China: Central Economic Work Conference readout suggests modestly pro-growth policy stance 12 December 2025 | 2:22AM HKT Economics Research The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) was held on 10-11 December, chaired by President Xi. Policymakers reviewed economic work in 2025 and set the macro policy stance for 2026. In our view, the signals from CEWC appear modestly more pro-growth than the December Politburo meeting three days ago, as policymakers this time emphasized growth challenges, highlig ...

杨志勇表示，明年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这和今年的财政政策取向一以贯之，财政在国 家治理中的基础和重要支柱作用将得到进一步发挥。"加强财政科学管理"等安排，将更充分地释放和提 升财政政策效能，更好护航经济运行、推动经济增长目标的实现。 新华社北京12月11日电 宏观政策是护航经济稳定运行的重要手段。12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工 作会议提出，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，并明确要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度 宽松的货币政策。 做好明年经济工作，政策取向备受关注。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提 质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 "明年的政策取向释放出'更加积极有为'的鲜明信号。"中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇表示，宏观政策 加大调控力度，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，将更好引导发展预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量 的合理增长，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 "保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量""加强财政科学管理"……会议明确了财政政策发力方 向。 在货币政策方面，会议也作出明确安排："把促进经 ...

Policy Insights - The latest Central Economic Work Conference has set a clear direction for 2026, focusing on improving domestic demand as a primary goal[5] - The meeting highlighted the "strong supply, weak demand" contradiction as a core issue, indicating a more direct acknowledgment of economic challenges compared to last year's statements[5] - Policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption are expected to continue, with an emphasis on stabilizing market expectations for demand-related policies[5] Economic Measures - Specific measures include encouraging flexible employment and new employment forms, with a focus on "employee insurance" as a key initiative[5] - In healthcare, the focus has shifted from strengthening basic medical services to optimizing drug procurement and reforming medical insurance payment methods[5] - Education policies will see a clearer allocation of financial resources, moving from promoting balanced development to adjusting resource distribution[5] Macro Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy will maintain its previous tone while becoming more balanced, addressing both new growth and existing economic issues[5] - The emphasis will be on normalizing income, with fiscal policies adapting to current economic characteristics and monetary policies aimed at reasonable price recovery[5] - The meeting also stressed the importance of risk prevention, particularly in small and medium financial institutions, indicating a proactive approach to managing potential risks[5] Investor Sentiment - The detailed policy expressions and tools provided by the conference are expected to enhance investor confidence and reduce risk assessments moving forward[5] - A potential risk highlighted is the possibility of "anti-involution" measures exceeding expectations, which could lead to a contraction effect greater than the macroeconomic recovery[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The supply side focuses on "anti-involution," and the demand side focuses on the "income increase plan." In 2026, the four goals of economic work were removed, and the focus shifted from "promoting stability through progress" in 2025 to "improving quality and efficiency" in 2026, with a shift from quantity requirements to quality requirements. As the economic cycle gradually improves, the marginal intensity of macro policies weakens [2]. - Fiscal policy in 2026 lacks incremental fiscal spending and emphasizes "strict financial discipline." It is expected to shift from "expansion" to "stability" [2][8]. - The increment of monetary easing is limited, and the focus shifts to credit expansion. The policy center shifts from focusing on the matching between the real economy and finance to promoting the growth of the real economy, with an emphasis on key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [3][9]. - The key tasks in 2026 include domestic demand (expect the implementation of the "income doubling plan"), innovation (the "capacity expansion and quality improvement" of the service industry and "fintech" may be highlights), and risk prevention (the order of risk prevention is postponed, and local government debt will be resolved "actively and orderly") [3][9]. Summary by Catalog Strategy Summary - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th. After a "very extraordinary" year in 2025, the macro policy remained stable, and the economy began to show characteristics of "new and high-quality development" [1][7]. - With the macro environment shifting from "strategic defense" to "strategic stalemate," the demand for "putting ourselves first" in the domestic economy has increased. The relationship between the effective market and the effective government has shifted from "letting go and controlling well" in 2024 to "letting go and managing well," reflecting a transformation towards a service-oriented government [7]. - In 2026, the instability of external demand will increase, and the domestic economy should "put itself first" to expand domestic demand [8]. Core Views - The supply side focuses on "anti-involution," and the demand side focuses on the "income increase plan." The goals, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and key tasks in 2026 are as described above [2][3]. First Paragraph - The description of the Central Economic Work Conference in 2025 remains the same as in 2024 [10][11][12]. Review - Compared with the Politburo meeting on the 8th and the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year, the main changes include the description of the nature of the year, the economic situation, and the development of productivity [14][15][16]. Understanding - The epistemological paragraph of the 2025 economic work conference regarding "economic work" is advanced compared to 2024, highlighting the guiding concept of economic work - "putting ourselves first." The strategic autonomy has been enhanced, and the relationship between the effective market and the effective government has changed [19][20][21]. Current Situation - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference added the description of "old problems and new challenges" when describing economic development problems. It believes that these are problems in development and transformation and can be solved through efforts. The description of the external environment has changed, and the focus on the domestic environment has shifted to "strong supply and weak demand" [23][24][26]. Requirements - The description of the requirements for economic work in 2026 is basically consistent with that of the Politburo meeting. The "steady progress while maintaining stability" work keynote is postponed, and the external demand faces increased instability in 2026. Macro policies remain "active and effective," with enhanced policy "foresight, pertinence, and synergy" and an adjustment in the relationship between supply and demand policies [28][30][31]. Goals - In 2026, the four goals of economic work were removed, and the focus shifted from "promoting stability through progress" to "improving quality and efficiency." Fiscal policy shifts from "expansion" to "stability," and monetary policy focuses on credit expansion. Policy coordination focuses on considering "stock" and "increment" together [44][45][46]. Tasks - The key tasks in 2026 include domestic demand (expanding the "income increase plan" to urban and rural residents, optimizing the implementation of "two new" and "two important" projects, and high-quality urban renewal), innovation (talent as the primary task, "capacity expansion and quality improvement" of the service industry, and fintech services), reform ("anti-involution" in the reform part, "reduction and quality improvement" of small and medium-sized financial institutions), and risk prevention (postponing the order of risk prevention, stabilizing the real estate market, and actively resolving local government debt risks) [49][60][61]. Methods - The goal has changed from "achieving an optimal combination of stable growth, stable employment, and reasonable price recovery" in 2025 to "solving existing difficult problems," which is more of an economic structure issue that needs to be addressed through reform [66][67][68]. Actions - The shift from "emphasizing action" in 2024 to "correct performance concept" and "acting according to laws" in 2025 implies that the economy in 2026 will show structural characteristics [69][70][71]. New Year Transition - Arrangements are made for the New Year transition, emphasizing the resolution of social contradictions in the context of pressure and difficulties [72][73][74].

