1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 55 to close at 4,229 ringgit/ton, an increase of 1.32%; the palm oil 05 contract rose 330 to close at 9,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%. The overall oil and fat sector strengthened with fluctuations. Rapeseed oil led the rise in the oil and fat sector this week. Palm oil fluctuated upward due to factors such as geopolitical issues in Iran, the US cold wave affecting production and supply, expectations of US biodiesel policies, pre - Spring Festival stocking in China, and fundamental support [4][6]. - The market has a consistent expectation of a decrease in production and an increase in demand for Malaysian palm oil in January. It is waiting for the guidance of the MPOB report data. Additionally, attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade relationship and the progress of US biodiesel policies. It is expected that palm oil will experience high - level oscillatory adjustments in the short term [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 0.39 to close at 53.54 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.72%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 55 to close at 4,229 ringgit/ton, an increase of 1.32%; the DCE palm oil contract rose 330 to close at 9,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 188 to close at 8,282 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 389 to close at 9,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.33%. The soybean - palm oil futures spread decreased by 142 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm oil futures spread increased by 59 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 330 to 9,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 150 to 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 390 to 10,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.00% [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movements**: Similar to the data in the market data section, various oil futures contracts showed different price changes last week, with the overall oil and fat sector strengthening with fluctuations [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US pressured Canada and threatened to impose a 100% tariff. The Canadian Prime Minister stated that he was not seeking a trade agreement with China. Although the market reported that China had purchased several ships of Canadian rapeseed, the future China - Canada trade relationship remains uncertain. Geopolitical issues in Iran and the US cold wave affected production and supply, causing a significant increase in oil prices, which boosted the oil and fat sector. Expectations of US biodiesel policies, pre - Spring Festival stocking in China, and fundamental support further strengthened the upward trend of palm oil [6]. - **Production and Export Data**: From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while export data from different institutions showed different trends. The SPPOMA data indicated that the yield per unit decreased by 15.28% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. The MPOA data showed that the estimated production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. The ITS data showed a 9.97% increase in exports, the AmSpec data showed a 7.97% increase, and the SGS data showed a 9.41% decrease [7][8]. - **Trade News**: Trump pressured the China - Canada trade relationship. After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, Chinese importers signed contracts to purchase up to 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed, with a total of about 650,000 tons, equivalent to more than 10% of China's rapeseed imports in 2024 and about 26% of the 2025 import volume [8]. - **Inventory and Transaction Data**: As of the week of January 23, 2026, the total inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 1.9528 million tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons from the previous week and an increase of 78,000 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of January 30, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 50,660 tons, and that of palm oil was 820 tons [9]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Trump nominated Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, increasing market volatility and causing the US dollar index to rise. The US production is gradually recovering, and attention should be paid to the changes in the US - Iran situation and the decline in oil prices. The market has a consistent expectation of a decrease in production and an increase in demand for Malaysian palm oil in January, waiting for the MPOB report data [9]. 3.3 Industry News - India cancelled 35,000 - 40,000 tons of soybean oil orders from Brazil and Argentina, originally scheduled for February and April - July delivery. The total cancelled soybean oil orders are expected to exceed 50,000 tons due to the rupee exchange rate hitting a record low, which widened the price difference between domestic and imported soybean oil [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil main contracts, the futures price index trends of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the monthly production, inventory, and export data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory data of domestic oils [11][13][15].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 白旭宇 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，1月收盘棕榈油2605合约9240元/吨，环比上涨656元，涨幅7.64%；1月收盘豆油2605合约 8282元/吨，环比上涨420元，涨幅5.34%；1月收盘菜油2605合约9380元/吨，环比上涨293元，涨幅 3.22%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价格9170元/吨，环比上涨600元/吨，涨幅7.0%，现货基差P05- 70，环比下跌56元；天津地区一级豆油现货8510元/吨，环比上涨260，涨幅3.15%，现货基差 Y05+228，环比下跌160；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10160元/吨，环比上涨330元，涨幅3.36%，现货 基差OI05+780，环比上涨37。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，MP0B数据显示马来西亚12月毛棕榈油产量较前月减少5.46%至182.98万吨，高于市场预期。 SPPOMA：2026年1月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少15.28%，出油率环比上月同期增加 0.11%，产量环比上月同期减少14.81%。