随后公布的数据显示，经济和劳动力市场表现好于预期，这进一步证明了保持谨慎立场的必要性。周 二，交易员预计11月降息的可能性为三分之一，年底前降息的可能性仅为50%。 这些数据对里夫斯和英国首相基尔·斯塔默来说也是一个打击，他们上任时承诺要改善"劳动人民"的生 活水平。然而，由于通胀回升与劳动力市场降温，实际收入的复苏正在逐渐停滞。批评人士将通胀回升 与劳动力市场降温归咎于他们去年10月份提出的增税预算。 7月份英国通胀率连续第二个月攀升，这给英国央行增加了重新考虑降息步伐的压力。英国国家统计局 周三公布，英国7月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%，高于6月份的3.6%，并创下2024年1月以来的最 大涨幅。此次价格上涨主要受机票、酒店和汽车燃油价格上涨的推动。 服务业通胀率是衡量潜在价格压力的良好指标，该指数攀升至5%，高于英国央行预测的4.9%。通胀数 据公布后，英镑兑美元汇率收复部分跌幅，基本持平于1.3492。 这些数据进一步证明，企业正在对英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯4月份大幅提高税收和最低工资标准做出 反应，将数亿英镑的额外成本转嫁给消费者。食品价格涨幅加快至 4.9%，高于前一个月的4.5%， ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision was influenced by stagnant economic recovery in Q2 and anticipated further cooling of inflation [1] - Current inflation is near the upper limit of the RBNZ's target range (1% to 3%), with expectations of a decline to around 2% by mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - Since August 2024, the RBNZ has cumulatively reduced interest rates by 250 basis points, one of the largest reductions among major Western economies [2] - Global monetary policy remains divergent, with various central banks taking different stances on interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its current rates but is widely expected to initiate its first rate cut of the year in September [2]

从解雇劳工统计局局长，到要求高盛换经济学家，美国媒体评价说，特朗普处理"不合意"数据的方式无 非两种——要么改数据，要么换人。 新华财经北京8月15日电 美国高盛集团日前发布研究报告认为，美国消费者将承担美国关税政策成本中 越来越大的份额。美国总统特朗普针对这一观点发文表示，高盛集团经济学家"应该换人"，业余爱 好"打碟"的集团首席执行官应专注其副业。 《华尔街日报》报道说，从实际情况看，高盛经济学家团队的预测较为准确：近几个月来，美国就业增 长放缓至16年来最低水平；顽固的通货膨胀率不降反升；2025年美国经济增长乏力。 特朗普：高盛CEO要么换经济学家，要么去搞副业 高盛10日发布的最新报告认为，截至今年6月，美国消费者已承担22%的关税成本。随着越来越多企业 转嫁关税成本，预计到今年10月，美国消费者承担的比例将达到67%。 特朗普12日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文批评高盛首席执行官戴维·所罗门及其经济研究团队，称 其对关税的相关预测"错了"。"大多数情况下，承担这些关税（成本）的根本不是消费者，主要是公司 和政府，其中许多是外国（公司和政府）。" 特朗普在帖文中不点名批评牵头完成上述研究报告的高盛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent PPI data release in the U.S. has significantly altered market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a substantial rate cut in September [2][4][6]. Group 1: PPI Data Impact - The U.S. July PPI year-on-year rate was reported at 3.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.5% [2]. - The month-on-month PPI for July was 0.9%, also exceeding the previous value of 0.00% and market expectations of 0.20% [2]. - Experts noted that the impact of PPI data is more significant than that of CPI data, as PPI reflects price pressures at the production level [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Response - Following the PPI data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped to around 85%, down from 100% [4]. - Comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated a shift in sentiment, with concerns about the necessity of a 50 basis point cut being dismissed [4]. - The core PCE inflation rate, a favored inflation measure by the Fed, is expected to rise from 2.8% to 2.9%, influenced by tariffs [4]. Group 3: Political Reactions - President Trump, who had previously pressured Fed Chair Powell for rate cuts, has remained silent following the PPI data release, indicating a shift in the political narrative [6]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has also begun to find excuses for previous statements regarding rate cuts, suggesting a retreat from aggressive rhetoric [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a high of 3374.9 and a low of 3329.8, ultimately closing at 3334.9 [8]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of further declines in gold prices, targeting levels around 3330 and potentially lower [9][11].

