Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data from the United States has raised concerns about the future trajectory of the US dollar, leading to a significant decline in its value and prompting a reevaluation of its status as the global reserve currency [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - The core PCE price index for May slightly exceeded expectations, rising by 0.2% month-on-month, but consumer spending fell by 0.3%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [1]. - The final GDP figure for Q1 and new home sales data released on June 25 showed weak performance, further increasing expectations for interest rate cuts [1]. - Market data indicates a 27% probability of a rate cut in July and an 84% probability in September [1]. Dollar Performance Summary - The dollar index has experienced a continuous decline, dropping below the 97 mark, the lowest level since March 2022 [1]. - Year-to-date, the dollar has fallen by 10.34%, with a decline of 4.59% over the past two months [1]. Factors Influencing Dollar Decline - The strong performance of the euro, which accounts for over 60% of the dollar index, has significantly contributed to the dollar's weakness [2]. - A historic agreement among NATO members to significantly increase defense spending is expected to inject new momentum into the European economy, further boosting the euro [2]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Germany's fiscal stimulus measures are anticipated to increase investments in infrastructure and military sectors in Europe, supporting the euro's exchange rate [2]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Despite rising calls for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has not yet taken action, with Chairman Jerome Powell expressing concerns about inflation risks from trade wars [2][4]. - Powell's recent testimony indicated that while many paths are possible regarding rate cuts, there is no clear timeline, leading to market interpretations of a potential softening stance [4]. - Trump has publicly criticized Powell for not cutting rates, arguing that this has caused the US economy to lag behind Europe [4]. Concerns About Dollar's Reserve Status - Powell has countered concerns about the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, asserting that it remains the largest safe-haven currency globally [4]. - However, Powell has expressed worries about the unsustainable trajectory of US federal debt, which could materially damage the dollar's reserve currency status [5]. - The recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill" is projected to increase federal debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, reaching 125% of GDP, exacerbating the debt issue and potentially impacting the dollar's reserve status [5].

近期，美国经济数据频传利空，市场上对于美联储降息的预期愈发强烈，这一预期直接推动了美元汇率 的持续下滑，同时也引发了外界对美元作为全球储备货币地位的广泛担忧。 美元汇率的持续下跌，背后原因复杂多样，但其中最为关键的两点因素不容忽视。一方面，欧元的强劲 表现对美元构成了直接压力。由于欧元在美元指数中的权重超过60%，欧元的走强必然导致美元的相对 疲弱。近期，北约成员国达成历史性协议，计划大幅提升防务支出，这一举措为欧洲经济注入了新的活 力，进一步推动了欧元的升值。 另一方面，美联储降息的预期迟迟未能落地，也成为压制美元汇率的重要因素。美联储主席鲍威尔对于 降息的态度一直较为谨慎，他担忧贸易战可能带来的通胀压力，因此一直拒绝轻易降息。尽管在6月25 日的国会听证会上，鲍威尔对于降息的可能性有所松口，但市场普遍认为他的表态依然含糊其辞，未能 给投资者带来明确的指引。 特朗普对于鲍威尔坚持不降息的行为表示强烈不满，多次在社交媒体上对其施压。特朗普认为，欧洲已 经多次降息，而美国却迟迟未动，这导致美元汇率持续下跌，对美国经济构成了不利影响。 在美联储与特朗普关于降息预期的拉扯中，美国经济数据也呈现出矛盾复杂的局面。这使 ...

