Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2420 - 2480. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain range - bound oscillations [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures have declined, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly. The spot premium has shown slight fluctuations, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has also fluctuated slightly [17][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bullish, the price trend on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and the future trend is expected to return to an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 18th to 26th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also fluctuated slightly [13]. - From November 18th to 26th, rapeseed meal futures prices fluctuated, and the spot price followed the fluctuations. The spot premium showed slight fluctuations [15][17]. - From November 17th to 26th, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0 [16]. - There are no ship arrival schedules for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [22]. - Oil mills' rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume remains at zero [24][26]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data analysis is provided other than the information that the main long positions have increased and funds have flowed out, which is considered bullish [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short term, affected by soybean meal and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and closes higher, driven by soybean meal and technical shock consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and maintains range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is gradually decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2530, and the basis is 99, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor [9]. - **Trading Data**: From November 17th to 25th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The trading volume of soybean meal varied, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main force has decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary - From November 17th to 25th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (both the main 2601 and the far - month 2605) and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated. The futures price generally showed a downward trend, and the spot price also fluctuated within a certain range [15]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics - From November 14th to 25th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased significantly. From November 19th, the warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0 [17]. 3.8 Other Information - Rapeseed meal futures have declined with fluctuations, and the spot price has followed the trend. The spot premium has fluctuated slightly. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly. - There is no shipping schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is also at a low level. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains at zero. - The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [18][20][23][25][27][35].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-11-25 重点关注 周一我的农产品网油菜籽开机率及各地区菜油粕库存量，中加贸易关系走向 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 40 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 9818 | 2431 | -15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2420 - 2480. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical shock consolidation, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season is over, but low inventory supports the market. The contract will maintain range - bound in the short term due to soybean meal influence [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2420 and 2480. The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals, with the price below the 20 - day moving average but trending upwards. The basis is 99, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish. The inventory decreased by 2.78% week - on - week and 20.45% year - on - year, also bullish. The main long positions decreased with capital outflow, but still considered bullish. The contract is expected to return to an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues may reduce short - term exports. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. Global rapeseed production is increasing, and the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From November 13th to 21st, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3061 to 3106 yuan/ton, and the trading volume from 7.47 to 40.05 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2510 and 2600 yuan/ton, with zero trading volume. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - From November 13th to 21st, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2412 to 2492 yuan/ton, and the far - month 2605 contract from 2367 to 2429 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was between 2510 and 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - From November 12th to 21st, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0. There was no change from November 12th to 18th, a decrease of 745 on November 19th, no change on November 20th, and a decrease of 2000 on November 21st [17]. - The price of imported rapeseed is affected by tariffs, with no shipping schedule forecast for November. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume remains zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has slightly declined, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-11-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2400至2460区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面， 加上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差101，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5.主力持仓：主 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Despite the end of the peak demand season for rapeseed meal, low inventory levels support the market. Influenced by soybean meal and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relations, the market will remain range - bound in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2400 - 2460 range oscillation. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, and the pending anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term outlook is neutral [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with supply expected to be tight in the short term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports, affecting domestic supply. The initial anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China is established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and potential geopolitical risks support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The initial anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season, and there is a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2540, with a basis of 109, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards, showing a neutral trend. - **Trading Data**: From November 10th to 18th, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated between 17.99 - 31.41 tons, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also had minor fluctuations [9][13][15]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main players has increased, but the capital has flowed out, showing a bullish signal [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is under less pressure as near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and coastal oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks and are mostly shut down. However, demand is weakening due to reduced aquaculture demand with temperature drops and the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybeans and soybean meal. The fall in US soybeans has dragged down domestic meal prices, and today rapeseed meal saw a decline with reduced positions. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On the supply side, near - month imports of rapeseed are structurally tightened, oil mills have used up their rapeseed stocks and are mostly shut down, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. But on the demand side, the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Recently, rapeseed oil futures prices have rebounded from low levels, with increased short - term volatility, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures decreased by 43 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal futures increased by 9880 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures decreased by 3.1 Canadian dollars/ton, and that of the active contract of domestic rapeseed futures increased by 80 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 45 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 9 yuan/ton. