Macro News - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to a defensive stance among dollar bulls, while a mild decline in CPI data has increased expectations for future interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, President Trump's threats of military action due to unrest in Iran, the White House's insistence on purchasing Greenland, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support precious metals [1] - The Philadelphia Fed President Harker reiterated that if inflation continues to decline as expected and the labor market stabilizes, the Federal Reserve may further lower interest rates later this year [1] - The PPI and core PPI in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year in November, while market expectations were at 2.7%, with rising energy costs being the main driver of PPI increases [1] - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in November, the fastest growth since July, driven by a rebound in auto sales and strong holiday shopping [1] Institutional Views - In the short term, challenges to monetary policy independence and escalating geopolitical tensions have heightened safe-haven demand and trading sentiment for precious metals, but potential profit-taking by investors at high levels may lead to price corrections [1] - In the medium term, weak U.S. manufacturing, the overarching trend of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to pressure the dollar, supporting an increase in precious metals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Fund predicts a "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, driven by profit recovery taking over from valuation repair, with technology and cyclical sectors as the main investment themes [2][4]. Investment Themes - The technology sector, particularly the domestic computing power industry, is expected to enter a capital expenditure acceleration phase, marking 2026 as a "year of capital expenditure" [2][6]. - The cyclical sector is anticipated to evolve into a "blooming" market, supported by global monetary easing and domestic supply-side optimization policies [3][4]. Economic Projections - Assuming a GDP growth target of 5% for 2026 and a PPI recovery to approximately -0.4%, industrial revenue and profit growth are projected to rise to 5.6% and 8.4%, respectively [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The market's momentum is shifting from valuation repair to profit-driven growth, with structural opportunities becoming more pronounced [4][5]. - The liquidity environment remains favorable, with increased retail participation and stable long-term capital inflows from institutional investors [5]. AI and Technology Investment - The AI sector is identified as a core investment theme, with significant potential for capital expenditure growth, potentially reaching $3 trillion by 2030 [6][7]. - The shift in AI models towards a "computing power, storage, and interconnection" system is expected to create new investment opportunities in the storage industry [7]. Cyclical Sector Insights - The cyclical sector is expected to see diverse growth, with metals like gold and copper showing strong potential due to supply constraints and changing demand dynamics [8][9]. - The chemical industry is highlighted as a promising area due to declining capital expenditure and improving supply-demand dynamics [9]. Financial Services Outlook - The insurance sector is favored due to reduced liability costs and improved investment returns, while brokerage firms are expected to benefit from valuation recovery and increased leverage [10].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant growth, with record-high prices and ETF sizes, indicating strong investor interest and potential future trends in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of January 14, 2026, international spot gold prices reached a record high of $4630 per ounce, while domestic gold ETF market saw the Huaan Gold ETF surpass 100.76 billion yuan, becoming the first commodity ETF to exceed the 100 billion yuan mark [1][2]. - The gold market has been a standout asset class since 2025, with domestic gold prices significantly outperforming other asset categories, ending 2025 above $4500 per ounce [2]. - In early 2026, gold prices increased by 6% within the first half of January, with silver prices also hitting a historical high of $93 per ounce, reflecting a 28% increase for the year [2]. Group 2: Growth of Gold ETFs - The Huaan Gold ETF, launched in 2013, saw an influx of 65.31 billion yuan in 2025, making it the largest growing ETF that year, and added another 6.777 billion yuan in January 2026 [2]. - Four other gold ETFs have also surpassed 10 billion yuan in size, including Bosera Gold ETF at 43.976 billion yuan, E Fund Gold ETF at 38.710 billion yuan, Guotai Gold ETF at 32.584 billion yuan, and Huaxia Gold ETF at 13.169 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to both short-term and long-term factors, including geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary policy changes due to investigations involving the Federal Reserve Chairman [4]. - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, driven by concerns over developed economies' debt and interest rate volatility, enhancing gold's status as a reserve asset [4][5]. - Recent adjustments in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) may create short-term buying opportunities for gold and silver [4]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives and Market Adjustments - Institutions are optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold, with predictions of prices potentially exceeding $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026, while short-term caution is advised due to insufficient fundamental support [10]. - Regulatory bodies and fund managers are implementing risk control measures, such as the temporary suspension of subscriptions for certain gold ETFs to optimize operational efficiency and manage risks [6][10]. - Investment strategies suggested include diversified asset allocation and a focus on medium-term positioning rather than short-term speculation [10].

