FICC日报 | 2025-08-13 美国7月CPI同比低于预期 市场分析 商品和股指期货：工业品逢低多配。 风险 地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产 下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 FICC日报 | 2025-08-13 7月基本面仍有韧性。7月30日政治局会议明确部署下半年经济工作：对于宏观政策基调，会议强调"宏观政策要持 续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，维持"稳中有进"的基调。全球7月的 经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，新订单指数回落至49.4，非制造业保持扩张；中国7月按 美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑。中国7月CPI同比持平，PPI环比降 幅收窄，煤炭、光伏等行业竞争秩序优化减少价格拖累。美国方面，7月非农数据不及预期，但7月服务业PMI明显 改善，"大漂亮"法案或支撑后续消费。7月美国总体CPI环比上涨0.2%，符合市场预期，同比涨 ...

Economic Growth and Dependency - Ireland's GDP per capita has surpassed traditional economic powers like France and Germany, earning the title "Celtic Tiger" due to strong growth driven by globalization and export-oriented policies [1][3] - The pharmaceutical industry in Ireland has expanded significantly, with the country becoming the largest exporter of medical products in the EU, heavily reliant on exports to the US [4][6] Trade Relations and Risks - The US has imposed tariffs that threaten Ireland's economy, particularly its pharmaceutical sector, which is highly dependent on the American market [7][10] - In 2024, Ireland's total goods export is projected to reach nearly €224 billion, with medical and pharmaceutical products accounting for approximately €99.9 billion, nearly 45% of total exports [4] Impact of US Tariffs - The potential implementation of a 250% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals could severely impact Ireland's economy, with predictions of a 1.5% contraction in economic activity and the loss of 56,000 to 70,000 jobs [10][12] - In response to the looming tariffs, there was a significant surge in pharmaceutical exports to the US in early 2023, with March exports reaching €23.6 billion, a 243.3% increase year-on-year [12] Economic Volatility - Ireland's economy has shown volatility, with a GDP contraction of 1% in Q2 2023, contrasting sharply with a 7.4% growth in Q1 2023, highlighting the risks associated with its export-driven model [12]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - On August 12, Trump signed an executive order to extend the 24% reciprocal tariffs for another 90 days, while maintaining the 10% tariffs unchanged[2] - The threat of secondary tariffs on China is seen as a means to seek China's assistance regarding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire[5] - The U.S. trade war with China has led to a loss of opportunity for the U.S. to "harvest allies" in the region[7] Group 2: Future Outlook - The overall direction of U.S.-China relations is expected to remain "calm," transitioning from "gradual warming" to "strategic stability" in preparation for a potential leaders' meeting[7] - If the U.S.-Russia meeting in Alaska yields a framework consensus, the risk of secondary tariffs in the short term is low[8] - The tariff issue is anticipated to gradually "fade and dull," as both China's production capacity and U.S. consumption capacity are strong enough to mitigate substantial impacts from tariffs[8] Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - The specific content and outcomes of the U.S.-Russia leaders' meeting remain uncertain[3] - The actual prospects for U.S.-China secondary tariffs and future meetings are also uncertain[9]

