Group 1: US Economic Policy - The US non-farm employment figure was revised down by 911,000, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2000[1] - The August CPI in the US was 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, also meeting expectations[1] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021[1] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - The European Central Bank held interest rates steady, indicating that inflationary pressures have been effectively contained[1] - Japan's second-quarter GDP was revised up to a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%[1] - Global stock markets and commodities showed positive performance, while US Treasury yields and the dollar index remained stable[1] Group 3: Market Predictions - The GDPNow model predicts a 3.1% annualized growth rate for the US GDP in the third quarter[1] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 11.0% to 6.6%, while the expectation for the policy rate at the end of 2025 slightly decreased from 3.55% to 3.54%[1] - The latest employment and inflation data support the Federal Reserve's potential resumption of rate cuts, boosting expectations for monetary easing[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly. Industrial and agricultural products both weakened. The weak fundamentals dragged down the overall commodity trend in the first half - week, while the market risk appetite improved in the second half - week, driving the commodities to rebound. The demand in the peak season was not strong, and the commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved significantly at the fundamental level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: The commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly this week. Industrial and agricultural products weakened. The weak fundamentals in the first half - week and the improved risk appetite in the second half - week due to Fed rate - cut expectations and A - share rebound affected the commodity trend [3]. - **Overseas**: - In August, US inflation met market expectations. The CPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to rising prices of food, energy, and housing. A 25BP rate cut in September was the benchmark scenario, and the inflation upside risk was controllable. The weak employment market might be the Fed's focus [3]. - In the first week of September, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the US reached 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market [3]. - The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish". The market's expectation of another ECB rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. In the short - term, the ECB was likely to stay put, while in the long - term, its policy stance was uncertain [3]. - **Domestic**: - In August, the new social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, less than the same period last year but slightly higher than expected. New loans were 590 billion yuan, less than last year and in line with expectations. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might become a drag. The rebound of resident and enterprise credit demand was crucial [3]. - In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken marginally, but there were still supporting factors such as global economic recovery and strong exports to Africa [3]. - **Commodity View**: With the peak demand season not living up to expectations, commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved at the fundamental level [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Inflation and Employment**: In August, US CPI increased year - on - year to 2.9%. The seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the first week of September increased significantly, and the labor market was cooling [3][7][10]. - **ECB Policy**: The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish", and the market's expectation of another rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. The future policy stance was uncertain depending on inflation and economic recovery [3][13]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data**: In August, new social financing and loans were lower than the same period last year. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might affect future performance. The rebound of credit demand was key [3][17]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken, but there were supporting factors [3][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On September 5, the PTA operating rate was 78.28%, and the POY operating rate was 87.36%. In August and September, the operating rates of some industries showed certain changes [27][34]. - **Automobile Data**: In August and September, the sales of automobiles showed growth. For example, in August, the sales were 201.9 (units not specified), a 5.9% increase [34]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: On September 12, the price changes of some agricultural products were 0.75% and 0.14%, etc. [35].