Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations, marking the third consecutive pause since January and March [2] - The Fed noted that while the unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is strong, inflation is still at a relatively high level, indicating increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted that significant tariff increases by the U.S. government could lead to rising inflation, slowing economic growth, and increasing unemployment, potentially delaying the achievement of the Fed's goals until next year [2][3] Group 2 - Powell stated that tariffs might have a short-term impact on inflation but could also lead to more persistent effects, emphasizing the appropriateness of the current policy stance and the need for patience [3] - He dismissed the idea of preemptive rate cuts before achieving inflation targets, indicating that the current situation does not warrant such actions until more data is available [3] - Recent economic data showed an increase of 177,000 in non-farm payrolls for April, with an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, while the first quarter GDP contracted by 0.3% year-on-year due to increased imports to avoid tariffs [4]

巴西央行加息50BP至近20年高位，对下一步行动持开放态度 金十数据5月8日讯，巴西央行周三加息50个基点至14.75%，为连续第六次加息，将借贷成本推升至近 20年来高位，在全球不确定性和国内通胀持续高企的情况下，巴西央行对未来的举措持开放态度。央行 决策官员强调，当前的环境需要"长期采取明显限缩的货币政策"，以实现通胀目标。央行决议声明称， 由于不确定性上升，加上当前货币政策周期所处的进阶位置及其累积影响尚待观察，下一次会议需要对 货币政策行动更加谨慎，并灵活纳入影响通胀前景的数据。BMG银行首席经济学家Flavio Serrano表 示，央行暗示必要时6月可能以更小幅度升息，但他认为这种可能性不大。"我的基本假设是6月零加 息，维持在14.75%。年底可能还有降息空间，这取决于前景如何演变。" ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：长期通胀预期与目标保持一致。 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government has urgently implemented a comprehensive plan to mitigate the negative impacts of U.S. tariff policies on its businesses and consumers [1][3] - The plan includes measures such as improving corporate consulting systems, enhancing financing support for businesses, maintaining employment, stimulating domestic consumption, transforming industrial structures, and increasing competitiveness [1][3] - Prime Minister Kishida emphasized the potential fundamental changes to the international economic order due to U.S. tariffs, particularly affecting Japan's key industries like automotive and steel [3][8] Group 2 - Specific measures include lowering gasoline prices, providing subsidies for electricity and gas, and easing conditions for employment adjustment subsidies for companies that maintain employment without layoffs [3][4] - Japan is planning to increase imports of U.S. corn as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations, with an estimated import volume of about 11.5 million tons valued at approximately 459 billion yen in 2024 [4] - The Bank of Japan is facing uncertainty regarding its interest rate decisions due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, with expectations of maintaining the current rate at 0.5% and potentially lowering growth forecasts [6][8]

新华财经北京5月1日电（马萌伟）由于美国关税带来的不确定性加剧，日本央行全票一致通过利率政策 决定，连续第二次会议将目标利率维持在0.50%不变，并下调经济增长预期。受此影响，美元兑日元走 高。 由于特朗普的贸易战推动了对美国资产的抛售以及避险需求增加，日元在过去四个月连续上涨，上周达 到了自去年9月以来的最高水平。 考虑到地缘政治的不确定性以及近期日元的强势，市场将密切关注日本央行行长植田和男在下午的新闻 发布会上对未来加息的任何指导。 目前，掉期交易员推迟了对日本央行加息的押注，隔夜指数掉期显示，日本央行到今年年底加息的可能 性约为50%，而4月初则是肯定的。 日本央行表示，实际利率处于历史较低水平，将从可持续、稳定地实现2%通胀目标的角度，酌情实施 货币政策。 日本央行下调其对2025和2026财年的经济增长预测，2025-2026财年实际GDP增速预期中值分别为 0.5%、0.7%，1月份预期分别为1.1%、1.0%。 日本央行也下调了核心通胀预期，2025-2026财年核心CPI预期中值分别为2.2%、1.7%，1月份预期为 2.4%、2.0%。但日本央行预计通胀水平仍将大致按计划在未来几年达到2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains its benchmark interest rate while lowering economic growth forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 due to uncertainties in global trade policies, particularly from the U.S. [1][2] Economic Impact - The Bank of Japan highlights that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, which would suppress export demand, squeeze corporate profits, and cause households and businesses to delay consumption and investment [2] - The central bank perceives the downward pressure on the economy as temporary, expecting a gradual recovery in overseas economies to alleviate the negative impacts of tariffs [2] Inflation Outlook - The Bank of Japan observes that tariff risks are causing a chain reaction affecting inflation, predicting a stagnation in potential inflation rates for a period before a return to upward momentum [2] - Due to tariff increases, the Bank has revised down its growth forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026, anticipating a period of slowing inflation and wage growth, although a severe labor shortage is expected to sustain a positive cycle of wage and inflation increases [2][3] Policy Response - The Bank of Japan adopts a pragmatic approach, indicating that policy responses will depend on the extent of deviations in inflation and growth from expectations [4] - Despite lowering growth forecasts, the central bank has not altered its policy framework, emphasizing the need for continued monetary easing to support economic activity [4] Future Considerations - Trade negotiations are identified as a critical variable for future policy, with the potential for a reassessment of economic forecasts if trade disputes escalate and disrupt global supply chains [5] - The Bank of Japan has adjusted its timeline for achieving its inflation target, now suggesting a delay of several years compared to previous expectations of reaching the target around FY2025 [5] Market Reaction - Following the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate increased, and market participants have pushed back expectations for interest rate hikes, indicating that the uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies will likely delay any rate increases [7] - The Japanese economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, but there are still weak indicators, particularly in exports and output, which may continue to be affected by trade policy uncertainties [7]

日本央行行长植田和男：如果我们对下一财年晚些时候实现2%的通胀目标有足够的信心，那么加息是 有可能的。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：推迟实现通胀目标的时间不等于推迟加息。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：（当被问及关于在2026财年下半年至2027财年之间实现通胀目标的问题时）这 样说是对的。 ...

智通财经5月1日电，日本央行行长植田和男表示，预计美国关税将比10%的基础税率要高，要实现之前 的通胀目标并不简单。 ...