Core Viewpoint - China's export resilience in June exceeded expectations, reflecting a slight improvement in export growth in Q2 compared to Q1, driven by the "expedited shipping" effect ahead of the expiration of the "reciprocal tariff" exemption and a recovery in the global manufacturing cycle [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In June, China's exports were supported by short-term "rush export" demand as the deadline for the "reciprocal tariff" exemption approached on July 9 [1] - The overall export growth rate in Q2 showed a slight strengthening, indicating improved competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [1] Group 2: Import Trends - In June, the year-on-year growth rate of imports in dollar terms increased by 4.5 percentage points from May to 1.1%, primarily driven by improvements in upstream imports and the "de-escalation" of tariffs between the US and China [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the "rush export" phenomenon may partially deplete demand, and the upward adjustment of US tariffs could impact imports, leading to a slight decrease in the overall year-on-year export growth rate in Q3 [1] - However, the recent increase in US tariffs on the EU and Mexico may enhance the relative competitiveness of Chinese exports [1]

Group 1 - The EU has chosen to handle the new round of US tariffs with restraint, extending the suspension period for countermeasures until early August, indicating a preference for negotiation over confrontation [1][2] - The US plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on imports from various countries, including Mexico and the EU, starting August 1, which has raised concerns among European leaders about inflation and uncertainty [2][3] - Experts suggest that the EU's hesitation in negotiations stems from its limited leverage due to the intertwined economic and defense interests with the US, making it unlikely for the EU to gain significant benefits from any trade agreement [1][8] Group 2 - The EU is facing pressure from the US to reduce the trade deficit, particularly in sectors like aerospace and automotive, but the EU's ability to make concessions is constrained by strong domestic industries [4][5] - The EU's trade surplus with the US is substantial, estimated at over €190 billion in 2024, but the EU's reliance on the US market complicates its negotiating position [8][9] - The ongoing trade negotiations are influenced by broader geopolitical considerations, with the EU's defense dependency on the US limiting its willingness to adopt a confrontational stance [9][10] Group 3 - The potential for a trade agreement between the US and EU remains, but the likelihood of reaching a deal before the August 1 deadline is uncertain, and any agreement may not significantly enhance trade relations [10][11] - Experts predict that the EU may have to accept higher baseline tariffs as part of any agreement, with estimates suggesting a range of 15% to 20% for the EU [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the postponement of reciprocal tariffs by Trump as a strategic move, highlighting the limited trade agreements with certain economies and the inability to bear the costs of comprehensive tariff increases [1][3]. Tariff Adjustments - The new tariff standards announced by Trump show significant increases for certain countries, with Mexico and Canada facing over 30% increases, Brazil's tariffs rising from 10% to 50%, and the EU's tariffs increasing from 20% to 30% [1][3]. - The average U.S. import tariff has risen by 5.6 percentage points to 28.9% since the initial version in April, with the most significant increases for Brazil, Canada, and Mexico [3][4]. Impact on Exports - The overall increase in U.S. import tariffs may shrink the total import "pie," potentially affecting China's export share, while higher tariffs from other countries could allow China to regain market share [4][10]. - Household appliances, light manufacturing, and electrical equipment are expected to benefit the most from the tariff changes, with a potential final tariff increase of only 10% for China [7][9]. Export Performance - China's export growth rate in June was recorded at 5.8%, a 1 percentage point increase from May, indicating strong export resilience [10][11]. - The increase in exports is attributed to the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, leading to a significant rebound in exports to the U.S. [10][11]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus expanded to $114.77 billion in June, continuing to grow, with future attention on the potential impacts of the second round of reciprocal tariffs [24].

