核心观点 证券研究报告 固收 "三高"环境下的应对和选择 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 2026 年 2 月 11 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 近期全球市场呈现出高估值、高共识、高波动的"三高"状态，贵金属、比 特币、海外长债、美元指数、部分科技股等资产均出现了大幅波动。背后源 于全球流动性宽松的环境，市场共识在 AI 时代低成本的快速传播，容易带 来拥挤行情。建议在交易层面兼顾赔率，基于风险因子预算以及资产的负相 关性多元化配置，加强对市场情绪、资金流和仓位的跟踪。配置上，高估值 +高拥挤带来近日的全球市场高波动，不过各国财政+AI 资本开支推动制造 业周期回升的基本面主线仍在延续，秩序重构等主题继续演绎，多数权益和 商品处于相对顺风，建议仍以回调后择机买入为主。国内春节将至，日历效 应对股市或更偏积极，债市在长假期间有票息优势。AI 模型、伊朗局势、 春节期间的消费数据等是关注点。 核心主题："三高"环境下的应对与选择 我们认为当前"三高"的市场环境源于以下几个方面，一是全球货币宽松以 及美元走弱带来的充裕流动性环境；二是全球秩序重构、AI 科技革命等主 线在 AI 时代快速演绎；三是新资金+强叙事+强动量， ...

本周国际金价突破5000美元/盎司大关并暂时站稳高位，一份"迟到"的非农数据即将揭晓，成为压制市 场风险偏好的关键变量。 国际金价再次突破关键阻力位，重回5000美元/盎司大关。 截至2月11日，伦敦金现报5064美元/盎司，盘中最高触及5069美元/盎司；伦敦银现日内大涨5%，报 84.7美元/盎司。 然而，价格突破并未激发市场追涨热情。交易人士对记者称，当前国际金价在5000美元关键关口徘徊， 市场呈现明显分化态势：中长期资金持续流入，各国央行连续增持黄金储备，机构普遍看好全年走势； 但短期投机资金趋于谨慎，交易员并未因价格突破而大举建立多头头寸，多空双方均不敢轻举妄动，市 场观望情绪浓厚。 宏观层面，美国非农数据即将揭晓，成为压制市场风险偏好的关键变量。该报告不仅因政府停摆推迟发 布，更包含年度基准修正，可能大幅下修此前公布的就业数据。对于国内投资者而言，春节长假临近， 国内休市期间国际市场正常交易，汇率波动与地缘风险叠加，令持仓过节与减仓观望的抉择更添复杂 性。 黄金在5000美元高位徘徊 在经历了上周的大起大落后，国际金价本周在5000美元关键价位横盘震荡。 目前，是美国重磅经济数据的窗口期，美国非 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses significant developments in the gold market, particularly focusing on Russia's central bank increasing its gold reserves and the CME's new margin regulations aimed at curbing speculation in the gold market [1][5]. Group 1: Russia's Central Bank Actions - On February 9, the Central Bank of Russia announced an increase in the gold proportion of its foreign exchange reserves to 38%, up from 33% at the end of 2025, marking a 5 percentage point increase in just two months [3]. - This move is part of Russia's long-term strategy to reduce dependence on the US dollar and mitigate the impact of Western sanctions, as gold serves as a stable asset not tied to any country's credit [3][4]. - Russia's gold reserves have significantly increased from 6% in 2014 to 38% in 2025, reflecting a broader trend among global central banks to enhance gold holdings as a means to optimize foreign exchange reserves and reduce dollar reliance [3][9]. Group 2: CME's Regulatory Changes - The CME announced a 12% increase in margin requirements for non-LBMA certified gold starting February 12, aimed at reducing speculative trading in the gold market, which involves approximately 1.5 billion dollars [5][6]. - LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) certified gold is recognized for its strict standards, while non-LBMA gold lacks these standards and has become a target for speculative trading [5]. - This regulatory adjustment is intended to raise the cost of speculation, thereby cooling down the market and allowing gold prices to align more closely with supply and demand fundamentals [6][8]. Group 3: Market Implications - The dual actions from Russia and the CME signal a clear message for the gold market: short-term volatility may decrease due to reduced speculative activity, while long-term demand for gold is expected to remain strong [8][9]. - The current market data indicates a stabilization in gold prices, with London gold quoted at 5052.03 USD per ounce and gold T+D at 1124.3 CNY per gram, suggesting a return to rational market behavior [8]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and increased gold purchases by central banks globally will likely continue to support gold's strategic importance as a financial asset [9][10].

