今年5月，受全球贸易紧张局势降温等因素影响，金融市场风险资产价格出现反弹，美欧主要股指5月均 显著上涨，国际油价小幅上涨。 避险资产黄金价格波动加剧，较4月历史高点下跌超过5%。 总部位于英国伦敦的金融服务机构EBC金融集团分析指出，投资者仍面对美国关税政策反复、日美长期 国债收益率飙升、地区冲突持续等主要风险，建议投资者采取保守策略。 智通财经APP获悉，美国银行预计到今年年底或 2026 年初，黄金价格将达到每盎司 4000 美元，白银价 格将达到每盎司 40 美元。去年10月，该行金价将达到3000美元，目前已经超过这一水平。美银分析师 表示，贸易引发的地缘政治不确定性将继续支撑金属价格，而对美国政府财政状况日益加剧的担忧可能 会推动金属价格进一步上涨。 高盛发表报告，预测到明年中期金价将达到4000美元/盎司，认为相较比特币，黄金将是更安全的对冲 工具。高盛认为，绝大多数可用的黄金储备已经被开采，在供应短缺以及通胀忧虑下需求增加，为金价 上升提供动力。高盛全球大宗商品研究联合主管Daan Struyven表示，在过去数年，比特币的回报率高于 黄金，但波动性亦较大更大，对下跌也更敏感。当市场风胃纳积极时 ...

Group 1 - The domestic equity market has established a policy bottom, but short-term economic resilience expectations are limited due to external demand uncertainties, leading to a structural rotation in the market with a temporary preference for dividend stocks [1] - In June, the market is expected to maintain a range-bound structure, influenced by external shocks and policy support for economic recovery, with a focus on dividend assets and new consumption sectors, as well as low-position opportunities in technology growth [1] - The consumption sector is expected to benefit from a shift in policy focus from supply-side to demand-side, with strong expectations for consumption policies and stable performance in essential consumer industries during the earnings season [1] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical industry is currently undervalued, with an anticipated surge in innovative drugs due to a significant policy shift in centralized procurement, which may open up valuation ceilings and improve performance expectations for domestic innovative drugs [2] - Dividend assets are likely to benefit from a stable fundamental environment and low interest rates, with strong policy support expected to accelerate long-term capital inflows into high-yield assets [2] - The geopolitical uncertainties and potential risks from the "America First" policy have increased the allocation value of defensive assets, suggesting continued interest in defense, food security, security, and gold assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. court ruling against Trump's tariffs has led to a significant rebound in gold prices, highlighting the volatility and sensitivity of the gold market to geopolitical and economic developments [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The initial drop in gold prices was influenced by the U.S. International Trade Court's ruling on May 28, which prohibited the enforcement of several tariff orders from the Trump administration, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on May 29 indicated a hawkish monetary policy stance, which dampened interest rate cut expectations and reduced the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, causing further price declines [3][4]. - The subsequent reversal in gold prices was driven by the U.S. Federal Appeals Court temporarily halting the previous ruling on tariffs, reigniting concerns over international trade and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Economic data released by the U.S. Commerce Department showed a contraction in GDP by 0.2% for Q1 2025, compared to a growth of 2.4% in the previous quarter, raising concerns about economic stability and leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index by 0.51%, making gold more attractive [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - The gold market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase within a triangular range, with short-term resistance at the 3340 level; a break above this level could signal a stronger upward trend [4]. - The closing price formed a bullish candlestick pattern, indicating that bullish momentum may be stronger than bearish pressure, suggesting potential for further upward movement [4]. - Technical indicators such as the MACD are showing signs of weakening momentum, while the KDJ indicator indicates a potential downward turn, suggesting a cautious approach in the near term [4].

端午节前的A股，像极了盛夏午后的蝉鸣，看似热闹，实则暗藏焦躁。成交量连续多日在万亿边缘徘 徊，透着一股观望的倦意，板块轮动快得像走马灯，早盘冲高的科技股午后就可能翻绿，前一天还领涨 的消费板块隔天就偃旗息鼓。 翻开日历来看，历史数据显示，近十年端午节后首周沪指下跌概率超60%。 这个时点恰逢银行年中流动性考核、美联储议息窗口叠加，资金天然带着避险冲动。犹记得清明假期后 那轮急跌还历历在目，而眼下市场不确定性却有增无减，海外利率波动未平，国内政策传导尚需时日， 成长板块估值又居高不下。 这种市场环境下，越来越多的朋友都把目光投向了一抹沉稳的红色K线——银行股。 为什么是银行股？ 首先，作为A股当之无愧的优秀避险性资产，红利高股息资产在市场震荡时一般会有不错的表现，会更 容易吸引资金的布局。而银行作为高估息类核心方向之一，今年以来的表现更是名列前茅，比如银行 AH指数，今年以来屡屡刷新历史新高，阶段涨幅远超中证红利指数，展现出更高的防御属性。 其次，我们可以看到，近期虽然说震荡不断，但是大盘并没有呈现快速回落态势。这背后和国家队护盘 有很大关系。而国家队救市的首选，就是加持银行股，毕竟银行股占A股总市值的比例超过 ...