其次，印度面临的经济困境也是原因之一。印度早在几十年前就与美国展开了贸易谈判，本以为能获得一个相对有利的贸易协议，然而特朗普提出的条件几 乎没有给印度任何妥协的空间。美国要求印度大幅降低对美国药品、钢铁等重要商品的进口关税，要求开放数字服务领域，并进一步推动转基因作物的进 口。这些要求对印度来说是无法接受的，特别是在农业经济如此脆弱的背景下。印度的小农经济在面对美国工业化的冲击时，根本没有竞争力，而放宽关税 政策无疑会摧毁印度大部分农民的生计。此外，印度与阿拉伯国家的关系因为国内的宗教冲突变得紧张，稳定的能源供应几乎只能依赖俄罗斯，因此美国要 求印度放弃从俄罗斯购买能源，这对于印度来说是极为不现实的。 再来看特朗普为何如此针对印度。特朗普一方面推行所谓的"对等关税"政策，对盟友与 敌人一视同仁，但印度坚决反对美国的要求，使得特朗普认为印度是一个难缠的对手。更为重要的是，特朗普可能意识到，印度已不再具备原有的战略意 义。早前，印度在国际上被美欧视为遏制中国的关键合作伙伴，因此西方对印度的支持可谓是源源不断。然而随着印度在国际局势中的自我膨胀，尤其是印 巴冲突后，印度似乎不再是美西方可以依赖的"稳定因素"。有评论 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals in July remained resilient. The Politburo meeting on July 30 set the tone for the second - half economic work, emphasizing continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies, with a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - The July economic data globally showed resilience. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, and the new order index fell to 49.4, while the non - manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, better than expected. The CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline in PPI narrowed [2]. - In the US, the July non - farm payroll data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly. The "Great Beauty" Act may support subsequent consumption. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "reciprocal tariff" and the subsequent demand situation [2]. - For commodities, domestic supply - side is most sensitive in the black and new - energy metal sectors. Energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged by downstream demand expectations, and the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector persists. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term [3]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to go long on industrial products at low prices [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Global economic data in July was resilient. China's manufacturing PMI declined, but exports were strong. The US had mixed economic data. The "reciprocal tariff" policy may affect external - demand - sensitive commodities. After the July interest - rate meeting, there was uncertainty about the Fed's September interest - rate decision [2]. Commodity Analysis - Different commodity sectors have different situations. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation. The energy supply is expected to be loose with OPEC+ increasing production. The "anti - involution" space in some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations [3]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy industrial products at low prices [4]. Market Performance - On August 11, the A - share market rose, with most stocks up and a trading volume of about 1.85 trillion. Some commodities like industrial silicon and红枣 rose, while others like eggs and container shipping to Europe declined. Bond yields increased, and spot gold dropped by over 1.4% [5]. Important News - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest - rate cuts this year and will host a community bank meeting on October 9. US President Trump will meet with Russian President Putin on August 15 to discuss the Ukraine crisis, and the White House is considering inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky [5].

新华社马塞卢8月5日电 记者手记｜莱索托纺织业遭美滥施关税政策严重冲击 新华社记者闫然 白舸 8月的莱索托正值冬季。寒风中，三五成群的纺织工人迷茫地穿梭于首都马塞卢工业区的制衣工厂，挨家询问是否招工，试图重新找到一份工作 养家糊口。美国威胁对所有贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关税"，莱索托这个经济贫弱的国家受到严重冲击，特别是支柱产业纺织业。 美国7月31日晚公布对69个贸易伙伴的关税税率。根据白宫公告内容，来自莱索托的商品出口到美国将被征收15%的关税。对于这个出口依赖加 工美国品牌并销往美国市场的国家的纺织业来说，莫名加征的关税已成为重负乃至灾难。 作为联合国认定的世界最不发达国家之一，莱索托这个人口230万的非洲南部内陆国家，近一半人口生活在贫困线以下，失业率接近四分之一， 对美国加征的关税毫无还手之力。 成立于2016年的非洲出口纺织品工厂是莱索托规模较大的本土纺织厂。负责人泰博霍·科贝利表示，订单骤停对企业造成重创，"我们不得不裁 员近500人以缓解突如其来的经营压力"。 2021年，非洲出口纺织品工厂曾计划在马塞卢10个区域设立工厂并雇用上万名工人。"4年过去，当初的愿景没能实现。"科贝利遗憾地说。非洲 ...

