Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment in deposit rates will directly impact millions of savers and provide crucial support to the profitability of financial institutions amid ongoing pressure from narrowing net interest margins [1] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks will lower the RMB deposit rates starting May 20, following the central bank's interest rate cut [2] - The highest reduction in deposit rates will be 25 basis points, affecting various types of deposit products, including current, fixed-term, and notice deposits [2] - Specific adjustments include a reduction of 5 basis points for current deposits to 0.05%, and fixed-term deposits will see reductions ranging from 15 to 25 basis points [2] Group 2: Policy Linkage - The deposit rate adjustment is a direct response to the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) recent policy interest rate cut of 10 basis points [3] - The PBOC has indicated that the adjustment in policy rates will guide commercial banks to lower deposit rates through a self-discipline mechanism [3] - The complete interest rate transmission path involves the impact of policy rate adjustments on money market rates, bond market rates, and ultimately on loan and deposit rates [3] Group 3: Banking Profitability - As of Q1, the net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.43%, down from 1.52% in the previous quarter, significantly below the regulatory acceptable level of 1.8% [4] - The continuous decline in net interest margins poses a severe challenge to the basic profitability of the banking sector [4] - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to alleviate some pressure on banks' interest margins [4] Group 4: Market Expectations - The PBOC is expected to announce a corresponding 10 basis point reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on May 20, following the recent policy rate cut [5] - The simultaneous reduction in LPR and deposit rates will help balance the asset and liability sides of the banking system, supporting net interest margins and benefiting the real economy by lowering corporate financing costs [5] Group 5: Impact on Savers - The new round of deposit rate cuts will lower the opportunity cost of holding cash for savers, potentially driving more funds into stock markets, bond markets, and wealth management products [6]

Core Insights - The banking industry in China is showing a trend of "stable growth, structural adjustment, and risk control" as of Q1 2025, with total assets reaching 458.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [1][2] Asset Quality - The total non-performing loan (NPL) balance increased to 3.4 trillion yuan, up by 157.4 billion yuan from the previous quarter, resulting in a non-performing loan ratio of 1.51%, which is a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points [1][7] - Despite the rise in NPLs, the proportion of special mention loans decreased to 2.18%, indicating a reduction in potential risk loans [8] Regulatory Indicators - Key regulatory indicators such as capital adequacy ratio and provision coverage ratio remain strong, with the capital adequacy ratio at 15.28% and the provision coverage ratio at 208.13% [1][8] - The banking sector's risk resilience is further supported by a decrease in the NPL ratio by approximately 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, alongside a 10 percentage point increase in provision coverage ratio [8] Loan Growth and Focus Areas - The banking sector has shown significant growth in loans to small and micro enterprises, with a balance of 35.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [2][3] - Loans in key areas such as technology SMEs and green finance continue to grow at rates higher than the overall loan growth, with growth rates of 12.2% and 9.3% respectively [3] Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin (NIM) for commercial banks has continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 1.43% in Q1 2025, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed compared to previous periods [4][5] - The decline in NIM is attributed to pressures from lower loan pricing and insufficient credit demand, but improvements in liability management have helped mitigate some of these pressures [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the banking sector, with expected revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks in 2025 projected at approximately -1% and 0% respectively [3][9]. Core Insights - The overall revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks in Q1 2025 were -1.7% and -1.2% year-on-year, reflecting a decline compared to Q4 2024 [3][9]. - The performance of different types of banks varied significantly, with city and rural commercial banks leading in growth due to improved scale and net interest margin, while state-owned banks showed weaker performance [3][10]. - The net interest margin for listed banks in Q1 2025 was 1.37%, a decrease of 13 basis points year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the previous year [3][9]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Overview - Listed banks experienced a decline in revenue and net profit growth rates, with Q1 2025 figures at -1.7% and -1.2% respectively, marking a drop of 1.8 percentage points and 3.5 percentage points from Q4 2024 [3][9]. - The decline in net interest income was attributed to a narrowing interest margin and challenges in volume compensating for price [9]. Asset Quality and Provisioning - The asset quality remained stable, with a decrease in non-performing loan ratios and a reduction in provisioning pressure, as banks continued to report lower provisions in a challenging income environment [3][9]. - The provision coverage ratio for listed banks decreased to 238% in Q1 2025, reflecting a trend of reduced provisioning amid stable asset quality [3][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's configuration value is enhanced by both fundamental and liquidity factors, with a focus on key index-weighted stocks such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3][9]. - The report highlights the potential for mid-sized banks to attract capital for growth, particularly in the context of capital replenishment and profitability [3][9].

