Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists predict that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, aligning with market expectations. However, this decision may reveal increasing policy divergence within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) compared to the consensus seen in the September meeting [1]. Group 1 - In the September meeting, only one member, Fed Governor Milan, voted against the consensus, advocating for a more aggressive rate cut [1]. - The October meeting may witness "dual dissent," with Milan potentially opposing the 25 basis point cut again, while some regional Fed presidents may advocate for maintaining the current rates, indicating hawkish dissent [1]. - Barclays anticipates that hawkish members may support the rate cut, but would not be surprised if Kansas City Fed President Schmid or Richmond Fed President Musalem votes against the cut, favoring a hold on rates [1].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share of $1.19 for Q3 2025, down from $1.36 in the previous quarter and $1.32 in Q3 2024 [5][24] - Return on average assets was 1.11% and pre-provision return on average assets was 1.61% [6] - Net interest income increased by $5.5 million compared to the previous quarter, reaching $158 million, while net interest margin improved by two basis points to 4.23% [6][27] - Non-performing assets increased by $22 million, resulting in a ratio of 83 basis points compared to 71 basis points in the linked quarter [10][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth was annualized at 6%, amounting to $174 million, net of $22 million in guaranteed loans sold during the quarter [8][16] - Deposit growth was exceptional, with an increase of $240 million in the quarter, leading to a total deposit growth of $822 million year-over-year [9][19] - Specialty deposits grew by $189 million in the quarter and $681 million year-over-year, reflecting a 22% increase [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Growth was observed in the Southwest markets, particularly in Dallas and Las Vegas, contributing to high-quality loan growth [8][14] - The company experienced solid customer deposit growth across all regions year-over-year, with non-interest-bearing accounts representing over 32% of total deposits [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating new associates from recent branch acquisitions and enhancing its presence in strong markets [12] - The strategy emphasizes organic growth and maintaining a balanced deposit base while exploring potential M&A opportunities that align with its growth objectives [59][60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding client confidence due to recent economic developments, including interest rate cuts and clarity in trade policies [12][13] - The company anticipates continued loan production and onboarding of new clients, with expectations for a strong finish to 2025 [13][34] Other Important Information - The company increased its quarterly dividend by $0.01 to $0.32 per share for Q4 2025, reflecting confidence in its financial performance [10][34] - The provision for credit losses increased to $8.4 million, primarily due to net charge-offs and an increase in non-performing loans [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide clarity on the resolution timeline for the Southern California credits and the life insurance premium finance loan? - Management indicated that the resolution for the Southern California loans may take longer than anticipated due to a secondary bankruptcy filing, while the life insurance loan is expected to be resolved through litigation, with full principal coverage assured [40][41] Question: What is the company's exposure to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs)? - The company maintains a portfolio of approximately $260 to $270 million in balances across various private lending relationships, focusing on first mortgage secured loans [42][43] Question: What is the expense outlook for the fourth quarter and into 2026? - The company expects total expenses to increase by approximately 3.5% year-over-year, with additional costs related to the branch acquisition factored in [49][50] Question: How does the company view fee income growth moving forward? - Management anticipates fee income growth to be mid-single-digit, with expectations for a rebound in the fourth quarter, although it may not reach the highs of previous quarters [50][73] Question: What are the company's priorities regarding capital deployment? - The primary focus is on organic growth, with M&A opportunities considered if they align with strategic goals; share buybacks are also on the table if suitable opportunities arise [59][76]

Core Insights - A mysterious crypto trader has opened long positions worth millions ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, which may result in interest rate cuts [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, which could enhance liquidity in the crypto market [2] - The last interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was on September 17, where rates were lowered to a range of 4%-4.25% [3] Crypto Market Activity - An on-chain analyst reported that a crypto whale deposited 3.72 million USDC into the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid and opened long positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum, leveraging 15 times [5] - The whale's positions include 300 BTC valued at $34.5 million and 4,874 ETH valued at $20.3 million, both leveraged 15 times [5] - The whale's account, opened in July, has generated a profit exceeding $5 million [6] - The total crypto market cap has shown modest growth, increasing by 0.72% in the last 24 hours to reach $3.87 trillion [6]