Group 1 - The gold market is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, supported by geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, monetary policy shifts, and supply-demand gaps, with mainstream institutions generally bullish on gold prices for the year [1][6][12] - China is a major consumer of gold, with significant public investment enthusiasm, and global geopolitical risks are providing continuous premium support for gold prices, which is expected to persist through 2026 [3][5] - Central bank gold purchases have become a structural driver for the gold market, with global net purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2025, marking a historical high, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026 [6][8] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have contributed approximately 12 percentage points to gold price increases this year, and any sudden developments, such as a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations, could lead to short-term price increases of 5%-25% [5][11] - The shift in global monetary policy, particularly anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to significantly lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its investment appeal [9][11] - The supply-demand imbalance in the gold market is projected to worsen by 2026, with demand reaching 5,270 tons and supply at only 4,950 tons, which will drive gold prices higher [12][14] Group 3 - Investment capital is increasingly focused on gold mining and equity control, with a projected supply-demand gap of 320 tons in 2026, reinforcing the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [14][15] - For individual investors, small-scale investments in gold are recommended, with strategies such as phased allocation and strict position control to manage risks while taking advantage of the long-term upward potential [15]

Group 1: Market Overview - International silver prices have rebounded, with the London silver price reaching $83.666 per ounce, an increase of 3.61% [3][15] - The A-share market saw a rise in cyclical sectors, with the building materials sector leading, highlighted by China Jushi's stock price hitting a historical high and a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan [1][13] Group 2: Silver Supply and Demand - The World Silver Association forecasts a continued shortage in global silver supply through 2026, with an expected supply gap of approximately 67 million ounces [5][17] - Despite a projected 1% increase in mine production to 820 million ounces, high prices are expected to reduce global jewelry and silverware demand by about 17% [5][17] Group 3: Company Performance - Hunan Silver has seen a cumulative increase of 105.06% in stock price, with projected net profits for 2025 estimated between 285 million to 385 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 67.88% to 126.78% [6][18] - Zijin Mining has received a net buy of 4.322 billion yuan in financing, with expected net profits for 2025 between 51 billion to 52 billion yuan, indicating a growth of approximately 59% to 62% [11][23] Group 4: Stock Adjustments - Over 80% of silver concept stocks have retraced more than 20% from their year-to-date highs, with some stocks like Silver Yunnan and Shengda Resources experiencing declines exceeding 30% [6][18] - Silver Yunnan has the largest retracement at 35.68%, with projected losses for 2025 between 450 million to 675 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [7][19] Group 5: Valuation and Investment Trends - As of February 11, 11 silver concept stocks have a rolling P/E ratio below 30, with Fuchun Environmental Protection having the lowest at 20.26 [10][22] - 18 silver concept stocks have seen net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan since the beginning of the year, with Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper among those with significant net buy amounts [10][22]

2月10日，国际现货黄金延续反弹态势，盘中震荡上行，先后突破5040、5050美元两大关口，最高触及5063美元，最终小幅回落至5030美元左右震荡，单日 涨幅超0.5%。 可能有人会说，国际金价涨涨跌跌很正常，有什么好稀奇的？ 但大家别忘了，这已经是黄金连续3天反弹，从2月7日的5007美元，一路涨到5063美元，短短3天涨了56美元，这个反弹速度和幅度，可不是随便能遇到的！ 更关键的是，国内金价也跟着联动上涨，咱们身边的金店早就变天了：周大福、周大生黄金价格涨到1560元/克，较昨日涨幅超5%；建设银行投资金条涨到 1144.25元/克，涨幅接近6%，相当于买10克金条，一天就多花500多块钱！ 王爷说财经讯：继续反弹！2月11日，现货黄金一路狂飙、继续反弹，直接向上触及5050美元/盎司，最高更是冲到了5063美元，创下近期以来的峰值！ 黄金前几天还在5000美元下方震荡徘徊，怎么一夜之间就突然暴涨？这波金价异常的反弹，到底是什么在推动？是短期炒作，还是长期趋势？手里有黄金、 想投资黄金的普通人，该跟风入场还是赶紧止盈？ 01、现货黄金向上触及5050美元！ 我们先来看下最近的黄金行情！ 02、黄金反弹 ...