Core Insights - The banking sector in China shows growth in total assets and financial services, with total assets reaching 458.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [1] - The balance of inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises reached 35.3 trillion yuan, growing by 12.5% year-on-year, while inclusive agricultural loans increased to 13.7 trillion yuan, up by 795.5 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] - The overall asset quality of commercial banks remains stable, but there is an increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) and NPL ratios, with NPLs rising to 3.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 157.4 billion yuan from the previous quarter, and an NPL ratio of 1.51%, up by 0.01 percentage points [1] Regulatory Indicators - The banking capital adequacy ratio and insurance solvency ratio are stable and improving, with the NPL ratio decreasing by approximately 0.1 percentage points year-on-year and the provision coverage ratio increasing by about 10 percentage points [2] - In the first quarter, commercial banks achieved a net profit of 656.8 billion yuan, with both average capital return on equity and average asset return on equity rising, although the net interest margin has narrowed [2] Profit Growth Strategies - To alleviate profit growth pressure, banks should optimize their business structure, enhance investment banking and wealth management, and improve non-interest income ratios [3] - Banks are advised to implement refined pricing management and strengthen risk control to lower credit costs, with the current provision coverage ratio at 208.13% providing a buffer against margin pressure [3] Capital Adequacy - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks (excluding foreign bank branches) was 15.28%, with a tier one capital adequacy ratio of 12.18% and a core tier one capital adequacy ratio of 10.70%, all within reasonable ranges but showing a slight decline from the previous quarter [3] - The decline in capital adequacy ratios is attributed to rapid asset expansion, an increase in NPLs, and slowing profit growth, indicating a growing balance pressure between credit expansion and risk resistance [3] Capital Supplementation - Banks are encouraged to actively respond to the pressure of declining capital adequacy ratios by solidifying their capital base, utilizing various channels for capital replenishment, including issuing ordinary shares, preferred shares, and convertible bonds [4] - The Ministry of Finance has announced the issuance of 500 billion yuan in special government bonds to support major banks in replenishing core tier one capital [4] - Banks should enhance internal capital accumulation by improving profitability and optimizing asset structures to focus on high-quality asset investments while reducing high-risk, low-efficiency assets [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The accumulation of OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) floating profits in banks has been largely consumed, primarily due to passive consumption from a weak bond market rather than active selling by banks. The pressure on net interest margins is mainly observed in large banks, and with the alleviation of the "lack of liabilities" issue in Q2, a clearer bottom for net interest margins is expected [1][15]. Group 1: OCI Floating Profit Consumption - Most banks have consumed over half of their OCI floating profit accumulation, with some banks even turning to floating losses. Among the six major banks, one has consumed about half of its floating profit accumulation, while others have consumed around one-third. In total, 25 out of 33 listed banks have consumed more than half of their OCI floating profits, with 7 turning to floating losses [2][5]. - The low performance of bond market investment returns has significantly dragged down the revenue performance of listed banks. In Q1, non-interest income reduced the revenue growth of joint-stock banks and city commercial banks by 3.81 percentage points and 6.42 percentage points, respectively, while the contribution to rural commercial banks dropped from 7.30 percentage points to 4.52 percentage points [2][5]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The pressure on net interest margins and the resistance to recovery are primarily seen in large banks, which have passively shifted to interbank certificates of deposit and interbank fixed deposits due to a "lack of liabilities" in Q1. The average net interest margin for large banks narrowed by 0.10 percentage points to a low of 1.39% in Q1 [15]. - The alleviation of the "lack of liabilities" pressure and the stabilization of interbank deposit