Report Overview - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term surge in precious metal prices may have ended due to the possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but the uptrend may continue until 2026 due to factors like Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while being aware of short - term adjustment risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions through this week's economic and trade consultations in Malaysia has alleviated market concerns, leading to significant price drops in gold and silver on Friday. The short - term surge may be over, and investors should watch for short - term adjustment risks. However, factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide safe - haven demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals, and the uptrend may last until 2026. This week, key events to monitor include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold oscillated between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressure. Easing international trade conditions and a strong global stock market weakened safe - haven demand. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's rate - cut process, and under the Trump administration's pressure, the rate - cut pace may be faster. The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to mid - October, London gold started a new uptrend, soaring to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record of $54.47 per ounce. The bullish factors will continue to work, but short - term price surges bring adjustment risks, and bullish factors may weaken periodically. Investors are advised to be bullish overall, and short - hedgers can reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11] 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump pressured the Ukrainian president to give up territory and proposed an agreement based on the current front line, which was accepted by Zelensky [17]. - Trump continued to signal trade - tension easing, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from so - called reciprocal tariffs and willing to exclude more products when trade agreements are reached [17]. - S&P downgraded France's long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating from "AA -" to "A+", the second downgrade in a year and a half. Fitch had downgraded France's rating in September, and Moody's will announce its latest rating decision on the 24th [17]. - The US and South Korea have made substantial progress in most trade negotiation issues, and the possibility of reaching a trade agreement before the APEC meeting is high [18].

Group 1 - Silver prices reached a historic high of $54.49 per ounce, the highest level since 1980, but subsequently retreated [1][2] - The recent surge in silver prices was driven by significant investment flows, increasing physical shortages, and escalating geopolitical risks [2] - London silver inventories have decreased significantly, with available "free flow" dropping from 850 million ounces in 2019 to 200 million ounces last week, indicating a structural deficit in global supply [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts in October and December are expected to provide long-term support for the silver market [1] - The recent price action in gold, which has seen a significant reversal after reaching historical highs, may negatively impact silver prices unless new catalysts emerge [3][5] - Silver remains in a bullish trend, but the risk of correction is increasing, with key support identified at $49.81 [8]

南华期货原油产业周报 2025年10月20日 —— 地缘弱化，宏观利空 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油市场呈 "短期扰动难改中长期弱势" 格局。短期看，加沙停火后地缘支撑大幅弱化，仅能引发小幅反 弹；美国政府停摆、中美经贸紧张等宏观利空持续，虽银行信贷问题暂未引发恐慌，但避险情绪仍存，原油 日线受 5 日均线压制，逐步逼近 60 美元支撑。中长期而言，基本面持续转弱，无实质性利好支撑，市场逻辑 以利空为主，波动重心不断下移。若 Brent 60 美元支撑失守，下方空间或进一步扩大，后续需警惕中期跌势 形成，补全第四轮波动周期最后一段，整体仍需优先关注下行风险。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原油E ...

Global Market Performance - The global asset prices have shown significant divergence since September, with the A-share market continuing to fluctuate around 3800 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices demonstrate stronger resilience, indicating structural opportunities in growth sectors [3] - The Hong Kong stock market has strengthened under the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.31% in one week and net inflows into the E Fund Hang Seng Tech ETF exceeding 3.5 billion yuan in the past month, surpassing 20 billion yuan in total scale [3] - The gold market has maintained its strong performance, with spot gold prices in London surpassing 3700 USD per ounce on September 22, reaching a historical high, and domestic retail prices for gold exceeding 1078 yuan per gram [3] Policy Impact - Multiple significant policies have been implemented in September, impacting the capital market profoundly, including a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by the central bank to release medium- and long-term liquidity, effectively countering short-term pressures from government bond issuance and stock market fund diversion [5] - A personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy was officially implemented on September 1, expected to mobilize trillions of yuan in credit funds towards key sectors such as automotive, elderly care, and cultural tourism, directly boosting domestic demand [5] - The regulatory authorities are promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, with the top 100 fund distribution institutions holding equity fund assets reaching 5.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.89% [5] Investment Strategy - The company recommends a balanced allocation strategy focusing on three main directions: technology leaders in Hong Kong benefiting from liquidity improvement, consumption recovery sectors driven by policy, and high-dividend defensive assets such as utilities [7] - For gold investments, it is suggested to participate through gold ETFs and gold stocks, with a note on the short-term price increase and the importance of monitoring Federal Reserve policy expectations and dollar exchange rate fluctuations [7] - The "fixed income +" strategy has shown promising performance in 2025, with over 1700 products achieving positive returns year-to-date, and a median return exceeding 3%, making it suitable for conservative investors [7] Market Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, anticipating a resonance in monetary policy cycles between China and the U.S., the release of domestic policy dividends, and the deepening of capital market reforms [10]

引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险,投资需谨慎! | 贵金属日评20251020:美国信贷危机有所缓解或使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-16 | 收盘价 | 33. 38 | 72. 24 | 999. 80 | 927. 56 | 966. 42 | | | | | 成交量 | 181, 422. 00 | 640615.00 | 459193.00 | 446705.00 | 193, 910. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持创重 | 225159.00 | -17.804.00 | 222192.00 | 239996.00 | -2.967.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 84606.00 | 80961.00 | 70 ...