Economic Outlook - The upcoming week will feature significant tech earnings on Wednesday and Thursday, alongside a crucial meeting between US and Chinese leaders on Thursday [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision is anticipated, but the ongoing government shutdown complicates data availability for October, leading to uncertainty for November as well [2][9] Labor Market Insights - The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment forecast estimates an unemployment rate of 4.35% for October, showing little change from September's 4.3% [3] - Despite the lack of comprehensive data due to the shutdown, there is no indication of a significant deterioration in the labor market [4] Data Collection Challenges - The Federal Reserve's ability to gather accurate data is hindered, with the next meeting scheduled for December 10, leaving a gap in data collection for potentially one to three months [9][12] - The reliance on electronic sources for job data may allow for some estimates, but the unemployment number remains challenging to obtain due to its dependence on telephone surveys [8] Inflation and Consumer Confidence - There is a possibility of obtaining a reasonable estimate for the October CPI report if the government shutdown ends early in November, as only 2.5% of the sample is needed for a reasonable estimate [6] - Consumer confidence and jobless claims data will be monitored, although the overall data week is expected to be light due to cancellations [4][5]

Market Overview - The crypto markets saw a significant bounce, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising to $115,200 and Ether (ETH) trading at $4,160, driven by anticipation of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve [1] - Bitcoin dominance increased to 59.1%, up from a low of 57.1% six weeks ago, indicating a preference for Bitcoin over altcoins [2] Derivatives Positioning - The BVIV, measuring BTC's 30-day implied volatility, dropped to an annualized 44%, signaling reduced market stress [2] - Open interest in futures for most cryptocurrencies, excluding XRP, HYPE, and HBAR, increased, suggesting capital inflows amid the price rally [2] - Despite Bitcoin prices surpassing their October 21 high, total open interest in USDT- and USD-denominated perpetual futures remains below October 21 levels, indicating limited leveraged trader participation [2] Altcoin Performance - The bounce in the crypto market positively affected altcoins, with Zcash (ZEC) and Ethena (ENA) posting double-digit gains [2] - Older tokens like Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Dash (DASH) also saw increases of 8% and 9.5%, respectively, while Ether (ETH) surged back into bullish territory at $4,150 [2] - Newly-released tokens Plasma (XPL) and Aster (ASTER) faced significant declines, with Plasma dropping from an initial high of $1.67 to $0.36 and Aster losing 43% of its value over the past month [2]

五人分别是：现任美联储理事Christopher Waller和Michelle Bowman，前美联储理事Kevin Warsh，白宫国家经济 委员会主任Kevin Hassett，以及贝莱德（BlackRock Inc.）高管Rick Rieder。特朗普本人对媒体确认，他预计在年底 前就提名人选做出最终决定。 随着现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期临近，下任主席的遴选工作已进入最后阶段。 据报道，财政部长贝森特周一在"空军一号"上对媒体表示， 美联储主席的候选人范围已缩小至五人。 他们分别是： 现任 美联储理事Christopher Waller和Michelle Bowman，前美联储理事Kevin Warsh，白宫国家经济委员会主任Kevin Hassett，以及贝莱德（BlackRock Inc.）高管Rick Rieder。 贝森特透露，他计划进行新一轮面试，并希望在感恩节假期后向总统特朗普提交一份"优秀的候选人名单"。特朗普本人也 对媒体确认， 他预计在年底前就提名人选做出最终决定。 五人角逐美联储帅位 由财长贝森特确认的这份五人名单，囊括了来自美联储内部、白宫以及华尔街的资深人士。贝森特本人正主导此 ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has rebounded 14% since January and is on track for double-digit returns for the third consecutive year, a rare occurrence since its inception in 1957 [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point in September, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 after a lengthy pause due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and their impact on inflation and employment [5][6] - Historically, the stock market has performed well following such rate cuts, with a median return of 13% in the year after the first cut when rates were held steady for at least six months [7][8] Market Valuation Concerns - Despite the positive historical performance associated with rate cuts, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that stocks are currently richly valued, with the S&P 500 trading at 22.7 times forward earnings, a level seen only during two previous periods [8] Potential Market Upside - If the S&P 500 follows historical trends, it could advance 13% to reach 7,494 over the next year, implying a 12% upside from its current level of 6,700. The potential upside increases to 15% if the economy avoids a recession [9]