他补充称，美国人工智能相关交易正推动外资购买美国金融资产创下历史新高，这一趋势难以逆转。 （新华财经） 该行认为"去美元化"叙事缺乏说服力，反而观察到"再美元化"迹象，这受到美国强劲的增长预期、生产 率提升及人工智能热潮的支撑。由于美元仍提供有吸引力的收益率，亚洲出口商将美元兑换为本币的比 例依然较低。 渣打银行东盟与南亚外汇研究联席主管Divya Devesh在其2026年经济展望中表示，该行看空今年亚洲地 区货币走势，预计其将普遍跑输美元。 ...

Group 1 - The core logic of the current surge in non-ferrous metals is driven by a combination of monetary system reconstruction, demand revolution, and supply constraints, which is expected to have a more sustained impact than the previous infrastructure-driven cycle in 2006 [4][5] - The demand for non-ferrous metals is being fueled by new engines such as renewable energy, AI, and high-end manufacturing, which are consuming metal resources at an annual growth rate of over 20% [3][4] - The geopolitical landscape is influencing resource countries to use mineral exports as leverage, leading to a significant reduction in global mining capital expenditure from 2020 to 2025, resulting in almost zero new capacity in 2026 [4] Group 2 - The supply-demand imbalance is evident, with LME copper inventory sufficient for only 1.5 days of global consumption and Shanghai aluminum inventory down 70% from its peak in 2025 [4] - The increasing use of copper in electric vehicles, AI data centers, and the growing demand for aluminum in renewable energy applications are key drivers of future demand [6] - Companies with resource self-sufficiency and technological barriers, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, are expected to enjoy excess profits, while those relying solely on processing may face cost pressures [6] Group 3 - The long-term bullish trend for copper, aluminum, and silver is expected to continue at least until 2027, despite short-term volatility [6] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with supply shortages, such as copper, while avoiding those with oversupply, like aluminum and lithium [6] - Direct investment in resource-focused active funds is recommended, with top holdings including Yun Aluminum, Tianshan, and Zijin, to mitigate individual stock volatility [6]

特朗普以伊朗为借口推出的连坐式关税政策，表面上看似是针对伊朗的经济制裁，但实质上却是对中国在中东及全球贸易影响力的直接 打击。中伊之间早已做出预判并采取了应对措施，这一系列变动有可能推动全球贸易格局的加速多元化。 曾经，中国可能会在国际舞台上受到强压，但如今的中国已不再是任人宰割的存在。美国的一些举措，往往适得其反，反倒为中国提供 了更多的机遇。特朗普宣布对伊朗及其贸易伙伴征收25%的关税，表面上是针对伊朗，实则首当其冲的是中国。去年，中伊之间的贸易 额已超过1000亿美元，占伊朗外贸总量近四成。虽然中国并非伊朗唯一的受影响方，但却无疑是最大的目标。然而，结果却是，中伊两 国早早就进行了防护准备：通过人民币结算、易货贸易、第三国中转等手段，把美国的压力转化为推动多元贸易体系发展的催化剂。 中国在伊朗的投资布局也稳步推进。去年，中国在伊朗启动了32个项目，投资金额超过500亿美元，涉及新能源、基础设施建设、制造业 等多个领域。中国企业不仅在当地建立了汽车、家电和光伏组件的生产厂，还通过这些产品出口到中亚、中东等地区，从而绕开了关税 壁垒。这种合作不仅仅是经济层面的，更是一种战略布局，确保了中国在该地区经济中的主 ...

