Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market has experienced significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policy, with prices showing a "roller coaster" trend during the Spring Festival holiday [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 24, domestic markets opened strongly after the holiday, with gold futures rising by 3.52% to 1150.50 yuan per gram, and silver futures increasing by nearly 13% to 22327 yuan per kilogram [1] - Platinum and palladium also saw gains, with platinum futures up 5.54% to 551.85 yuan per gram and palladium futures up 4.57% to 438.45 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was reported at 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.5% and the revised Q3 figure of 4.4% [2] - U.S. inflation remains persistent, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% in Q4 2025, up from 2.8% previously, while the core CPI for January fell to 2.5%, the lowest in nearly five years [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - U.S. President Trump announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, which has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [3] Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategy - Market volatility is expected to be a key characteristic of the precious metals market in 2026, with analysts suggesting that investors should manage their positions carefully [4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the macro structural factors supporting gold remain intact, including ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [4] Group 5: Investment Sentiment - A global fund manager survey by Bank of America indicated that "long gold" has become the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, reflecting high institutional interest in gold assets [5]

眼瞅着再过一个月，特朗普的专机就要往北京飞了，这本来是他重新坐上总统宝座后，最风光、也最重 要的一次出访，并且按道理，这种级别的见面，特朗普手里得有点强有力的筹码，才有底气和中方谈 判，可就在这个节骨眼上，他的后院起火了。 当地时间2月20日，共和党占主导权的美国最高法院，九位大法官里有六位罕见地达成了一致，直接裁 定特朗普之前搞的关税政策违法、越权，把他这张最管用的王牌给彻底废了。 之前特朗普想给谁加税就给谁加，尤其是针对咱们中国，最高的时候关税税率快加到200%，其中一大 半都是靠"对等贸易""芬太尼管控"这些名头硬加上去的，说白了就是想靠关税拿捏其他国家，占尽便 宜。 最高法院的大法官们说得很明白，特朗普用的那部《国际紧急经济权力法》，本来是用来应对海外政 变、恐怖主义这些紧急情况，冻结外国资产、限制交易的，通篇都没提"关税"俩字，他把这部法律当成 加征全球关税的"万能钥匙"，就是越权，就是违法。 更有意思的是，这次投赞成票的六位大法官里，还有两位是特朗普自己提名的，等于说他自己提拔的 人，也没站在他这边，可见这次裁决有多彻底。 裁决一出来，特朗普团队彻底慌了，赶紧翻箱倒柜找补救办法，最后翻出了1974 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices, driven by economic data and geopolitical events, indicate a potential long-term bullish trend for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data - The U.S. Q4 GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value is 1.4%, below expectations of 2.8% and the previous value of 4.4%, impacted by a 43-day government shutdown [2][3]. - Core PCE for December 2025 rose to 3% year-on-year, higher than expectations and previous values, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell from 52.4 to 51.2, and the services PMI decreased from 52.7 to 52.3, both below expectations, suggesting a marginal slowdown in economic activity [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Supreme Court overturned the IEEPA tariffs, reducing the effective tax rate from 16% to 9%, but former President Trump announced retaliatory measures, raising tariffs back to 15% [3]. - The FOMC meeting minutes revealed a divergence among members regarding interest rate guidance, with some suggesting the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains above 2% [3]. - The Russian central bank sold 300,000 ounces of gold in January to cover budget deficits, marking the first reduction since October, although the total value of gold reserves increased by 23% to $402.7 billion due to rising gold prices [3]. Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices have rebounded to the $5200 level after a period of decline, with expectations of increased volatility due to upcoming options expirations and external factors like a strengthening dollar [4]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong, supported by monetary expansion, fiscal deficit monetization, and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical tensions [4]. - The combination of a potential Fed rate cut cycle, heightened global uncertainties, and a trend towards de-dollarization is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in spot gold prices, which reached $5200 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and the subsequent impact on precious metals and oil prices [1] - The article notes that the ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have not reached a resolution, leading to a deterioration in the situation and a continuous increase in the price of London gold [1] - The long-term trend for gold remains strong, supported by factors such as monetary expansion, fiscal deficit monetization, and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the potential for continued upward momentum in precious metals, industrial metals, and crude oil, driven by the pricing logic in the commodity market [1] - It suggests that the trend of "de-dollarization" globally may position gold as a new pricing anchor, enhancing its appeal as a reserve asset [1] - The combination of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, increased overseas uncertainties, and the global trend of de-dollarization continues to support gold prices [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report