钢联数据统计截至1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to rapeseed meal, indicating a balanced view on its investment prospects [8] Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal prices first rose and then fell, influenced by the rebound of soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market returned to a short - term oscillation due to the potential cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports by China. In the short term, the market is weakly oscillating due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations, but in the medium term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market, and the post - Spring Festival demand expectation is good [8] - The market is currently focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11] - After the impact of the improvement in China - Canada trade relations and the digestion of overall negative factors, rapeseed meal will maintain an oscillating pattern. Future trends depend on the development of China - Canada trade relations [8] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is in the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Due to China - Canada trade issues, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease, reducing domestic supply [10] - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [10] - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The demand for rapeseed meal in China after the Spring Festival is expected to be good, and the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [11] - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is currently in the off - season, and the improvement in China - Canada trade relations means that China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11] - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance Sheets**: Detailed supply - demand balance sheets for domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 - 2025 are provided, including data on harvest area, production, inventory, and consumption [16][18] - **Import and Production**: There were no arrivals of imported rapeseed in January, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills remained at zero, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories of oil mills were at low levels [19][21][23] - **Aquaculture**: Aquaculture fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. Data on China's aquatic product, fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crab production, as well as OECD's estimates of China's fish production and imports, are provided [25][27][31] - **Price**: Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot price at a relatively high premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened, and the price difference of the 2605 contract rebounded to a high level [33][38] 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out, indicating a bearish sentiment [8] 6. Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - **Futures**: In the short term, it will return to range - bound trading. The RM2605 contract will oscillate between 2200 and 2400 in the short term. Traders can either trade short - term or wait and see [13] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13] 7. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is weakly oscillating due to the improvement in China - Canada trade relations. The KDJ indicator has rebounded from the low - level oscillation, and the MACD is undergoing technical adjustment with the green energy narrowing. In the short term, it is weakly oscillating, and in the medium term, it is oscillating strongly. Future trends depend on policy and soybean meal trends [43] 8. Next Week's Focus Points - **Most Important**: The growth and harvest weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45] - **Second - most Important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [45] - **Third - most Important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 菜籽类市场周报 政策层面仍然存忧 推动菜油价格补涨 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收涨，05合约收盘价9380元/吨，较前一周+389元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：全球及加拿大菜籽供需格局相对宽松，继续牵制其市场价格。且美国总统特朗普表示， 如果加拿大与中国达成贸易协议并予以推进，他将对加拿大征收100%的关税。对加拿大菜油出口 较为不利。不过，中加贸易关系缓和，提振加拿大菜籽出口预期，支撑加菜籽市场。其它方面， 美国生柴政策可能利好，同时，高频数据显示，马棕本月供应端延续减产，且本月前二十五日出 口明显增加。另外，印度取消豆油买船，或转向性价比更高的棕榈油，给市场提供额外支撑。国 内方面，现阶段油厂继续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价格形成支撑，菜油基差维 持高位。同时，美国对加拿大施压，对此引发市场对中加贸易协定最终能否完全落地存在疑虑。 不过，路透社消息称，中国进口商获得了多达10船加拿大油菜籽船货，预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural commodities: - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][7]. - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. - **Corn/Starch**: Expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term, and the price is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with a mid - term strategy of buying on dips [16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the mid - term [19]. - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, suggesting buying on dips [20]. - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [20]. - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. - **Offset Paper**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [24]. - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate within a range [25]. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural commodities. Overall, the market is influenced by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, international trade, and weather. There are opportunities for short - term trading and mid - to long - term investment strategies in different commodities, but also risks associated with market fluctuations [4][7][9][11][12][13][16][19][20][21][23][24][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: Concerns over China - Canada trade relations led to a significant increase in rapeseed oil prices. Overall, the upward trend of vegetable oils was supported by rising crude oil prices and positive fundamental expectations [1][6]. - **Logic**: Rapeseed oil was affected by Trump's tariff remarks, raising concerns about future rapeseed supply. The 2025/26 Canadian rapeseed production was a record high, but exports were expected to decrease. For soybeans, the US biodiesel policy provided emotional support. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in January 2026, while exports increased, with favorable export expectations [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Suggest considering buying on dips for hedging and a long - palm oil, short - rapeseed oil arbitrage strategy [4][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: Pre - holiday stocking led to an increase in the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market sentiment was positive for US soybeans due to potential Chinese purchases and the US biodiesel policy, but the Brazilian soybean harvest and increased supply expectations were negative factors. Domestically, oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, and the price of soybean meal was expected to be under pressure. The price of rapeseed meal was expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. 3. Corn/Starch - **View**: The market was influenced by both positive and negative factors and was expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Logic**: The supply was in a tight balance. The pre - holiday selling pressure was not large, and the feed enterprises' inventory could cover the Spring Festival. