不出所料，美国联邦政府宣布"停摆"。 因两党在医保相关福利等方面的分歧，美国会参议院9月30日未能在政府资金耗尽前通过新的临时拨款法案。美东时间10月1日零时起，美国联邦政府时隔近 七年再次"停摆"。 美国政府"关门"，进一步加剧经济压力 美国国会预算办公室估计，政府停摆期间，每天可能有大约75万联邦雇员被迫休假。 美国副总统万斯警告称，如果联邦政府"停摆"持续时间较长，可能会引发裁员。白宫发言人莱维特声称，联邦政府裁员很可能发生。 美国联邦政府"停摆"的消息引发全球舆论的热议。有趣的是，有网友翻出了特朗普14年前接受采访的"打脸"视频——在视频中，特朗普直言，"政府停摆有 人觉得怪民主党，有人觉得怪共和党，但我认为被指责的人应该是总统。" 虽然在美国,"驴象之争"不断上演，政府关门也不是什么新鲜戏码。 但不少人担忧，这次停摆将比往常更持久，从而加重本已脆弱的经济压力。 这也导致昨日出炉的"小非农"就业报告备受市场关注。 当地时间10月1日，美国9月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅。该数据低于所有经济学家的预估区间，也进一步放大了经济降温的信 号。 ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查德森表 ...

Group 1: National Strategic Guidance - The development of stablecoins has become an important part of national financial strategy, supported by policies from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the central bank's guidance on digital asset compliance [1] - The core objective of supporting stablecoin projects is to break the dominance of the US in the global stablecoin market and to maintain financial sovereignty [1][4] - The collaboration between Guotai Junan and Health China Phase IV to issue stablecoins is a significant move to diversify the global financial landscape [1][4] Group 2: Breaking Dollar Hegemony - Over 70% of cross-border digital transactions rely on US dollar stablecoins, allowing the US to influence other countries' economic stability through monetary policy adjustments [3] - The stablecoin issued by Guotai Junan and Health China Phase IV aims to disrupt the dollar's dominance by utilizing independent technology and settlement systems [4] - The stablecoin has already facilitated a cross-border transaction worth 500 million yuan, showcasing its ability to bypass dollar-related risks and US financial restrictions [4] Group 3: Economic Empowerment in Global Trade - Traditional cross-border settlement methods are often cumbersome and costly, hindering the internationalization of Chinese enterprises [5] - The stablecoin allows for direct "point-to-point" transactions, significantly reducing settlement time from 5-7 days to under 10 minutes, enhancing capital turnover efficiency by 80% [5][6] - Transaction fees for the stablecoin are below 0.5%, compared to 2%-3% for traditional methods, effectively lowering costs and currency risk for enterprises [6] Group 4: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The stablecoin represents a significant achievement in China's digital financial innovation and serves as a strategic tool for maintaining financial sovereignty [7] - As the stablecoin's global application expands, China will gain more influence in international financial cooperation, improving the trading environment for Chinese enterprises [7] - Continuous optimization of the stablecoin's functions and services is expected to further enhance its role in promoting global financial diversification and supporting high-quality economic development in China [7]

四、结语：国产稳定币的时代价值与未来 国泰君安与健康中国四期联合推出的稳定币，不仅是中国应对全球金融变局的战略布局，更是金融服务回归民生本质的创新实践。它打 破了美元稳定币的垄断逻辑，为全球提供了更安全、更合规的数字金融方案；它锚定健康民生需求，让金融产品真正服务于普通人的生 活；它赋能全球贸易与健康合作，推动中国方案走向世界。 随着数字经济的发展，这款稳定币还将不断拓展应用场景 —— 未来，我们或许能看到它在跨境医保结算、全球健康公益项目中的应 用，甚至成为连接全球健康数据与金融服务的 "基础设施"。对于每一个参与者而言，这不仅是一次资产配置的机会，更是见证中国金融 创新、参与全球健康事业的重要历程，而国泰君安与健康中国四期的合作，也将成为 "国有金融机构服务国家战略、赋能民生发展" 的 典范。 在此背景下，国泰君安联合健康中国四期推出的国产稳定币，走出了一条 "破局突围" 的新路径。与私人机构发行的美元稳定币不同， 这款国产稳定币以国家信用为背书，储备资产由国债、政策性金融债等低风险资产构成，且接入央行金融监管大数据平台，实现每一笔 交易的实时可追溯。这种 "国有控股 + 合规运营" 的模式，既规避了私人 ...