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing stagnation due to significant layoffs in manufacturing, wholesale retail, and energy sectors, primarily attributed to tariffs imposed by President Trump, which have increased costs and hindered expansion plans [1][2] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated that the "goods-producing industries" were the main contributors to job declines, with only 22,000 jobs added in the month, and manufacturing alone losing 12,000 jobs [2] - Companies like John Deere reported substantial financial losses due to tariffs, with an estimated $300 million loss by 2025, leading to layoffs and a 26% year-over-year decline in net profit [2] Group 2 - There is a divide between the government and businesses regarding tariffs, with some companies claiming tariffs have prompted increased capital spending and future hiring, while others express uncertainty and a hiring freeze due to unpredictable policy changes [3] - The oil industry is facing dual pressures from tariffs and low oil prices, with significant layoffs occurring, including Chevron and ConocoPhillips planning to cut thousands of jobs [4][5] - Despite challenges, some executives remain optimistic that tariffs will ultimately benefit domestic industries, although they are also implementing layoffs and automation to maintain competitiveness [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing stagnation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, indicating a slowdown in hiring due to trade tensions [1] - Manufacturing, wholesale retail, and energy sectors are particularly affected, with significant job losses reported [2] - Companies like John Deere have reported substantial financial losses due to tariffs, with a projected loss of $300 million by 2025, leading to layoffs [2] Group 2 - Uncertainty from fluctuating policies is causing companies to adopt a cautious approach, often leading to hiring freezes [3] - Executives from various sectors express that without stable policies and predictable costs, recruitment and expansion plans are on hold [3] - The Trump administration maintains that tariffs will ultimately boost employment by encouraging businesses to relocate operations back to the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Some companies report benefits from tariffs, claiming they help their business, while others highlight the negative impact on hiring and growth [4] - Economic experts argue that the manufacturing sector's struggles are due to demand slowdown and unresolved policy shifts rather than labor supply issues [4]

与此同时，美元在经历了自1973年以来最大的上半年跌幅后，反弹乏力，部分原因正是市场对美联储将 深度降息的预期。 本周FOMC利率决议，市场确信美联储至少降息25个基点，但这已经无法满足激进预期，投资者已经为 延续至2026年的一系列降息进行了定价。 目前金融市场普遍倾向于认为，就业形势的担忧将在本周利率决议中占据主导地位，美联储将传达鸽派 基调。市场已消化了美联储为避免经济衰退而将在2026年前持续降息的预期，这种乐观情绪推动美债收 益率跌至数月低位，美股屡创新高。 在债券市场，基准10年期美债收益率接近4月以来最低水平，标普500指数逼近历史高位，纳斯达克100 指数刚刚录得一年多来最长连涨纪录。 然而，由于通胀水平仍高于目标，关税对价格的影响仍在发酵，分析认为，美联储主席鲍威尔及其他官 员可能发出信号，暗示投资者过于激进，从而引发资产价格的重新定价。鲍威尔讲话和美联储官员利率 预测"点阵图"是本次决议的关注重点。 25基点几成定局，50基点存在小概率可能 市场对本周三美联储降息25基点的预期已接近100%确定性。Brandywine Global Investment Management 债券投资组合 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are focused on whether Federal Reserve officials will dismiss market expectations of an extended interest rate cut cycle into next year, with a strong bet on a 25 basis point cut this week and a potential continuation of cuts until 2026 to mitigate recession risks [1][4]. Market Reactions - The anticipation of rate cuts has driven U.S. Treasury yields to multi-month lows, boosted the stock market to historical highs, and exerted pressure on the U.S. dollar [1][4]. - The S&P 500 index is nearing historical highs, while the Nasdaq 100 index recently achieved a new record after a prolonged rally [4]. Bond Market Insights - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen to its lowest level since April, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards bonds [4]. - Jack McIntyre from Brandywine Global Investment Management has increased his bond holdings, particularly in 30-year Treasuries, anticipating that signs of a weakening job market may prompt investors to believe that the Fed's easing timing is overdue [4]. Volatility Expectations - Some stock traders are hedging against potential volatility, as the expectation of a 25 basis point cut is already reflected in current stock prices, with options traders predicting about a 1% two-way movement in the S&P 500 index [7]. - Gareth Ryan from IUR Capital emphasizes the importance of the Fed's dot plot in determining market reactions, suggesting that ambiguity regarding future rate cuts could lead to greater market volatility [7]. Political Pressures - Investors are aware of the pressures the Fed faces, including criticism from former President Trump regarding the pace of rate cuts, and the potential influence of Trump's economic advisor Stephen Moore on the upcoming policy decision [8]. - The voting composition of the Fed during the upcoming meeting will be scrutinized for clues, with any dissenting votes against a 25 basis point cut seen as a hawkish signal [8].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%, marking the largest monthly increase since February [1] - Year-on-year, the CPI increased by 2.9%, aligning with expectations but up 0.2 percentage points from July [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with previous months and market expectations [3] Group 2 - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, while energy prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month and slightly by 0.2% year-on-year [3] - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, grew by 0.4% month-on-month, the largest increase this year, and 3.6% year-on-year [3] Group 3 - The labor market in the U.S. shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, significantly above the expected 235,000, reaching the highest level since October 2021 [5] - This increase in jobless claims may indicate rising layoffs, suggesting a potential turning point in the employment market [5] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that if inflation approaches the 2% target in the coming months, monetary policy should be more flexible in response to potential rapid deterioration in the labor market [5] Group 4 - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have intensified, with traders anticipating a greater than 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [7] - There is a consensus that current interest