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彭博市场快评之关税专题第二期:展望美国经济,聚焦中国股票与消费市场
彭博Bloomberg· 2025-04-18 05:04
美国关税政策在全球范围内掀起一波又一波风暴,使宏观经济格局巨变,各类资产亟需破局之道。 彭博中国市场快评系列活动推出 关税专题网络研讨会 (共两期),彭博首席经济学家及业内专家 将围绕关税相关热点议题,向大家分享最新研究成果与洞见,助您在复杂多变的宏观环境中保持高 瞻视角,破局远航! 关税系列主题第二期 展望美国经济,聚焦中国股票与消费市场 活动时间 第一期: (已结束) 2025年4月17日(星期四)| 16:30 - 17:15 第二期: 2025年4月24日(星期四)| 16:30 - 17:15 主要议题 主讲嘉宾 Anna Wong 彭博美国首席经济学家 美国宏观经济展望 中美不确定性与A股市场 悬而未决的关税对中国消费市场的影响 Marvin Chen 彭博行业研究资深股票策略师 林爱娜 彭博行业研究亚太地区主管,亚太消费及科技行业高级分析师 扫码立即报名 * 报名需要时间审核,敬请耐心等待。审核通过将在微信收到报名成功提醒,活动开始前将会收到具体参会提醒,请注意查收! * 彭博Bloomberg保留活动的最终解释权。 ...
明晚!油价或现年内最大降幅
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-04-16 14:00
新一轮成品油调价窗口将在4月17日24时开启。记者注意到,由于国际油价在近期出现断崖式下跌,国 内成品油价或出现年内最大的下调幅度。 据卓创资讯(301299)监测,本周期(4月2日24时至4月17日24时)内,国际油价整体呈现先跌后涨的走 势。其中,前期原油市场出现了近三年来的单日最大跌幅,国内参考的原油变化率由正转负并在负值内 不断加深。预计4月17日24时国内成品油零售限价或下调,此次下调幅度或为年内最大。 金联创成品油分析师毕明欣表示,本轮计价周期内,利空消息占据市场主导位置,国际油价走势震荡下 行。具体来看,美国所谓的"对等关税"增加了全球经济衰退的可能性,投资者担心美国关税政策可能导 致企业价格上涨,从而使美国经济活动放缓,最终损害石油需求。 此外,4月3日,石油输出国组织(欧佩克)发表声明说,8个欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国("欧佩克+")决定自 今年5月起日均增产41.1万桶——这一增产量远高于市场预期。此次增产包含原定于5月增加的产量以及 额外两个月的增产量。同时,"欧佩克+"将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏,以维护石油市场稳定。 "欧佩克+"2023年11月宣布日均220万桶的自愿减产措施,此后减 ...
中文直播 | 美国关税政策对中美科技产业链的影响
Canalys· 2025-04-16 02:13
今天!4月16日(周三),下午2点。 要点 请扫 描下方 二 维码或点击阅读原文观 看, 也可通过复制此链接进入直播: https://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/20732/641120 Johnny Xie, Canalys 亚太区总监 Omdia Omdia隶属于Informa TechTarget, Inc. (纳斯达克代码: TTGT),是一家专注于技术研究与咨询的机构。 通过深刻的科技市场洞察力和可操作的建议,Omdia帮助组织做出明智的增长决策。 如您想了解更多有 关Omdia的最新研究成果,请浏览Omdia官方网站或通过电子邮件联系我们。 Canalys Canalys是Omdia的一部分,全球知名的科技市场独立分析机构,以渠道为核心,致力于为客户提供具有 全球高度和本地视角的市场分析,并协助客户打造具有创新思维的商业模式。我们的分析师作为各自领域 的专家,把市场知识和客户要求相结合,为其打造定制化的研究产品。我们提供的服务涵盖智能移动设 备,PC,IT基础设施,云,网络安全,以及智能汽车等市场。 我们始终为客户对未来技术产业的发展趋势提供指导性洞察,我们高精度、高质 ...
