Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].

Group 1 - The main contract of rapeseed meal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 2581.00 yuan, with a drop of 2.71% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future market trends of rapeseed meal, with 中辉期货 suggesting cautious short selling, 瑞达期货 indicating a general maintenance of fluctuations, and 方正中期期货 predicting short-term price oscillations [2][3][4] Group 2 - 中辉期货 notes that the rapeseed meal market is currently stable, with a basis quote in the range of 120-130 yuan/ton, and emphasizes the importance of managing positions and targets due to limited new supply [2] - 瑞达期货 highlights that the increase in oil factory operating rates due to the arrival of imported soybeans is putting pressure on the rapeseed meal market, while the demand for rapeseed meal is supported by the peak season for aquaculture [3] - 方正中期期货 points out that the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is decreasing, and there is an expectation of increased production for the new season, while also noting the pressure from soybean meal prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) declined on June 23 due to rainfall in western Canada and the weakening of US soybeans, which alleviated concerns about crop shortages. The 11 - month rapeseed contract closed 17.70 Canadian dollars lower at 725 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The good condition of US soybeans and favorable weather forecasts for the Midwest continue to constrain the US soybean market. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate has increased significantly, leading to a more relaxed supply and putting pressure on the meal market prices [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the peak season of aquaculture has arrived, increasing the feed demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal is good, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations adds to the potential increase in supply, dragging down the market price of rapeseed meal. The short - term market focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, and the growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage [2]. - For rapeseed oil, palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing season, which restricts its market price. However, increased exports boost the palm oil market. The US Environmental Protection Agency's suggestion to increase the blending requirements for biofuels in 2026 and 2027 has greatly increased the demand expectation for US soybean oil, driving up the soybean oil market price. The Middle - East situation has a significant impact on international oil prices, increasing the volatility of the oil market. Domestically, the high inventory pressure of oil mills continues to restrict the market price. Although the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations adds supply pressure, the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides support for the domestic rapeseed oil market price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil futures contract was 9572 yuan/ton, down 149 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal futures contract was 2662 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 94 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 288 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - The position of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased by 21,225 hands to 372,654 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 1429 hands to 35,129 hands. The position of the main rapeseed meal contract decreased by 2498 hands to 516,622 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 6616 hands to 20,885 hands [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 100, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased by 963 to 24,711. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures contract was 724.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 17.1 Canadian dollars [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9920 yuan/ton, and the average price was 9936.25 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2550 yuan/ton, and the oil - meal ratio was 3.78, up 0.05 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 199 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was - 112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1540 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed was 89.56 million tons, up 4.32 million tons, and the annual predicted production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 5280.97 yuan/ton, down 136.56 yuan/ton, and the import rapeseed crushing profit was 125 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, down 5 million tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 14.26%, down 4.83 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 12.2 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.01 million tons, down 0.54 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 63.05 million tons, up 2.05 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 36.83 million tons, down 0.41 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 7.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 30.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 2.81 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 2.87 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.37%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.37%, up 0.42 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 15.87%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.4%, unchanged [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.77%, up 0.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.77%, up 0.51 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 14%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.63%, up 0.18 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend, influenced by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed, the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and the trend of soybean meal. The future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [8][42][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. The annual rapeseed production in Canada has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased due to lower output in the EU and Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may support commodity prices [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. Bearish factors: The upcoming listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed Arrival**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost was in a slightly bullish and volatile trend [18]. - **Oil Mill Operation and Inventory**: The rapeseed inventory at oil mills continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory slightly decreased to a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume at oil mills slightly decreased [21][23]. - **Rapeseed Meal Transaction**: Not provided in the given content - **Aquaculture**: The prices of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimps and shellfish remained stable. China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports are presented, but no specific analysis is given [25][27][29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [15][17]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal decreased, but capital inflows were observed [8]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal is in a short - term range - bound and slightly bullish trend. The low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes support the price, but the absence of additional tariffs on rapeseed imports limits the upside potential [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.55 tons, a 18.42% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.9 tons and a 40.38% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.6 tons, which is bullish [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The KDJ indicator is oscillating and falling from a high level, and the MACD is oscillating upward with a narrowing red energy bar. In general, the short - term trend is slightly bullish, but the future trend depends on policies and the movement of soybean meal [42]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, the futures are expected to be slightly bullish. For the RM2509 contract, it is recommended to trade within the range above 2600 or wait and see. For options, sell slightly out - of - the - money put options on the 09 contract [12]. 