Group 1: Market Insights - The defensive dividend assets in the stock market may become a core safe haven for funds amid the "tariff storm" [3] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is weakening as the Trump administration proposes to replace short-term bonds with 100-year zero-coupon bonds [3][18] Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - Under the current tariff situation, risk assets are experiencing significant declines, while safe-haven assets are gaining, with the domestic 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.6% [3] - Chinese assets are expected to show resilience compared to global markets in the short term, with opportunities outweighing risks if policy responses are appropriate [4] - The consumer and investment sectors are expected to benefit from domestic demand policies, presenting short-term trading opportunities [4] Group 3: Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors have seen a rise of 3.18% due to increased domestic prices following U.S. tariffs on agricultural imports [10] - The power equipment and new energy sectors are underperforming due to concerns over profit impacts from trade conflicts [10] Group 4: Macro and Fixed Income - The monetary policy is expected to continue pushing nominal interest rates down, with potential acceleration in easing measures in the second quarter [16] - The domestic bond market is viewed positively, with expectations of further declines in bond yields as the economic impact of tariffs unfolds [16] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategies - A neutral to defensive allocation strategy is recommended, emphasizing the importance of safe-haven assets like bonds and gold [20] - The A-share market should consider a combination of dividend/value and technology stocks in a barbell strategy, while being cautious of sectors with high overseas revenue exposure [20]

DDR5 渗透提升且子代持续迭，第三子代RCD 芯片于4Q24 开始规模出货。分业务看，2024 年公司互连 类芯片收入33.49 亿元(YoY +53.31%)，占比92%，毛利率提高1.30pct 至62.66%；津逮服务器平台收入 2.80 亿元(YoY+199%)，占比8%，毛利率提高0.74pct 至4.75%。随着支持DDR5 的主流服务器及客户端 CPU 平台陆续上市，DDR5 内存在下游市场的渗透率不断提高，且其子代持续迭代更新。2024 年公司 DDR5 内存接口芯片出货量超过DDR4 内存接口芯片，DDR5 内部子代中第二子代RCD 芯片出货量超过 第一子代产品，第三子代RCD 芯片于4Q24 开始规模出货，第五子代RCD 芯片已顺利向客户送样。 2024 年收入增长59%，1Q25 收入和归母净利润均创季度新高。公司2024 年实现收入36.39 亿元(YoY +59.20%)，归母净利润14.12 亿元(YoY +213%)，扣非归母净利润12.48 亿元(YoY +237%)，毛利率下降 0.8pct 至58.13%。其中4Q24 营收10.68 亿元(YoY +40%, QoQ + ...

【环球网财经综合报道】近期全球市场受关税政策扰动加剧，A股波动显著，避险情绪升温。多家头部券商与公 募基金密集发声，围绕权益市场、行业配置、宏观政策及资产布局展开深度研判。机构普遍认为，短期避险需求 下红利资产、债市及黄金或成资金"避风港"，而科技成长与内需消费板块的中长期配置价值正逐步显现。 在权益市场方面，中信证券指出，关税风波下风险资产承压，债市走牛逻辑清晰，具备高股息属性的红利资产或 成资金抵御波动的核心选择。中金公司李求索认为，中国资产中期机会大于风险，若政策应对得当，市场风险溢 价有望继续好转，短期建议以红利低波为主，中期关注AI产业回调后的布局机会。华夏基金强调，尽管关税争端 持续扰动市场，但中国科技企业的供应链韧性较强，以AI终端与应用为核心的产业趋势未改，本轮调整或带来年 内最佳买点。 在行业配置方面，申万宏源分析称，央企凭借稳定的国内市场需求、高ROE及抗关税冲击能力，当前具备显著配 置价值。中庚基金指出，中美关税博弈推升国内农产品价格预期，农林牧渔行业短期受益；而新能源板块因海外 需求不确定性承压，市场避险情绪升温。 此外，中金公司预计，二季度货币政策放松或加快，资金利率中枢下行将支撑债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, 澜起科技, is expected to achieve significant growth in its financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong demand in the AI industry and increased sales of DDR5 memory interface and high-performance chips [1][2][3] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.1 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 128.28% to 146.19% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.59% to 26.82% [2][3] - Estimated operating revenue for Q1 2025 is approximately 12.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 65.78% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of about 14.42% [2][3] - The sales revenue from interconnect chips is projected to be around 11.39 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 63.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.19% [2][3] Growth Drivers - The growth is attributed to three main factors: 1. Increased demand for DDR5 memory interface and module supporting chips due to the AI industry trend, leading to a significant rise in sales volume [3] 2. Sales revenue from three high-performance chips (PCIe Retimer, MRCD/MDB, and CKD) reached 1.35 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 155% [3] 3. Improved gross margin for interconnect chip products as the sales of DDR5 memory interface and high-performance chips increase [3] Historical Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 36.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.12 billion yuan, up 213.1% [4] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a single-quarter revenue of 10.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.43%, and a net profit of 4.34 billion yuan, up 99.72% [4]