特朗普政府称，因调查员无法外出采集数据，劳工统计局将无法完成通胀报告。此前受停摆影响，9月 通胀数据已延迟九天公布。 分析指出，通胀数据缺失将使美联储在调整利率与评估物价走势时面临更大不确定性。 据央视新闻10月25日消息，当地时间10月24日，央视记者获悉，美国白宫表示，由于政府停摆已进入第 四周，下月可能无法发布通胀数据，这将是七十多年来首次。 美政府史上第二长"停摆"持续图解9大项负面影响 据央视新闻，截至当地时间10月24日，美国联邦政府"停摆"已经进入第24天，临时拨款法案在国会一再 受阻。 继10月22日，创下历史上第二长的政府"关门"纪录后，这次政府"停摆"的时间还在不断拉长。 有美国媒体发布了一张图，解读政府"停摆"给美国社会生活带来的9大项影响。 美国有线电视新闻网10月23日发布了一张图片，显示"停摆"对社会各方面的负面影响进一步凸显。 图片来源：央视新闻 民航飞机延误 在航空领域，随着"停摆"僵局持续，被要求无薪上岗的6万多名空中交通管制员和机场安检人员陷入越 来越大的财务压力，因超长时间上岗而请病假的员工也日渐增多。美国联邦航空管理局23日表示，随着 图片来源：央视新闻视频截图 政府" ...

Market Overview - U.S. markets opened positively with small cap-focused Russell 2000 rising by 1.22%, while large cap indexes such as Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow increased by 0.87%, 0.62%, and 0.51% respectively after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released softer than expected [1] - The Consumer Price Index came in at 3% year-over-year, with a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while Core CPI also rose by 3% YoY and 0.2% MoM, which was below analysts' expectations [2] Economic Indicators - The CPI report is significant as it is the first major government-issued report since the recent government shutdown, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) bringing back employees to prepare the report for the annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients [3] - Current CPI numbers are not expected to influence the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, following a previous rate cut in September [4] Company Movements - Comfort Systems USA saw a significant increase of 17% in premarket trading, driven by positive earnings reports [5] - Other notable movers include SLM Corp (+8.6%), Intel (+6.8%), SS&C Technologies (+3.86%), and Ford (+3.8%), all benefiting from their earnings reports released the previous evening [6] - HCA Healthcare increased by 4.05% after raising annual forecasts due to strong demand for medical services, while Procter & Gamble rose by 3.47% despite warning of a "bifurcation" in consumer spending [6]

Core Insights - The consumer sector has shown surprising resilience over the past five years, but recent data indicates potential cracks in consumer spending behavior, particularly among higher-income groups [2][4][11] Consumer Behavior - The New York Fed survey indicates that expectations regarding income after inflation are deteriorating most significantly among high-income consumers, while lower-income consumers are already under stress [3][4] - Spending on services, which typically remains stable, is beginning to decline, suggesting that consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending habits [8][10] - Despite the cautious sentiment, higher-income consumers have been sustaining their spending, but they are starting to notice economic changes and adjust their behaviors accordingly [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Given the current consumer sentiment and spending trends, the outlook for consumer discretionary investments appears less bullish, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies [13][14] - Financials may benefit from a potential economic downturn or interest rate cuts, as they typically perform well in volatile market conditions [14][18] - Caution is advised in sectors like housing, where buying activity is low despite ongoing discussions about housing shortages [15]