美国交易所交易基金(ETF)市场正呈现两极分化态势：投资者纷纷减持黄金资产，转而涌入被称为"数字 黄金"的比特币市场。 数据显示，过去五周内，以贝莱德旗下比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)为首的美国比特币ETF累计净流入超90 亿美元，同期黄金ETF却遭遇逾28亿美元资金外流。 近期贸易紧张局势缓和削弱了黄金等传统避险资产的需求，而随着对美国财政稳定性的担忧加剧，比特 币作为替代性价值储存手段的地位正日益巩固。 本月早些时候，在稳定币法案进展等利好监管信号及宏观经济不确定性加剧的推动下，比特币一度触及 111980美元的历史高点。黄金虽然年内仍保持25%以上的涨幅，但已从近期峰值回落，当前价格较历史 高位低约190美元。 分析师表示，这种资产轮动表明市场越来越认可比特币作为合法对冲工具的地位。Jefferies全球股票策 略师Christopher Wood表示："我仍然看好黄金和比特币。在七国集团货币贬值风险面前，它们仍是最佳 对冲工具。" 不过质疑者警告称，比特币的高波动性仍阻碍其成为真正的避险资产。回顾去年8月日元套利交易平仓 等宏观冲击事件，比特币当时与其它风险资产同步暴跌。 部分机构则认为比特 ...

特朗普关税措施被叫停后，主要政府债券下跌 金十数据5月29日讯，美国联邦贸易法院驳回特朗普的全球关税，可能刺激了资金逃离主权债务等避险 资产，导致主要政府债券价格下跌。10年期日本国债收益率上升1个基点，至1.525%；美国10年期国债 收益率上升4个基点，至4.5186%；澳大利亚10年期国债收益率上升4个基点，至4.3740% ...

近期国际金价持续波动，呈现震荡下行趋势。截至2025年5月28日，伦敦现货黄金价格跌破3300美元/盎 司，报3293.68美元/盎司，较前一日下跌0.2%；国内金饰价格同步调整，周生生、周六福等品牌足金饰 品报价降至986元/克，周大福、六福珠宝为1006元/克，较月初高点回落明显。以下是具体动态与分 析： 技术性调整：前期金价快速上涨后积累的获利盘回吐，部分投资者选择抛售黄金兑现收益。 中长期支撑逻辑 地缘政治不确定性：俄乌冲突、中东局势紧张等风险事件仍存，黄金作为避险资产的中长期价值未改 变。 全球央行购金需求：中国4月黄金进口量达127.5吨，创11个月新高，持续支撑金价。 美元信用弱化：美国财政赤字扩张及债务问题引发市场对美元体系的担忧，推动黄金作为替代性储备资 产的需求。 市场现状与波动原因 短期回调驱动因素 避险情绪降温：美国推迟对欧盟加征关税的决定缓解了贸易摩擦担忧，市场风险偏好回升，黄金作为避 险资产的吸引力减弱。 美元走强：美国经济数据韧性及美联储降息预期推迟推动美元指数上涨，抑制以美元计价的黄金需求。 未来趋势展望 短期震荡延续：国际金价预计在3100-3500美元/盎司区间波动，技术面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in global market volatility highlights the growing value of bond assets for investment allocation, particularly in the context of high volatility in equity markets and a long-term downward trend in interest rates [1] Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260), established on August 4, 2017, is linked to the China 10-year Treasury Index and is seen as an ideal choice for investors looking to optimize asset structure and hedge market risks due to its good liquidity and clear risk-return characteristics [1] - Current domestic economic conditions indicate a moderate recovery, with a low probability of large-scale stimulus policies due to constraints on macro leverage, while inflation data remains low, providing room for monetary policy easing [1] - The ten-year Treasury yield serves as a benchmark for medium to long-term risk-free rates, closely related to economic growth and inflation expectations, suggesting that under a "low growth + low inflation" scenario, the interest rate floor is likely to remain low, supporting a long-term moderate increase in Treasury prices [1] Group 2: Risk and Stability - Global geopolitical risks and increased volatility in domestic equity markets are driving funds towards safe-haven assets, with historical data showing that Treasury indices often rise during significant A-share market pullbacks, underscoring their "safe-haven" attribute [1] - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF can act as a "stabilizer" in investment portfolios, effectively smoothing overall volatility [1]

这实际上反映了法币体系的内在逻辑。 1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解后，美元与黄金脱钩，美元对黄金的价值大幅贬值。 以1971年35美元/盎司为基准，2025年4月黄金价格一度超过3450美元/盎司，美元相对黄金贬值超99%。 各国货币失去了黄金锚定，通胀成为了政府征收的"隐形税"。 这背后的逻辑，也是比特币的金融学"第一性原理"之一。 2、黄金不产生有现金流，长周期没跑赢美国股市。 虽然黄金把美元秒成渣，但是-- 以1900年为基准，黄金的真实购买力基本维持不变； 而股市（如标普500）的真实回报率年化约7%。 从1801年至2014年，黄金涨到3倍，（美国）股票涨到100万倍。 这个对比揭示了黄金作为"价值储存"而非"增值工具"的本质。 1、上世纪70年代至今，美元相对黄金贬值99%。 但是过去数十年，黄金回报不错。参见下图。 1971年至2025年，黄金年化回报8.2%，标普500为7.8%，纳指为10.6%。 2005年底至2025年初，国际金价从每盎司500美元上涨至3350美元左右，年化回报率约为9.7%，同期标普500指数的年均涨幅为9.82%。 近5年，黄金年化收益率高达16.2%，标普500约为 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Index for the gold industry (931238) decreased by 1.31% as of May 27, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Mingpai Jewelry (002574) led the gains with an increase of 10.08%, while Northern Copper (000737) experienced the largest decline at 2.72% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) fell by 1.46%, with the latest price at 1.15 yuan, but showed a weekly increase of 6.38% as of May 26, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Citi's commodity analysts predict that gold prices will trade between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in the next three months, an increase from their previous estimate of $3,000 to $3,300 [2] - The China Securities Index for the gold industry (931238) includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 69.64% of the total, including Shandong Gold (600547) and Zijin Mining (601899) [2]