重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 特朗普政府于4月2日推出了新一轮关税措施，该政策方案的力度与覆盖范围显著超出了市场预期，进而 引发了全球金融市场的震荡。根据最新动态，美国对部分国家实行为期90天的"对等关税"缓冲期，并执 行10%的普遍性关税政策。尽管该措施的全面实施已被暂时推迟，但可以确定的是，此举将对国际贸易 格局与全球金融体系产生持久的影响。 失衡的贸易平衡目标与制造业回流的困境 新一轮关税政策的短期冲击已引发市场动荡，但更值得关注的是美国通过关税试图达成的政策目标。 根据美国政府官员近期的一些公开发言整理来看，此次关税行动可能主要有两个目的。 第一，以极端施压手段实现美国定义下的贸易平衡，缩减贸易逆差。 其施压手段不仅包括普遍的"对等关税 " ，还涉及诸多非关税壁垒、增加进口美国商品等内容。以越南 为例，其在美国宣布关税措施后以 " 零关税 " 条件积极回应，然而，美国仍要求越南承诺取消知识产 权窃取、出口补贴、倾销等非关税壁垒，但上述贸易壁垒并未在 " 对等关税 " 的税率确定中进行过调 查和 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 特朗普政府于4月2日推出了新一轮关税措施，该政策方案的力度与覆盖范围显著超出了市场预期，进而 引发了全球金融市场的震荡。根据最新动态，美国对部分国家实行为期90天的"对等关税"缓冲期，并执 行10%的普遍性关税政策。尽管该措施的全面实施已被暂时推迟，但可以确定的是，此举将对国际贸易 格局与全球金融体系产生持久的影响。 02 第二，通过高关税提高外国商品的成本，降低其比较优势，促使制造业回流美国。 失衡的贸易平衡目标与制造业回流的困境 新一轮关税政策的短期冲击已引发市场动荡，但更值得关注的是美国通过关税试图达成的政策目标。 根据美国政府官员近期的一些公开发言整理来看，此次关税行动可能主要有两个目的。 第一，以极端施压手段实现美国定义下的贸易平衡，缩减贸易逆差。 其施压手段不仅包括普遍的"对等关税 " ，还涉及诸多非关税壁垒、增加进口美国商品等内容。以越南 为例，其在美国宣布关税措施后以 " 零关税 " 条件积极回应，然而，美国仍要求越南承诺取消知识产 权窃取、出口补贴、倾销 ...

撰 文 / 张霖郁 设 计 / 琚 佳 中美双方生效不到48小时的关税带来的痛感尚未显露。 一方面是因为，2024年底到2025年初，美方拼命囤货，中方拼命加班供货，囤积的量至少目前仍能 维持双方的正常营收；另一方面，中美双方的对等关税不断升级，导致很多交易暂停，尚未进入结 算期，大家都在观望。 无论美国还是中国，关税导致企业成本增加利润下滑、中美双方制造业回流引发新一轮的劳动力大 调整、价格战以及后续一系列的影响还远没有拉开大幕。 "政策还没有传导到我这儿，可能5月、6月就会感受到，两个月后，我的压力会很大。"一位已从墨 西哥市场撤出、同时在泰国建厂的铝合金材料生产商告诉汽车商业评论。 "全球供应链的逻辑会发生变化，无论是采购方或供货方，接下来有可能6个月内做切换"，一位仍 在墨西哥从事零部件生产的中国供应商说。 先梳理一下这几天的关税战时间线。 4月3日（美国当地时间4月2日），特朗普（Donald J. Trump）宣布对全球贸易伙伴加征关税，其中 对华加征34%；4月4日，国家财政部宣布反制，对美进口商品同等加征34%的关税；4月8日，特朗 普要求中国政府取消34%关税，否则将对华关税提升至84%；同 ...

