以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒人养基 . 雪球21年度十大新锐用户、22年度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将 经营产生的余钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：懒人养基 来源：雪球 牛市来了 ， " 抓住一切难得机会 " 几乎成了共识 ， 仿佛只要身处其中 ， 财富便能唾手可得 。 于是 ， 上涨时舍不得卖 ， 回调时又觉得 " 此时卖出不划算 " ， 一拖再拖 。 直到某天打开账户 ， 发现盈利已蒸发大半 ， 才惊觉一轮轰轰烈烈的大牛市 ， 自己竟只是坐了一趟令人心潮澎湃的过山车 ， 徒留一声叹息 。 01 越是上涨 ， 投资者越容易陷入 " 错失恐惧 " 随着市场热度不断升温 ， 指数加速上扬 ， 个股轮番涨停 ， 投资者沉浸在一片乐观之中 。 这时 ， " 牛市要抓住一切难得机会 " 的观点极易深 入人心 ， 投资者害怕卖出后错过后续更大的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of adopting a "robust" investment strategy to navigate through market fluctuations, particularly in a bull market, to ensure long-term success and avoid catastrophic losses [2][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The concept of "robustness" in investment, as proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, suggests that a portfolio should withstand various market scenarios, whether bullish or bearish, to avoid the pitfalls of speculative strategies like "Russian roulette" [2][6]. - Investors who only focus on upward market movements without considering potential downturns are at risk of significant losses, akin to playing a dangerous game of chance [3][4]. - Historical examples illustrate that even successful investors can face devastating losses if they do not maintain a robust investment approach, highlighting the need for caution and strategic planning [5][7]. Group 2: Psychological Aspects of Investing - The article discusses the psychological challenges investors face, particularly the temptation to follow the crowd during bullish trends, which can lead to irrational decision-making [6][8]. - It advocates for emotional resilience, encouraging investors to accept that others may achieve higher returns without feeling pressured to replicate their strategies [6][8]. - The narrative of Odysseus and the sirens serves as a metaphor for the importance of staying committed to a robust strategy and avoiding distractions that could lead to financial ruin [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current bull market in A-shares is strong, with sectors like new energy and consumer goods driving the market despite a decline in chip stocks [1][14] - The state-owned investment team (referred to as "国家队") has made limited purchases in the liquor ETF, totaling only 3 billion, indicating that their involvement may not be as significant as perceived [3][6] - The state-owned investment team has historically been a major buyer during market downturns, with clear signals of buying activity in 2023 and 2024, including public announcements and bond issuances for financing [9][12] Group 2 - The ETF in question has shown a pattern of net buying during significant market drops, with the state-owned investment team increasing its holdings from 2.4 billion to 62 billion shares from 2023 to mid-2025 [6][9] - In 2024, the state-owned investment team issued seven bonds for financing, indicating a strategy to increase their market presence [8] - However, after reaching 3,500 points, there has been a noticeable lack of buying signals from the state-owned investment team, suggesting that the recent market rally is driven by other market forces rather than state intervention [12][14]

Group 1 - The current bull market is just beginning, as indicated by the market capitalization to GDP ratio, which has returned to long-term average levels and is far from the peaks seen in 2007 and 2015 [1][11][14] - The high margin trading balance suggests a strong market risk appetite, typically leading the market by 1-3 months, indicating a high likelihood of continued market gains in the near term [2][16][18] - A-shares are expected to outperform Hong Kong stocks, with a potential increase of 10% to reach 4200 points [3][21][22] Group 2 - The market has been suppressed for a long time, and its eventual surge could be significant [4][22] - However, rapid gains may attract regulatory intervention [5][23] - The liquidity in the market remains abundant, supporting the potential for continued upward trends [25][26] Group 3 - Retail investors have not fully entered the market yet, with current account openings at only one-third of last year's levels, indicating room for growth in participation [28][31] - The current market rise is primarily driven by institutional investors, particularly hedge funds, which contribute significantly to trading volume [32][34] - Index investing is benefiting leading companies, as their weight in indices increases with inflows, similar to trends observed in the U.S. market [38][42] Group 4 - Any market corrections are expected to be brief and shallow due to the lack of retail investor participation and the presence of significant liquidity [44] - Sectors such as insurance and new technologies are highlighted as potential areas for investment, benefiting from improving market conditions [44]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting the rapid style switching in the market and the potential for A-shares to catch up with Hong Kong stocks in terms of returns [11][12][40]. Market Performance - The overall market showed a slight increase, remaining at 4.3 stars, close to 4.2 stars [1]. - Large, medium, and small-cap stocks all experienced gains, with large-cap stocks rising slightly more [2]. - Both growth and value styles saw increases [3]. - There was significant divergence in performance among different stocks [4]. - The STAR Market 50 index declined, while the ChiNext index saw substantial gains [5]. - Recently lagging sectors like consumer stocks experienced significant rebounds [6]. - Hong Kong stocks also rose overall, with small-cap and dividend stocks leading the gains [7]. Market Trends - The speed of style switching in the market has been very rapid, occurring almost daily [8]. - Each category of undervalued stocks tends to have its performance phase [9]. - Investors are advised to remain patient and avoid chasing trends or frequent trading [10]. A-shares vs. Hong Kong Stocks - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have historically similar long-term returns, but their phases of increase and decrease differ [11]. - Recently, A-shares have begun to catch up after previously lagging behind Hong Kong stocks [12]. - Both markets were at low valuation levels around September last year, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [13][14]. - The decline in USD interest rates has increased global market liquidity, benefiting non-USD assets [15]. Characteristics of Bull Markets - The bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks share several characteristics: - Rarely slow bull markets, mostly characterized by rapid increases [17]. - Predominantly structural bull markets, with growth style stocks leading the way [20][21]. - Bull markets often experience intermittent pullbacks, typically following a pattern of "advance three, retreat one" [23]. Recent Performance Analysis - In the past year, A-shares experienced two major upward waves, one in late September last year and another in July-August this year [25]. - After a significant rise at the end of September last year, A-shares remained in a sideways trend for nearly half a year before gradually rising after June this year [25][26]. - Hong Kong stocks exhibited a similar pattern but had an additional upward phase [27]. - As of August 28 this year, the Hang Seng Index had risen 24%, while the CSI 300 Index for A-shares had increased by 13% [29]. - Since the low point in September last year, the Hang Seng Index has surged by 69%, compared to a 43% increase for the CSI 300 Index [30]. Valuation Insights - The article provides a summary of the valuation of various Hong Kong stock indices, indicating that most indices have moved out of undervaluation, with only a few value styles remaining undervalued [34]. - The article also mentions that the valuation table for Hong Kong indices is updated daily in a mini-program for easy access [36]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for A-shares to align more closely with the performance of Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a favorable outlook for investors who remain patient and strategic in their approach [40].