Core Insights - Greece's inflation rate increased slightly from 3.6% in June to 3.7% in July, continuing to exceed the Eurozone average [1] - The Eurozone's overall inflation rate remained at 2% in July, with core inflation at 2.4%, showing a minor decrease of 0.1% month-on-month [1] - Greece's inflation has been above the EU average since October of the previous year, indicating persistent structural weaknesses in the Greek economy [1] Economic Challenges - Key factors driving inflation in Greece include issues in the food sector, housing, and energy costs [1] - The government has not effectively addressed the long-term structural problems contributing to these inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs released a report indicating that U.S. consumers bore 22% of the tariff costs from April to June 2023, and this figure is projected to rise to 67% by October if current tariff policies remain unchanged [1][2] - The report contradicts President Trump's assertion that other countries bear the brunt of the tariffs, leading to a public dispute between Trump and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon [1] - Other financial institutions have echoed concerns about rising prices due to tariffs, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index increasing by 0.2% in July and an annual inflation rate of 2.7% reported [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the inflation rate in the U.S. could reach 3.2% by the end of the year, while it would have been 2.4% without the impact of tariffs [2] - Oxford Economics predicts an even higher inflation rate of 3.8% by year-end, highlighting the broader economic implications of the current tariff policies [2]

来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张嘉怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 泰国央行将基准利率下调0.25个百分点 中新社曼谷8月13日电 (记者 李映民)泰国央行货币政策委员会13日决定将基准利率下调0.25个百分点， 由1.75%降至1.50%，并即刻生效。 货币政策委员会指出，尽管2025年泰国经济增速与此前预测接近，但美国加征关税将进一步加剧结构性 问题并削弱竞争力，一些经济领域的脆弱性正加深，尤其是中小企业。同时，整体通胀率受供给因素影 响处于低位。在此背景下，委员会决定降息。 数据显示，2025年上半年泰国经济增长主要受益于电子产品出口、对美出口加快以及制造业扩张，但展 望下半年，受美国关税政策直接和间接影响，加之旅游及相关行业面临压力，中小企业、雇员及自由职 业者面临冲击，私人消费增速或将放缓。 货币政策委员会强调，将继续关注信贷扩张及汇率变动对经济活动的影响，并配合采取措施降低融资成 本、缓解弱势群体债务压力。 货币政策委员会重申，将在保持物价稳定的同时，兼顾经济可持续增长和金融体系稳定。未来货币政策 应维持在适度宽松水平，以支持经济增长，同时平衡中期经济金融稳定与有限的政策空间。(完) 本文为转载内容，授权 ...

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the U.S. rose slightly in July to 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from June, while the overall CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Month-on-month, the core CPI increased from 0.23% in June to 0.32% in July, aligning with market expectations[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month growth rate decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.20% in July[1] Labor Market Insights - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 104,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July[1] - Average hourly wage growth showed an increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, despite the overall labor market data weakening[1] Price Trends - Core goods prices saw a slight month-on-month increase to 0.21% in July, with notable declines in clothing and furniture prices[2] - Transportation goods inflation turned positive in July at 0.22%, reversing a decline of -0.38% in June[2] - Super core service prices rose by 0.19 percentage points to 0.55%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel[2] Tariff Impact - Current tariff policies are estimated to raise the U.S. inflation rate by 0.8% to 1.6%[5] - The average tariff rate is projected to be around 20%, higher than the previous 17% during the 90-day suspension period[5] - The new tariff framework categorizes countries into three groups, affecting their respective tariff rates significantly[4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts starting in September, with two 25 basis point cuts anticipated this year[6] - The July inflation data and the downward revision of employment figures from May and June provide sufficient rationale for potential rate cuts[6] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium may offer further insights into the Fed's future monetary policy direction[6]

（原标题：英国央行下调基准利率） 值得关注的是，英国6月年通胀率意外升至3.6%，为18个月新高，主要受汽油和食 品价格上升推动。经济方面，英国已连续两个月出现负增长，失业率升至4.7%，为近 四年高点。财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯表示，此次降息将有助于减轻家庭与企业的贷款和 按揭负担，是一项"受欢迎的"政策。 斯通社8月7日伦敦消息，英国央行英格兰银行今日宣布将基准利率下调0.25个百分 点至4%，为两年半以来最低水平。与此同时，英国央行将2025年全年经济增长预期上 调至1.25%，调高0.25个百分点。此次降息符合市场预期，旨在缓解美国上调进口关税 对英国经济造成的压力。尽管英方表示美国关税的直接影响低于预期，但整体的不确 定性已削弱市场信心与消费意愿。自去年8月开启降息周期以来，这是第五次降息。行 长贝利指出，未来进一步下调利率将"谨慎而逐步"进行。 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index reached a new high, rising by 1.1%, driven by the latest consumer price index report that reinforced expectations of a likely interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][4] - The July core inflation rate in the U.S. rose to its highest level since the beginning of the year, but moderate increases in goods prices alleviated concerns about tariff-driven price pressures [1] - Airline stocks were among the best-performing sectors, benefiting from a decline in oil prices [3] Group 2 - The Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin indicated uncertainty remains regarding whether the Federal Reserve should focus more on controlling inflation or boosting the job market, but noted that economic uncertainty is diminishing [1] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid expressed support for keeping interest rates unchanged temporarily to prevent economic strength from pushing inflation pressures higher [2]