"国内首只千亿级黄金ETF诞生，资金持续流入主要源于多重逻辑支撑。"排排网财富公募产品运营曾 方芳分析指出，一是地缘局势与通胀不确定性强化黄金避险属性；二是美联储降息周期、美元信用弱化及 全球央行购金潮构成长期利好；三是黄金与股债低相关性可改善投资组合夏普比；四是黄金ETF具备低成 本、高透明、易交易等优势，降低了投资门槛；五是在去美元化趋势下，其作为价值储存工具的战略意义 日益凸显，受到机构与个人资金的共同认可。 对于普通投资者而言，当前是否适合配置黄金ETF成为关注焦点。对此，曾方芳认为，当前可将黄金 ETF作为中长期配置的选项，但需注意理性布局。她建议，将黄金作为资产组合中的风险对冲工具，低仓 位配置。在操作上，应采取逢低逐步配置的策略，着眼于长期持有，而非短期交易。在选择具体产品时， 除了产品规模，还应重点关注其跟踪误差、综合费率及流动性等关键指标。 不过，曾方芳也提醒关注多重风险：黄金价格短期可能出现的高位波动与回调风险、宏观政策或地缘 局势变化引发的行情转折风险，以及部分ETF因交易价格偏离净值而可能产生的溢价回落风险。 据Wind数据，全市场共计13只黄金主题ETF，合计基金最新规模超2500亿 ...

数据显示，截至本周三，华安黄金ETF的最新流通规模达1007.62亿元，成为国内首只规模突破千亿的 黄金ETF，同样也稳居亚洲最大规模黄金ETF之位。展望2026年，多家公募基金认为，在美联储降息周 期持续、海外不确定性加剧、全球去美元化趋势下，金价上涨的逻辑依然存在。 国泰基金认为，从中 长期来看，在货币超发及财政赤字货币化背景下，美元信用体系受到挑战；加上全球地缘动荡频发推动 资产储备多元化，黄金作为安全资产的需求持续提升，全球"去美元化"的趋势使得黄金有望成为新一轮 定价锚，贵金属有望具备上行动能。 ...

最近，美国又出新招，特朗普推动了针对中国、印度、巴西的石油制裁法案，意图让这三巨头别再买俄罗斯的原油。 你以为世界的油价变动和家里做饭没啥关系？ 其实，全球能源格局的每一次风吹草动，都可能影响到你我的钱包。 这不是简单的"国际新闻"，而是在全球经济棋盘上搅动风云，影响着无数家庭的柴米油盐。 根据国际能源署统计，全球石油贸易中有近一半和中国、印度、巴西有关。 美国这次的制裁，表面上是要让俄罗斯"断粮"，逼俄乌冲突早日结束。 其实，背后算盘打得精，试图拉中印巴三国站队，一边稳住自己的能源话语权，一边在地缘博弈中分羹。 哈佛大学的学者们也说了，全球能源链比想象中复杂，制裁的"连锁反应"很可能让美国陷入两难，毕竟不是谁说了算就能让油价掉头。 有意思的是，面对美国的"高压"，中国一点也不怵。 毕竟，作为全球最大原油买家之一，中国早已经在推进人民币结算，减少对美元的依赖。 这次，中国率先拒绝了美国的制裁要求，显示了强烈的独立性。 印度也没让步，能源安全是十几亿人口的大事，谁也不愿意因为美国的政策让国内工厂停摆。 巴西则注重自身经济发展，能源进口直接影响着国内就业和社会稳定，自然也不愿轻易跟风。 顺带说说土耳其的"神操作" ...