Key Insights on Local Government Bonds - The local government bonds can be classified based on project revenue attributes into general bonds and special bonds, and based on funding purposes into new bonds and refinancing bonds [2][4] - The average issuance term of local government bonds has increased from 6.3 years in 2015 to 14.8 years by February 2025, influenced by the relaxation of special bond issuance policies [5][11] - The total issuance scale of local government bonds is expected to reach around 1 trillion yuan in 2025, with new general bonds at 80 billion yuan and new special bonds at 440 billion yuan, showing a slight increase from 2024 [11][12] Key Insights on the Technology Sector - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US may provide short-term protection for domestic tech industries but could weaken innovation and competitiveness in the long run [14] - The tariffs may lead to trade partner retaliation, increasing operational costs and uncertainties for tech companies in affected countries like China, while also accelerating their push for technological self-reliance [14][19] - The impact of tariffs on the tech sector is complex, with potential for both challenges and opportunities as companies adapt to new market conditions [14][19] Key Insights on the Military Industry - The military sector is expected to benefit from the current geopolitical tensions, with the US's tariff policies having limited impact on domestic military industries due to their high level of self-sufficiency [18][22] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War is anticipated to serve as a catalyst for the military industry, with increased investment opportunities [22] - The military sector's valuation is currently at 44.9%, indicating significant room for growth compared to the tech sector [22] Key Insights on the Chemical Industry - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 60-70 USD per barrel, with industry cost pressures easing but requiring attention to inventory conversion losses [31][33] - The domestic economic stimulus policies are likely to enhance the potential for structural opportunities within the chemical industry, particularly in response to increased domestic demand [33]

重要的消息有哪些 1．昨日一早，中国人民银行和中央汇金公司重磅发声。中央汇金明确了自己是资本市场上的"国家队"，发挥着类"平准基金"作用。央行表示，必要时向中央汇金公 司提供充足的再贷款支持。（新华社） 2．4月8日，中国诚通控股集团有限公司董事会决定，根据中国人民银行、金融监管总局和中国证监会关于股票回购增持再贷款的相关规定，中国诚通拟使用股票 回购增持再贷款资金1000亿元，用于增持上市公司股票。作为国务院国资委的国有资本运营平台，中国诚通将始终以服务国家战略为导向，发挥长期资本、耐心资 本、战略资本作用，坚定维护资本市场稳定运行，努力为我国经济社会高质量发展作出积极贡献。 3．4月8日，全国社会保障基金理事会发布公告称，近日已主动增持国内股票，近期将继续增持。在积极开展股票投资的同时实现基金安全和保值增值。 12．4月8日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开座谈会，邀请江苏天合光能、浙江中基宁波、广东领益智造、北京滴滴出行、山东歌尔股份等5家民营企业与 会，听取宏观政策在微观主体的落实情况及建议，听取应对美加征关税的举措及建议，听取稳外贸、稳就业的意见及建议。国家发展改革委副主任郑备出席会议。 会上，5位 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国服务器龙头新华三集团(H3C)的一则客户通告，揭开了全球AI芯片市场暗涌的 危机。这份内部文件直指英伟达(NVDA.US)H20芯片面临"国际供应链重大不确定性"，库存已逼近红 线，预计4月中旬才能等来新批次到货。这款被美国出口管制规则允许对华销售的顶级AI芯片，正遭遇 前所未有的供应危机。 地缘政治阴霾成为关键变量。新华三在通告中坦言，全球贸易环境恶化与原材料政策波动，让本已脆弱 的供应链雪上加霜。更棘手的是，4月20日后的供货计划仍笼罩在原材料管控、物流中断、生产瓶颈等 多重不确定性中。 新华三已启动"利润优先"的配货原则，长期稳定且高利润客户将获得优先权。这背后折射出市场供需的 严重失衡——H20作为英伟达在华销售的最先进芯片，自2023年美国升级出口禁令后，已成为中国企业 获取高端算力的"独木桥"。 国产替代方案正在加速突围。华为昇腾系列与寒武纪智芯已推出对标产品，但性能差距仍待市场检验。 值得注意的是，美国官员年初曾考虑进一步收紧H20对华出口，若成真，中国AI产业或将面临更严峻的 挑战。 作为英伟达在华主要合作伙伴，新华三与浪潮、联想等厂商共同承载着中国AI算力底座的重任。 ...