美国对全球加关税，最后导致大家报复美国加关税，不和美国贸易，难道美国觉得不对外贸 易对美国有好处吗？这样不是和闭关锁国差不多了？我感觉这是不现实的，关税战必然不持 久。 drwangting 别高估了美国人的抵抗力。 美国的经济70%是消费。其中，绝大多数的增量都是靠着有钱人，因为60%的穷人早就过着 pay check to pay check的日子，早榨干了。 40%的富人为什么这两年愿意花钱，因为股市大赚了。现在股市几天跌了15%，相当于上海 房子一年多的跌幅了。反正，上海人是不愿意多消费了，美国富人愿意消费吗？并且，贸易 战继续打下去，损失的也是跨国公司的利润，有可能利润进一步下跌，从而股市进一步下 跌，而股市下跌富人就更不愿意消费，最后公司的利润再下跌，这就是反身性。 同时，作为穷人，所有made in china的便宜货都没了，超市肯定要涨价吧，而且不但中国制 造的东西涨价，美国制造的也会跟着涨价。因为富人不消费，工作都有可能丢了。再加上 DOGE裁员，怒火都在懂王身上，有个火星就能点着了。 所以，对美国来说，贸易战，一定要迅速打，赚便宜，迅速结束。不然，整个经济就会出大 问题，而明年就是中期选举 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lixun Precision has no current plans to establish a factory in the United States, despite media reports suggesting otherwise. The company emphasizes that any information should be based on official disclosures and reserves the right to pursue legal action against false reports [1]. Group 1: Company Statements - During a recent investor call, Lixun's chairman Wang Laichun discussed the challenges of manufacturing returning to the U.S., highlighting that it involves not just labor and cost considerations but also the complexity of long supply chains [1]. - Wang noted that while some automotive and communication clients are interested in having Lixun provide services for highly automated products in the U.S., the company will only proceed if commercial guarantees are met [1]. - Wang acknowledged that the previously underestimated impact of tariffs on the company, stating that only a small portion of products manufactured domestically are exported to the U.S., which has a slight effect on the company [2]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - The U.S. has recently increased tariffs on Chinese imports, with the overall tariff rate reaching 125% for certain products, significantly impacting the cost structure for companies like Lixun that export to the U.S. [2][5]. - For example, the cost of the iPhone 16 Pro 256GB version is projected to rise from $580 to $1,305 due to the increased tariffs, surpassing the current retail price [5]. - Wang clarified that under conventional trade rules, hardware manufacturers do not bear the costs of tariffs, logistics, or warehousing, as these costs are typically passed on to importers [6]. Group 3: Production and Investment Strategy - Lixun Precision operates production facilities and R&D centers not only in China but also in Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the U.S., and Mexico, indicating a diversified manufacturing strategy [6]. - The company has considered increasing investments in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, which has a mature industrial infrastructure, although it faces high tariffs as well [6]. - Wang emphasized that unless tariffs on Vietnamese products are significantly higher than those from other countries, it is unlikely that production will shift from Vietnam, as this would increase costs for brands [6].

4月7日，美股开盘便遭遇重挫。道指开盘即跌 2.85%，纳指跌幅更是高达 3.89%，标普 500 指数也下跌 3.19%。大型科技股无一幸免，集体陷入普跌困境， 英伟达跌逾 7%，特斯拉、苹果跌逾 6%，亚马逊、AMD 跌逾 5% 。 不过，好消息随之而来。美联储官网发布消息称，将于当地时间上午11:30举行理事会闭门会议议程主要聚焦于审查并确定美联储银行所收取的提前 和贴现利率。值得注意的是，此次会议正值特朗普关税政策引发美股大幅调整的敏感时期。 此后，重磅利好再度传来，美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特称，特朗普正在考虑对部分国家暂停90天的关税。 但好景不长，CNBC报道称，美国白宫无人知晓90天关税暂停的消息。 消息面此起彼伏，美股也上演ICU到KTV的反复横跳，好像一个精神失常的病人。美股行情先是突然逆转，直线拉升，道琼斯指数从36611点的低位 绝地反转，盘中一度暴涨超2500点。不过，随后又是风云突变，道指从39207的高点暴跌1000点翻绿，跌超1%。 而国内，早些时候也传来利好消息。中央汇金公司发布公告称，公司坚定看好中国资本市场发展前景，充分认可当前 A 股配置价值，已再次增持了 交易型开放式 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the escalation of the US-China trade conflict has a limited direct impact on major chemical product exports, suggesting a resilient domestic demand in China [3] - The report emphasizes that China's manufacturing sector is expected to continue increasing its global market share, particularly in the chemical industry, despite external pressures [3] - Short-term export demand may face challenges, but there are positive prospects for domestic demand-related stocks in various segments of the chemical industry [4] - The report anticipates a new cycle for the chemical industry driven by a rebound in oil prices, supported by sustained domestic demand and increased exports to non-US countries [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Short-term Opportunities - Amino acids are expected to benefit from rising soybean meal prices due to US tariffs, with key beneficiaries including Xinhesheng, Meihua Biological, and others [4] - Refrigerants are less affected by tariffs, and price increases are expected to continue, benefiting companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and others [4] - High-performance new materials may see opportunities for domestic substitution due to investigations into DuPont China Group, with beneficiaries including Haohua Technology and others [4] - Domestic demand-related companies in the civil explosives sector are expected to benefit, including Yahua Group and others [4] - Stable demand in the pesticide and fertilizer sectors is highlighted, with beneficiaries including Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., and others [4] Mid to Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that a rebound in oil prices will support the cost side of chemical products, leading to a new cycle characterized by volume and price increases for Chinese chemical companies [5] - Key beneficiaries in the leading companies segment include Hualu Hengsheng, Wanhua Chemical, and others [5] - In the large refining sector, beneficiaries include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and others [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the machinery and equipment investment opportunities, particularly focusing on the manufacturing sectors in both the U.S. and China [2][4][12]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Tariff Policy Changes**: - The Trump administration has implemented a 10% baseline tariff on all countries, effective April 5, 2025, with higher reciprocal tariffs for countries with significant trade deficits, effective April 9, 2025 [2][4]. - This policy is expected to have a substantial impact not only on China but also on various global regions, including the EU, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea [2]. 