在国际金价站上4600美元/盎司之际，国内首只千亿黄金ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）诞生。Wind数 据显示，截至本周三，华安黄金ETF的最新流通规模达1007.62亿元，成为国内首只规模突破千亿的黄 金ETF，同样也稳居亚洲最大规模黄金ETF之位。展望后市，基金公司对黄金、白银等贵金属的走势仍 相对乐观，认为在美联储降息周期持续、海外不确定性加剧、全球去美元化趋势下，金价上涨逻辑依然 存在，但短期波动风险需保持警惕。（人民财讯） MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could significantly impact the U.S. economy and its international standing, with former President Trump expressing extreme concern about the implications of such a decision [1][2][16]. Group 1: Economic Implications - If the Supreme Court rules that the tariffs imposed on numerous countries are unconstitutional, the U.S. may face demands for refunds amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars [1]. - Companies have adjusted their supply chains and manufacturing locations in response to tariffs, and a ruling against these tariffs could lead to the U.S. being liable for indirect losses incurred by these businesses [1][16]. - The U.S. fiscal situation could worsen significantly if multiple countries demand refunds simultaneously, potentially leading to a financial crisis [1][16]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's rhetoric aims to pressure the Supreme Court by suggesting that the nation could face dire consequences, reflecting a rare instance of a former president openly threatening judicial independence [2][4]. - The internal divisions within the Supreme Court, between liberal and conservative justices, could lead to unpredictable outcomes regarding the ruling on tariffs [4][24]. Group 3: International Relations - The U.S. is experiencing a breakdown of its traditional alliances, with actions perceived as unilateralism causing discontent among allies [6][8]. - The potential for China to play a stabilizing role in U.S. economic recovery is being discussed, as both nations are economically intertwined, with significant trade dependencies [8][19][21]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the need for crisis management mechanisms between the U.S. and China are highlighted as essential to avoid further escalation [30][31]. Group 4: Systemic Challenges - The U.S. governance structure, designed for checks and balances, may hinder swift decision-making in times of crisis, leading to potential paralysis in addressing urgent economic issues [9][34][36]. - The current political climate, characterized by extreme polarization, complicates the ability of the U.S. to respond effectively to international challenges [10][42]. - The systemic risks facing the U.S. economy are compounded by structural issues, including a rising national debt and declining trust among allies [16][42].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of China's first gold ETF with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan coincides with international gold prices surpassing $4600 per ounce, indicating strong investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Gold ETF Market Development - The Huashan Gold ETF has reached a circulation scale of 100.76 billion yuan, making it the largest gold ETF in Asia [1][2]. - The total market scale of 14 gold ETFs in China has reached 263.44 billion yuan, with significant inflows into other ETFs such as Bosera Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF [2]. - The development of gold ETFs in China began in 2009, with the first product, Huashan Gold ETF, launched in July 2013 [2]. Group 2: Adjustments in ETF Operations - Several fund companies are adjusting their physical subscription and redemption mechanisms to enhance liquidity and risk management due to the surge in gold prices [3][4]. - E Fund announced a temporary suspension of subscriptions for its gold ETF starting January 16, with a reduction in the minimum subscription unit from 300,000 to 100,000 shares [3][4]. - The adjustment to unify the physical gold contract for subscriptions to Au99.99 is aimed at improving liquidity and ensuring fair pricing for all investors [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook on Gold Prices - Multiple public funds remain optimistic about the continued rise in gold prices, citing factors such as the ongoing Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and increasing global uncertainties [5][6]. - The trend of de-dollarization and geopolitical tensions are expected to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with predictions of gold becoming a new pricing anchor [6]. - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on medium-term allocations rather than short-term speculation due to increased volatility in the gold market [6].

最近，美国金融圈上演了一出堪比宫廷剧的大戏，而这场戏的结局，可能关系到我们每个人的钱包。 2026年刚开年，美国总统特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔 之间的战争，从"口水仗"直接升级到了"法律战"。 美国司法部突然对鲍威尔发起刑事调查，理由是关于总部装修预算的问题。 明眼人都看出来，这只是个 借口，真正的原因是鲍威尔没按特朗普的意思大幅降息。 特朗普甚至公开骂鲍威尔是"混蛋"，声称他"很快就要走人"。 他想在鲍威尔主席任期今年5月结束前，就逼他走人，好换上自己人。 但这下可捅了马蜂窝。 美联储自成立以来，最大的金字招牌就是"独立性"——不听总统指挥，只根据经济数据做决策。 特朗普这么一搞，相当于亲手砸这块招牌。 于是，压力从口头批评升级为了实质性的行政手段。 司法部的调查被广泛解读为特朗普政府向鲍威尔施加政治压力、迫使其就范甚至提前离职的"武器"。 特朗普在1月初的一次集会上更是火力全开，直接称鲍威尔"要么无能，要么腐败"，并断言"那个混蛋很快就要走人了"。 这种一位在任总统对本国央行行长 使用如此激烈且具有人身攻击性的言辞，在美国现代史上极为罕见。 面对来自白宫的强大压力，鲍威尔没有选择沉默。 在司法部宣布调查后不 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to operate steadily in 2026, with major asset classes showing a "stocks outperform bonds, commodities in a long bull market" trend, and China aiming for around 5% growth amid its economic transformation [1][2] - Major economies are experiencing cyclical divergence, with the US in a late-stage downturn, the EU and Japan in late-stage recovery, and the UK entering a new downturn [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is projected to continue, with expected cuts of 50 to 75 basis points in 2026, influenced by pressures on the Fed's independence from the Trump administration [1][2] China Economic Analysis - China's economy faces a "macro-micro temperature difference," primarily due to low prices and structural factors such as weak financial cycles and a shift in consumer demand from goods to services [2][3] - Inflation is expected to recover moderately in 2026, but the difficulty of turning the Producer Price Index (PPI) positive remains significant [2][3] - Investment is anticipated to marginally recover, with manufacturing investment stabilizing and infrastructure investment supported by policy financial tools, while real estate investment is expected to see a narrowing decline [2][3] Currency and Exchange Rate - The US dollar is entering a long-term downtrend, influenced by overvaluation relative to purchasing power parity, government efforts to promote a weaker dollar, and high debt interest rates [2][3] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials with the US and trade surpluses with the EU and ASEAN [2][3] Asset Allocation Strategy - The stock market is expected to experience a slow bull market, benefiting from improved global liquidity due to a weak dollar, the central government's commitment to stabilizing capital markets, and breakthroughs in technology and military sectors [3][8] - The bond market's allocation value is declining, with monetary policy not being extremely loose and the central bank cautious about capital turnover [3][8] - Commodities are in a long-term upward cycle, driven by a weak dollar, supply-demand tensions from global supply chain restructuring, and policies promoting a shift from virtual to real assets [3][8]