国银河证券|CGS 延长关税豁免期后, 东盟将会如何应对? 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 延长关税豁免期后,东盟将会如何应对? 核心观点 尽管短期内市场反应较为温和,但长期来看,我们认为美国持续加征关税的立 场强硬,区域关税的整体上浮会压缩出口及转口贸易的利润空间,豁免期结束 后,东南亚"关税洼地"的优势地位或面临较大挑战,对美出口及转口规模预 计均将有所下降。高度外向型的经济结构或将面临更为严峻的经济下行压力。 原 90 天暂缓期内发生了什么? 原定于 7 月 9 日结束的 90 天豁免期内, 东盟各 国为规避预期关税压力,对美出口呈现明显的"抢跑式出口"特征,电子器件 成为最活跃的产品类别。谈判方面,据美方信息,越南已完成对美关税协议, 但双方对协定税率或存在认知偏差,这一"乌龙"事件为东盟谈判前景增加了 不确定性。 美方阻止转口、消减逆差的谈判诉求会实现吗?我们认为以关税阻断中国转口路 径、修复美国贸易逆差、引导制造业回流缺乏现实基础与理论支撑。从全球贸 易格局来看,中国制造业已深度嵌入全球产业链体系, ...

Group 1 - The US Treasury Secretary, Becerra, will visit Japan for the first time since taking office, coinciding with the "US National Day" event at the Osaka Expo on July 19 [2] - The US has announced a 25% tariff on all Japanese and South Korean products starting August 1, 2025, which is slightly higher than the previously announced 24% [2][3] - Japan's trade representative, Akizawa, emphasized that the automotive sector is a core issue in negotiations, stating that the 25% tariff on cars and parts has caused significant losses for Japanese companies [3] Group 2 - The Japanese government is unlikely to show signs of compromise before the Senate elections on July 20, which may delay substantial negotiations until after that date [3] - Since July 7, Trump has sent letters to over 20 countries, including Japan and South Korea, announcing the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" [4] - Experts suggest that while there are significant differences in key areas like subsidies and technology transfer, there is an increasing momentum for bilateral and regional negotiations [5]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发表研报表示，自4月2日美国宣布对等关税后，尽管日元对美元小幅升值，但对 其他G10货币普遍走弱，名义有效汇率(NEER)呈现下降趋势。这一现象的背后，是市场对日元多头头寸的逐步 平仓，以及多重经济与政治因素的共同作用。 报告指出，推动日元多头平仓的因素包括：全球股市上涨改善风险情绪、市场对日本央行加息的预期降温、日 本国内政治不确定性引发财政担忧、美日货币协议预期减弱以及日本"去美元化"进程停滞。其中，4月22日特朗 普表态不打算解雇美联储主席鲍威尔并暗示对中国立场软化后，全球股市反弹，标普500指数和东证指数均回 升至关税前水平，而4月下旬至6月下旬期间，股市上涨与日元贬值呈现相关性。 对于日元走势，摩根大通分析认为，上述因素对日元汇率的影响喜忧参半，整体影响有限，日元大幅升值的可 能性较低，多头头寸将继续逐步平仓。这是因为在日元未显著升值的情况下，投资者缺乏维持负收益日元多头 头寸的强烈动机。不过，即便所有国际货币市场(IMM)日元多头头寸平仓，日元名义有效汇率跌幅也相对有 限，预计在-1.6%至-1.4%之间。 | explanatory | C | IMM | TPX | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent tariff increases announced by President Trump on imports from Mexico and Canada, citing drug control issues as the primary reason, while also indicating that the actual impact on trade may be limited due to existing trade agreements [1][6]. Group 1: Tariff Increases - On August 1, a 30% tariff will be imposed on goods imported from Mexico, and a 35% tariff on goods from Canada [1]. - The tariffs are justified by Trump's claims of insufficient action by both countries in controlling drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl [1][6]. - The increase in tariffs is seen as a strategy to pressure Canada and Mexico into further concessions during ongoing trade negotiations [3][12]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Agreements - The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) provides exemptions for many products, which may limit the actual impact of the new tariffs [4][13]. - Most goods imported from Canada and Mexico currently enjoy low average tariff rates, often below 1% [4]. - The article notes that the trade relationship is heavily interdependent, with Canada and Mexico relying significantly on the US market for exports [12]. Group 3: Economic Implications - If comprehensive tariffs are applied, it could raise US prices by approximately 1.2%, affecting consumer goods and potentially leading to public dissatisfaction [5]. - The tariffs may also influence the automotive industry by increasing local sourcing requirements, although evidence of effective re-industrialization through tariffs is lacking [7]. - The potential for retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico exists, but both countries seem inclined to negotiate rather than escalate tensions [10][12].