scale and prices are expected to lead to a significant easing of net interest margin narrowing pressure for large banks in Q2, reflecting the effectiveness of previous measures to reduce funding costs [15]. Group 3: Retail Loan Risks - Risks in retail loans remain, with no consistent trend of alleviation observed. Banks with a higher proportion of retail loans face greater difficulty in reducing non-performing loan rates compared to their peers, and the speed of provision consumption is faster [9]. - An analysis of three state-owned banks with retail loan ratios exceeding 50% shows a divergence in the direction and magnitude of changes in provision coverage ratios, the proportion of loans under scrutiny, and non-performing loan rates [9].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [3] Core Insights - The central bank is unlikely to restart government bond purchases in the short term due to macro-prudential considerations and the current state of the bond market [1][9][11] - The central bank's recent report indicates a focus on preventing excessive reductions in loan pricing, emphasizing a bottom-line thinking approach to loan pricing [2][14][15] - A significant probability exists for deposit rate cuts to be implemented in the second quarter, which is expected to improve the net interest margin by 3 basis points [3][16][21] Summary by Sections 1. Government Bond Purchase Operations - The central bank will continue to observe and assess the bond market, indicating no immediate need to restart bond purchases [1][9] - The 10-year government bond yield has recently dropped to a low range of 1.6%-1.7%, suggesting a demand for support from the central bank [11][12] - The decision to restart operations will depend on market supply and demand, with current conditions not necessitating immediate action [10][12] 2. Loan Pricing Signals - The report details the distribution of loan pricing reductions, indicating a trend towards more significant reductions [2][14] - The central bank aims to prevent loan rates from falling below the breakeven point, which is crucial for maintaining banks' net interest margins [15] - Recent regulatory measures have been introduced to curb excessively low loan pricing, particularly for corporate loans and consumer loans [14][15] 3. Deposit Rate Cuts - The central bank has indicated a likely reduction in deposit rates, which typically precedes a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3][16] - Historical patterns show that deposit rate cuts often lead to subsequent adjustments in policy rates and LPR [16][18] - The expected deposit rate cuts are projected to save interest expenses of approximately 884 billion, improving the net interest margin by 3 basis points [21][25]

Core Viewpoint - Bank stocks have shown resilience and have risen against the market trend, with the China Securities Bank Index reaching a new high since February 2018, driven by multiple favorable policies and market conditions [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On May 13, the China Securities Bank Index rose by 1.53% to close at 7629.55 points, marking a new high since February 2018, with many individual stocks hitting historical highs [1][2]. - Over the last five trading days, the bank sector has increased by 5.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.77% [2]. - Notable individual stock performances include Chongqing Bank and Shanghai Bank, both rising over 3%, with Chongqing Bank leading with a 10.9% increase [2]. Policy Impact - Recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are expected to have a neutral impact on banks' net interest margins, with adjustments on the liability side helping to mitigate pressures [1][6][7]. - The establishment of Financial Asset Investment Companies (AIC) is seen as a significant opportunity for banks to enhance their comprehensive benefits and support technology enterprises [3][4][5]. Earnings and Profitability - Despite the pressure on profitability, bank stocks remain attractive due to their stability and dividend yields, especially as regulatory measures encourage long-term capital inflows [3][4]. - The average net interest margin for listed banks is projected to be 1.52% by the end of 2024, continuing a five-year decline, with a notable decrease in interest income reported for the previous year [6][8]. Strategic Adjustments - Banks are adapting to the low-interest-rate environment by diversifying their income sources and optimizing their operational structures to maintain profitability [8][9]. - The focus on non-interest income generation is becoming increasingly critical for banks to navigate the challenges posed by a shrinking net interest margin [8][9].