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory increased, but the demand was weak. The substitution of grains and policy grain auctions also affected the market [12]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The market was in a state with an upper limit and a lower limit [12]. 4. Hogs - **View**: The reduction in slaughter orders led to a decline in hog prices [13]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure was increasing due to slow - paced January slaughter and the entry of second - fattening pigs. In the medium - term, the supply would be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, the supply pressure was expected to ease after May 2026. The demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing [13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term. The industry was advised to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle was expected to bottom out in the second half of 2026 [13]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: The price faced significant pressure from previous highs [16]. - **Logic**: After being driven up by synthetic rubber, the price of natural rubber fluctuated sideways. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand was not strong, with a fast inventory build - up. However, it was supported by the positive sentiment in the chemical sector [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables were limited, and it was difficult to break through the previous high. It was recommended to buy on dips in the mid - term, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate widely [16]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The operating logic remained unchanged, and the price was expected to be strong [19]. - **Logic**: The market was trading on the expectation of a tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The rotation of commodity funds to the chemical sector also had a positive impact. The price of butadiene was rising due to limited supply and strong demand [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene was expected to improve, but there was short - term pressure. The mid - term trend was expected to be upward [19]. 7. Cotton - **View**: The cotton price fluctuated and adjusted, lacking new positive factors in the short - term [20]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection was almost finished. The import of cotton and cotton yarn increased, and the downstream stocking increased. The commercial inventory was accumulating, but the overall apparent consumption was good. In the long - term, the supply might be tight, but there was short - term resistance [20]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. It was recommended to buy on dips [20]. 8. Sugar - **View**: There was support at the bottom, but the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market was expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. All major producing countries were expected to increase production, putting pressure on sugar prices. The current valuation was relatively low, and the price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. It was recommended to short on rebounds [20]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The price of hardwood pulp continued to decline, and the pulp fundamentals were weak [21]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp decreased as the downstream production declined. The demand feedback was more significant for hardwood pulp. The main positive factor was the rising US dollar price of pulp, while there were more negative factors such as seasonal demand weakness and abundant supply [21]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. 10. Offset Paper - **View**: There was no positive driving force, and the price was expected to be weak [24]. - **Logic**: The supply was abundant, and the high pulp cost squeezed profits. The market demand was weak, and the price increase was difficult to pass on. The industry's production might decrease, and the trading volume was expected to weaken [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The spot price was expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range [24]. 11. Logs - **View**: The spot price in Lanshan increased, and the price was expected to be strong within a range [25]. - **Logic**: The log market first declined and then rebounded. The next - period overseas quotation was expected to increase. The delivery pressure decreased, and the spot supply in Jiangsu was tight. The price was expected to be strong in the short - term [25]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate within a range. The negative factors were digested, and the spot price increase might boost market sentiment [25]. 12. Commodity Index - **On January 26, 2026**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the 20 - commodity index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index), and agricultural product index all showed increases. The agricultural product index had a daily increase of 0.54%, a 5 - day increase of 1.27%, a 1 - month increase of 2.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.40% [189][190].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Oil and Fat Industry**: The potential positive impact of the US biodiesel policy on CBOT soybean oil is countered by the approaching Chinese New Year, which reduces the likelihood of continuous long - position trading. The soybean oil basis may still decline in the short term. Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short - term correction. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, with limited upside potential in the short term [1]. - **Cotton Industry**: US cotton is in a low - level oscillation. The high cotton consumption due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills in China, along with the expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area, provides strong support for Zhengzhou cotton. Attention should be paid to the support level around 14,500 [2]. - **Sugar Industry**: Internationally, raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are likely to maintain a low - level oscillation, with the approaching end of Chinese New Year stocking and lack of upward drivers, but some support from prices below production cost and a positive commodity market atmosphere [3]. - **Jujube Industry**: With the market focusing on peak - season consumption, the spot price of jujubes is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upward space is limited by hedging pressure [4]. - **Apple Industry**: As the Chinese New Year stocking period arrives, the market in some apple - producing areas is warming up. The futures price is expected to be slightly stronger due to the low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and