金十数据5月3日讯，欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，欧洲央行有信心将通胀率恢复到2%的目标水平。虽 然最新的预测已预见到今年年底（通胀）的降幅将接近这一水平，但欧元走强、大宗商品价格下跌和经 济不确定性将进一步抑制物价。他表示，这将是决定是否继续降息的 "决定性因素"。金多斯说："我们 乐观地认为，我们将持续实现通胀目标。"金多斯还表示："不确定性对经济总是不利的。我们在3月份 的预测中已经指出了这些下行风险。这些风险现在正在成为现实。我们的基准情景继续假设经济增长非 常低，但是为正——明显低于潜在增长。但我不认为欧元区会陷入衰退。我们正密切关注受工资影响很 大的服务业通胀。这里的工资增长也在放缓。此外，我们不追求汇率目标，但我们正在密切关注汇率。 这是评估物价稳定风险的重要经济指标。关键是保持低汇率波动。"金多斯认为，央行的独立性至关重 要。这是信誉的关键，因此也是对抗通胀的关键。 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧洲央行可以对通胀持乐观态度 ...

日本财务省大臣加藤胜信：汇率应由市场决定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that exchange rates should fluctuate based on economic fundamentals and emphasized that there is no need for hasty interest rate hikes when underlying inflation is stagnant [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's stance on exchange rates reflects a focus on economic fundamentals rather than speculative movements [1] - Ueda's comments suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy, indicating that the central bank will not rush into raising interest rates without clear signs of inflationary pressure [1] - The emphasis on stable economic conditions highlights the Bank of Japan's commitment to maintaining a balanced approach in its monetary policy [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, with a projected GDP growth target of 8% for 2025, supported by increased public investment and domestic consumption [4][27]. Core Insights - Vietnam's GDP growth accelerated to 6.9% in Q1 2025, up from 5.9% in Q1 2024, driven by increases in domestic consumption and investment [2][11]. - Retail sales saw a significant increase of 10.8% year-on-year in March 2025, marking the highest monthly growth in nearly two years, attributed to rising wages and improved purchasing power [20][21]. - Industrial production improved with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% in March 2025, compared to 4.8% in March 2024, driven by sectors such as apparel, electronics, and machinery [13][31]. - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) commitments decreased by 9.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid global trade uncertainties, although FDI disbursements remained resilient [17][18]. Economic Performance - The average monthly income in the first three months of 2025 rose by 9.5% compared to the same period in 2024, leading to a real wage growth of 6% [20]. - The inflation rate in March 2025 increased to 3.1%, driven by rising food and housing prices, but remained below the State Bank of Vietnam's target of 4.5-5% for 2025 [22][23]. - The trade surplus decreased to $3.2 billion in Q1 2025, down from $7.7 billion in Q1 2024, due to a slowdown in export growth to 10.6% from 16.8% [11][12]. Fiscal Overview - Fiscal revenue in the first quarter of 2025 reached 36.7% of the annual budget, up from 31.7% in the same period of 2024, primarily due to increased VAT and corporate income tax collections [3][27]. - Public investment disbursement rates slowed to 9.5% of the annual plan by the end of March 2025, compared to 12.3% in the previous year, posing challenges for achieving the GDP growth target [27].

马来西亚林吉特兑美元 汇率升至11月以来最高水平。 ...

马来西亚林吉特兑美元汇率升至去年11月以来最高水平。 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者宏观团队 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 4 . 1 9 - 4 . 2 6 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解 热点思考 1、 美元："巴别塔"的倒塌？——"汇率"观察双周报系列之一 2、 美国经济：关税冲击与"滞胀"踪迹——关税"压力测试"系列之三 3、 财政"续力"正当时 4、 "关税冲击"的行业脉络？ 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第28期 《服务消费"画像"》 2、"洞见"系列会议第56期 《美元：" 巴别塔 "倒塌？"汇率"观察双周报系列之一》 3、"洞见"系列会议第57期 《美国经济：关税冲击与"滞涨"踪迹——关税"压力测试"系列之三》 深度专题 1 坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解 深度研究 2025.4.25 《坚定不移办好自己的事——4月政治局会议精神学习理解》 "坚定不移办好自己的事"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策" 1、 海外高频 | 特朗普关税态度软化，3月美国零售反弹 2、 政策跟踪 | ...

智通财经4月24日电，日本财务大臣加藤胜信表示，汇率应该由市场决定，汇率过度波动将对经济带来 负面影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Peter Schiff's commentary suggests that the perceived strength of American consumers is an illusion created by currency exchange rates, and he warns that this "American dream" may soon come to an end [1][6][16] Group 1: Consumer Power - Schiff argues that while American consumers are often seen as the backbone of global consumption, the reality is that their purchasing power is heavily influenced by the dollar's strength [3][4] - He highlights that if the Chinese yuan were to double in value, the income of Chinese consumers would significantly increase, challenging the notion of American consumer supremacy [4][16] - The comparison with European consumers shows that if the euro appreciates, their purchasing power would also rise, further questioning the sustainability of the dollar's dominance [4][8] Group 2: Economic Implications - Schiff's statements imply that the current economic model, which relies on the dollar as the world's reserve currency, is fragile and could lead to a significant shift in global economic power [9][11] - He suggests that if global markets begin to abandon the dollar, American consumers could face a drastic reduction in their purchasing power, making it difficult for them to afford even basic goods [9][11] - The commentary indicates that countries like China and those in Europe may be better positioned for future economic stability due to their manufacturing capabilities and population advantages [16][18] Group 3: Future Outlook - Schiff's perspective serves as a warning that the "golden age" of American consumers may be ending, and a new chapter in global consumption dynamics could be emerging [16][17] - The potential for a shift in economic power dynamics is emphasized, suggesting that the world may soon see a rebalancing of consumer markets [11][16] - The commentary concludes with the notion that many may not recognize the changing landscape of global consumption, indicating a significant transformation is underway [17][18]

"人民币汇率破7"、"日元贬值"、"美元暴跌"…. 这都是最近两年我们常看到的一些新闻。可是对于汇率，你真的了解吗？汇率的变化会受哪些因素影响？其中又反映了哪些更深层次的经济问题呢？ 大家好，我是老丁 一、汇率 汇率，指的是两种货币之间兑换的比率，也可视作一个国家的货币对另一种货币的价值。 当你看到"1美元=7.3人民币"的时候，就意味着你要花7块3人民币，才能换到1美元。这就是人民币兑美元的汇率。在零几年的时候，8块人民币兑换1美 元，后来人民币一路升值，在2014年的时候最高到过6元人民币兑换1美元（如图）。 那时候媒体都说人民币升值不好，会打击出口。这些年人民币又贬值到7.3人民币兑换1美元的时候，媒体又说贬值不好，会资金外流，所以，到底哪一种 才是相对好的呢？ 因为在那个阶段，中国经济的构成是以出口为主要动力。促进商品出口，就是当时拉动经济促进民营企业最好的方式，而汇率升值，恰恰是会打压出口 的，所以那时候的中国并没有那么喜欢货币升值。而到了今天，中国已经变成一个以内需为经济主导的地区，而且现在的中国经济其实更需要汇率稳定。 所以今天的人民币如果出现贬值，也同样不被喜欢。 二、汇率变化因为汇率变化的直 ...