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Chinese economy is experiencing a recovery, with a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, supported by policy measures and inherent resilience, which brings positive expectations for the human resources service industry [1] - The employment market is showing signs of recovery but remains differentiated, with a notable talent gap in high-end sectors like AI and semiconductors, creating opportunities for the company to focus on the mid-to-high-end talent market [2][3] - The company is positioned uniquely in the market due to its focus on mid-to-high-end recruitment and AI technology, making it a target for market funds in the current bull market [3] Group 2 - The company's financial report for the first half of 2025 shows multiple highlights, including an increase in registered enterprise users to 1.43 million, a 4.8% year-on-year growth, and a slight decrease in paid enterprise clients by 0.9% [5] - The AI product matrix has been continuously improved, with over 70% of paid clients using AI recruitment products, and the recommendation rate for potential candidates has significantly increased to 64% [6] - The company is making forward-looking investments in AI technology and plans to enhance its recruitment assistant products, aiming to provide efficient and cost-effective smart recruitment services [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current bull market aiming for the highest point since 2008, targeting 5178 points, surpassing the previous high of 3731 points [1] - It emphasizes the collection and organization of various warning indicators related to the bull market peak [1] - The article provides insights on how to successfully exit from convertible bonds during a bull market [1] Group 2 - The platform mentioned, Jisilu, focuses on data-driven investment and financial services, specializing in new stocks, convertible bonds, bonds, and closed-end funds [2] - The community's philosophy is to ensure capital safety while achieving steady asset growth [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current bullish sentiment in the market and the anxiety among investors regarding their equity positions [4][5] - It emphasizes that while it is normal to feel anxious in a rapidly rising market, there is no need for excessive worry as long-term performance is challenging to outperform [5][7] - The article presents data showing that from 2010 to now, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 61.38%, while actively managed equity funds have returned 102.04%, indicating that consistent outperformance is difficult [5][7] Group 2 - The article suggests that investors should gradually increase their risk appetite rather than making drastic changes to their portfolios [10][12] - It recommends optimizing bond fund holdings by transitioning from pure bond funds to those with some equity exposure, thereby increasing risk exposure incrementally [13] - The article also highlights the importance of adjusting dividend stock holdings to include funds with growth attributes, as traditional dividend strategies may lag in a bullish market [15][16] Group 3 - For broad index investments, the article advises switching from the Shanghai Index or CSI 300 to the more balanced and growth-oriented CSI A500 [19] - It suggests that investors holding growth-oriented ETFs should consider upgrading to indices that have stronger performance potential in a bull market [20] - The article emphasizes that any adjustments should be made cautiously to avoid significant risks if the market does not perform as expected [21] Group 4 - The article discusses the optimization of actively managed funds, recommending a shift from deep value funds to balanced value and then to growth-oriented funds as market conditions improve [22] - It suggests rotating between fund managers based on performance, favoring those who have shown better results in the current market environment [23] - The overall message is to maintain a calm approach to investing, making small adjustments to align with the current market sentiment while managing risk effectively [25]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a strong rebound, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% led by "Ning Wang" [1][2][6] - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index gained nearly 8%, surpassing 3800 points, marking a significant milestone [2][11] - The trading volume in the two markets decreased to 2.8 trillion yuan, with sectors like new energy, insurance, and liquor leading the gains, while semiconductors and communications saw corrections [4][5] Group 2 - The recent surge in the new energy sector was attributed to the approval of a new standard for solid-state batteries, which is expected to promote healthy industry development [8][9] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions indicate a strong upward trend, but caution against potential short-term volatility due to speculative trading [5][10] - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware and applications, is expected to remain a key focus for investors moving forward [10][11] Group 3 - Looking ahead to September, analysts predict that the overall market performance may be weaker compared to August, with a shift in leading sectors [13][15] - The potential for a recovery in manufacturing sectors is anticipated following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with opportunities in industrial metals and machinery [15] - The upcoming product launches from major tech companies in September are expected to influence market dynamics, particularly in consumer electronics [16][18][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that incremental capital is a direct driving force behind the rise of stocks and the stock market, highlighting the importance of understanding where this capital is flowing [3]. - The previous article discussed how high-net-worth individuals are channeling funds into the stock market through wealth management insurance and private equity, indicating a trend in capital movement [3]. - This article aims to explore two additional channels through which incremental capital is entering the stock market, suggesting a broader analysis of capital flows [3].