2. **U.S. Manufacturing Challenges**: - From 2010 to 2024, the share of manufacturing value added to GDP in the U.S. has been on a continuous decline, indicating challenges in global division of labor and domestic development stages [4][11]. - The U.S. PMI data has shown persistent contraction, with a drop to 49 in March 2025, reflecting increased pressure on manufacturing due to rising prices and declining orders [6][11]. 3. **Chinese Export Chain Resilience**: - Chinese export chain companies have adapted to tariff challenges through two rounds of capacity relocation overseas, enhancing their global competitiveness [5][9]. - The valuation levels of these companies are currently worth attention, as they have established a strong international presence [3][5]. 4. **Globalization of the Tool Industry**: - The tool industry has undergone significant globalization since 2018, with many companies establishing factories in regions like Vietnam [7]. - The impact of reciprocal tariffs on U.S. and Chinese companies is relatively similar due to the high dependency of U.S. companies on supply chains in Mexico, China, and Southeast Asia [7]. 5. **Current Demand in the Tool Industry**: - The tool industry is experiencing low demand, primarily influenced by the U.S. real estate cycle and low housing transaction volumes due to high interest rates [8][9]. 6. **Forklift Industry Growth**: - The forklift industry has seen rapid international expansion since 2021, particularly in lithium battery technology, which offers performance advantages over traditional models [10]. - The domestic forklift market is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 20%-30% in overseas markets in the coming years [10]. 7. **High-End Equipment Manufacturing**: - The high-end equipment manufacturing sector faces challenges due to the need for equipment upgrades, while the U.S. manufacturing sector continues to struggle with declining capacity and inflationary pressures [11]. - Chinese export-oriented manufacturing firms are expected to leverage their cost management and quality advantages to enhance their international competitiveness [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall outlook for both U.S. and Chinese manufacturing indicates that while both face challenges, Chinese export-oriented firms are likely to emerge stronger post-tariff adjustments, presenting clear investment opportunities [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Fuyao Glass [1] Core Views - Fuyao Glass is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, driven by increasing domestic demand and export sales, rising average selling prices (ASP), and significant profit potential in the U.S. market [4][5][6] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in both the U.S. and European markets, with a focus on expanding production capacity and enhancing market share [5][6][41] Summary by Sections Historical Performance - Fuyao Glass has shown a performance trend with a 11% decline compared to the benchmark index [2] Revenue and Profit Outlook - Revenue is projected to reach 377.47 billion RMB in 2024, 437.59 billion RMB in 2025, and 500.65 billion RMB in 2026, with net profits expected to be 73.86 billion RMB, 86.29 billion RMB, and 99.56 billion RMB respectively [9][4] - The company’s EPS is forecasted to grow from 2.83 RMB in 2024 to 3.81 RMB in 2026 [9] U.S. Market Opportunities - The U.S. automotive market is projected to have a production of 10.66 million vehicles in 2023, with 5.47 million vehicles relying on imports, creating a significant opportunity for Fuyao Glass [5][13] - Fuyao Glass aims to increase its market share in the U.S. to 40% by 2024, benefiting from the return of manufacturing and tariff policies under the Trump administration [5][20] European Market Dynamics - The European automotive market has faced challenges, but Fuyao Glass is positioned to increase its market share, especially if major competitors like Saint-Gobain exit the market [6][33][41] - The report highlights that Fuyao Glass's market share in Europe has already surpassed 30%, driven by supply chain disruptions and increased demand from European automakers [41][43] Production Capacity and Cost Management - Fuyao Glass has invested significantly in expanding its production capacity, with plans to increase output to 48.8 million units by 2026 [7][9] - The company is expected to benefit from declining raw material costs, particularly in soda ash and natural gas, which will enhance profit margins [6][9]

证券研究报告|投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 投资策略研究 中美对弈升级,聚焦贸易和科技 事件:年初至今特朗普宣布对中国商品征收两轮 10%的关税,中国迅速从关 税、出口管制、法律诉讼等方面进行反击。中美对弈升级,或从贸易摩擦扩 散至科技竞争。 贸易摩擦:风险犹在但可控。特朗普开启贸易摩擦的目的,提升美国内部供 应链安全,预防未来地缘突变导致的极端尾部风险。第二任期,特朗普政府 "制造业回流"的战略地位进一步提升,执行层面或加码,态度坚决,通过 维持各进口国的高关税或吸纳千亿级别的对美投资,构建美国制造业体系。 美对华关税或存在进一步提升空间,但考虑到对内减税和对外关税的关联度, 作者 分析师 汪毅 执业证书编号:S1070512120003 邮箱:yiw@cgws.com 分析师 简宇涵 执业证书编号:S1070524080001 邮箱:jianyuhan@cgws.com 相关研究 1、《政策支持+行业突破 -- 周度策略行业配置观点》 空间有限。 贸易摩擦:综合分析下,在高关税下,消费电子、轻工制造(家具、玩具) 受影响程度较大,而工程机械、白色家电受影响程度相对较小。如何分析 ...