rates are still restrictive to the economy, prompting the Fed to consider a more accommodative stance in light of weakening employment data and dual inflation risks [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US inflation pressure persists, and the US dollar is expected to continue its downward trend. The market is waiting for the outcome of the Fed's September interest rate meeting. If the Fed takes a hawkish stance, the market may face a correction. The ECB kept its policy unchanged in September and entered a data - dependent wait - and - see phase [1][2] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most global stock markets rose, and most bond yields increased. The yield of US Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 4.06%. The US dollar index dropped 0.22% to 97.55, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 1.6% to $3643 per ounce, the VIX index fell to 14.7, the spot commodity index fluctuated, and Brent crude oil rose 3.8% to $67.6 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets rose. The S&P 500 in the US rose 1.59%, the Shanghai Composite Index in China rose 1.52%, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose 3.82%, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 4.07%. The US inflation has stickiness, and the employment market is weakening. The market is waiting for the Fed's September interest rate meeting. If the Fed is hawkish, the market may correct. China's August import and export data were below expectations, and inflation recovery is slow [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields increased, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 4.06%. The market's concern about inflation eased after the US August PPI was lower than expected, but the rebound of CPI limited the downward space of US Treasury bond yields. Eurozone government bond yields mostly increased, and emerging - market bond yields showed mixed trends. China's 10 - year government bond yield rose to 1.8%, and the bond market remained under pressure [14][18][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.22% to 97.55, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.02%, the euro rose 0.14%, the pound rose 0.34%, the Swiss franc rose 0.18%, while the yen fell 0.17%, and the Canadian dollar and the Korean won depreciated. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, rand, real, Thai baht, and peso appreciated by more than 1% [24][25][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 1.6% to $3643 per ounce, reaching a new high. However, it may face short - term correction risks. Brent crude oil rose 3.8% to $67.6 per barrel, but its long - term upward trend may not be sustainable. The spot commodity index fluctuated [28][29][30] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The US inflation met expectations. The CPI rebounded as expected, and the PPI was lower than expected. Inflation may face further upward pressure in the short term, and the labor market may be weaker than it seems [31][33] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Next week, there will be interest rate meetings of the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, as well as the release of important economic data such as China's August social retail and industrial growth, and the US August retail sales [35]

Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference after the most recent meeting in July. As the next meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee approaches, investors, economists, and policymakers are trying to predict how the central bankers will react to a weakening labor market and stubborn unemployment. When is the next Fed meeting? The next meeting of the FOMC will take place over Sept. 16 and 17. During this meeting, the members will ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next week, with debates intensifying over whether the reduction will be 25 or 50 basis points, influenced by economic data and political pressures [2][6]. Group 1: Economic Data and Predictions - Recent economic data, including a surprising drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and a significant downward revision of non-farm employment figures, suggest a weakening labor market, paving the way for a potential 50 basis point rate cut [5][8]. - Various financial institutions have differing predictions for the rate cut, with Standard Chartered predicting 50 basis points, while others like Deutsche Bank and Barclays expect 25 basis points [7][10]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut is currently at 90%, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 10% according to CME FedWatch [11]. Group 2: Political Influences - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces political pressure, particularly from the Trump administration, which may influence the decision to implement a larger rate cut as a show of loyalty [15][16]. - Powell's recent shift towards a more dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting has raised expectations for a more aggressive rate cut, as he expressed concern over the labor market [13][14]. Group 3: Historical Context and Implications - Historical data indicates that every time the Fed has initiated a rate cut of 50 basis points since 1987, it has been followed by an economic recession [4][17]. - Some analysts warn that a 50 basis point cut could send a negative signal to the markets, suggesting severe economic distress, while others argue it could be seen as a proactive measure to support employment growth [18][19]. - The Fed's past rate cut cycles show that rate reductions do not always correlate with stock market gains, as evidenced by four instances of market declines during previous cut cycles [27][28].