2、美中贸易：缓和压制避险需求 美国总统特朗普表态称对中国100%关税"不可持续"，并确认两周后与中国国家主席会晤，随后中美经贸牵头人举行视频通话，同意尽快开展新一轮磋商， 释放贸易缓和信号，削弱黄金避险需求，导致金价高位回落。但需警惕美国贸易政策的不确定性，其计划对哥伦比亚加征关税，显示强势姿态仍在延续，且 美国政府停摆19天导致关键经济数据缺失，增加市场不确定性。 3、美联储政策与美元：双重博弈 美联储降息预期是金价全年大涨的核心动力，市场已消化10月降息25个基点的可能性，部分押注12月再降50个基点，圣路易斯联储主席支持月底降息的鸽派 表态支撑非孳息资产黄金，汇丰银行上调预测，预计2025年黄金均价3455美元，2026年达5000美元。但美元坚挺构成阻力，上周五美元指数上涨0.2%至 98.53，使黄金对海外买家更昂贵；美债收益率探底回升，10年期收益率涨至3.999%，虽周线连跌三周，但仍对金价形成一定压力，地区银行财报缓解信贷 担忧，市场持续评估相关问题的长期影响。 4、展望与建议 上周，黄金周一到周四强势上涨，连续收阳，周五在上涨至4375/7380区域后受阻大跌，最低跌至4186附近，尾盘回 ...

Summary of COSCO Shipping Energy Transport Management Update Call Company Overview - **Company**: COSCO Shipping Energy Transport (CSET) - **Date of Call**: 16 October 2025 - **Stock Codes**: 1138.HK / 600026.SH Key Industry Insights - **Tanker Cycle Outlook**: Management expressed a positive outlook on the tanker cycle, driven by: 1. **Demand Recovery**: Supported by OPEC's steady output recovery and China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve restocking [2][32] 2. **Supply Constraints**: Effective supply tightening due to India's shift towards compliant Middle-East and Latin-American crude, extreme weather, gray-fleet retirements, and shipyard congestion [2][32] 3. **Policy Drivers**: Introduction of port fees on US-linked vessels in China, escalating US-China trade tensions, and participation in Brazil through a joint venture with CNOOC [2][32] 4. **Shareholder Returns**: Plans to resume dividends and buybacks post-restrictions [2][32] Financial Performance and Forecasts - **3Q25 Revenue Forecast**: Expected to be Rmb4.95 billion, a decrease of 5% YoY and 16% QoQ [4] - **3Q25 NPAT Forecast**: Expected to be Rmb976 million, an increase of 26% YoY but a decrease of 16% QoQ [4] - **4Q Earnings Rebound**: Anticipated due to strong spot rates, with average TD3C rates around US$72k/day since September [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ has increased production by approximately 2.47 million barrels per day since April, providing substantial cargo volumes for long-haul shipments [8] - **VLCC Market Trends**: The VLCC market has shown volatility, with rates fluctuating significantly due to geopolitical events and market sentiment [8][12] - **Impact of Sanctions**: US sanctions and China's reciprocal port fees have created a bullish environment for compliant tonnage, with high TCEs expected to persist [8][12] Strategic Initiatives - **Decarbonization Efforts**: CSET is testing methanol-dual-fuel VLCCs and exploring new energy solutions, aligning with long-term carbon reduction goals [18] - **Expansion in Brazil**: CSET is increasing its presence in Brazil through a joint venture with CNOOC, capitalizing on growing Brazilian crude output [18] Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Price Target**: CSET-H target price set at HK$12, reflecting a potential upside of 25% [34][39] - **Investment Thesis**: CSET is rated Overweight based on: 1. Industry recovery signals post-2025 2. Scrapping of older vessels and tightening supply discipline 3. Diversified fleet mix and strong market positioning 4. Limited exposure to geopolitical risks [33][43] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Include slower-than-expected recovery in tanker demand, regulatory cost pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties [45] Conclusion - CSET is positioned favorably within the tanker market, with strong fundamentals and a clear strategy for navigating current challenges, making it an attractive investment opportunity as the market tightens into 2026 [32][38]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable demand outlook for the CDMO industry, with new growth points emerging from weight loss drugs, peptide drugs, and GLP-1 drugs, leading to a positive investment sentiment towards the sector. Core Insights - The geopolitical risks in the pharmaceutical industry have decreased, allowing investors to focus more on the performance, order momentum, and delivery capabilities of CDMO companies [1][4] - Chinese CDMO companies are actively expanding capacity and investing in new technologies, with firms like WuXi AppTec and Kelun Biotech accelerating overseas capacity construction to balance cost-effectiveness and maintain profit margins [1][5] - The rise of Chinese biotech firms is increasing global competition, emphasizing the importance of technical capabilities and execution quality [1][4] Summary by Sections Demand and Growth Opportunities - Overall demand in the CDMO sector remains robust, with expectations for improvement in the second half of the year, particularly driven by weight loss drugs, peptide drugs, and GLP-1 drugs [2] - ADC (antibody-drug conjugates) and bispecific antibodies are also showing new demand in the R&D sector, indicating future growth potential [2] Capacity Expansion and Profitability - The trend of overseas capacity expansion is becoming increasingly important, with many Asian companies prioritizing this despite high construction costs and long cycles due to its flexibility and risk reduction advantages [4][6] - Companies are shifting high-automation production processes overseas while leveraging domestic operational advantages to achieve cost-effectiveness [6] Company Strategies - WuXi AppTec plans to accelerate the construction of small molecule factories in Singapore and the U.S., with the Singapore facility expected to be operational by January 2027 [5] - Kelun Biotech is expanding its capacity from 30,000 liters to 44,000 liters, with multiple clinical projects progressing to mid-late stages [8] - BoroPharma is focusing on expansion through acquisitions rather than starting from scratch, utilizing shared services for operational flexibility [5] Market Trends and Policy Impact - The U.S. MFN pricing policy has had a limited initial impact, primarily affecting Medicaid, with overall drug price effects being minimal [3][10] - Tariff policies mainly target patented drugs, with manageable impacts on Chinese CDMO companies, especially those with established U.S. facilities [12] - The Chinese biotech pharma sector is performing strongly, driven by innovative pipelines and rising valuations, with significant interest in metabolic and autoimmune diseases [14]