美国滥施关税伤了谁?“数”说美国经济衰退风险增加 民众付出沉重代价
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-04-12 00:41
央视网消息:美国的"关税大棒"正在冲击全球经济,同时也将给美国自身经济带来严重损害。多方警告,特朗普关税政策令美经济衰退风 险增加。 摩根大通:美国经济衰退可能性达60% 当地时间10日,美国媒体援引摩根大通公司发布的报告称,美国经济衰退的可能性高达60%。美国前财政部长耶伦10日在接受美国有线电 视新闻网采访时表示,美国新一届政府的经济政策是她所见过的"最严重的自我伤害"行为。加征关税等政策背景下,美国经济陷入衰退风险已 经上升。 美国前财政部长耶伦称:"没人知道这些政策的走向,在如此高度不确定的环境下,什么样的企业还会进行长期投资。投资支出与消费支 出的下降很可能引发经济衰退,所以我认为经济衰退的可能性已显著上升。" 研究显示:关税政策将使美国家庭年均损失4700美元 付出代价的还有美国民众。美国耶鲁大学预算实验室10日发布的最新研究估算显示,美国的关税政策将使美国家庭平均每年损失4700美 元。数据显示,关税对服装和纺织品的影响尤为显著,短期内消费者将面临服装价格上涨64%的局面。长期来看,服装价格将上涨27%。报告 显示,2025年所有关税措施将使美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长率下降1.1个百分点 ...
海外客商扎堆!实探全球医疗器械行业的“奥林匹克”,参展企业:正加快拓展其他市场
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-04-11 09:35
Core Viewpoint - The 91st China International Medical Equipment Fair (CMEF) successfully attracted numerous overseas buyers despite the backdrop of U.S. tariffs, indicating resilience in the medical device industry and a shift towards exploring markets outside the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Overseas Participation - The CMEF showcased a significant presence of international buyers from countries such as the U.S., Turkey, India, and the Middle East, countering initial concerns about reduced attendance due to U.S. tariffs [2][6] - Many overseas buyers engaged in serious discussions with Chinese exhibitors, exploring potential collaboration opportunities and even planning factory visits [6][8][10] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - Most Chinese exhibitors reported minimal impact from U.S. tariffs, with 7 out of 10 companies indicating that their products do not export to the U.S. market [13] - For companies exporting to the U.S., the tariff impact was still considered minor, with one company noting that U.S. exports account for less than 10% of their total sales [13][14] - Some companies experienced order pauses from U.S. clients, with one reporting a value of approximately 1 million yuan in suspended orders [13] Group 3: Market Expansion Strategies - In response to U.S. tariffs, companies are actively seeking to expand into European and other international markets, with one company establishing a sales office in Dubai to cover Europe and Africa [14] - Companies are also focusing on Southeast Asia and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative to mitigate the loss of U.S. orders [15][16] - The Chinese government is supporting foreign trade enterprises in exploring domestic markets and enhancing their competitiveness through various initiatives [16][17]
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250410
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 01:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Under the influence of the current US tariff policy, market risk aversion has increased, risk assets have continued to weaken, and oil prices have remained in a downward trend [2]. - In the second quarter, Asian PX plants will undergo concentrated maintenance, leading to a significant decline in supply, with the intensity of maintenance to be observed. It is expected that the market will shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction in the second quarter [2]. - Currently, cost is the most important influencing factor. Even if the fundamentals improve, it will be difficult to reverse the situation. The PX CFR China price on April 9 was $699 per ton. The escalation of the US tariff policy may trigger concerns about a global economic slowdown, causing a narrow decline in international oil prices and squeezing the cost side of PX [2]. - Amid the escalation of trade frictions, the market is filled with a strong sense of fear of price drops. Industry players are mainly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The sales of downstream polyester products are lackluster, and the PTA market continues to decline. Although the PTA social inventory is at a neutral to high level compared to historical periods, there has been a slight decrease in inventory in the past month, and it is expected to see inventory reduction from April to May [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5,400 - 5,600 yuan per ton, a decrease of 215 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The cost - pricing logic continues to operate, and it is difficult to break away from the follow - up logic in the short term [2]. - Due to the impact of the tariff policy, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: - 2, PTA view score: - 2, PR view score: - 1) [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On April 9, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $62.35 per barrel, up 4.65% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $65.48 per barrel, up 4.23%. The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $517.75 per ton, down 3.63%. The spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $619 per ton, down 4.11%. The spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China's main port was $699 per ton, down 2.92% [1]. - **PTA**: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,110 