继续实施更加积极的财政政策 会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政 科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 欧阳剑环 12月10日至11日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展 新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开 局。 专家认为，明年宏观政策将保持连续性、稳定性，以稳定社会预期、提振市场信心。此外，有关部门还 将进一步强化各类经济政策和非经济政策、存量政策和增量政策的协同配合，通过制度化安排精准引导 市场预期。 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 这一政策取向传递出明年的宏观政策将更加注重质量和效果的信号，也意 ...

Core Points - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2023, emphasized the importance of economic work for the year 2025, marking the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and setting the direction for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The conference highlighted the need for a comprehensive understanding of economic work under new circumstances, focusing on maximizing economic potential, combining policy support with reform, and ensuring effective management alongside flexibility [1][2] Economic Policy Direction - The conference called for a more proactive macroeconomic policy, emphasizing stability and quality improvement, and increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [3][4] - It was decided to maintain necessary fiscal deficits and optimize fiscal expenditure structures while addressing local fiscal difficulties [4] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, utilizing various tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic growth [4] Domestic Market Development - Building a strong domestic market is prioritized, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and addressing the current insufficient effective demand [6][7] - Specific measures include boosting consumption, expanding the supply of quality goods and services, and optimizing policies to stimulate consumer spending [6][7] Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The conference stressed the importance of innovation-driven development, proposing a series of initiatives to enhance education, technology, and talent development [8][9] - It aims to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation [8][9] Reform and Opening Up - The conference outlined reforms to enhance high-quality development, including establishing a unified national market and addressing competitive practices [10][11] - It emphasized the transition from a commodity and factor flow-oriented opening to a rules-based opening, focusing on service sector expansion and digital trade [11] Regional Development and Urban-Rural Integration - Coordinated regional development is essential, with a focus on urban-rural integration and promoting high-quality county-level economic development [12][13] - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining poverty alleviation efforts and integrating them into rural revitalization strategies [12][13] Green Transition - The conference called for a comprehensive green transition, emphasizing carbon reduction and environmental protection measures [14] - Specific actions include energy system construction and pollution control initiatives to support sustainable development [14] Social Welfare and Employment - The conference underscored the importance of social welfare, focusing on employment stability for key groups and enhancing educational opportunities [16] - It aims to improve public services and ensure the supply of essential goods, particularly during the year-end period [16] Risk Management - The conference addressed the need to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [17][18] - It proposed measures to control real estate supply and promote the construction of affordable housing [17][18]