some short - position exits [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch Industry**: In the short term, the tight supply of corn and pre - festival stocking demand support price increases, but the continuous policy - driven corn release and limited high - price transmission restrict the upward space [7]. - **Pig Industry**: The spot price of pigs has strengthened, but the supply pressure is expected to increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is likely to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [10]. - **Meal Industry**: US soybeans are oscillating strongly. The domestic meal market is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space due to factors such as low first - quarter arrival expectations and high - level inventory decline [13]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg supply is stable, and the demand may weaken. As egg prices reach a high level, there is a risk of price correction if the terminal digestion ability is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 23, 2026, soybean oil futures (Y2605) increased by 0.12%, palm oil futures (P2605) decreased by 0.38%, and rapeseed oil futures (OI2605) decreased by 0.12% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35%, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.22%, and the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.20% [1]. - **Basis**: The soybean oil basis decreased by 7.75%, the palm oil basis increased by 53.85%, and the rapeseed oil basis remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The soybean oil inventory in Chinese coastal crushing plants is at a high level since 2022, the palm oil inventory in Chinese ports is slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing [1]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, cotton 2605 decreased by 0.24%, cotton 2609 decreased by 0.17%, and ICE US cotton decreased by 0.11% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.27%, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.20% [2]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: The circular inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, the import volume increased by 49.5%, and the consumption of cotton by downstream spinning mills is high [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, sugar 2605 increased by 0.43%, sugar 2609 increased by 0.33%, and ICE raw sugar decreased by 1.54% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.19%, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.19% [3]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative sugar production in China decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, and the industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. Jujube Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, jujube 2605 increased by 0.63%, jujube 2607 increased by 0.51%, and jujube 2609 increased by 0.44% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Cangzhou's top - grade jujubes increased by 0.11%, and the prices of first - grade and second - grade jujubes remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The number of jujube warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the number of effective forecasts increased by 6.68% [4]. Apple Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, apple 2605 increased by 0.48%, and apple 2610 increased by 0.63% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The basis decreased by 3.57% [5]. - **Inventory**: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% [5]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: On January 26, 2026, corn 2603 increased by 0.22%, the basis decreased by 9.09%, and the north - south trade profit increased by 90.91% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 increased by 0.23%, the basis decreased by 3.57%, and the starch - corn 03 spread increased by 0.36% [7]. Pig Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, the main pig contract increased by 5.31%, pig 2605 decreased by 0.38%, and pig 2603 decreased by 0.30% [10]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions showed different changes [10]. - **Industry Data**: The daily slaughter volume increased by 1.79%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 486.60% [10]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, the futures price (M2605) decreased by 0.61%, and the basis increased by 5.45% [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price (RM2605) decreased by 0.67%, and the basis increased by 5.56% [13]. - **Soybean**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 0.86%, and the basis decreased by 16.30% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, egg 03 decreased by 1.58%, and egg 04 decreased by 1.15% [14]. - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.87%, and the basis increased by 26.72% [14]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 3.33%, the price of culled chickens increased by 3.31%, and the egg - feed ratio increased by 17.36% [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Short-term Rebound**: Soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to have short-term rebounds due to factors like inventory changes and positive market sentiments [1][3]. - **Stop Falling and Rebound**: Rapeseed meal is likely to stop falling and rebound, but a cautious view is recommended due to long - term supply changes [1][6]. - **Short - term Rebound**: Palm oil is expected to have a short - term rebound, yet chasing high prices should be done with caution [1][8]. - **Short - term Oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is predicted to have short - term oscillations, with its decline limited by the high basis [1]. - **Oscillatory Adjustment**: Cotton is expected to have oscillatory adjustments in the short - term, with potential for recovery in the long - term [1][12]. - **Short - term Rebound**: Jujube may experience a short - term rebound as high inventory reduction accelerates, but overall it is under pressure [1][14]. - **Beware of Callback**: For live pigs, there is a need to beware of callback pressure in both the near - term and far - term contracts [1][17]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory and Import**: This week, the latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month, and the estimated imports in February are lower compared to the same period last year, indicating an expected de - stocking phase [1][3]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: Positive talks between Chinese and US officials boosted market confidence in US soybean exports. Slow start of South American soybean harvest (Brazil's harvest rate is 2.3%, lower than the five - year average) and drought in some parts