交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年5月PVC产量为201.9692万吨，环比增加3.31%；本周样本企业 产能利用率为78.09%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.5695万吨，环比增加0.68%, 乙烯法企业产量11.349万吨，环比减少4.54%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减 少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.78%，环比减少1.53个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材 开工率为35%，环比减少1.25个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为38.56%，环比减 少1.57个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年7月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒6月18日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示，2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨，消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月，全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨，供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月，全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22360，基差+130；偏多。 3、库存：7月2日LME锌库存较上日减少1475吨至113425吨，7月2日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少200吨至6624吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Spiral Steel and Hot - Rolled Steel Morning Report (2025 - 7 - 3) [1] - Author: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: Phone 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - **For Threaded Steel (Rebar)**: Consider a volatile and slightly bullish approach. Demand is seasonally rising, inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, but traders' purchasing willingness is still weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. The basis is positive, inventory is decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line rising, but the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. The real - estate market remains weak, future demand may cool down, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market [2]. - **For Hot - Rolled Coil**: Consider a volatile and slightly bullish approach. Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may come into play. The basis is positive, inventory is decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line rising, but the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Market supply and demand are weakening, exports are blocked, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market [6]. Group 4: Factors Affecting the Market For Threaded Steel - **Likely Positive Factors**: Low production and inventory levels, and the spot price is at a premium [3] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downstream real - estate industry is in a continuous downward cycle, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [3] For Hot - Rolled Coil - **Likely Positive Factors**: Fair demand, and the spot price is at a premium [8] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [9] Group 5: Market Data Price Data - **Threaded Steel Spot Price**: 3130 yuan, basis 65 [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot Price**: 3200 yuan, basis 9 [6] - **Other Prices**: Including prices of rebar in Southeast Asia, hot - rolled coil in Southeast Asia, Tangshan billet, domestic scrap steel, etc. [16][19][23] Inventory Data - **Threaded Steel Inventory**: 363.4 million tons in 35 major cities nationwide, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: 262.94 million tons in 33 major cities nationwide, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [6] Production and Consumption Data - **Production**: Data on weekly production of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil are presented [35][38] - **Consumption**: Data on apparent consumption, apparent consumption year - on - year, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil are provided [66][71][69] Other Related Data - Construction material trading volume, real - estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, cement price, etc. [77][80][84]

供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年5月PVC产量为201.9692万吨，环比增加3.31%；本周样本企业 产能利用率为78.09%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.5695万吨，环比增加0.68%, 乙烯法企业产量11.349万吨，环比减少4.54%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减 少，预计排产少量增加。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.78%，环比减少1.53个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材 开工率为35%，环比减少1.25个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为38.56%，环比减 少1.57个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

2025-07-02锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2509： 2 1.基本面：原料端，周内南非锰矿发运减少消息扰动影响，矿商挺价情绪强烈，部分品种锰矿价格小幅上涨。供应端，受 成本支撑增强影响，硅锰现货价格小幅上涨，硅锰厂低价出货心理偏弱。需求端，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，对市场多持 观望心态；中性。 2.基差：现货价5500元/吨，09合约基差-124元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存186100吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.15天。偏多。 4.盘面：MA20向上，09合约期价收于MA20上方。偏多。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多增。偏多。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2509：5550-5750震荡运行。 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-2 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1165元/吨，基差为25元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存176.69万吨，较前一周增加2.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年5月PVC产量为201.9692万吨，环比增加3.31%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为78.09%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.5695万吨，环比增 加0.68%,乙烯法企业产量11.349万吨，环比减少4.54%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计 检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.78%，环比减少1.53个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下 游型材开工率为35%，环比减少1.25个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 38.56%，环比减少1.57个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For methanol, the high imports are starting to materialize, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the United States, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [2]. - For plastics, the overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD is weakening. In June, the domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [7]. - For PP, the upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around -500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around -1000. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly, and the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure under the background of over - capacity [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The mid - upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors. The PVC comprehensive profit is -500, and the static inventory is decreasing from a high level [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2735 to 2820, with a daily increase of 60 on the 27th. The import profit increased from 210 to 267, and the futures MTO profit increased from -1350 to -1176 [2]. - **Market Situation**: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has started, and the futures price is undervalued. Iran has reduced its production, non - Iranian supply has increased, and the domestic supply has also increased. The market is in a bearish factor realization period [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850 on the 27th. The import profit remained at -77, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 81 to 70 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around -400 with no further increase. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD is weakening. In June, the domestic linear production is increasing [7]. PP - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6890 to 6700, and the export profit remained at -14. The two - oil inventory decreased from 81 to 70 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around -500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around -1000, and the supply in June is expected to increase slightly [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price increased from 4850 to 4850 (with a 50 increase on the 25th). The export profit remained at 626, and the basis (high - end delivery product) increased from -90 to -80 [10][11]. - **Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened, the downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices, and the mid - upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors. The PVC comprehensive profit is -500, and the static inventory is decreasing from a high level [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年6月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为-441.76元/吨，环比增加13.60%，周度山东地炼延迟焦化利 润为1035.1614元/吨，环比增加29.22%，沥青加工亏损增加，沥青与延迟焦化利润差增加；原 油走弱，预计短期内支撑走弱。 炼厂近期排产有所增产，提升供应压力。旺季刺激需求恢复整体需求不及预期且低迷；库存持 6、预期: 续去库；原油走弱，成本支撑短期内有所走弱；预计盘面短期内窄幅震荡，沥青2509:在3526- 3596区间震荡。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年6月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年5月PVC产量为201.9692万吨，环比增加3.31%；本周样本企业产能利用 率为78.62%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.337万吨，环比减少1.63%,乙烯法企业产量 11.889万吨，环比增加1.68%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.31%，环比减少1.48个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.25%，环比减少1.3个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.13%，环比减少2.81个百分 点，低于历史平均水平 ...