自2014年首批民营银行试点启动以来已有十年时间，近期，19家民营银行交出了2024年业绩 成绩单。 从资产规模看，截至去年末，上述银行资产规模合计达2.15万亿元，同比增长9.5%。其中， 微众银行和网商银行总资产保持断层领先，前者突破6500亿元，后者达到4710亿元。值得注 意的是，亿联银行、三湘银行、振兴银行去年末总资产较上年末缩减，分别下滑21%、 10.46%和2.35%。 2024年，微众银行和网商银行总资产保持断层领先，前者突破6500亿元，后者达到4710亿 元。 经营业绩方面，去年，19家民营银行合计实现营收934.17亿元，同比增长近2%；合计实现 净利润187.92亿元，同比下降超10%。其中更有近一半民营银行盈利水平出现下降，而中关 村银行、蓝海银行、三湘银行、民商银行、振兴银行营收及净利均双双下降。 亿联银行资产规模缩减超20%， | 名称 | 资产总额 | 增速 | 营业收入 | 帮速 | 净利润 | 增速 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | (%) | (亿元) | (%) | (亿元) | (%) ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed banks reported a decline in both operating income and net profit for Q1 2025, attributed to narrowing net interest margins and negative growth in non-interest income, although core revenue capacity showed marginal improvement [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - Total operating income for the listed banks reached 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year [1]. - The overall net interest margin decreased by 13 basis points to 1.43%, with a smaller decline compared to the previous year's 17 basis points [5][7]. Individual Bank Performance - Among state-owned banks, Bank of China had the highest revenue growth at 2.56%, while Agricultural Bank of China led in net profit growth at 2.2% [5]. - In the joint-stock banks category, Minsheng Bank reported a revenue increase of 7.41% but a net profit decline of 5.13% [5]. - Qingdao Bank showed strong performance in city commercial banks with a revenue growth of 9.69% and a net profit increase of 16.42% [5]. Income Composition - Interest income for listed banks fell by 1.7% year-on-year, with both net interest margin contraction and negative non-interest income impacting revenue [5][9]. - Non-interest income saw a significant decline of 4% year-on-year, primarily due to bond market volatility and a high base effect from the previous year [9]. Asset Quality - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for the listed banks was 1.23%, a slight decrease of 1 basis point from the end of 2024 [10][11]. - The overall asset quality pressure has eased, with a stable NPL generation rate of approximately 0.67% [12][13]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict that net interest margins will continue to narrow throughout the year, but the decline may be less severe due to improvements in deposit costs and supportive policies [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company with a target price of 6.36 CNY / 5.04 HKD [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 164.93 billion CNY in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.56%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.90% to 54.36 billion CNY [1][6]. - Non-interest income was a significant contributor to revenue growth, with a notable increase of 18.91% year-on-year, amounting to 57.20 billion CNY [6]. - The asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio holding steady at 1.25% and a provision coverage ratio of 197.97%, down 2.63 percentage points from the end of the previous year [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The total revenue for Q1 2025 was 164.93 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 54.36 billion CNY, down 2.90% year-on-year [1][6]. - **Non-Interest Income**: Non-interest income reached 57.20 billion CNY, up 18.91% year-on-year, driven by significant contributions from foreign exchange gains and other business revenues [6]. - **Loan and Deposit Growth**: The total loan and advance amount reached 22.61 trillion CNY, an increase of 4.7% from the beginning of the year. Deposits also grew by 5.82% to 25.61 trillion CNY [6]. - **Net Interest Margin**: The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.29%, a decrease of 11 basis points from the end of 2024, primarily due to downward pressure on asset pricing [6]. - **Asset Quality**: The NPL balance increased to 281.2 billion CNY, with the NPL ratio stable at 1.25%. The provision coverage ratio was 198%, reflecting a slight decrease [6][10]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected to be 2.2%, 3.7%, and 4.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Net profit growth is expected to be 0.4%, 3.2%, and 3.4% for the same years [6][7]. - The target price is based on a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.75x for 2025, with a current valuation of 0.66x [6].