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话，总结2025年经济工作，分析当前 经济形势，部署2026年经济工作，为实现"十五五"良好开局定向领航。 不断深化新形势下做好经济工作的规律性认识 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，在中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义。 会议总结今年经济运行情况，指出"经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成""'十四五'即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征 程实现良好开局"。 会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持 和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑 战。 新时代以来的中央经济工作会议，一贯重视理论总结，用以指导经济发展实践。随着形势变化，中央经济工作会议持续深 化对经济工作的规律性认识，2021年提出"四个必须"，2022年提出"六个坚持"，2023年提出"五个必须"，2024年提出"根本保 证""五个必须统筹"。 原标题：新华全媒头条·聚焦中央经济工作会议｜推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长——从中央经 ...

申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟表示，会议在延续积极财政与适度宽松货币基调的基础上，明确提出"增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"，"发挥存量政策和 增量政策集成效应"。新增表述或意味着，后续政策更注重财政与货币、总量与结构、存量盘活与增量优化的协同发力，更注重避免碎片化，通过强化政 策协同与存量增量联动，实现稳增长与提质增效的双重目标。 会议部署了八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚 持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多 办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 中金公司研究部首席宏观经济分析师张文朗表示，中央经济工作会议针对社会普遍关注的经济热点问题都有明确回应，扩大内需放在了明年工作的第一 位，明确提出"坚持内需主导，建设国内强大市场"，从居民收入、清理消费限制、优化两新政策等方面多管齐下，还提出"制定城乡居民增收计划"，未来 的落地值得关注。 中信证券指出，防风险方面，本次会议对重点领域风险化解的部署坚持"标本兼治、协同 ...

杨志勇表示，明年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这和今年的财政政策取向一以贯之，财政在国 家治理中的基础和重要支柱作用将得到进一步发挥。"加强财政科学管理"等安排，将更充分地释放和提 升财政政策效能，更好护航经济运行、推动经济增长目标的实现。 新华财经北京12月11日电（记者吴雨、申铖）宏观政策是护航经济稳定运行的重要手段。12月10日至11 日举行的中央经济工作会议提出，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，并明确要继续实施更加积极的财政政 策，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。 做好明年经济工作，政策取向备受关注。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提 质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 "明年的政策取向释放出'更加积极有为'的鲜明信号。"中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇表示，宏观政策 加大调控力度，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，将更好引导发展预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量 的合理增长，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。 "保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量""加强财政科学管理"……会议明确了财政政策发力方 向。 在货币政策方面，会议也作出明 ...

新华社权威速览 -- 2025年中央经济工作会议 1层 明年经济工作 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在 北京举行。习近平总书记出席会议并发表 重要讲话,总结2025年经济工作,分析当 前经济形势,部署2026年经济工作。 "十四五"即将圆满收官 今年是很不平凡的一年。以习近平 同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全 国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏,坚 定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量 发展,统筹国内国际两个大局,实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策,经济社会 发展主要目标将顺利完成。我国经济 顶压前行、向新向优发展,现代化产 业体系建设持续推进,改革开放迈出 新步伐,重点领域风险化解取得积极 进展,民生保障更加有力。过去5年, 我们有效应对各种冲击挑战,推动党 和国家事业取得新的重大成就,"十 四五"即将圆满收官,第二个百年奋 斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 做好新形势下经济工作 新的认识和体会 必须充分挖掘经济潜能 必须坚持政策支持和改革创新 并举 必须做到既"放得活"又"管 得好" 必须坚持投资于物和投资于人 紧密结合 必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战 明年经济工作的 总体要求 要以习近平新时代中国特色社会 主义思想为指导 ...