Group 1 - International gold and silver prices have reached historic highs, with gold at $4635 per ounce and silver surpassing $90, leading to significant discussions and investment anxiety in the domestic market [1][2] - The price of gold jewelry in the domestic market has risen to 1438 RMB per gram, reflecting a more than 65% increase since early 2025, with the cost of wedding gold jewelry rising from 40,000 RMB to over 80,000 RMB [2] - Silver futures have seen a 25% increase since the beginning of the year, with a single-day surge of 5.85%, marking a significant demand for silver driven by industrial needs and investment shifts [2][4] Group 2 - The surge in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Central banks globally have increased their gold reserves for five consecutive years, with a net purchase of 950 tons in 2025, indicating a shift in asset preference towards gold over U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - Silver's industrial demand is highlighted by its critical role in the photovoltaic industry, accounting for 55% of global silver demand, alongside significant needs from the electric vehicle sector and AI chip packaging [4] Group 3 - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is evident, with a 9.4% decline in the dollar index in 2025 and a drop in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves to 56.92%, the lowest since 1995 [5] - The volatility in the silver market is exacerbated by quantitative trading, where approximately $12 million can purchase all circulating silver on COMEX, indicating a highly speculative environment [5] Group 4 - Consumer behavior is shifting due to rising prices, with some wedding groups adjusting their purchasing plans, opting for rentals or alternative metals like silver and platinum [6] - Early investors in gold and silver have seen substantial profits, with some reporting gains of over 600,000 RMB from gold investments made at lower prices [6] Group 5 - The silver market is facing supply shortages, with London silver inventories at a ten-year low and a significant gap in demand expected to persist [4] - The rising costs of silver are impacting industries, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where silver constitutes 15% of component costs, leading some manufacturers to pause procurement [8] Group 6 - Investment strategies suggest that consumers should avoid high premiums on branded gold and consider alternatives like bank gold bars with lower premiums [10] - For investors, it is recommended to limit gold and silver investments to a small percentage of liquid assets and to consider investing in gold ETFs rather than engaging in leveraged trading [11]

Macro News - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to a defensive stance among dollar bulls, while a mild decline in CPI data has increased expectations for future interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, President Trump's threats of military action due to unrest in Iran, the White House's insistence on purchasing Greenland, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support precious metals [1] - The Philadelphia Fed President Harker reiterated that if inflation continues to decline as expected and the labor market stabilizes, the Federal Reserve may further lower interest rates later this year [1] - The PPI and core PPI in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year in November, while market expectations were at 2.7%, with rising energy costs being the main driver of PPI increases [1] - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in November, the fastest growth since July, driven by a rebound in auto sales and strong holiday shopping [1] Institutional Views - In the short term, challenges to monetary policy independence and escalating geopolitical tensions have heightened safe-haven demand and trading sentiment for precious metals, but potential profit-taking by investors at high levels may lead to price corrections [1] - In the medium term, weak U.S. manufacturing, the overarching trend of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to pressure the dollar, supporting an increase in precious metals [1]