7. Next Week's Focus Points - The most important factors are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. Secondary factors include domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the inventory of rapeseed meal at domestic oil mills and downstream procurement. Other factors include macro - economy and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil production is expected to increase month - on - month, with seasonal production growth approaching, increasing supply expectations. Although domestic port inventories are currently low, as origin quotes weaken, future purchases are emerging. With the current inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and inventory is expected to grow, requiring a further narrowing of the spread to stimulate consumption [3]. - For soybean oil, as purchased ships arrive at ports, supply pressure is increasing, and oil mill压榨 is expected to rise. With no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, inventory is expected to enter a build - up cycle. Given the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may repair in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the expected improvement in China - Canada relations has reduced the premium in the market's policy - related trading. The current supply is at a peak, but new supply will be limited, and the marginal inventory reduction is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. High inventory is suppressing prices, but policy uncertainty provides support for far - month prices [3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened with the international market. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is abundant, and the fourth - quarter supply depends on China - US negotiations [15]. - In the domestic soybean meal market, prices have strengthened with the international market due to China - US negotiation expectations. However, the concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will put pressure on prices. Downstream demand is weak, and the basis remains weak [15]. - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is below expectations. The inventory reduction is difficult. The far - month supply has some gaps, but demand is limited. The market is weak, and future trends depend on China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price Spreads - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 4 yuan/ton; P 5 - 9 is - 152 yuan/ton with a daily change of 16 yuan/ton; P 9 - 1 is 30 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 12 yuan/ton [4]. - Soybean - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 432 yuan/ton with a daily change of 30 yuan/ton; Y - P 05 is - 650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 20 yuan/ton; Y - P 09 is - 386 yuan/ton with a daily change of 48 yuan/ton [4]. - Other spreads: Y/M and OI/RM also have corresponding price and change data [4]. 3.2. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm oil futures prices: Palm oil 01 is 8504 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 05 is 8382 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 09 is 8536 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.02% [6]. - Spot and related prices: BMD palm oil主力 is 4143 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.95%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8730 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton; the basis is 222 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean oil futures prices: Soybean oil 01 is 8082 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.23%; Soybean oil 05 is 7736 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.04%; Soybean oil 09 is 8156 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.32% [12]. - Spot and related prices: CBOT soybean oil主力 is 54.62 cents/pound with a decline of 0.13%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8300 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the basis is 98 yuan/ton with a decline of 18 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4. Oilseed Futures Prices - Soybean meal futures prices: Soybean meal 01 is 3097 with a decline of 7 and a decline rate of 0.23%; Soybean meal 05 is 2768 with a decline of 1 and a decline rate of 0.04%; Soybean meal 09 is 3067 with a decline of 10 and a decline rate of 0.32% [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures prices: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2395 with a decline of 33 and a decline rate of 1.36%; Rapeseed meal 05 is 2389 with a decline of 21 and a decline rate of 0.87%; Rapeseed meal 09 is 2679 with a decline of 15 and a decline rate of 0.56% [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the influence of US biodiesel news, soybean oil and palm oil are considered bullish in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is to be put under temporary observation due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price Data - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8870, 8820, and 8800 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 80, and 0 compared to June 18 [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8400, and 8360 respectively, with price changes of 70, 50, and 70 compared to June 18 [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9900, 9920, and 10100 respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, and 20 compared to June 18 [1] 2. Futures Data - **Spread between Main Contracts**: On June 19, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 386, up 48 from June 18; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1539, down 80 from June 18 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, 2025, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 540, 17552, and 100 respectively, with no change compared to June 18 [1] 3. Policy and Trade Data - **US Biodiesel Policy**: EPA's expected biomass diesel BBD blending obligations for 2026 - 2027 are 56.1 and 58.6 billion gallons respectively, exceeding the previous market expectation of 46.5 - 52.5 billion gallons [1] - **Indian Imports**: In May, India's sunflower oil, soybean oil, and palm oil imports were 183555 tons, 398585 tons, and 592888 tons respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.9%, 10.42%, and 84.44%; the total vegetable oil imports were 1187068 tons, a 33.15% month - on - month increase [1] 4. Production and Inventory Data - **MPOB May Data**: Palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 67900 tons, an 18.32% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; consumption was 327600 tons, a 3.36% month - on - month decrease; and the ending inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase [1] - **June High - frequency Data**: From June 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 26.3% (ITS data) or 17.77% (Amspec data) compared to the same period last month [1] - **Argentine Soybean Production**: As of June 11, the 24/25 soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, 2.8 percentage points behind the same period last year [2] - **US Soybean Production**: As of June 8, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [2] 5. Other Factors - **Weather**: Future two - week precipitation for US soybeans is moderately high, and Malaysia's precipitation is expected to be neutral [1][2] - **Trade Relations**: There is an expectation of easing China - Canada trade relations [2] - **Domestic Supply**: In the short - term, the low rapeseed inventory makes the supply of rapeseed oil tight, but the supply may be supplemented in the far - month due to the expected easing of trade relations [2]