海外宏观周报 美国贸易政策风险再升 证券分析师 | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 海外宏观 2025 年 7 月 14 日 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 海外经济政策。1）美国：政策方面，特朗普宣布一系列关税政策：7月 7日，特朗普签署行政令，将"对等关税"暂缓日期由 7月9日推迟至8 月 1 日，同日宣布对来自日本和韩国等 14 个国家的进口产品征收 25% 至 40%不等的关税；7 月 9 日，特朗普宣布对来自巴西和菲律宾等 8个 国家的进口产品征收 20%至 50%不等的关税，同日宣布将对所有进口到 美国的铜征收 50%的关税；7月10日，特朗普宣布将对加拿大商品加征 35%关税。美联储公布 6 月会议纪要显示，官员们在何时恢复降息的问 题上有分歧，大多数美联储官员预计今年晚些时候将恢复降息。美联储 理事沃勒表示，可以考虑 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming "U.S. National Day" event at the Osaka Expo on July 19 will be attended by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, marking her first visit to Japan since taking office and the first since the U.S.-Japan trade negotiations began in April [1] - Japan is seeking to discuss tariff issues with Yellen during her visit, as reported by Japanese government sources, although U.S. officials indicate that the visit will primarily focus on the expo without formal bilateral talks [1][5] - Japan's optimism regarding the trade negotiations has diminished as the U.S. has rejected Japan's requests to withdraw the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" and has pressured Japan to increase imports of U.S. goods [5][8] Group 2 - The U.S. plans to raise the "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan to 25% starting August 1, which is higher than the previously announced 24% [11][14] - This increase in tariffs has caused significant concern within Japan, especially with the upcoming Senate elections, as it may negatively impact the ruling party's chances [21][22] - The Japanese government is under pressure to negotiate effectively with the U.S. to protect national interests, with opposition leaders criticizing the government's handling of the negotiations [22][23] Group 3 - Japan's perception of its special relationship with the U.S. has been shaken by the recent tariff announcements, leading to feelings of betrayal among Japanese officials [24][26] - There are calls within Japan for a shift towards greater economic independence and collaboration with other countries to mitigate reliance on the U.S. [28]

Market Review - The domestic market shows a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with rising market risk appetite driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and expectations from important real estate meetings, leading to an increase in stock and commodity markets while the bond market remains under pressure. Major A-share indices saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, led by real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors. The banking index reached a historical high on Thursday but adjusted on Friday [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "stabilizing fund" is seen as a stabilizer for A-shares, with three main lines expected to perform well. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points for the first time this year, with large financials, "anti-involution," and technology themes showing alternating upward trends. The proportion of financing funds and northbound trading funds in the market has significantly increased, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite driven by profit-making effects. Unlike the previous "924" rally, the current A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains will require volume support, and short-term market consolidation may be needed. However, the policy support for capital markets remains strong, and the influx of medium- to long-term funds like the "stabilizing fund" suggests limited downside even if the market experiences pullbacks, presenting numerous structural opportunities in a "stable yet rising" environment [2][3]. Industry Allocation - Focus on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) In a low-interest-rate environment, stable dividend assets will continue to be an important direction for medium- to long-term fund allocation 2) Beneficiaries of price increases in related resource sectors, such as minor metals and industrial metals 3) New technology and growth sectors, including military industry, marine economy, AI computing power, and solid-state batteries [2][3].