对美元是否被高估不持看法。 鲍威尔：美元仍然是全球的储备货币。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美元作为储备货币一个持久的平衡，预计将持续很长一段时间。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美元仍然是全球的储备货币。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights an increase in interest rate cut expectations, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East and supportive statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding a potential rate cut in July, positively impacting both US and Hong Kong stock markets [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index opened at 23,832 points and reached a high of 24,229 points, closing at 24,177 points, marking a daily increase of 487 points or 2.06% [2] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong market increased to 240.5 billion HKD, a rise of 21.1% compared to the previous day, with net inflows from the Northbound trading of 2.589 billion HKD [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Yunzhisheng (9678.HK) - Yunzhisheng is an AI solution provider focusing on conversational AI products, with business segments in smart living and smart healthcare, and has been active in the AI field since its establishment in 2012 [6] - The company reported revenue growth from approximately 601 million CNY in 2022 to an estimated 939 million CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% [6][7] - Despite revenue growth, the company has faced net losses, projected to be approximately 375 million CNY in 2022, 376 million CNY in 2023, and 454 million CNY in 2024, indicating ongoing financial challenges [6][9] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The AI solutions market in China is expected to grow from 42.2 billion CNY in 2019 to 180.4 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of 33.7%, and projected to reach 1,174.9 billion CNY by 2030 [7] - The market is highly fragmented, with Yunzhisheng holding a market share of 0.6%, ranking fourth among AI solution providers in China based on 2024 revenue [7] Group 4: Competitive Advantages and Opportunities - The company possesses strong technical capabilities, with its self-developed "Shanhai" model featuring 60 billion parameters, recognized for its performance in the medical field [8] - Its applications span various scenarios, including smart homes and healthcare AI, serving 166 hospitals and enhancing efficiency in data entry and quality control [8] Group 5: Financial Position and Risks - Yunzhisheng has faced continuous losses over the past three years, with a cash reserve of 156 million CNY by the end of 2024, indicating significant financial pressure [9] - The company faces intense competition from major players like iFlytek, Baidu, and Alibaba, which may lead to price wars and further pressure on profit margins [9] Group 6: IPO Information - The IPO subscription period is from June 20 to June 25, 2025, with trading expected to commence on June 30, 2025 [10] - The company has secured cornerstone investors, including SenseTime Group and Zhenyi Asset, with a total subscription of 95.5 million HKD, representing 29.65%-36.84% of the international placement [11] Group 7: Fundraising and Utilization - The expected net fundraising amount is 177 million HKD, with approximately 45.6% allocated to enhancing R&D capabilities and 47.0% for investing in emerging business opportunities [12][13]

美联储威廉姆斯：美元是全球储备货币。 ...

澳大利亚前总理顾问、昆士兰科技大学兼职教授鲍韶山（Warwick Powell）6月19日在《中国日报》撰文称，近 期，全世界密切关注中美贸易谈判进展。事实上，美国加征关税于事无补，再全球化大势不可逆转。 漫画作者：中国日报 石宇 如今，美国仍在生产高端设备和先进电子产品，并持续研发航空航天技术和军事技术。然而，这些行业是资本密 集型而非劳动密集型，而且无法填补自20世纪70年代以来日常消费品离岸生产所造成的空白。加征关税或许能满 足一些象征性的控制或报复需求，却无法将工业基础恢复到过去的水平。 再全球化大势不可逆转 文章进一步表示，世界其他地区正在适应美国的自相矛盾。美元武器化催生了缓步推进、深思熟虑的货币替代方 案。一些新兴经济体正在加速推动本币结算，并探索替代清算机制。如今，东盟成员国致力于降低在区域贸易中 对美元的依赖，尤其是在与中日韩的贸易中。 对于许多国家、尤其是"全球南方"而言，美国退出多边机构既带来了风险，也创造了新的空间。在新的基础设施 融资和货币互换协议的推动下，南南贸易的重要性日益凸显，"全球南方"由此降低了对西方市场和机构的依赖。 美国仍然是主要的消费市场，其进口额约占全球进口总量的1 ...

鲍威尔：美元将始终作为储备货币存在 金十数据6月24日讯，被问及关于美债是否是避险资产的问题，美联储主席鲍威尔回答称，是的，无论 如何，在未来很长一段时间内美元将始终作为储备货币存在。 ...

美债熬过了沉重的压力阶段。 美国国债市场功能良好，表现正常。 鲍威尔：美元将是长期性的全球性储备货币。 ...