period: February 24 - 27, 2026 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be near the end of the trend [7] - Trend judgment logic: Gold prices are in high - level volatility. Geopolitical risks (Middle East situation) and central bank gold purchases form a solid bottom. On February 11, the gold price was pushed up to $5077. Then, lower - than - expected US CPI data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation but also led to deeper market concerns about stagflation. Coupled with technical profit - taking, the gold price deeply corrected to $4861 on the 17th. On the 20th, the US Supreme Court's ruling caused the US dollar index to fall, and with continuous inflows into ETFs, the gold price recovered to $5053. In the short term, the game between high real interest rates and interest - rate cut expectations causes disturbances, while the re - evaluation of the US dollar's credit and global "de - dollarization" provide core support in the medium and long term [7] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The Shanghai Gold contract 2604 fluctuated sharply at a short - term high. The upper pressure was 1150 - 1200 yuan/gram, and the lower support was 1000 - 1050 yuan/gram. With the Spring Festival approaching, it was recommended to wait and see [10] - This week's strategy: The Shanghai Gold contract 2604 will be in high - level oscillation. The upper pressure is 1200 - 1220 yuan/gram, and the lower support is 1080 - 1100 yuan/gram. It is recommended to go long on dips [11] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23][25][27] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel and may be near the end of the trend [31] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the silver price showed a "first - down - then - up" trend. The adjustment was mainly due to macro - policy suppression and capital withdrawal. Strong US employment data strengthened the hawkish expectation, and the rising US dollar index directly suppressed the financial attribute. At the same time, the previous profit - taking and the CME's increase in margin triggered a stampede effect. However, industrial demand and inventory provided solid support. The surge in photovoltaic module exports drove silver demand, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 3.6% to a new low, limiting the downward price space. Subsequently, geopolitical risks fluctuated, boosting the price to stabilize and rebound. In the future, it awaits PCE data guidance. In the medium and long term, the global supply - demand gap for the sixth consecutive year and the weakening of the US dollar's credit will support the price center to move up, and the volatility elasticity is expected to be higher than that of gold [33] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [34] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2604 fluctuated significantly at a high level. The upper pressure was 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support was 17,000 - 19,000 yuan/kg. With the Spring Festival approaching, it was recommended to wait and see [37] - This week's strategy: The silver contract 2604 will be in high - level oscillation. The upper pressure is 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support is 17,000 - 19,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to go long on dips [38] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][48][50]

2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 26 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 112.840 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.10%报 108.505 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.09%报 105.975 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.03%报 102.436 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 13 日以固定利率 ...

格隆汇2月24日｜荷兰国际集团(ING)最新研究报告指出，自2024年以来，美元的避险属性有所减弱，但 其全球主导地位尚未出现系统性动摇。报告分析称，通过计算美元指数与美股及10年期美国国债在过去 三个月的相关系数可见，美元相较2024年已部分丧失传统避险功能。然而，该行强调，并未观察到全球 对美元的需求出现大范围或结构性恶化。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the market needs to digest Trump's new tariff policy and the escalating US - Iran tensions. Precious metal prices are expected to remain strong. In the long - run, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization process, the allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents is likely to continue, and the price of precious metals has upward potential. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - As of February 23, 2026, London spot gold was at $5148.11/ounce, up 3.8% from February 13, 2026; London spot silver was at $86.45/ounce, up 12.1% [5]. - COMEX gold was at $5169.80/ounce, up 3.8% from February 13; COMEX silver was at $86.33/ounce, up 12.2% [5]. - The COMEX gold - silver ratio on February 23, 2026, was 59.89, down 7.5% from February 13 [5]. 3.2 Position Data - As of February 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was at 1078.75 tons, unchanged from February 19; the silver ETF - SLV was at 15517.60503 tons, down 0.19% [5]. - COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 213432 contracts, up 0.29% from February 19; non - commercial short positions were 53517 contracts, up 1.37% [5]. - COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 36626 contracts, down 0.09% from February 19; non - commercial short positions were 12623 contracts, down 7.89% [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - As of February 20, 2026, COMEX gold inventory was 33920235 troy ounces, down 0.51% from February 19; COMEX silver inventory was 366257039 troy ounces, down 0.32% [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Stock Market - As of February 20, 2026, the US dollar index was 97.74, down 0.10% from February 19; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.48%, up 0.29%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.08%, unchanged [5]. - The VIX was 19.09, down 5.64% from February 19; the S&P 500 was 6909.51, up 0.69%; NYMEX crude oil was $66.31, down 0.54% [5]. 