Core Viewpoint - The situation surrounding Nexperia, a subsidiary of Wentech Technology, has escalated due to external pressures, particularly from the Dutch government, which has imposed restrictions on the company's operations and governance, leading to significant operational challenges and market reactions [1][9][10]. Group 1: Company Operations and Employee Relations - Nexperia China has assured employees that all operations and employee benefits are functioning normally, emphasizing compliance with Chinese laws and independent decision-making [3][4]. - The company has established that any external directives not approved by its legal representative can be disregarded by employees without disciplinary repercussions [4][6]. Group 2: Market Performance and Financial Impact - Since the Dutch government's directive on September 30, Wentech Technology's stock has seen a decline of over 20%, although there has been a recent recovery, with a reported stock price of 38.5 yuan and a market capitalization of 479 billion yuan as of October 17 [7][9]. - The company has faced significant financial challenges, with a reported loss of 6.85 billion yuan in its ODM/OEM business for the first half of 2025, prompting a strategic divestment of this segment for approximately 43.89 billion yuan [10][11]. Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Challenges - The Dutch court has imposed emergency measures, including suspending the CEO's powers and appointing an independent foreign director with decisive voting rights, which has temporarily stripped Wentech of governance over Nexperia [9][10]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce has also introduced new export control measures that further complicate Wentech's operational landscape, particularly affecting its subsidiaries [10][11]. Group 4: Management Changes and Strategic Shifts - Wentech has undergone significant management restructuring, with key executives resigning and new leadership from Nexperia taking over operational decisions [12][13]. - The company has shifted its focus from a dual-industry strategy to a singular emphasis on semiconductor operations, effectively making Nexperia the primary focus of Wentech's business model [13][14]. Group 5: Geopolitical Context and Industry Implications - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and Western nations, have led to increased scrutiny and intervention in Chinese investments abroad, as evidenced by the actions taken against Nexperia [10][11]. - The semiconductor industry is facing heightened regulatory challenges, with companies like Nexperia becoming targets of international scrutiny, impacting their operational strategies and market positioning [17][18].

记者丨 赵云帆 编辑丨巫燕玲 视频 丨 曾婷芳 见习编辑 陈泽锴 闻泰科技创始人张学政恐怕料想不到，就在他选择退居幕后不到一年的时间中，公司会接连陷入如此一筹莫展的境地。 10月19日， 闻泰科技旗下 安世中国发布致全体员工信。 信中表示： 安世国内全部主体运营及员工薪资福利一切正常。 目前，公司生产经营一切如常，各项工作有序推进。董事会和管理层始终全力保障公司 正常运转，不会允许外部力量影响公司运营或损害员工利益。安世国内团队的同事均与国内公司建立劳动关系，大家的工资、奖金及其他 福利将继续由安世国内公司而不是Nexperia荷兰主体发放。 上下滑动查看详情 此前10月18日，就旗下安世半导体(中国)的员工公司系统权限被全面中断一事，闻泰科技方面负责人回应表示，10月17日早上安世中国团队的 账号被封，具体原因不明，目前有部分恢复。考虑到紧急状态下欧洲可能会切断系统切断资金，中国区不得不采取独立的自救行为，加紧拉通 国内供应链，确保国内客户的供应。 此前10月12日，闻泰科技公告，荷兰政府9月30日发出指令，要求冻结闻泰科技的控股子公司安世半导体，对资产、知识产权等进行调整，为 期一年。 二级市场表现上，自 ...