of Argentina provided fundamental support for prices [1][3]. - **Price Movement**: Soybean meal rebounded significantly from its low yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather in South America in the future [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Import and Supply**: There was zero rapeseed import in January, and the average monthly import in February and March is 120,000 tons, much lower than the same period last year. The spot inventory pressure of rapeseed meal has been alleviated, but the supply is tight, and the spot trading is light during the off - season [1][6]. - **Long - term Supply**: Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending stocks, the easing of China - Canada trade relations and the reduction of the comprehensive import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% will significantly ease the domestic import supply in the long - term [1][6]. - **Price Outlook**: A cautious view is recommended for the bullish outlook on rapeseed meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Production and Export**: The latest data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of this month decreased significantly month - on - month, which is positive for market sentiment. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation in January [1][8]. - **Price Movement**: Palm oil continued to close higher yesterday. However, due to the recent high rebound, chasing high prices should be done with caution. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of Malaysian palm oil in January [1][8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: The January USDA data is slightly bullish for the ICE market. The decline of the US dollar index and the strength of the external bulk commodities provide support for the cotton market. The short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong [1][10][12]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic new cotton processing is basically completed, and the sales progress has slowed down. The raw material inventory pressure has further increased. The import side is gradually realizing the previous internal - external price difference pressure. On the demand side, domestic consumption is in the off - season, and textile mills are gradually on holiday at the end of the year, with weakening support. The market is also affected by the poor retail performance in December [1][11][12]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to adjust weakly. In the long - term, considering the reduction in planting and the expectation of replenishment at home and abroad, attention should be paid to the recovery performance after the release of negative factors [1][12]. Jujube - **Supply and Demand**: The acquisition in the production areas is over, and the market supply has increased. At the same time, it has entered the winter consumption peak season. The high inventory reduction has accelerated, which may promote a short - term rebound [1][14]. - **Price Outlook**: The spot market is flat. With the peak of new product listing and the consumption peak season, the futures market fluctuates more. In the context of a loose supply - demand pattern, the overall trend is expected to be under pressure, but short - term rebound opportunities can be noted in the context of the cooling peak season [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Short - term Situation**: As of now, the slaughter progress in the first 10 days of January is relatively slow. As the time approaches the end of January, the pre - festival slaughter pressure increases. The recent spot price rebound has increased the willingness of group farms to slaughter. The current high standard - fat price difference has driven the entry of second - fattening, and the contradiction in the spot market may be postponed [1][16]. - **Medium - term Situation**: The number of new - born piglets in steel - linked sample enterprises in December increased month - on - month, and the feed efficiency of piglets continued to increase in December. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is difficult to improve significantly [16]. - **Long - term Situation**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in the fourth quarter, but the de - stocking speed was slow, and the far - month contracts face certain hedging pressure. The industry has been in a loss situation for more than 17 weeks, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of losses [16][17]. - **Price Outlook**: As the end of January approaches, the slaughter pressure increases, and the price support becomes more difficult. The demand side has declined due to the end of the stocking market. The near - month contracts may face increasing pressure, and the far - month contracts are also under pressure in the short - term [1][17].

他接着呼吁加拿大政府支持通用汽车公司、斯特兰蒂斯集团、福特汽车公司、丰田汽车公司以及本田汽 车公司。而金斯顿所在协会主要代表前三家公司的利益。 【文/观察者网 张菁娟】加拿大近期宣布调整对中国电动汽车进口政策，国内有些人不乐意了。 据彭博社报道，当地时间1月21日，安大略省省长福特（Doug Ford）在汽车制造商与工人代表的簇拥 下，公开呼吁加拿大人抵制中国产电动汽车，即便中国车售价低于本土产品，也应坚决拒绝购买。 "抵制中国电动汽车，支持本土造车企业。"福特声称，对中国电动汽车及相关投资敞开大门，或将重创 加拿大本土汽车产业，同时冲击本地就业岗位。 加拿大汽车制造商协会主席金斯顿（Brian Kingston）则宣称，中国车企在加拿大生产的汽车背后，存 在"中国政府的大规模补贴"，此举"会给加美两国的持续合作带来风险"。 加拿大生产的汽车，绝大多数最终销往美国市场。福特声称，无论对加拿大、美国还是墨西哥来说，加 拿大对中国电动汽车政策的转向都对北美汽车市场有害无益。 当前，特朗普政府对加拿大汽车产业态度强硬，不仅坚称"美国不需要加拿大制造的汽车"，还通过加征 乘用车关税打击加方产业，并施压车企将业务转移至 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is generally in a weak and volatile state. The current spot price is supported by the shutdown of oil mills, but the expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and increased imports from Canada and Australia strengthen the long - term supply pressure, leading to market trading of the expectation of increased long - term supply [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, and the basis remains high, which supports the price. However, the expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and increased imports also increase the long - term supply pressure, causing the recent trend to be weaker than that of soybean and palm oil with intensified short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 8,948 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2,229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 639 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.9 Canadian dollars, and that of the active domestic rapeseed contract is 5,530 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is - 27 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is - 53 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 832 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 101 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 253,127 lots, down 469 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 