前因保证金 调整，黄金白银价格均现回落，但在节后依然出现快速反弹。很明显，地缘政治风险加剧了全球资本向 贵金属市场避险。当前冲突导致的美债收益率倒挂与美联储降息预期持续进一步了削弱美元信用，推动 了央行增持黄金。 2026年1月8日，金价震荡回落，盘中受美国财政与货币政策释放宽松信号，叠加地缘政治风险，避险需 求提升，金价尾盘震荡拉升，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.57%报4487.90美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏 （518850）跌0.1%，黄金股ETF（159562）跌0.39%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌1.72%。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-09 指数基⾦调仓带来原油买盘，能化延续 震荡整理 国际原油期货延续震荡整理态势，委内瑞拉原油业的发展被提上日 程；美国能源部长在与高管会谈后表示，康菲石油、埃克森美孚及其他美 国石油公司正在研究如何在振兴委内瑞拉能源工业中发挥作用。彭博大宗 商品指数(BCOM)年度再平衡正式于1月8日启动，将持续至1月14日，此次 调仓遵循'卖出赢家、买入输家'的原则，Brent原油权重上调带动原油 板块获显著被动买盘，有色金属则面临集体减持压力。EIA报告显示，上 周美国成品油库存大幅增加，石油总库存增加，对油价形成压制。 板块逻辑： 宏观主导了近期化工市场的反弹，股市和热门商品的调整也引发了化 工的集体走弱。芳烃链整体延续震荡态势，PTA产业链而言，芳烃原料开 工持稳，聚酯开工延续在90.8%的高位，终端织造开工延续季节性下行态 势，产业链较平淡。苯乙烯开工也周度持稳，下游EPS开工率周度小幅提 升。芳烃产业链仍将震荡。PP周度开工下滑，PE开工则略增，PE的贸易商 和下游工厂补库增多是近期价格反弹的主要原因，产业整体变化较 ...

早上好，先来关注下美国总统特朗普的最新表态。 据央视新闻最新消息，特朗普8日再次就伊朗骚乱事件发出威胁，称如再有人员死亡，美国将对伊朗进行"严厉打击"。 图片来源：央视新闻 CME近期第三次上调贵金属期货保证金 特朗普当天接受一家电台采访时说，美国正密切关注伊朗发生的骚乱事件，他不确定"是否一定要追究某个人的责任"，但如果伊朗当局对相关人员死亡事 件负有直接责任，"他们将付出惨痛的代价"。 据悉，伊朗多地发生骚乱，造成人员伤亡。特朗普2日威胁将就伊朗骚乱事件进行干涉。伊朗方面强调，伊朗人民将通过彼此之间的对话与互动来解决自 身问题，绝不允许任何形式的外来干预，并表示如果美国采取冒险行动，伊朗会作出回应。 特朗普还表示，美国必须"拥有"整个格陵兰岛，而不仅仅是依据现有条约在当地行使军事和防务权利。 特朗普称，所有权本身具有无法通过租赁或条约获得的战略价值。 关于美联储主席人选，特朗普称"心中已经有了决定"，但没有透露最终人选。当被问及他的首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特时，特朗普称"我不想说"，但他形 容哈塞特"无疑是我喜欢的人之一"。 值得注意的是，伊朗突发大范围断网。当地时间8日晚，伊朗首都德黑兰互联网服务出现中断 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela's oil resources, particularly following the U.S. military action against the Maduro regime, which is expected to increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1] - Venezuela possesses approximately 3,500 tons of gold resource potential, with a gold production of 31 tons in 2024, placing it in a mid-range position globally [1] - The U.S. military strike against Venezuela underscores a strong stance towards resource-rich Latin American countries, potentially threatening the trade flow of key minerals and increasing the geopolitical risk premium on gold and silver prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to continue a volatile upward trend, while the long-term outlook remains bullish due to factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, declining dollar credibility, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank gold purchases [2] - Silver is anticipated to outperform gold due to its industrial and strategic resource attributes [2]

国际油价周四从连续两日下跌中反弹，布伦特原油一度涨幅达5%，创两周新高。 地缘政治风险升温 尽管美国计划向国内炼油商出售至多5000万桶委内瑞拉原油，且美国汽油和馏分油库存上升，但投资者对委内瑞拉局势发展的评估以及对俄罗 斯、伊拉克和伊朗供应中断的担忧推动油价走高。 当地时间周三，美国能源部长Chris Wright在接受媒体采访时表示，预计雪佛龙将迅速扩大在委内瑞拉的业务，康菲石油和埃克森美孚也在寻求发 挥建设性作用。但能源咨询公司Ritterbusch and Associates指出： 大量委内瑞拉原油进入美国墨西哥湾地区可能需要数年时间。 市场同时密切关注其他主要产油国的供应风险。据报道，一艘驶往俄罗斯的油轮在黑海遭遇无人机袭击，伊拉克因美国对俄罗斯Lukoil实施制裁 而推进West Qurna 2油田国有化，伊朗则因经济困境引发全国性抗议并实施互联网封锁。 周四布伦特原油期货结算价上涨2.03美元，涨幅3.4%，至每桶61.99美元。这是布伦特原油自去年12月24日以来的最高收盘价。WTI原油期货上涨 1.77美元，涨幅3.2%，至每桶57.76美元。 特朗普对伊朗的强硬表态成为推动油价上涨的因素 ...