北京时间10月1日，金价再创新高。Wind数据显示，截至发稿，伦敦现货黄金盘中最高价突破3895.28美元/盎司，截至发稿 报3889.28美元/盎司。 据悉，多家黄金珠宝品牌当日公布的境内足金首饰价格也水涨船高，最高已攀升至1130元/克。 "金价高的时候，我们不敢备太多，因为价格越高库存（跌价）风险就越高。我们现在采取的是'卖多少就买回多少'的策略， 只要有利润我们就会拿去买金料保持住仓位，不会轻易增加库存。"水贝市场一家金饰门店的陈经理对记者表示，"按克重计 价的黄金饰品毛利率多在10%至20%左右，品牌金饰门店主推的'一口价'金饰毛利率在30%至40%左右，品牌金店大力推 广"一口价"模式，就是看准了黄金消费正在向悦己价值方向转变的趋势，也可以更好应对金价上涨带来的压力。" 不过，也有商家表示，与品牌金饰门店的价格以及"一口价"金饰相比，金价越涨，水贝市场的价格越来越有"可比性"，反过 来会吸引一些消费者前来购买。 展望四季度，黄金方面，徐颖表示，美国政府债务问题，以及去美元化交易的中长期逻辑依然存在，这决定了黄金或将继续 保持牛市格局。同时，美联储独立性问题从长期来看仍有进一步发酵的可能，一旦与其他 ...

据悉，多家黄金珠宝品牌当日公布的境内足金首饰价格也水涨船高，最高已攀升至1130元/克。 具体而言，10月1日，周生生足金首饰境内价格为1130元/克，单克较两日前（9月29日）上涨19元；周 大福足金（首饰、摆件类）、六福珠宝足金999/足金、谢瑞麟足金饰品、潮宏基足金（首饰摆件）境内 价格为1129元/克，单克较两日前上涨21元；老庙黄金上海区域足金饰品价格为1125元/克，单克较两日 前上涨17元。 另据媒体报道，10月1日，记者走访深圳水贝市场发现，金饰金价已经达到每克888元。与此对比的是， 9月初水贝市场的金饰克价在796元左右。在价格攀升的同时，现场的人气稍显不足，但商家们表示，假 期刚刚开始，预计假期中间时段的人气最高。 "我们也没想到金价越涨越高。"一位水贝市场金饰柜台的负责人表示，"留深和来深过节的人越来越 多，最近几天来买黄金的顾客就有不少是来深旅游的外地游客，我们也想抓住这波金价小高潮，多做点 生意。" 北京时间10月1日，金价再创新高。Wind数据显示，截至发稿，伦敦现货黄金盘中最高价突破3895.28美 元/盎司，截至发稿报3889.28美元/盎司。 不过，也有商家表示，与品牌金饰 ...

Core Insights - The global commodity futures market has shown a clear divergence in performance during the first three quarters of the year, with the CRB price index closing at 300.6 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 1.31% [1] - Precious metals, particularly U.S. platinum futures, have significantly outperformed other commodities, with platinum futures showing the highest cumulative increase of 77.45% [2][3] - The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests that the macro environment for commodities may stabilize due to the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, although the divergence in commodity performance is expected to continue due to fundamental differences among various commodities [1][5] Commodity Performance Overview - Among the 32 major global commodity futures, 12 commodities achieved positive returns in the first three quarters, representing 37.5% of the total [1] - The top-performing commodities include: - U.S. platinum futures: 77.45% - COMEX silver futures: 60.12% - COMEX gold futures: 47.35% - U.S. palladium futures: 42.11% [2][3] - Conversely, several commodities experienced significant declines, with ICE orange juice futures dropping by 50.23%, and ICE cocoa futures down by 41.91% [4][5] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the strong performance of platinum is supported by both macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, with a projected supply-demand gap for platinum expected to reach a historically high level in 2025 [5] - The anticipated continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is expected to further support commodity prices, particularly gold, which is projected to maintain a bullish trend due to ongoing U.S. government debt issues [6] - In the oil market, an increase in supply coupled with seasonal demand decline is expected to create downward pressure on prices, with Brent crude oil futures projected to range between $59 and $74 per barrel [6][7] - For copper, the combination of limited supply growth due to production incidents and strong demand from the renewable energy sector is expected to positively influence prices, with forecasts suggesting a trading range of $9,800 to $11,000 per ton [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the gold market is experiencing a historic opportunity, with international gold prices reaching a record high of $3707 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September [1] - The three main factors supporting the continued rise in gold prices are the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, ongoing geopolitical risks, and increasing demand for gold from global central banks [2] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to a target range of 4%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, which has historically led to an increase in gold prices [2] Group 2 - Central banks are becoming net buyers of gold, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves to 74.02 million ounces as of August 2025, marking a continuous increase for ten months [5] - In the second quarter, global central banks collectively added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, indicating a structural demand shift that differs from short-term speculative buying [5] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains in an upward trend, and any significant pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity, supported by the Fed's rate cut cycle and geopolitical uncertainties [6] Group 3 - Several Wall Street institutions have raised their 2026 gold price forecasts to $4000 per ounce, highlighting the historic opportunity in the gold market [7] - A promotional activity by a leading precious metals company offers a reduced trading cost of $26 per lot for investors who deposit $3000, facilitating easier market entry [7]