2026.02.10 本月初，因市场担忧美元可能面临更长期的贬值，美元指数曾跌至96附近。引发这些担忧的部分原因是 美国总统特朗普称，美元 "表现出色"，这一言论表明他对美元过去一年的走弱并不特别担忧。特朗普 此前曾提到美元走弱的好处，称这可以降低美国出口成本，让美国企业更容易在全球竞争中占据优势。 自特朗普上任以来，美元指数累计下跌超10%，美联储降息、财政信用恶化、去美元化加速及政治风险 等因素相互交织，推动美元进入趋势性走弱通道，与此同时，外界对美元是否可能失去全球储备货币地 位的质疑始终没有消失。 本文字数：1566，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 本周首个交易日，市场对美元前景的担忧再度浮现。受日本议会选举结果及美债资产减持报道的双重影 响，美元指数承压走低。随着失守97关口，指数回落至2022年2月以来的低位区间。与此同时，贵金属 市场迎来强劲反弹，国际金价日内大涨超2%，重回5000美元关口。 美元低迷 导致美元走弱的因素之一是上周末日本议会选举结果 ——日本首相高市早苗领导的执政党赢得超多数 席位，消除了市场此前面临的一项不确定性。 另一影响因素是媒体援引匿名知情人士的报道称，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent concerns regarding AI's potential to disrupt various industries have led to significant sell-offs in the stock market, particularly affecting software and wealth management stocks, as investors reassess the implications of AI advancements on traditional business models [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The sell-off was triggered by the launch of Altruist's new tool, Hazel, which aims to automate financial advisory services, raising fears about the efficiency of wealth management firms [3][4]. - Major wealth management firms experienced substantial declines, with Raymond James Financial down 8.8%, Charles Schwab down 7.4%, and LPL Financial down 8.3%, marking their largest single-day drops since April [3][4]. - The S&P 500 insurance index fell 3.9% on September 9, the largest single-day drop since October of the previous year, due to similar concerns in the insurance sector [3]. Group 2: AI Investment Trends - Analysts suggest a shift in AI investment focus from "AI enablers," which build the necessary infrastructure, to "AI beneficiaries," which are companies that will benefit from increased productivity and efficiency through AI [5]. - There is a belief that while AI may not completely disrupt certain industries, it will significantly enhance productivity and profitability in sectors that seem unrelated to AI [5]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - The overall market has seen a significant downturn, with the Nasdaq index down 1.8% for the week and the S&P 500 software and services index down nearly 8%, marking its worst weekly performance since March 2020 [6][7]. - The market's volatility is attributed to a combination of factors, including concerns over AI's impact, potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and high valuations in various asset classes [7][8]. - Despite the recent sell-off, some analysts view the market's reaction as an overreaction, suggesting that the fundamentals remain strong and that the current adjustments may set the stage for future growth [7][8].

自从特朗普执政以来，他便一直热衷于发起关税战，尤其是在对中国的政策上表现得尤为突出。对于特朗普这一系列的关税举措，很多人都认为这更多的是 他在缺乏其他有效手段的情况下不得已为之的表现。毕竟，现如今，特朗普几乎只有加征关税这一途径，而中国方面似乎并没有受到太大的影响。 然而，深入分析美国加征关税的背后，我们可以看到更深层次的战略意图。关税战只是表面上的一个幌子，真正的战场早已悄然转移到了另一个方向。加 税，不过是为了为下一步的真正较量增加筹码而已。 ★★ ★ ★ * ★ t PHIN 实际上，无论是特朗普的关税战，还是他推动的效率部门改革，根本目的是为了钱。关税战启动后，虽然美国民众的生活变得更加艰难，但美国政府从中却 收获了可观的财政收入。正如特朗普所言，为了美国至上，牺牲是不可避免的。在他看来，牺牲民众的生活，换取政府更多的资金用于更宏大的计划，是完 全值得的。 从特朗普一系列行动的背后，我们可以看出，关税战并非美国的最终目标。比如，特朗普最近发布的政策，要求对中国船只在美国港口收取额外费用，而使 用美国船只则能享受部分费用豁免，这一政策显然并不单纯为了延续关税问题。此外，美国在俄乌冲突中的表现，要求乌克兰 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call This document is a summary based on the Caixin article [https://a.caixin.com/FA909Zlp](https://a.caixin.com/FA909Zlp). The summary may deviate from the original intent of the text and does not represent Caixin's views or positions. It is recommended to click the link for detailed comparison and verification. Industry Overview - The document discusses the recent volatility in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver prices, which have experienced significant fluctuations in early 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Volatility**: In January 2026, gold and silver prices saw extreme volatility, with gold reaching approximately $5,600 per ounce before dropping to around $4,683 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 40%, the largest in 40 years [10][11][24]. 2. **Speculative Behavior**: The market is characterized by speculative trading, with significant price movements driven by investor sentiment rather than fundamental factors. This has led to a bubble-like state in the gold and silver markets [22][33]. 3. **Impact of External Factors**: Political events, such as actions taken by former President Trump, have been cited as catalysts for price increases in gold, indicating that geopolitical tensions can significantly influence market dynamics [22][39]. 4. **Central Bank Purchases**: Central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, viewing gold as a hedge against currency risk, which has contributed to the upward pressure on gold prices [38][39]. 5. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to adopt long-term holding strategies for gold and to avoid leveraging due to the current market volatility. It is suggested that gold should be treated as a safe-haven asset within a diversified portfolio [30][31][32]. Additional Important Content 1. **Regulatory Responses**: In response to market volatility, exchanges have increased trading costs and adjusted margin requirements to mitigate risks associated with excessive speculation [23][24]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment among investors is mixed, with some looking to capitalize on price dips while others remain cautious due to the high volatility [30][31]. 3. **Supply Chain Concerns**: The document highlights potential supply chain disruptions for silver due to new tariffs and regulations, which could further impact market liquidity and pricing [41]. 4. **Long-term Outlook**: Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for continued central bank purchases [38][39]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the precious metals market, focusing on the dynamics of gold and silver prices, investor behavior, and the broader economic implications.