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and that of the rapeseed meal main contract decreased by 39 yuan/ton [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil decreased by 3228 hands, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 47901 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 4311 hands, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 23476 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 0, and that of rapeseed meal was 5323, unchanged from the previous day [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the import cost price of rapeseed decreased by 26.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 4.1, an increase of 0.09 [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 60 yuan/ton [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The predicted annual production of rapeseed globally was 90.96 million tons, an increase of 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed decreased by 13.13 tons, the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 2 tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 16 tons, a decrease of 5.57 tons [2]. - **Profits and Rates**: The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 28 yuan/ton, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 0.5 tons, the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0.5%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 0.52 tons, and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 0.3 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region decreased by 2.37 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 0.6 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region decreased by 0.32 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region increased by 0.1 tons [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 decreased by 0.53 tons, and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 decreased by 0.19 tons [2]. **Industry News** - On November 14 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the weakness of Chicago bean futures after the USDA supply - demand report, but the weekly line increased. The January rapeseed futures contract closed down 3.40 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 647.50 Canadian dollars/ton, and the weekly increase was 1.2% [2]. - The USDA lowered the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season from 53.5 bushels in September to 53.0 bushels, and the total production was expected to be 4.253 billion bushels, lower than the September forecast. However, the unexpected reduction in US soybean exports led to selling after the report [2]. - From August 1 to November 2, 2025, Canadian rapeseed exports were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Canada's bio - fuel production incentive plan uses rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports to Pakistan [2].

Report Overview - Report Title: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues may reduce short - term imports. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has found it to be established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From November 6th to 14th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3078 - 3106 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 - 31.41 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased from 442 to 506 yuan/ton [13]. - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 14th, the price of rapeseed meal futures main contract 2601 decreased from 2549 to 2490 yuan/ton, the far - month contract 2605 fluctuated slightly, and the rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) decreased from 2650 to 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From November 5th to 14th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2955 to 2745, with a decrease of 200 on November 6th and remaining stable thereafter [17]. - **Other Data**: Imported rapeseed arrivals have no shipping schedule forecast for November, and import costs are affected by tariffs. Oil mill rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [23][25][35]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal first rose and then fell, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market, and the short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern. It is rated as neutral [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2600, the basis is 110, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared to last week's 18,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 22,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal has fluctuated and declined due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, it has returned to a range - bound pattern in the short term, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. Affected by soybean meal, it will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2460 - 2520 range - bound pattern. The market is waiting for the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Spot demand is off - peak, but low inventory supports the market. It is affected by soybean meal in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with Ukraine's rapeseed production decreasing and Russia's increasing, offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From November 5th to 13th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3078 - 3092 yuan/ton, and the daily trading volume varied from 4.69 - 31.41 million tons. Rapeseed meal had no trading volume during this period, and the average price of soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased from 452 yuan/ton to 491 yuan/ton [13]. - From November 5th to 13th, the price of rapeseed meal futures main contract 2601 decreased from 2537 yuan/ton to 2492 yuan/ton, and the far - month contract 2605 fluctuated around 2400 - 2430 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) decreased from 2640 yuan/ton to 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - From November 4th to 13th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2955 to 2745 on November 7th and remained unchanged thereafter [17]. - Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with the spot price following the fluctuations, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated slightly [18][20]. - There is no ship arrival forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [23]. - Oil mills' rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low [25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions of rapeseed meal have decreased, but funds have flowed in [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2480 - 2540. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. Given the uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the market will fluctuate in the short term [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are both positive and negative factors in the current situation, and the future trend depends on the final result of the anti - dumping ruling and trade relations between China and Canada [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. It is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound trend in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday. Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and demand is decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but export is expected to decrease due to China - Canada trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, with the production in Canada higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition of Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Base difference**: The spot price is 2630, the base difference is 103, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared with last week's 1.8 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared with 2.2 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Transaction data**: From October 31 to November 10, the trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the average trading price showed certain fluctuations, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated slightly [13]. - **Price summary**: Rapeseed meal futures prices first rose and then fell, and the spot price followed the fluctuations. The spot premium fluctuated slightly [15][17]. - **Import situation**: There is no shipping schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [22]. - **Inventory of oil mills**: The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains low [24][26]. - **Aquaculture situation**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - From October 30 to November 10, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts showed a downward trend [16].