Group 1 - The new U.S. government's attempts to reshape the global landscape through diplomatic mediation and economic pressure have faced significant setbacks, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global tariff wars, marking a severe policy deviation since 1945 [2][4][18] - The U.S. has struggled to effectively coordinate with European partners in mediating the Russia-Ukraine situation, leading to a perception of isolation in its diplomatic efforts [4][6] - The imposition of tariffs on imports from countries like China, Japan, and South Korea has revealed weaknesses in U.S. policy, as these nations have resisted additional restrictions, impacting U.S. economic interests [6][14] Group 2 - The U.S. has shifted its beef and soybean imports from domestic sources to Brazil and Argentina, resulting in a 20% increase in supply while maintaining stable prices [8] - The suspension of Boeing aircraft deliveries has led to over $20 billion in losses for the U.S. aviation industry, prompting a 30% increase in domestic production of the C919 aircraft [8][16] - The U.S. has implemented strict licensing for rare earth exports, causing delays in military production and increasing costs, with a 15% delay in F-35 components [10][12] Group 3 - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates has exacerbated economic pressures, with bond yields rising from 4% to 4.5% and a 10% fluctuation in the dollar's exchange rate [10][12] - The U.S. has seen a gradual reduction in its holdings of Treasury bonds, dropping from $784.3 billion at the beginning of the year to $730.7 billion by July, marking a 16-year low [12][14] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings has led to increased volatility in yields, complicating U.S. financing efforts [14][18] Group 4 - The failure of U.S. mediation efforts has emboldened Russia and accelerated the trend of de-dollarization in global trade [18] - The U.S. is advised to continue reducing its Treasury bond holdings and diversify into gold and euros to safeguard its interests while promoting the internationalization of the renminbi [18]

值得注意的是，华夏基金认为，黄金的定价逻辑正在发生深层次变化。过去，金价更多与美元利率、通 胀预期直接挂钩。而如今，在去美元化趋势、全球央行购金需求、货币信用体系重构等因素的推动下， 黄金逐渐成为新一轮金融秩序博弈中的核心资产。 推荐大家看 来源：江苏新闻 编辑：周希惠 责编：王蜜安 审核：江 川 终审：许昌亮 9月30日，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中再创历史新高，成功突破3850美元/盎司关口，最高达到每盎司 3871.73美元。但目前已经回调跌到3819.47美元/盎司。 实际上，这轮金价上涨行情已经持续了7天，不断突破前高，此前的高点是9月23日盘中达到的每盎司 3791.08美元。 对于黄金短时间内不断刷新历史纪录的原因，华夏基金分析称，一方面，美联储进入降息通道。降息削 弱了美元的吸引力，提升了黄金的配置价值。另一方面，全球范围内的避险需求依然旺盛。美国债务高 企，地缘政治不确定性加剧叠加各国央行持续购金，都成为金价的底层支撑。 + ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns about the country's growing debt, which is seen as a new driver for gold prices to rise by the end of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices have recently surpassed $3,870, with Comex gold futures reaching above $3,900 [1]. - BMO Capital Markets has significantly raised its price forecasts for gold and silver, predicting an average gold price of around $3,900 per ounce in Q4 2025, an 8% increase from previous estimates [3]. - Analysts expect gold prices to exceed $4,000 per ounce next year and project an average price of $4,400 per ounce by 2026, a 26% increase from earlier forecasts [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Analysts note that geopolitical and financial system changes over the past 2-3 years have led to lasting shifts in gold demand [4]. - Concerns about U.S. debt levels are becoming more prominent, with analysts identifying these worries as a key driver of gold's price increase [4]. - The growing interest in gold as a hedge against long-term currency devaluation is evidenced by strong inflows into gold ETFs [4]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - BMO expects silver to outperform gold in the near term, forecasting an average price of $45 per ounce in Q4, a 41% increase from previous estimates [5]. - The silver price is projected to reach $50 per ounce by Q2 next year, with an average price of $49.50 per ounce in 2026, a 57% increase from earlier predictions [5]. - Strong industrial demand is expected to support silver prices, with analysts highlighting its potential for greater elasticity compared to gold due to its industrial applications [6].