yuan per ton, down 4.33%; the settlement price was 4,144 yuan per ton, down 4.95%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,122 yuan per ton, down 3.96%; the settlement price was 4,156 yuan per ton, down 3.80%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,366 yuan per ton, down 4.07%. The CCFEI price index of purified terephthalic acid PTA for the domestic market was 4,150 yuan per ton, down 4.71%; the CCFEI price index for the external market on April 8 was $559.5 per ton, down 1.76%. The near - far month spread was 12 yuan per ton, up 52 yuan; the basis was 40 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan [1]. - **PX**: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 5,724 yuan per ton, down 4.22%; the settlement price was 5,796 yuan per ton, down 4.98%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 5,752 yuan per ton, down 4.99%; the settlement price was 5,752 yuan per ton, down 4.99%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 5,781 yuan per ton, down 2.08%. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene CFR Taiwan, China was $700 per ton, down 2.91%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene FOB South Korea was $675 per ton, down 3.02%. The PXN spread was $181.25 per ton, down 0.82%; the PX - MX spread was $80 per ton, up 7.38%. The basis was 57 yuan per ton, up 129 yuan [1]. - **PR**: On April 9, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,378 yuan per ton, down 2.50%; the settlement price was 5,406 yuan per ton, down 2.98%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,350 yuan per ton, down 2.59%; the settlement price was 5,350 yuan per ton, down 2.59%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 2.69%; in the South China market, it was 5,450 yuan per ton, down 3.54%. The basis in the East China market was 42 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan; in the South China market, it was 72 yuan per ton, down 62 yuan [1]. - **Downstream**: On April 9, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 1.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.07%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,800 yuan per ton, down 2.16%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,750 yuan per ton, down 2.17%; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,230 yuan per ton, down 3.86%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,440 yuan per ton, down 4.06%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 2.69% [2]. Operating Conditions - On April 9, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 73.35%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 76.77%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester plants was 89.35%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle chip plants was 75.47%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 66.76%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On April 9, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 25%, down 6 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 58%, up 14 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 44%, down 23 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast and the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in the South China are planned to undergo maintenance in the near future, which requires further attention [2].
【GMA直播】关注美国关税政策动向,衰退担忧仍存,黄金还能做多吗?点击观看GMA指标直播分析
news flash· 2025-04-08 13:10
Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of U.S. tariff policies and ongoing concerns about economic recession, raising questions about the future of gold as an investment option [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies - The article highlights the importance of monitoring U.S. tariff policies as they can significantly impact various sectors and investment strategies [1] - Changes in tariff policies may lead to increased volatility in the markets, affecting investor sentiment and asset allocation [1] Group 2: Economic Recession Concerns - There are persistent worries regarding a potential economic recession, which could influence consumer spending and corporate earnings [1] - The article suggests that these recession fears may drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 3: Gold Investment Outlook - The discussion includes whether gold remains a viable investment option amidst the current economic climate and tariff uncertainties [1] - The potential for gold to appreciate in value is linked to its historical role as a hedge against economic instability [1]
伟仕佳杰(00856) - 自愿公告 - 业务更新
2025-04-07 09:11
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公佈的內容概不負責,對其準確性或完整性 亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示概不就因本公佈全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任何損失承擔任何責任。 於本公佈日期,董事會由執行董事李佳林先生、王偉炘先生、李玥先生、陳海洲先生及顧三軍 先生;非執行董事張冬杰先生;以及獨立非執行董事李煒先生、高懿洋女士及余定恒先生組 成。 本公告由偉仕佳杰控股有限公司(「本公司」,連同其附屬公司,「本集 團」),就美國對所有進口至美國的商品徵收額外關稅對本集團業務的影 響,自願作出。 儘管頒布了上述額外關稅,但由於本集團所有產品均在中國內地、香港、 澳門及東盟地區銷售;而本集團採購的產品主要在亞洲生產。就此,本公 司董事會認為美國新公佈的關稅政策不會對本集團的業務產生直接不利影 響。 股東及潛在投資者於買賣本公司股份時務請審慎行事。 承董事會命 偉仕佳杰控股有限公司 公司秘書 林從帥 香港,二零二五年四月七日 自願公告 業務更新 ...