新华社北京7月8日电 经济热点问答｜谈判延期又施压加码 美最新关税动作怎么看 新华社记者俞懋峰 美国总统特朗普7日宣布将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税，并决定将"对等关税"暂缓 期截止日期延长至8月1日。一些美国媒体将最新系列举措解读为升级贸易战之举。 哪些国家面临美国最新关税威胁？金融市场和贸易伙伴如何回应美方动作？美政府将谈判延期又施压加码背后有何意图？ 7月8日，在日本东京，日本首相石破茂（左）在综合对策总部会议上发言。新华社/共同社 哪些国家面临美最新关税威胁？ 特朗普当天在社交媒体上陆续发布他写给日本、韩国等14国领导人的信函，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收25%到40%不等的关税。 根据信函，日本、韩国、马来西亚、突尼斯、哈萨克斯坦将被征收25%的关税，南非和波黑将被征收30%的关税，印度尼西亚将被征收32% 的关税，塞尔维亚和孟加拉国将被征收35%的关税，泰国和柬埔寨将被征收36%的关税，老挝和缅甸则面临40%的关税。 同一天，特朗普签署行政令，延长"对等关税"90天暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。特朗普表示，8月1日的期限不是"1 ...

周二（8月12日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.49，跌幅0.01%，开盘价为98.51。 澳新银行的经济学 家TomKenny表示，美国7月份核心CPI可能环比上涨0.32%，这将推动同比升幅从2.9%升至3.0%。 特朗普政府于4月初设定的对等关税现已对大多数国家实施。目前进口商品的实际关税税率在20%左 右，Kenny预计，与近几个月相比，关税将在7月份对通胀产生一些影响。不过，他还表示，鉴于近期 劳动力市场状况降温以及核心服务业通胀回归长期趋势，美联储在9月份会议上下调联邦基金利率是合 适的。 美元指数整体处于震荡格局。MACD指标(26,12,9)显示DIFF线(0.1007)刚刚下穿DEA线(0.1277)，MACD 值为0.0545，暗示短期动能减弱，可能面临回调压力。 ...

2025.08. 12 本文字数：1959，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 当地时间11日，世贸组织（WTO）确认，巴西已就美国关税措施向WTO提出争端磋商请求。 巴西称，美国已对所有巴西产品征收10%的关税，并对部分巴西原产产品额外征收40%的关税。第一财经记者看到，该争端磋商请求的通讯 文件已于8月11日分发给WTO各成员。 巴西称，美国这些措施违反了《1994年关税与贸易总协定》(GATT 1994)和《关于争端解决规则与程序的谅解》(DSU)中多项条款。 据央视报道，当地时间8月5日，巴西总统卢拉称，美国总统无权对巴西加征50%的高额关税，巴西政府将保护受影响的工人和企业，动用一 切可用手段，首先是向世界贸易组织提出申诉，以捍卫国家利益。 通讯文件显示，7月15日，USTR办公室启动了对巴西所谓"对美国社交媒体公司以及其他损害美国公司、工人、农民和技术创新者的不公平 贸易行为"的301条款调查。随后在7月30日，美国总统发布了一项题为"应对巴西政府对美国构成的威胁"的行政命令。该行政命令重申了美 国总统于7月9日致巴西总统的信函中提出的指控。 该行政命令声称，巴西政府所谓的"政策、做法 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazil has formally requested dispute consultations with the WTO regarding the high tariffs imposed by the United States, claiming these measures violate multiple provisions of international trade agreements [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff Measures - The U.S. has imposed a 10% tariff on all Brazilian products and an additional 40% tariff on certain Brazilian-origin products [1][3]. - Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports, which Brazil argues is unjustified and unrelated to the economic relationship between the two countries [3][4]. - Brazil asserts that the U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil, contradicting claims that the trade deficit poses a significant threat to U.S. economic security [3][4]. Group 2: Legal Basis for the Complaint - Brazil claims that the U.S. actions violate the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT 1994) and the Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU) [5][6]. - Specific violations include the imposition of additional tariffs on Brazilian products while exempting certain other trading partners, which Brazil argues is discriminatory [6]. - Brazil reserves the right to present further facts and claims during the consultation process and anticipates a response from the U.S. regarding the request [6].