1,001,168 lots, down 12,349 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are - 20,118 lots, up 639 lots; that of rapeseed meal are - 263,240 lots, up 9,509 lots. The warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 1,935 sheets, down 7 sheets; that of rapeseed meal are 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,886.25 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7,648.46 yuan/ton, up 11.47 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons. The annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and profit: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory and consumption: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region is 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 14.1 million tons, down 1.6 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal in the South China region is 27 million tons, up 1.3 million tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.55 million tons, up 0.37 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and sales: The monthly production of feed is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5,738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.07%, down 2.17 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 20.07%, down 2.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.36%, down 0.87 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 16.36%, down 0.85 percentage points [2]. Industry News - International market: On January 19th, ICE rapeseed futures showed mixed trends. The March contract fell 0.50 Canadian dollars to 639 Canadian dollars per ton. The high expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest continues to restrain international soybean prices. The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 reached the second - highest monthly record, which is positive for US soybeans [2]. - Domestic market: Currently, domestic oil mills are still shut down, supporting the current spot prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil. The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and the purchase of 60,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed by China increase the long - term supply pressure [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - **Oils and Fats**: Overall, there are more bearish factors. The upward trend of soybean oil is expected to slow down. For rapeseed oil, the near - term fundamentals are tight but supply has a large recovery expectation. Palm oil has both positive and negative factors, and it can be considered to go long after the market stabilizes. - **Beans and Meal**: The supply of beans in China is sufficient, and the price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak. Opportunities to short soybean meal and soybeans No.2 can be considered. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, but the domestic market has support. A bullish approach is recommended in the short - term. - **Soybeans No.1**: The valuation is not low and the upward drive is insufficient. It may continue to be weak in the short - term. - **Hogs**: The near - term spot pressure is relieved, and the far - month contract has a premium over the near - term. Investors can consider holding long positions in the far - month. - **Eggs**: Consumption is expected to improve, and supply pressure is relieved to some extent. Aggressive investors can consider going long in some contracts [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybeans No.1 05 | Loosening of traders' price - holding attitude, cautious downstream purchases | 4200 - 4250 | 4400 - 4420 | Sideways adjustment | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Soybeans No.2 05 | Sufficient domestic soybean supply, good growth of South American soybeans | 3380 - 3400 | 3500 - 3530 | Weak adjustment | Bearish operation | | Oils | Soybean Oil 05 | Weakness of adjacent oils, sufficient domestic supply | 7850 - 7880 | 8080 - 8100 | Sideways adjustment | Temporary wait - and - see | | | Rapeseed Oil 05 | Near - term fundamentals are tight but supply may recover | 8700 - 8720 | 9120 - 9150 | Sideways adjustment | Short at high prices | | | Palm Oil 05 | Support from US biodiesel policy and Malaysian palm oil exports, but high inventory suppresses prices | 8300 - 8350 | 8950 - 9000 | Sideways movement | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | Sufficient supply, large far - month transactions | 2600 - 2650 | 2780 - 2800 | Sideways decline | Bearish operation | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | Bearish sentiment due to Sino - Canadian talks | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Sideways adjustment | Bearish operation | | Energy and By - products | Corn 03 | Support from the decline of high - quality corn supply | 2160 - 2170 | 2330 - 2350 | Support exists | Bullish approach | | | Corn Starch 03 | Follows the cost of corn and has support | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Support exists | Bullish approach | | Livestock | Hogs 03 | Feed price rebounds, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Bottom - hunting in sideways | Light - position trial long | | | Eggs 05 | Decrease in new production and expectation of consumption peak | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Bottom - hunting in sideways | Buy at low prices | [9] b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Most varieties are recommended for wait - and - see, while for corn 3 - 5, it is recommended to short at high prices. - **Inter - variety Spread**: For some oil spreads and oil - meal ratios, it is recommended to take corresponding bullish or bearish operations, and some are recommended for wait - and - see [10][11]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The text provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors [12]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operation rate data of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanut, and peanut oil [17]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operation rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [18]. c. Livestock It provides daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and some key market data such as production cost, profit, and slaughter data [18][19][20][21]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes various charts related to the livestock end (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed end, which help to track the market fundamentals of different varieties [22][31][47]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, and corn [98][99]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities and position volumes of various varieties, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [103][104][105].