3.5 Market Review and Influencing Factors - As of 16:00 on February 23, London spot gold was at $5148.108/ounce, up about 3.77% during the Spring Festival holiday; London spot silver was at $86.452/ounce, up about 12.08% [5][6]. - During the Spring Festival, overseas precious metals first declined then rose. Initially, factors such as the US - Iran negotiations reducing risk - aversion demand, the Fed's January meeting minutes showing increased divergence, and the rebound of the US dollar index weakened precious metal prices. Later, poor US economic data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, the US Supreme Court ruling the IEEPA BCY public tax illegal, Trump's new tariff policy, the US - Iran negotiation deadlock, and the increasing possibility of US military action against Iran boosted risk - aversion demand and strengthened precious metal prices [6]

Group 1 - The Russian ruble has appreciated significantly against the US dollar since 2025, despite low oil prices and weak economic growth, due to improved current and capital account balances, monetary tightening, and foreign exchange market interventions [1][2][3] - The correlation between the ruble and oil prices has weakened, with the ruble appreciating over 20% while Urals oil prices fell by 16%, indicating a breakdown of the previous "oil currency" logic [2][3] - The Russian government has shifted its economic strategy towards import substitution and developing non-oil industries, which has contributed to the ruble's strength [3] Group 2 - The trade surplus has been maintained through increased non-oil exports, which grew by 6% in the first three quarters of 2025, compensating for a 21% decline in oil and gas export revenues [4] - The "de-dollarization" of international trade has been significant, with 57% of exports and 53% of imports settled in rubles by Q3 2025, reducing reliance on US dollars and euros [4] - Russia's external debt has decreased from 3.9% of GDP in 2020 to 2.6% in 2024, leading to lower demand for foreign currency for debt repayment [5] Group 3 - The Central Bank of Russia has maintained high interest rates, with the benchmark rate reaching 21% in October 2024, which has attracted domestic investments in ruble-denominated debt [6] - The government has increased foreign exchange sales to support the ruble, with daily sales rising from 4.7 billion rubles in January 2025 to 14.8 billion rubles by December [6] - Tax adjustments have also impacted the economy, with a significant increase in the fiscal deficit leading to higher taxes on imports, particularly affecting the automotive sector [7] Group 4 - The appreciation of the ruble has negatively impacted federal revenue, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 1 trillion to 1.3 trillion rubles for each unit of ruble appreciation against the dollar [8] - Export-oriented companies are facing increased costs and reduced profit margins due to the ruble's strength, leading to cutbacks in investment plans [9] - Domestic companies are struggling against the influx of cheaper imported goods, with significant increases in imports of various consumer products, impacting local market competitiveness [9] Group 5 - The strong ruble is expected to maintain its position in the short term, but it poses risks for investments in Russia, particularly under sanctions [10] - Neighboring countries like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are experiencing inflationary pressures due to the strong ruble, prompting them to raise interest rates [10] - Investors in emerging markets should be cautious of similar currency fluctuations caused by government interventions [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in gold-related assets, with the China Gold ETF (518850) rising by 3.95% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increasing by 5.85% as of 10:50 AM on February 24 [1] - The overseas precious metals market experienced an overall upward trend during the Spring Festival, with New York gold prices rising from around $5000 to above $5200, driven by geopolitical tensions and tariff policy disruptions [1] - Dongwu Securities believes that the narrative of "de-dollarization" remains difficult to disprove in the medium to long term, indicating that gold is still in an upward range [1] Group 2 - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit have been raised due to the failure of expected tariff revenues, alongside a significant decline in fourth-quarter GDP growth, which was notably below market expectations [1] - The rising expectations of stagflation have benefited precious metals, which are seen as inflation hedges [1] - The management and custody fees for the China Gold ETF (518850) and Gold Stock ETF (159562) are combined at a low rate of 0.2%, making it more cost-effective for investors to participate in the gold market [1]