Group 1: Cotton Market - Cotton futures prices are experiencing fluctuations as temperatures in Xinjiang rise, with most cotton fields entering the flowering stage, indicating good growth conditions [1] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding US-China tariff policies is causing market volatility, while the downstream textile industry is in a traditional consumption lull, leading to reduced orders and slight inventory accumulation [1] - Cotton prices may face downward pressure in the short term due to demand seasonality, with a support level to watch around 13,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal and Oil Market - Soybean meal prices are rising, but there are still supply pressures, and inventory depletion may be challenging due to a lack of significant increases in aquaculture production [1] - Soybean oil prices are also increasing, supported by strong bottom levels despite a persistent oversupply situation, influenced by international relations and overall oil market trends [1] Group 3: Sugar Market - Sugar futures prices are declining, with Brazil's exports showing a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and India's projected sugar production for the 2025/2026 season estimated at 35 million tons [2] - In Guangxi, sugar sales have increased by 537,100 tons year-on-year, with a sales rate of 71.85%, indicating a positive trend in local sugar consumption [2] - Short-term sugar prices in Zhengzhou are expected to follow external market fluctuations, with a key support level at 5,600 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Peanut Market - Peanut prices are declining due to weak spot market transactions, with new season prices stabilizing around 4.7 yuan per jin [2] - A significant reduction in import volumes is pushing up imported peanut prices, while peanut oil prices remain stable, indicating a mixed market response [2] Group 5: Overall Market Trends - The Yisheng Agricultural Futures Index showed a rebound last week, closing at 1,155.54 points, ending the previous week's downward trend [3] - The market is expected to continue experiencing wide fluctuations, with the index likely to maintain a volatile operating pattern in the near future [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the fast planting progress and good excellent rate of US soybeans continue to constrain the US soybean market, but the positive sentiment from the Sino - US framework agreement benefits domestic meal prices through cost transmission. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans increases oil - mill operating rates, suppressing the meal market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts rapeseed meal demand, and the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed and the "weather - dominated" growth stage are factors to watch. However, the expected easing of Sino - Canadian trade relations may increase supply and drag down prices. Short - term participation is recommended for rapeseed meal futures [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the seasonal production increase in palm oil producing areas and high domestic oil - mill inventory pressure constrain prices. The expected easing of Sino - Canadian trade relations may increase supply. But the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides support. Rapeseed oil trends stronger than soybean and palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended while paying attention to Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9178 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2674 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 695.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5053 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) is 148 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) is 311 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 284550 lots, down 2578 lots; rapeseed meal is 573176 lots, up 25259 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 37089 lots, up 6130 lots; rapeseed meal is 20123 lots, up 16817 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 26315, down 96 [2]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8020 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 8350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9353.75 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Import cost price: Imported rapeseed is 5274.5 yuan/ton, up 37.95 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 201 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; rapeseed meal main - contract basis is - 104 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Total rapeseed imports are 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports are 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; rapeseed meal imports are 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Oil - mill inventory: Total rapeseed inventory is 25 million tons, unchanged; coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 14.3 million tons, down 0.65 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.9 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 61.2 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 38.18 million tons, down 0.86 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 7.4 million tons, unchanged; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 25.2 million tons, up 1.5 million tons [2]. - Operating rates: Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate is 19.19%, down 4.53 percentage points [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed disk pressing profit is 36 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly value is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: The monthly value is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Catering revenue: The monthly value is 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 5. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option is 21.79%, down 0.07 percentage points; at - the - money put option is 21.81%, down 0.05 percentage points; rapeseed oil at - the - money call option is 14.7%, down 0.1 percentage points; at - the - money put option is 14.69%, down 0.11 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal is 16.79%, up 0.31 percentage points; 60 - day rapeseed meal is 21.44%, down 0.03 percentage points; 20 - day rapeseed oil is 11.31%, down 0.27 percentage points; 60 - day rapeseed oil is 13.47%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. 6. Industry News - Canadian rapeseed futures on the ICE closed higher on Wednesday, following the upward trends of Chicago soybean oil and international crude oil futures. The 7 - month contract rose 5.10 Canadian dollars to 714.30 Canadian dollars/ton; the 11 - month contract rose 2.70 Canadian dollars to 693.90 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract rose 2.90 Canadian dollars to 701.30 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the excellent rate of US soybeans was 68% as expected [2]. 7. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from My Agricultural Network on Monday, and the trends of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

6月11日，郑商所菜油期货仓单1085张，环比上个交易日持平。 分析观点： 瑞达期货（002961）研报：油厂库存压力持续偏高，继续牵制市场价格。且中加贸易关系缓和的预期增 强，增添后期供应压力。不过，加菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传到下，给国内菜油市场价格带来支撑。盘 面来看，受加菜籽支撑，菜油走势较豆棕偏强，短线参与为主，关注中加贸易关系变化。 期货市场上看，6月12日收盘，菜籽油期货主力合约报9178.00元/吨，涨幅0.09%，最高触及9215.00元/ 吨，最低下探9140.00元/吨，日内成交量达278856手。 【市场资讯】 6月12日，加拿大菜油(7月船期)1050美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜油(9月船期)1030美元/ 吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 数据显示，6月11日全国进口四级菜油均价现货价格报价9353.75元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（9149.00 元/吨）升水204.75元/吨。 （6月12日）今日全国菜籽油价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产地 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 等 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-06-11 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 9149 141 | -39 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) -1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 2638 289 | 9 | | 期货市场 | | | | | 16 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 287128 | -1958 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 547917 | -4152 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 30959 | -12008 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | 3306 | 15019 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 0 692.8 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) ...