专题：2026全球与中国资本市场展望论坛 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 1月15日，2026全球与中国资本市场展望论坛举行，大咖云集，共话AI时代财富新逻辑与资本市场未 来。 中金公司研究部董事总经理、海外与港股策略首席分析师刘刚发表主旨演讲。 对于美股，刘刚认为无需过度悲观，甚至需警惕过热风险。从细分维度看，美股AI领域尚未达到泡沫 程度，即便未来走向泡沫，也不应过早离场，当前市场对AI的预期偏高，需等待基本面跟进；财政方 面，2026年美国财政扩张幅度虽小于2025年，但存在超预期空间，特朗普为中期选举推动的非国会批准 资金及实物投资计划，将在一季度拉动强周期板块需求。综合来看，美股估值虽有争议，但盈利端仍有 10%-15%的增长空间，整体保持积极判断。 美元走势方面，刘刚认为不会大幅走弱，甚至可能小幅走强，核心逻辑仍锚定信用周期与基本面。黄金 则补充了新视角：若金价涨至5500美元，将形成两套势均力敌的信用派生体系，"去美元化"不应被无限 外推，部分国家增持美债与黄金的行为，正体现了信用体系的多元选择，而香港作为窗口的价值，将随 外部环境收紧愈发凸显。 新浪声 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of China's first gold ETF with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan coincides with international gold prices surpassing $4,600 per ounce, indicating a significant milestone in the domestic gold investment landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Gold ETF Market Overview - As of January 14, the latest circulating scale of Huaan Gold ETF reached 100.762 billion yuan, making it the first gold ETF in China to surpass the 100 billion yuan mark and the largest in Asia [2][4]. - In the past year, Huaan Gold ETF has seen a net inflow of approximately 43 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest as gold prices continue to rise [4]. - The total market scale of 14 gold ETFs in China has reached 263.439 billion yuan, showcasing the growing popularity of gold as an investment vehicle [4]. Group 2: Innovations and Adjustments in Gold ETFs - The development of gold ETFs in China began in 2009, with Huaan Gold ETF being one of the first products launched in July 2013, aimed at enhancing liquidity and investment diversity [4]. - Several fund companies have adjusted their physical redemption prices and minimum redemption units to improve liquidity and risk management amid rising gold prices [6][8]. - For instance, E Fund announced a temporary suspension of its gold ETF's subscription due to adjustments in the physical gold contract arrangements, aiming to protect the interests of fund shareholders [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Multiple fund companies maintain an optimistic outlook for gold prices, citing factors such as the ongoing Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and a trend towards de-dollarization [10][11]. - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and challenges to the dollar's credit system, positioning gold as a potential new pricing anchor [10][12]. - Analysts suggest that the current low correlation between gold and other asset classes like stocks and bonds enhances gold's value in investment portfolios, particularly in the context of low domestic interest rates [12].

分析认为，短期多重"降温"信号共振，令金属市场有对近期涨幅修正的可能。但短期波动不改金属板块 长期易涨难跌的格局。 新华财经北京1月15日电（吴郑思） 2026年以来，金属市场再迎多头狂欢。在供应紧张、人工智能及新 能源远期需求预期等一系列因素作用下，以白银、锡、镍、铜等为代表的金属板块多头热情高涨，国际 银价先后突破93美元／盎司关口，锡价本月飙升超35%、沪锡一度突破44万元／吨关口，镍也在不到一 个月时间内完成了对此前一年半下跌行情的修正。 不过，随着短期内部分利多因素发生变化，15日早盘，银锡镍等强势金属不同程度迎来回调。盘面上 看，截至15日早盘收盘时，国际银价大幅回落近6%，低点至87美元/盎司下方，伦铜回落至13000美元/ 吨以下，锡镍铝等主要金属也均自隔夜高点回落。国内沪银由涨转跌，铜铝锌镍锡等也不同程度收窄涨 幅。 短期多重"降温"信号共振 事实上，近期市场多个层面都在释放出"降温"的信号。 从宏观层面看，国内方面，1月14日，沪深北三大交易所同步发布通知，宣布经中国证监会批准，将投 资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从现行的80%上调至100%。通知明确表明，此举旨在适当 降低杠杆水 ...

以央为鉴,金价或仍有空间 自1970年以来,黄金曾出现过6轮大牛市,平均持 续近65个月,涨幅平均值达334.57%。而本轮黄 金行情自2022年11月以来已持续34个月，累计涨 幅超150%，未来或仍有进一步震荡上涨空间。 | 1970年以来黄金6轮牛市表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 时期 | 持续时间 (月) | 累计收益 (%) | | 1970年1月-1975年1月 | 61 | 451.4 | | 1976年10月-1980年2月 | 41 | 721.3 | | 1985年3月-1987年12月 | 33 | 75.8 | | 1993年4月-1996年2月 | 35 | 27.2 | | 1999年10月-2011年9月 | 144 | 649.6 | | 2016年1月-2022年3月 | 74 | 82.14 | 以上数据来源:WIND、东吴证券,以伦敦金现统计。伦敦金现2020年-2024年、2025年上半年涨跌幅依次 为25.07%、-3.60%、-0.35%、13.16%、27.23%、25.84%。指数数据仅供参考，不作为任何投资建议或 收益暗示。指数过 ...